The defending Super Bowl champion and the favorite for this year’s title are just two of the teams in the NFC West. It makes projecting the division’s win totals plenty intriguing this season.
The NFC West should be one of the NFL’s most compelling — and potentially most profitable — divisions when evaluating season win totals.
The Seattle Seahawks enter as defending Super Bowl champions with most of their championship foundation intact, but repeating will require them to overcome several meaningful free-agent departures. The Los Angeles Rams remain legitimate contenders with the talent, coaching and experience to pursue another championship at SoFi Stadium, where they could attempt to win their second home-stadium Super Bowl in six seasons.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have strengthened an already dangerous offense by adding Mike Evans, giving their quarterback another proven difference-maker capable of changing coverages and transforming critical downs.
Those three teams set an exceptionally high standard last season, combining to finish 38-13 during the regular season while each earning a playoff berth. Producing three postseason teams for a second consecutive year will be difficult, but the division possesses enough established talent to make it realistic.
Arizona occupies a different stage of the competitive cycle. Rather than chasing immediate contention, the Cardinals appear to be playing the long game at quarterback, potentially positioning themselves to make their most consequential move in 2027.
Other Divisions: AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North
Over-Under Projections for the NFC West in 2026
Can Seattle survive its offseason losses and defend its title? Are the Rams capable of winning another Super Bowl on their home field? How dramatically will Evans elevate San Francisco’s offense? And can Arizona exceed modest expectations while building toward its future?
The answers will determine more than the NFC West standings. They will shape four fascinating win-total decisions in a division that offers championship aspirations, playoff pressure and long-term uncertainty.
Yes, this should be fun.
Here’s how all four teams stack up, and which ones are positioned to go Over or Under their number (odds via DraftKings):
Arizona Cardinals Over 3.5
New coach, new quarterback, same old uncertainty for the Cardinals. After three seasons under Jonathan Gannon and seven years with Kyler Murray, Arizona is beginning another organizational reset. That may not create much enthusiasm, but it also explains why the Cardinals’ win total is only 3.5, and why the Over offers value.
The arrival of Mike LaFleur will generate skepticism. He is best known as Matt LaFleur’s younger brother, did not call plays as the Rams’ offensive coordinator and was fired after two difficult seasons running the Jets’ offense. Still, Mike LaFleur spent three years working inside Sean McVay’s system, gaining experience with its formations, pre-snap motion and play-action concepts.
He does not need to turn Arizona into an offensive powerhouse. He only needs to establish structure, manufacture easier throws and keep the Cardinals functional enough to steal close games.
Here is the clip of #Cardinals HC Mike LaFleur saying Arizona moved on “pretty quickly” from Kyler Murray, in which K1 responded to that below 👇 https://t.co/9uJJlOV2BP pic.twitter.com/4DyFAaCdgA
— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) August 12, 2026
Jacoby Brissett provides stability during that transition. He is a journeyman, but that description can obscure his value as an experienced bridge quarterback. Brissett started 12 games last season after Murray suffered a season-ending foot injury, giving him familiarity with the roster and the organization.
He generally protects the football, operates within the offense and avoids the reckless mistakes that cause rebuilding teams to defeat themselves.
Arizona also does not need a dramatic breakthrough to cash this wager. The Cardinals can finish 4-13 and still reward Over bettors. That is an extremely low threshold in a league built around parity, injuries and weekly volatility. One divisional upset, two victories over fellow rebuilding teams and another win created by turnovers or special teams would be enough.
Los Angeles Rams Over 11.5
The Rams have spent the last two postseasons learning how narrow the margin is between elimination and a championship. They lost 28-22 at Philadelphia in the divisional round after a furious comeback fell short, then suffered a 31-27 road defeat against Seattle in last season’s NFC Championship Game. Both times, the Rams were eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl champion.
Those results reveal why Los Angeles can exceed 11.5 victories. This is not a speculative contender attempting to manufacture a championship window. The Rams have already demonstrated they can compete with the NFL’s best teams, and their aggressive offseason suggests they believe the final pieces are now in place.
Everything begins with quarterback Matthew Stafford. Concerns about his back surrounded him entering 2025, but he responded with an MVP season, leading the league with 4,777 passing yards while establishing a career high with 46 touchdown passes. Stafford remains capable of controlling games before the snap, exploiting favorable matchups and delivering in high-leverage situations.
His supporting cast gives the Rams one of football’s most complete offenses. Puka Nacua is an explosive, high-volume target, while Davante Adams provides elite route running, red-zone production and another dependable option on critical downs. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum form a physical, versatile backfield capable of keeping the offense balanced and protecting Stafford from excessive pressure.
Gimme that ‼️
📺 @CBSLosAngeles | 📲 https://t.co/UrUy0EOL9I pic.twitter.com/j65XJezoWs
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) August 22, 2026
The most meaningful improvements came defensively. Adding Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett from Cleveland, while former Kansas City cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson should transform the secondary, allowing Los Angeles to become more aggressive with its coverages and generate additional pressure through its front.
Winning 12 games will be challenging inside an NFC West featuring defending champion Seattle and a dangerous San Francisco roster. But the Rams possess the quarterback, playmakers, coaching and improved secondary necessary to survive that schedule.
San Francisco 49ers Under 9.5
The 49ers’ greatest opponent may not be Seattle, Los Angeles or anyone else on their schedule. It may be their inability to remain healthy.
San Francisco was once again ravaged by injuries last season, continuing a troubling pattern that has repeatedly disrupted Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch’s championship plans. Whether the problem involves training methods, workload management, the playing surface or simple misfortune, the organization must determine why so many foundational players continue to miss time.
Christian McCaffrey was unexpectedly one of the few prominent 49ers to play every game last season. That reliability cannot automatically be projected forward, however. His potential Hall of Fame career has already been interrupted by significant injuries in five different seasons, and his age, workload and physical running style make another healthy year far from guaranteed.
#49ers George Kittle looks ready to go 💪
🎥 @CamInman pic.twitter.com/K4YqTHZzoi
— 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙎𝙁𝙉𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨 (@TheSFNiners) August 23, 2026
The injury concerns extend throughout the roster. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Ricky Pearsall and Mykel Williams all missed meaningful time. San Francisco survived long enough to win a wildcard game in Philadelphia, but even that victory came with an enormous price when Kittle tore his Achilles. His recovery creates uncertainty around one of the offense’s most important players and emotional leaders.
The addition of Evans gives Purdy another proven weapon, but it does not resolve concerns about durability, offensive-line depth or an aging foundation. Evans can improve the passing game, yet his presence will mean less if Purdy is pressured, McCaffrey is unavailable or Kittle is not fully recovered.
San Francisco also plays in what could be the NFL’s strongest division. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion, while the Rams possess a roster capable of winning the NFC. Six demanding divisional games reduce the 49ers’ margin for error.
Reaching 10 victories requires more than talent. It demands sustained health, dependable depth and consistency against a difficult schedule.
Seattle Seahawks Over 10.5
Sam Darnold‘s 2025 season completed one of the NFL’s most remarkable career transformations. Once treated as a quarterback nobody wanted, Darnold followed Minnesota’s 14-3 campaign in 2024 by winning 14 games with Seattle, joining Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to produce consecutive 14-win seasons with different teams.
That accomplishment was validated in the postseason. Darnold remained somewhat turnover-prone during the regular season, throwing 14 interceptions, but he did not throw a pick in three playoff games. When the stakes increased, he protected the football, trusted the structure around him and helped Seattle complete its championship run.
The Seahawks will look different offensively after Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed a three-year, $43.05 million contract with Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet‘s recovery from a late-season torn ACL creates additional uncertainty in the backfield, potentially removing both components of Seattle’s punishing rushing attack from last season’s formula.
That changes Darnold’s responsibilities, but it does not destroy the offense. He still has Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the league’s premier receivers and a target capable of controlling games from multiple alignments. Seattle can build its passing attack around Smith-Njigba while gradually reconstructing the running game.
Applied PRESSURE 😤 @jamie_sheriff @connor_otoole_
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/dT1OGLLu77
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) August 24, 2026
The primary reason to back Over 10.5 victories, however, is the defense. Seattle dominated New England in a methodical Super Bowl, keeping the Patriots scoreless until the fourth quarter and demonstrating it could control a championship game without requiring an offensive shootout. That unit returns almost entirely unchanged in 2026, preserving the personnel, communication and physical identity that powered the title run.
Repeating as champion will be difficult, especially in an NFC West featuring the Rams and 49ers. Winning 11 regular-season games is a considerably lower threshold.
W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at TeamFB7.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.
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