As our NFL Power Rankings roll on, we wonder if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are doomed to sink in 2026 and look at some other prime regression teams.
The fourth tier of our TeamFB7 NFL Power Rankings was too big to deliver in one piece — nine flawed teams with real playoff potential but not much projectable chance at winning it all.
Some of them are still building and climbing on their way up, looking to take another step forward and further momentum.
Others are patching holes and hanging on, hoping to stave off a true rebuild or reset.
That’s where we start with the second part of our Tier 4 breakdown …
But first, catch up on the series so far: Part 1 (1-5) | Part 2 (6-10) | Part 3 (11-16) | Part 4A (17-21)
For quick reference, here’s the ranking so far: 1. Los Angeles Rams, 2. Seattle Seahawks, 3. Buffalo Bills, 4. Baltimore Ravens, 5. Kansas City Chiefs, 6. San Francisco 49ers, 7. Philadelphia Eagles, 8. Houston Texans, 9. Denver Broncos, 10. New England Patriots, 11. Chicago Bears, 12. Detroit Lions, 13. Minnesota Vikings, 14. Los Angeles Chargers, 15. Green Bay Packers, 16. Jacksonville Jaguars, 17. Dallas Cowboys, 18. Cincinnati Bengals, 19. Washington Commanders, 20. Atlanta Falcons, 21. Pittsburgh Steelers.
JUMP TO: No. 22 | No. 23 | No. 24 | No. 25
NFL Power Rankings Tier 4: Flawed Teams With Playoff Potential (Continued)
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2025 Finish: 8-9, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: Todd Bowles got a stay of termination after the Buccaneers missed the playoffs last year, moving his record to 35-33 with one playoff win in four seasons.
But unfortunately for him, he now faces a make-of-break season with a less talented roster — at least offensively.
There’s no question quarterback Baker Mayfield was physically impaired the second half of last year, as he went from early-season MVP candidate to playing like one of the worst QBs in the league down the stretch (10 TD passes and 9 INTs over the last eight games).
If Mayfield is at full strength in 2026, that changes the dynamics substantially.
But he won’t have franchise legend Mike Evans to throw to anymore, after Evans spurned the Bucs’ competitive effort to re-sign him and bolted for the 49ers instead.
Who knows if Chris Godwin Jr. ever returns to his past form after playing in just 16 games over the last two seasons, and it’s too soon to know if Emeka Egbuka can be a true No. 1 WR after a 63-938-6 rookie season that tailed off considerably as Mayfield struggled.
Third-year WR Jalen McMillan will need to step up after posting a 37-461-8 line as a rookie before being limited to four games last season. Ditto second-year WR Tez Johnson (28-322-5) and third-round draft pick Ted Hurst (Georgia State) — a nice value pick at that spot, actually.
Getting a full season from running back Bucky Irving would make a big difference as well. He rushed for 1,122 yards and 8 TDs on 5.4 YPC as a rookie (with 47 catches for 392 yards) but dropped to 3.4 YPC last year while being limited to 10 games with ankle and shoulder injuries.
Tampa Bay made a nice underrated free agent signing in adding Kenneth Gainwell, who had a career-best season in Pittsburgh last year with 537 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC, 73 catches for 486 yards and 8 total TDs.
So there is a path to the Bucs being an above-average offense, but it literally will take all of those players being healthy and playing up to top expectations. Otherwise, the loss of Evans is going to be felt in a major way.
The other wrinkle is Tampa Bay bringing in new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson (most recently the Falcons’ OC), replacing one-and-done OC Josh Grizzard, who was fired.
Defensively, meanwhile, the Bucs begin a new era without future Hall of Fame linebacker Lavonte David, who retired after 14 seasons with the team.
They brought in veterans Alex Anzalone (95 tackles, 4 TFLs, 9 passes defended for the Lions) and Christian Rozeboom (122 tackles, 7 TFLs for the Panthers) and drafted Missouri’s Josiah Trotter in the second round. Those three join SirVocea Dennis, who broke through in his third season with 101 tackles and 10 TFLs but ranked 72nd out of 88 qualifying LBs by PFF’s grading.
Elite defensive tackle Vita Vea is back and the Bucs added former Panthers DT A’Shawn Robinson on a 1-year, $10-million deal.
The X-factor for the front seven and the defense in general, though, will be whether rookie edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., the No. 15 overall pick out of Miami, is ready to make an immediate impact in the NFL. The Bucs’ badly needed a pass rusher to pair with YaYa Diaby (the team leader with 7 sacks last season) and free agent pickup Al-Quadin Muhammad (coming off an unexpected eighth-year surge with 11 sacks for the Lions, who nonetheless let him walk for a 1-year, $4-million contract).
Bain was a great value at that pick as the unofficial cutoff between the top tier of edge rusher prospects and the second tier of options in this draft.
If Bain is an instant star and the linebackers are steady, the Bucs could surge after being just a middle-of-the-pack defense in 2025.
Tampa Bay lost its top cornerback Jamel Dean in free agency to the Steelers and will be asking a lot more from 2025 second-round pick Benjamin Morrison (who had a quiet rookie season in 10 games played) alongside returning starter Zyon McCollum, with fourth-round pick Keionte Scott (Miami) pushing Jacob Parrish at nickel.
But the secondary is stabilized by returning starting safeties Tykee Smith (100 tackles, 1 INT, 13 PDs) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (93 tackles, 2 INTs, 8 PDs.)
This season — and Bowles’ future — hinges in a big way on Bain and the health across the offense.
23. Indianapolis Colts
2025 Finish: 8-9, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: Indianapolis looked like an AFC contender through an 8-2 start last season before the wheels came off. QB Daniel Jones tried playing through a fractured left fibula before then tearing his Achilles tendon as the team closed the season with seven straight losses.
So one could say that with Jones due back this season (perhaps even for Week 1) that the Colts could pick up on their early-season success from 2025 again, but frankly, they had such a bad offseason it’s hard to see anything but overall regression.
Indianapolis broke the bank to keep wide receiver Alec Pierce (4 years, $114 million with $84 million guaranteed) even though he’s yet to even reach 50 catches in a season. Pierce led the NFL the last two seasons in yards per reception at 22.3 and 21.3 yards, respectively, which is why he was in high demand.
But making him one of the 12 highest-paid WRs in the league after a career-best season of 47 catches for 1,003 yards and 6 TDs in 15 games is … quite a leap of faith. (Not even factoring in his offseason ankle surgery after he reportedly played through nagging pain last year.)
Paying what it cost to retain Pierce is not necessarily even the issue, though — it’s the hidden costs of that deal given the Colts’ salary cap constraints.
Backing up the Brinks truck for Pierce meant the Colts had to dump Michael Pittman Jr.’s salary, taking a late-round draft pick swap from the Steelers, to accommodate Pierce’s extension. That leaves Josh Downs (58-566-4) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (ideally a WR4) to round out the top of the wide receiver depth chart.
Indianapolis should absolutely sign one of the remaining veteran free agent WRs to improve that unit — maybe there’s still hope there.
Second-year tight end Tyler Warren helps make up for that situation a little as well after posting a 76-817-4 line as a rookie.
And Jonathan Taylor remains a top 5 running back in the league after rushing for 1,585 yards and 18 TDs on 4.9 YPC (plus 46 catches for 378 yards and 2 TDs).
Losing right tackle Braden Smith to the Texans hurts, with 2025 fourth-round pick Jalen Travis set to replace him after making four starts as a rookie.
Our bigger concern with the Colts, though, is actually on the defensive side.
Indy was already a bottom-12 team in terms of both points (24.2/game) and yards (349.8/game) allowed last season, and then it traded away top linebacker and tackling machine Zaire Franklin to the Packers in another related cap-space-saving move, let fellow starting linebacker Germaine Pratt become a free agent and lost top safety Nick Cross in free agency.
They were the team’s three leading tacklers.
To fill the void at linebacker, the Colts signed former Cardinals LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (a full-time starter for the first time last year in his sixth NFL season) on a cheap 1-year deal and got lucky in the draft when Georgia’s C.J. Allen fell to them at pick 53.
To fill the void at strong safety, the Colts drafted LSU’s A.J. Haulcy in the third round and will hope he can win the job, as the rest of the options are uninspiring.
They also have just one player on the roster who had at least 5 sacks last season (EDGE Laiatu Latu — 8.5) plus free agent signing Arden Key, who had 4 sacks in 12 games for the Titans. And the Colts released longtime cornerback and defensive leader Kenny Moore II this month after he requested a trade, leaving the depth chart especially thin beyond star Sauce Gardner and well-traveled veteran CB Charvarius Ward.
This is just a poorly built roster.
It seems highly possible the Colts are even worse defensively in 2026, Jones needs time to adjust in returning from the Achilles injury, the right side of the offensive line is worse and the receiving corps is way worse.
Not a great recipe.
24. New Orleans Saints
2025 Finish: 6-11, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: How much one believes in the Saints really hinges on how much one believes in second-year quarterback Tyler Shough.
Our position on that should be clear by the No. 24 ranking.
Because the Saints, overall, did a lot of good things this offseason to substantially upgrade the offense around Shough.
They splurged on free agent running back Travis Etienne, a good fit on multiple levels as a Louisiana native. Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards on a respectable 4.3 YPC, added 292 receiving yards and scored 13 total TDs for the Jaguars.
It seems only a matter of time before the Saints formally move on from former star RB Alvin Kamara, who rushed for a career-low 3.6 YPC while only playing in 11 games last year. Etienne is a fine replacement.
The Saints already had a WR1 in Chris Olave (career-high 100 receptions for 1,163 yards and 9 TDs in 2025) and went and got potentially another in selecting Arizona State star WR Jordyn Tyson with the No. 8 overall pick in the draft.
(Not to mention intriguing upside picks in third-round tight end Oscar Delp, from Georgia, and fifth-round wide receiver Bryce Lance, from North Dakota State.)
That’s a lot of fun pieces for offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore to deploy.
The Saints also upgraded the offensive line, giving former Bills left guard David Edwards a 4-year, $61-million deal to join the team’s other four returning starters up front.
On defense, New Orleans signed linebacker Kaden Elliss — the Falcons’ leading-tackler who actually started his career as a Saints’ seventh-round pick back in 2019. He replaces departed free agent Demario Davis.
The team lost top cornerback Alontae Taylor in free agency too and will look for 2025 fourth-round pick Quincy Riley to step in to a starting role.
Overall, the defense should be solid enough after giving up the ninth-fewest yards in the league (299.8) and ranking middle of the pack in allowing 22.5 PPG.
And the Saints have some residual momentum after winning four of their final five games last season.
So why are they so low here?
It could prove to be a mistake for sure, but hear us out …
The late winning streak aside, the reality is New Orleans’ only wins came against the stumbling Giants, bumbling Titans, tanking Jets, free-falling Buccaneers and Jekyll and Hyde Panthers (twice).
All those offensive upgrades are nice but also direly needed as the Saints scored the fifth-fewest points in the league last year (18.0 per game). So it’s not as if Tyson and Etienne put this team over the top — they merely give the offense a chance to be adequate and perhaps league average.
And then there’s Shough.
The 2025 second-round pick who played for three schools and didn’t have a breakout season until his sixth year of college football (with both injuries and ineffectiveness holding him back to that point).
Shough made nine starts as a rookie, completed 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTs and somehow finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
It’s all about how much stock one puts in how he finished the season — that small sample size against mostly bad/checked-out competition.
Shough looked like a game manager QB at best coming out of college, and we’re still not convinced he’s anything better than Discount Derek Carr.
He’ll get every chance to prove any doubters wrong this year, but this feels like a team with an 8-9 ceiling in the best-case scenario.
25. Carolina Panthers
2025 Finish: 8-9, won NFC South, lost in wildcard round
2026 Outlook: One of our prime regression teams, which is saying a lot considering the Panthers finished with a losing record as is last year despite backing into the playoffs through a three-way tiebreaker atop the lackluster NFC South.
There’s just not a lot to like about this offense.
Former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has improved over his three NFL seasons and posted career-bests in 2025, completing 63.6% of his passes for 3,011 yards, 23 TDs and 11 INTs. But he still threw for under 200 yards in 12 of his 16 games and his consistency week to week remains a hindrance for the Panthers.
More than 25% of his passing yards came in two games last season — for real.
Meanwhile, yes, the Panthers have the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (70 catches for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs), but that’s about all they have.
Jalen Coker (33-394-3 in 11 games) and Xavier Legette (35-363-3) aren’t even WR3s on a good team. Maybe third-round pick Chris Brazzell II, the wide receiver from Tennessee, will usurp those two this season.
Tommy Tremble (27-249-2) ranked 47th among NFL tight ends in receiving yards last season despite being the team’s leader at the position.
And with 1,000-yard rusher Rico Dowdle off to the Steelers in free agency, the Panthers turn back to Chuba Hubbard as their feature back. He rushed for 511 yards and 1 TD on 3.8 YPC last season but did have 1,195 yards and 10 TDs on 4.8 YPC in 2024.
Either way, this is a dreadfully uninspiring offense — arguably the worst in the entire NFL along with the Dolphins.
So while the Panthers invested big in upgrading their defense — signing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips for 4 years and $120 million and linebacker Devin Lloyd (off a breakout season with the Jaguars) for 3 years and $42 million — the question remains, where are the points coming from?
It’s honestly hard to figure out how they went 8-9 last year and then put a scare into the Rams in the wildcard round. Don’t bet on a repeat.
