Will Josh Allen win his second NFL MVP award in 2026? Will Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes win their third? It’s time to set the stage and break down the top MVP candidates for the upcoming season.
Is the NFL season still a month and a half away? Well, yeah.
Does that mean it’s too early to start debating MVP candidates, when training camps haven’t even started? Nah.
It’s never too soon to at least lay the groundwork for a season that will at least start with more than a dozen legitimate, viable candidates to push for the MVP award.
Injuries will inevitably weed out some potential contenders along the way. There could be off-the-radar surprises.
But let’s map out the potential path for the 10 players in the best position to make a run at it in 2026 while keeping in mind that the NFL MVP has gone to a quarterback the last 13 seasons and 18 of the last 19 years.
(MVP betting odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Top 10 NFL MVP Candidates For 2026
1. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen
The case here is easy to make — Allen is arguably the best quarterback in football.
To start, here’s how he finished in the MVP voting the last six years, starting in 2020: 2nd, X, 3rd, 5th, MVP, 3rd.
More impressively, he did that with a mid-tier wide receiver corps at best.
When Allen won his MVP in 2024, his top receivers were slot weapon Khalil Shakir, erratic rookie Keon Coleman, veteran journeyman Mack Hollins and eight games of a washed-up Amari Cooper, along with the tight end tandem of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Last year, he managed to finish third in the voting with Shakir again miscast as a WR1 and Kincaid (in 12 games) and Knox rounding out the Bills’ top 3 pass-catchers. (With 13 games from an erratic-as-ever Coleman and 12 games from middling veteran Joshua Palmer).
Allen’s 3,668 passing yards were his fewest since his first two NFL seasons, but he posted a solid 25/10 touchdown/interception ratio and rushed for 579 yards and 14 TDs while putting the Bills on his back week after week on the way to a 12-5 record.
So just consider what might be possible now that he has perhaps the best collection of passing targets of his nine-year career?
Buffalo acquired DJ Moore from the Bears in a trade, giving Allen the potential for the first true No. 1 WR he’s had since the final seasons of Stefon Diggs’ prime.
Moore is a bit of a wildcard, sure. His production and target share declined last season in Chicago (50 catches for 682 yards and 6 TDs) as the Bears and a new coaching staff prioritized their exciting young corps of talent, but he is still just 29 years old and posted a 96-1,364-8 line as recently as 2023 (and 98-966-6 in 2024).
Moore is now reunited with Bills head coach Joe Brady, who was his offensive coordinator for two of his best seasons with the Carolina Panthers.
Even if Moore can’t recapture his peak production, he is nonetheless a substantial upgrade for the Bills in giving Allen a proven playmaker on the outside and taking some pressure off Shakir (one of the better slot weapons in the league). Meanwhile, Brady is giving the talented but frustrating Coleman (the 33rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) a fresh start, the team drafted intriguing UConn WR Skyler Bell (101-1,278-13 last fall) and that elite tight end tandem is back along with NFL rushing leader James Cook.
The coaching change from stodgy, conservative Sean McDermott to promoting Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach could also lead to a more aggressive passing attack.
Allen has proven ultra-durable and is one of the most unique talents in the league with the physical rushing element he brings to the quarterback position.
This is a Super Bowl-or-bust season for the Bills, and Allen is our favorite to win his second MVP.
(DraftKings agrees as Allen is a +550 favorite to win MVP)
2. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
What’s more dangerous to the rest of the NFL than an Andy Reid offense with Mahomes at the reins?
An Andy Reid offense that solved its running back problem this offseason, with an extra-motivated Mahomes at the reins as he returns from knee surgery and the first sub-elite season of his career.
Anyone want to bet against that guy? Exactly.
The Chiefs went 6-11 last year after winning at least 11 games in each of Mahomes’ first seven years as a starter, reaching the AFC championship game each of those seasons, making five Super Bowls and winning three of them.
For the first time in a long while, the Chiefs and Mahomes have something to prove in 2026.
The two-time MVP was limited to 14 games before tearing his ACL, ending an already frustrating season as he passed for 3,587 yards, 22 TDs and 11 INTs with 422 rushing yards and 5 TDs.
For that to be the worst season of Mahomes’ career …
He has been resolute on his desire to be back on the field for Week 1, reiterating that as his goal last week.
After having to make up for one of the most plodding rushing attacks in the league last year with the Kareem Hunt/Isiah Pacheco tandem, Mahomes will now have the support of reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III — the team’s splashy free agent RB acquisition.
Future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, who turns 37 years old in October, might be on his last legs, and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy have been frustrating/underwhelming.
But Mahomes hasn’t had a true stud receiver since Tyreek Hill left five years ago, and he’s found a way to be elite all the same.
Now, he has a fresh surge of motivation to prove he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
DraftKings has Mahomes with the fourth-best MVP odds (+1000) behind Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and tied with Justin Herbert, but again, we’ll gladly bet on the two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP with something new to prove.
3. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
Jackson checks a lot of the same boxes as Mahomes this year.
He too is a two-time NFL MVP (2019 and 2023). He too is coming off a disappointing injury-marred season in which his team underwhelmed and missed the playoffs. And the Ravens also upgraded their collection of offensive playmakers this offseason.
When Jackson is at his peak, he’s as tough to defend as any QB of his era.
The 29-year-old is already the NFL’s all-time leader in rushing yards by a quarterback with 6,522, passing Michael Vick two seasons ago.
He’s also a remarkably efficient passer. In 2024, Jackson passed for 4,172 yards, 41 TDs and 4 INTs, rushed for 915 yards and 4 TDs and didn’t win MVP, finishing second to Allen.
Last year was a different story.
Jackson missed three games early in the season with a hamstring injury and upon returning looked hesitant to maximize his running ability. Then a back injury late in the season sidelined him for nearly two full games and riled up his critics as the Ravens clung to fleeting playoff hopes before ultimately falling short.
He finished with 2,549 passing yards, 21 TDs and 7 INTs and rushed for 349 yards and 2 TDs.
Jackson could be even higher on this list (and is per the official betting odds), but there are some unknown variables to take into consideration.
Will he confidently return to being more aggressive as a dual-threat talent? He totaled between 139-176 rushing attempts in every season in which he played at least 15 games — but just 67 in 13 games last year. Or will he take a more cautious approach coming off the injuries, like Philadelphia dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts did to his and the Eagles’ detriment in 2025?
The Ravens also have a new coaching staff with defensive-minded Jesse Minter replacing long-time head coach John Harbaugh and 30-year-old Declan Doyle replacing veteran offensive coordinator Todd Monken in just his second season as an NFL play-caller (after serving as the Chicago Bears’ OC last year).
And Baltimore lost perennial Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum, replacing him with recently signed veteran Ethan Pocic, who has 97 career starts with the Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks but is coming off a torn Achilles tendon.
On the other hand, the Ravens upgraded their wide receiver corps, drafting high-upside talents in USC’s Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round and Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt in the fourth. Both have the potential to substantially outplay their draft slot and give Baltimore much needed extra weapons around WR1 Zay Flowers and veteran tight end Mark Andrews. (With star running back Derrick Henry also, of course, back to lead the ground attack).
(DraftKings gives Jackson the second-best MVP odds at +800.)
4. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Sure, Stafford is now 38 years old and the second-oldest starting quarterback in the league behind Aaron Rodgers.
But it was just last season that Stafford delivered the finest season of his career, passing for an NFL-leading 4,707 yards and 46 TDs with just 8 INTs for the best offense in football, winning his first MVP award.
And yet DraftKings gives him the 9th-best odds in the MVP race at +1400?! Madness.
Stafford has all of his playmakers back on offense with Puka Nacua one of the very best wide receivers in the league and in the peak of his prime, veteran Davante Adams one of the better WR2s at this point of his career, tight ends Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee among the more solid duos around and ditto for running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
It’s disappointing and confounding that the Rams wasted the No. 13 pick in the draft on future QB stash Ty Simpson and the No. 61 pick on TE Max Klare when they are in Super Bowl-or-bust win-now mode and needed a No. 3 WR/slot weapon.
But nonetheless, what’s changed from last year to think Stafford can’t be elite once more for what could/should again be the top offense in the NFL?
Actually, there is one big change for the Rams — the defense significantly upgraded with the trade for reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year/future Hall of Fame edge rusher Myles Garrett and the additions of the former Chiefs cornerback duo of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to shore up the weakness in the secondary.
If the Rams are notably improved defensively, they could challenge for the best record in football — which only helps Stafford’s MVP case in the end.
5. Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams
That’s right, we’re going against the grain again and leaning on gut feel a bit here.
DraftKings has Williams tied for the seventh-best MVP odds (+1300), but there’s no denying the former Heisman Trophy winner is an ascending star in the league after his breakout sophomore campaign for the Bears in 2025.
In his first season with offensive guru Ben Johnson as his head coach, Williams passed for 3,942 yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs with 388 rushing yards and 3 TDs while leading the Bears to 11 wins and their first NFC North title since 2018.
Williams then threw for 361 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in rallying Chicago past the rival Green Bay Packers in the wildcard round and led the Bears to overtime in the divisional round before coming up just short against the Rams.
Along the way, he led the Bears to an improbable seven fourth-quarter comeback wins last season, showing his poise under pressure and penchant for seizing the moment.
In just his second year in the league.
Williams still has so much room to improve, too. That’s the most encouraging component here.
His 58.1% completion percentage (down from 62.5% as a rookie) was the worst of any NFL QB who played more than 10 games last year.
That will improve.
While he threw 5 INTs in two postseason games, he’s traditionally been very protective of the football going back to his college career at USC (and Oklahoma) and with just 13 INTs in 34 regular-season NFL games.
Williams was also gelling with a young trio of top targets last year in second-year WR Rome Odunze (limited to 12 games by injury), rookie WR Luther Burden III and rookie TE Colston Loveland, who both surged over the second half of the season.
The best is absolutely still to come for that group — maybe as soon as 2026.
If healthy, Williams should be in for the best season yet of his career, now with a full year-plus in Johnson’s offense, a growing comfort and connection with his intriguing trio of emerging pass-catchers and just the natural maturation that could be expected from an incredibly talented young NFL QB.
Don’t be surprised if Williams is right in the thick of the MVP race in 2026.
6. Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Burrow is a popular preseason MVP pick. DraftKings gives him the third-best odds (+850) behind Allen and Jackson.
It’s easy to see why. When healthy, Burrow is one of the best in the business, and the Bengals are still built around their passing attack with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins forming one of the best WR duos in the league.
Burrow missed nine games last year with a turf toe injury but looked like his usual self upon his return, finishing with 1,809 passing yards, 17 TDs and 5 INTs in eight games.
In his last fully healthy season in 2024, he led the NFL in completions (460), passing attempts (652), passing yards (4,918) and TDs (43) with just 9 INTs … and yet the Bengals still went 9-8 while missing the playoffs.
That’s the issue here.
Burrow is undeniably awesome — the Bengals collectively haven’t been.
They’ve gotten too much credit this offseason for trading the No. 10 pick in the draft for All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and signing veteran DT Jonathan Allen to shore up the middle of the defensive line.
That’s all well and good, but …
They whiffed in replacing star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, egregiously overpaying for Seahawks rotational EDGE Boye Mafe and his 2 sacks in 2025, taking a chance on second-round draft pick Cashius Howell at the back end of the run on EDGE prospects and hoping 2025 first-round pick Shemar Stewart can emerge after playing just eight games as a rookie.
Worse, they did nothing to upgrade the worst group of linebackers in the league or substantially improve the secondary.
The Bengals gave up the second-most yards (380.9 per game) and third-most points (28.9 per game) last season and didn’t do enough to truly overhaul that unit.
So what’s going to be so dramatically different in 2026 for a team that has missed the playoffs three straight years (including with a fully healthy Burrow in 2024)? Cincinnati went 5-3 in Burrow’s starts last season, 9-8 in 2024 and 5-5 in his starts in 2023.
Also, it has to be noted that Burrow has played more than 10 games in just half of his six NFL seasons, so even counting on a full season from the QB is a gamble.
As great as he is, he’s only received MVP votes in two seasons — finishing fourth in 2022 and 2024.
Ultimately, the MVP goes to the best player on one of the best teams in the league. Burrow will very likely be one of the best players in the league this year, but it’s simply hard to see the Bengals being one of the best teams in the league collectively.
7. New England Patriots QB Drake Maye
Much like Stafford’s odds seem to discount his 2025 feats for no justifiable reason, the same could be said for slotting Maye seventh on this list. (DraftKings has him with the sixth-best odds at +1100.)
That could well prove to be a mistake.
Maye finished second in MVP voting last year — just 1 first-place vote and 5 overall points behind Stafford — in one of the closest finishes in recent memory.
In just his second NFL season, Maye led all NFL quarterbacks in completing 72% of his passes, ranked fourth with 4,394 passing yards and threw for 31 TDs with 8 INTs. He also showed he’s one of the more mobile QBs in the league with 450 rushing yards (fourth-most among QBs) and 4 scores.
He led the Patriots to one of the most unlikely Super Bowl appearances in quite a while, helping New England go from 4-13 his rookie season to 14-3.
And he did all of that with a solid but unspectacular collection of receivers in past-his-prime Stefon Diggs and complementary players like Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas.
There are a couple of reasons to explain why Maye isn’t higher on the MVP odds (or on this list).
He wasn’t quite as impressive in the postseason as questions mounted about wear and tear on his throwing shoulder, and the Patriots are a prime regression team in 2026 after playing an unusually favorable schedule in 2025 on their impressive run and having almost everything break right.
But that last point had nothing to do with Maye’s performance — the Pats benefitted more defensively from playing an unlikely number of backup or straight bad QBs. So that shouldn’t be held against Maye, other to suggest it’s one reason New England might not win as many games overall in 2026.
That should all be offset by a more pertinent factor, though
Maye has a much better collection of targets to work with this year, as the Patriots pulled off the big A.J. Brown trade with the Eagles to land a coveted in-his-prime star WR1 while also signing productive former Packers WR Romeo Doubs as a free agent, moving the returning WRs (who are all back but Diggs) down a spot in the pecking order.
For one of the best downfield passers in the NFL, the impact of adding Brown can’t be overstated.
If Maye’s shoulder is a non-issue, as has been reported, there’s no reason he can’t match his 2025 numbers — or even exceed them.
Honestly, after the top 4 on this list, the rest is all tightly-bunched with minimal gap in our perspective between Williams and Maye (and beyond).
More simply, it would not be a surprise in the least if Maye wins the MVP this year.
8. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Herbert is one of the more complicated star quarterbacks in the NFL.
His arm talent is up there with any passer in the game, as he has a 5,000-yard season on his resume and a 163/58 career touchdown/interception ratio.
And his toughness is unassailable.
Over the last two seasons, Herbert has been sacked more times (95) than any quarterback other than Geno Smith — and that’s not counting 10 sacks in two postseason games in that time. He still played every game last season — including playing four-plus games with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand — before sitting out Week 18 with the Chargers’ playoff spot secured.
Yet, for all of his obvious attributes, Herbert is 0-3 in the playoffs through six seasons with just 2 TDs and 4 INTs in those games. He’s never finished higher than ninth in the MVP voting (twice).
He seems too talented for that to be the reality.
The reason for optimism that Herbert could take a leap in 2026 is largely driven by the Chargers’ beleaguered offensive line being much (much, much) better. Projected starting offensive tackles Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon in his knee in the preseason) and Joe Alt (two high-ankle sprains) — expected to be one of the better bookend tandems in the league — played a combined six games in 2025 and the line fell apart as a result.
Even still, Herbert got the team to 11 wins and a playoff berth while getting knocked silly week after week.
Slater and Alt are healthy and ready for 2026. The Chargers also signed free agent veteran center Tyler Biadasz (84 starts and one Pro Bowl appearance in six seasons for the Cowboys and Commanders) and guard Cole Strange (a starter for the Dolphins last season) and drafted guard Jake Slaughter in the second round out of Florida.
If Los Angeles can better protect Herbert, they are a dark horse Super Bowl contender and the star QB might just find himself in line for a career-best season.
That’s apparently not a bold opinion as DraftKings has Herbert tied for the fourth-best MVP odds with Mahomes at +1000.
9. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Prescott has only received MVP votes in two of his 10 NFL seasons, but he did finish second in the voting in 2023 when he passed for 4,516 yards, 36 TDs and 9 INTs.
When healthy for a full season, Prescott is a safe bet to finish among the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns in a loaded Cowboys offense.
He was third in passing yards (4,552) and fourth in TDs (30) last season and has thrown for at least 4,449 yards and 30 TDs in his last four full seasons with at least 16 games.
Dallas is set to again be among the best offenses in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as good as any wide receiver duo in the NFL.
But despite ranking second in total offense (391.9 YPG) and seventh in scoring (27.7 PPG) last year, Dallas went 7-9-1 and missed the playoffs.
The Cowboys were essentially a twin of the Bengals, undermining their elite and incredibly expensive offense with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Unlike the Bengals, the Cowboys might just have done enough to make a real difference on that side of the ball in 2026.
First-time defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a wildcard but an intriguing one after a fast rise the last five years as an assistant coach for the Broncos and Eagles.
Meanwhile, Dallas splurged on free agent safety Jalen Thompson (from the Cardinals), traded for edge rusher Rashan Gary (Packers) and linebacker Dee Winters (49ers), and used early draft picks on Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (No. 11 overall), UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence (No. 23) and Michigan linebacker Jaishawn Barham (third round) while hoping for a full season from injury-plagued star cornerback DaRon Bland after two frustrating limited seasons.
If the defense is serviceable, a standard Prescott season could have the Cowboys contending in the NFC East and the QB firmly in the MVP conversation.
(Prescott is tied for the seventh-best MVP odds on DraftKings at +1300.)
10. Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons ago and finished seventh in MVP voting when he passed for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs and 9 INTs, rushed for 891 yards and 6 TDs, led Washington to a surprising 12-5 record and then an even more surprising NFC championship game appearance.
With the young QB limited to seven games last year due to a relentless slew of injuries — most notably the dislocated non-throwing elbow that he reaggravated late in the season — the Commanders dropped to 5-12.
There were other factors in Washington’s slide, too — an aging defense finished among the worst in the NFL and top wide receiver Terry McLaurin was limited to 10 games by injury.
The Commanders invested aggressively in upgrading the defense this offseason, spending big on edge rushers Odafe Oweh (4 years, $96 million after a breakout season with the Chargers) and K’Lavon Chaisson (after a breakout season with the Patriots) along with linebacker Leo Chenal (from the Chiefs), defensive tackle Tim Settle (Texans), cornerback Amik Robertson (Lions) and safety Nick Cross (Colts). And then they drafted Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles 7th overall.
If coach Dan Quinn can fix the defense with those upgrades and Daniels stays healthy, Washington will have every chance to prove 2024 wasn’t a fluke outlier.
And while the dropoff in 2025 was about more than just Daniels’ injuries, he would reap a major share of the credit if the Commanders pull off a major turnaround, building his MVP case.
Daniels is a nice value bet, tied for the 11th-best MVP odds at +2000.
