Spring practice is still underway for many college football teams around the country, depth charts are in flux and the season is four and a half months away.
But college football coaching hot seats never truly cool off.
Patience is thinner than ever in the sport with the NIL/revenue sharing era making it more possible than ever to turn a program around quickly (if sufficiently supported and funded, that is). And, of course, Curt Cignetti’s magic act at Indiana has fans, boosters and athletic directors everywhere asking why their school can’t be next.
The first firings last season came just three weeks into the season with UCLA’s DeShaun Foster (in just his second year on the job and after just 15 total games!) and Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry. Many more followed.
So even though it’s early, let’s at least gauge the temperatures for the Power Four head coaches under the most pressure in 2026 — ranked accordingly.
1. Florida State’s Mike Norvell
Record: 76-49 in six seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 9.8
Reason: Norvell already pulled himself off the hot seat once before, rebounding from finishes of 3-6 and 5-7 to start his tenure by then going 10-3 and 13-1 the next two years. But in following with records of 2-10 and 5-7, it’s actually surprising Norvell is even back for 2026.
That 13-win 2023 Seminoles team remains the biggest snub of the College Football Playoff era, getting left out of the then-four-team field despite being undefeated, all because quarterback Jordan Travis, the ACC Player of the Year, sustained a season-ending fractured ankle in mid-November. (Even though the Seminoles went on to beat rival Florida and win the ACC championship game over Louisville without him.)
For whatever reason, the Florida State program hasn’t been the same since.
Norvell has done himself no favors with his quarterback evaluations. He brought in transfer DJ Uiagalelei in 2024 after he’d already underwhelmed at Clemson before a modest season at Oregon State. He passed for 4 TDs and 6 INTs in five games before a hand injury effectively ended his time as FSU’s QB. The team went 2-10, ramping the pressure up on Norvell.
He then brought in Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos — a mobile QB but a limited passer. He predictably wasn’t the answer either, tossing 15 TDs and 9 INTs during the 5-7 finish last season, as Florida State lost four straight games and seven of its final nine to tumble from a top-10 ranking to another dismal finish.
Now, Norvell’s fate likely rests on the arm of another limited passer in transfer Ashton Daniels, who has 24 career TD passes and 22 INTs in three seasons at Stanford and one at Auburn and is competing with untested second-year QB Kevin Sperry for the starting job.
Norvell is back in 2026 for one main reason — it would have cost a buyout of more than $50 million to fire him after last season. But Florida State fans and boosters aren’t going to sit idly through another frustrating fall.
2. Baylor’s Dave Aranda
Record: 36-37 in six seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 9.5
Reason: Aranda has by all measures been a bust at Baylor with just two winning seasons in six years, but really only one notable season — an outlier 12-2 finish and Sugar Bowl victory back in 2022. Since then, his teams have gone 6-7, 3-9, 8-5 and 5-7.
The Bears haven’t finished better than tied for fifth in the Big 12 the last four seasons.
An acclaimed defensive coordinator who was part of LSU’s last national championship, Aranda hasn’t even gotten that part right in Waco. Baylor ranked 122nd out of 136 FBS teams in points allowed last season (32.6 per game), was 81st in 2024 and116th in 2023.
Aranda has been on the hot seat for a few years now, but it was particularly underscored when Baylor president Linda Livingstone publicly explained (defended?) the decision to retain him for 2026 by citing “financial stewardship” and wanting to retain recruits. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of belief in Aranda himself.
Livingstone’s public statement of “not settling for mediocrity” doesn’t leave the school much room to withstand another subpar season under Aranda just to avoid paying the buyout on a contract that runs through the 2029 season.
3. Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell
Record: 16-21 in three seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 9.1
Reason: Fickell looked unlikely to survive the 2025 season after Wisconsin lost its first six games to Power Four opponents last season all by 14 points or more, including back-to-back shutout losses of 37-0 to Iowa and 34-0 to Ohio State.
After looking like an excellent hire following his incredible success at Cincinnati, Fickell has brought diminishing returns to the Badgers with finishes of 7-6, 5-7 and 4-8.
But as speculation about Fickell’s future swirled late last season, Wisconsin athletic director Chris McIntosh came out in support of his coach and pledged that the school would come up with more funding for the football program to be successful, essentially shifting the blame from Fickell to the new realities of college football.
But McIntosh, who also hired Fickell, resigned this week to take a job with the Big Ten.
It remains to be seen who Wisconsin will hire as its next athletic director after naming an interim for the time being, but it’s very possible the next AD doesn’t share the same patience in a coach he/she didn’t personally hire.
Fickell needs a big season in 2026.
4. South Carolina’s Shane Beamer
Record: 33-30 in five seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 7.5
Reason: Patience may be thinner than ever across college football, but that’s always been the case in the SEC.
Beamer created some buzz for himself and the program when he led the Gamecocks to 9 wins in 2024, including six straight (with a road win over rival Clemson) to close the regular season and at least put the team in conversation for the College Football Playoff.
But outside of that stretch, Beamer’s time in Columbia has been pretty mediocre with records of 7-6, 8-5, 5-7, 9-4 and 4-8 last fall — despite returning star quarterback LaNorris Sellers and high expectations. After opening the season ranked No. 13, the Gamecocks went off the rails, finishing 1-7 in the SEC.
Sellers regressed last season, seeing his completion percentage drop from 65.6% to 60.8% while throwing for just 13 TDs with 8 INTs, but he chose to return for another season at South Carolina — drawing headlines this week with his father revealing his son turned down $8 million to transfer elsewhere.
To support Sellers, South Carolina landed one of the most coveted offensive tackle transfers in the country in Jacarrius Peak (from NC State). The Gamecocks also brought in a top-20 recruiting class (No. 18, per On3’s rankings).
So now it’s on Beamer to show what he can make of it.
His Hot Seat Rating is lower than the coaches ahead of him on this list because it was just a year ago that he signed a contract extension through the 2030 season. His buyout was reported to be north of $27 million if he was let go last December, per USA Today, which actually might be considered reasonable per college football standards nowadays.
Meaning, that alone won’t keep him in place if the Gamecocks don’t bounce back big in 2026.
5. Maryland’s Mike Locksley
Record: 37-49 in seven seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 7.2
Reason: It ultimately comes down to how much do Maryland and its boosters actually care about trying to compete in football? Because the Terrapins haven’t been doing that for quite some time.
Maryland is 17-48 in Big Ten play in Locksley’s seven seasons, having never posted a winning record in the conference since joining it in 2014 (prior to his tenure).
The struggles predate Locksley, which is why he hasn’t been held accountable really to this point despite going 4-8 overall with a 1-8 Big Ten mark each of the last two seasons. In fact, he’s responsible for Maryland’s two best seasons — back-to-back 8-5 finishes (4-5 Big Ten) in 2022-23 — since the fateful decision to part ways with Ralph Friedgen 15 years ago.
(Friedgen is the most successful Terps football coach of the last 50 years, going 75-50 from 2001-10, winning at least 9 games in half of those seasons. He was fired despite going 9-4 in his final season and winning his second ACC Coach of the Year award, because of concerns about declining attendance, recruiting and fundraising. The program hasn’t really been relevant since, with the move to the Big Ten exasperating that reality.)
Locksley is in his third stint at Maryland after two tenures as an assistant coach (including for a couple years under Friedgen). He was the offensive coordinator at Alabama before returning to College Park, and he’s generally well-liked and regarded, but he may just not be cut out to be a head coach. He was 2-26 in two-plus seasons as New Mexico’s coach from 2009-11.
Maryland has an exciting young, local quarterback in true sophomore Malik Washington, but the Terps signed the 40th-ranked recruiting class last cycle (per On3) with just one signee rated higher than three-star status. And even with Washington delivering an at-times-exciting true freshman season (2,963 passing yards, 17 TDs and 9 INTs plus 4 rushing TDs), the Terps lost their final eight games and beat only one P4 opponent (Wisconsin).
If it’s more of the same in 2026, Maryland simply has to at least try a reset and fresh hire. Right?
6. North Carolina’s Bill Belichick
Record: 4-8 in one season
Hot Seat Rating: 6.5
Reason: Belichick’s seemingly ill-suited foray into college football at 73 years old after one of the most storied coaching careers in NFL history went even worse than doubters could have expected.
The Tar Heels won just two games over P4 competition — Stanford and Syracuse — and looked mostly overmatched much of the season.
All the while, scrutiny and drama followed Belichick.
From his not-surprisingly frosty relationship with the local media to awkward attention/distractions involving his young girlfriend Jordon Hudson to reports of his feud with the New England Patriots casting UNC in a bad light (with Patriots scouts unwelcome at Tar Heels practices and the team’s social media account noticeably refraining from posting about proud program alum and Pats star QB Drake Maye early last season before backlash won out).
Needless to say, that is not what North Carolina signed up for in hiring the coaching legend.
Belichick is back for a second season and has maintained his commitment to see through the Tar Heels’ turnaround, but if the situation stays rocky in 2026 — on and off the field — it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either side pull the plug on the experiment.
7. Cincinnati’s Scott Satterfield
Record: 15-22 in three seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 6.0
Reason: It looked like Satterfield had hoisted himself off the hot seat last season after a 7-1 start vaulted the Bearcats into the national rankings, but Cincinnati lost its final four regular-season games and then got blown out 35-13 by Navy in the Liberty Bowl to finish a deflating 7-6.
That came on the heels of 3-9 and 5-7 finishes in Satterfield’s first two seasons after taking over a program with high expectations coming off Fickell’s tenure and 53 wins over the previous five years.
To be fair, Satterfield took over as the program transitioned from the Group of 5 level to the Big 12, but nonetheless, the rough ending to last season undercut the goodwill he had built to start the fall. With star quarterback Brendan Sorsby bolting for a big payday at Texas Tech, the Bearcats are now counting on Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV in a pivotal season for Satterfield.
8. Colorado’s Deion Sanders
Record: 16-21 in three seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 5.5
Reason: Hey, Colorado got its return on investment in hiring Sanders three and a half years ago. Interest, investment and attention in the program immediately skyrocketed, he landed some elite recruits and transfers like Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and his son QB Shedeur Sanders and the 9-4 finish in 2024 is the program’s second-best in the last 20 years.
But with Hunter and Shedeur Sanders gone, the Buffaloes regressed to 3-9 (1-8 in the Big 12) with just one win over a P4 opponent last season.
Sanders has had consistent turnover with his coordinators (most by his doing) and staff, has relied more heavily than any program in the country on the transfer portal while notably not going on the road himself for high school recruiting, has been unable to build a competitive offensive line throughout his time there and has had former players take indirect shots at his staff’s coaching/leadership abilities since transferring out.
Sanders has proven his doubters wrong before and will try to do so again in 2026 as redshirt freshman Julian Lewis, a former five-star prospect, takes over at QB.
Maybe Sanders’ runway to get things going in Boulder lasts beyond 2026 regardless, as he signed a five-year, $54-million contract extension through 2029 just last year. Colorado may not feel it could buy him out and also make splash hire to help the program, knowing that Sanders at least keeps the Buffs relevant regardless.
But a repeat of last season would make it very hard to buy-in to the belief that he has the program moving in any upward trajectory at all and isn’t spectacle over substance.
9. Nebraska’s Matt Rhule
Record: 19-19 in three seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 5.0
Reason: Rhule probably isn’t in jeopardy of losing his job in 2026, but if he doesn’t get the program moving this year that seat is going to get real hot real quick.
Rhule’s run of mediocrity in Lincoln — 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 — is offset somewhat by the mess he took over after the program endured five straight losing seasons under Scott Frost. But this is a proud program with a fan base that recalls its national championship peak and believes it should still be nationally relevant in the current landscape of college football.
It wasn’t too long ago that Nebraska thought Bo Pelini’s run of winning 9 or 10 games all seven years of his tenure (2008-14) wasn’t good enough.
Rhule simply has to do a lot better than what he’s done so far, but he probably has at least two more seasons to show that progress because the program bizarrely gave him another extension last October, pushing his contract through 2032, to keep him bolting for another job. (It’s remains unknown how serious Penn State truly was in its interest in Rhule last year).
The Cornhuskers lost quarterback Dylan Raiola, a former five-star prospect who was viewed as the cornerstone of the program’s potential rebuild under Rhule, when he transferred to Oregon. They brought in UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea to replace him entering a pivotal season ahead. Star running back Emmett Johnson, meanwhile, is off to the NFL after carrying the Huskers’ offense in 2025.
It’s prove-it time for Rhule.
10. Boston College’s Bill O’Brien
Record: 9-16 in two seasons
Hot Seat Rating: 4.5
Reason: Boston College hasn’t been great at football in quite some time, but it was at least a consistently average .500 or slightly better program throughout the tenures of former coaches Steve Addazio and Jeff Hafley and stayed right at that level in O’Brien’s debut season with a 7-6 finish in 2024.
But last fall the Eagles tumbled to 2-10. After beating FCS-level Fordham to start the season, they lost 10 straight games before beating Syracuse in their finale.
Boston College ranked 123rd out of 136 FBS teams in scoring defense (giving up 32.8 PPG) and 85th in scoring offense (25.4 PPG).
Quarterback Dylan Lonergan transferred to Rutgers and leading rusher Turbo Richard transferred to Indiana while top receiver Lewis Bond is off to the NFL. Per On3, Boston College lost 29 transfers in all.
O’Brien announced he’s taking over offensive play-calling in 2026, while bringing in Division II transfer Mason McKenzie from Saginaw Valley State and Arkansas transfer Grayson Wilson to compete at quarterback.
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We intentionally did not feel Clemson coach Dabo Swinney merited inclusion on this list coming off his worst finish in 15 years (7-6). Even acknowledging valid criticisms that he’s been slow (and begrudging at best) to adjust to the transfer portal/NIL era of college football, saying his job is at all in jeopardy would be an overstatement regarding the most successful coach in program history who has won two national championships and had the Tigers in the College Football Playoff as recently as 2024.
