With another loaded college football Saturday slate nearing kickoff, it’s time for some final thoughts on the biggest matchups, score predictions and a Heisman Trophy race reset after Miami’s upset loss to Louisville on Friday night.
Before getting to predictions, first a look back on the big game from Friday night that will rock the rankings and Heisman race.
Fallout From Louisville’s Upset Win at Miami
The No. 2-ranked Miami Hurricanes are no more — no longer undefeated that is and surely no longer No. 2 when the rankings reset Sunday.
Unranked Louisville held on for a 24-21 upset win while delivering a severe setback to Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck’s Heisman campaign as Beck tossed four interceptions in the loss.
The final pick came with 32 seconds left and Miami driving with a first-and-10 from the Louisville 31 when Beck’s pass was deflected at the line and landed in the hands of the Cardinals’ T.J. Capers.
Beck and Alabama QB Ty Simpson entered the week as co-favorites in the Heisman race at +350 odds, per BetMGM. Beck had tossed only three interceptions all season to that point, but he now has a meager 11/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season. Miami (5-1) doesn’t play another ranked team (per the current AP top 25) until a potential ACC championship matchup, so it’s hard to envision a path for Beck to surge back in the Heisman hunt.
Miami already has notable wins over ranked Notre Dame and South Florida teams, though, so the Hurricanes shouldn’t tumble too, too far in the rankings. That will depend on what other shakeup comes nationally Saturday.
Louisville, meanwhile, may have already been one of the best unranked team before Friday night. The Cardinals (5-1, 2-1 ACC) took their lone loss by three points to a ranked Virginia team. They only had one Power Four win, though, against Pittsburgh, after rolling through a soft non-conference schedule. Now, they have their signature win and will jump into the rankings on Sunday — likely inside the top 20.
Quarterback Miller Moss, the USC transfer, passed for 248 yards and 2 TDs in the biggest win over his college career, star receiver Chris Bell had 9 catches for 136 yards and 2 TDs, and running back Isaac Brown rumbled for 113 yards on 15 carries.
It was a deserved spotlight for Bell, who has been one of the best receivers in college football this year and now ranks fourth nationally in receiving yards per game (106.3). He has 44 catches overall for 638 yards and 6 TDs.
Heisman Race Reset
With Beck tumbling likely out of the Heisman race altogether (all the way to +2500 odds), the clear favorite becomes Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, whose odds shot up to +225 after Beck’s bad night.
Simpson, a fourth-year junior, has passed for 1,678 yards, 16 TDs and 1 INT in his first year as a starter while leading No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC) to three straight wins over ranked opponents (at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt and at Missouri). He leads the Crimson Tide into a big SEC showdown Saturday at home against No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1).
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who opened the week with +550 Heisman odds and is now +300, would be the top challenger as he’s led the No. 3 Hoosiers to a 6-0 start while passing for 1,423 yards, 17 TDs and 2 INTs plus 2 rushing TDs. Indiana scored the big win over then-No. 3 Oregon on the road last week and hosts Michigan State on Saturday.
Indiana doesn’t play another ranked opponent until a likely Big Ten championship game opportunity, while Alabama has a loaded schedule the rest of the way with the No. 11 Vols on Saturday night, and No. 10 LSU, No. 14 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn still to come.
Given that, if Simpson gets the Tide to the SEC championship game he should lock up the award, but if the Tide stumbles at some point that could be Mendoza’s opening.
The players with the next-best odds entering the week were Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1400) and Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin (+1500).
Score Predictions for AP Top 25 Matchups Saturday
Here are our picks for the biggest games Saturday …
(All times Eastern; all betting lines from ESPN Bet)
No. 10 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 17 Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1), 12 p.m. on ABC
-Vanderbilt is a 1.5-point favorite — its first time being favored over LSU since 1948 — but we’re picking LSU. The Tigers’ backs are against the wall and the pressure is mounting on Brian Kelly, as his offense hasn’t topped 20 points vs. a Power Four opponent yet. Vanderbilt is a great story, but LSU breaks through with its best performance of the season today. LSU, 27-20.
No. 12 Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0 ACC) at Duke (4-2, 3-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN
Georgia Tech is a great story and off to its best start since 2011, but an early win over Clemson (which was ranked then but is not now) is inflating the Yellow Jackets’ ranking. Their other wins are against Colorado, FCS-level Gardner-Webb, Temple, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. Duke started 1-2 but has reeled off three straight wins by double figures — over NC State and on the road at Syracuse (38-3) and Cal (45-21). Duke is a 3.5-point favorite with the line jumping a point since Friday, and we like the Blue Devils here. Duke, 42-29.
No. 14 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3), 12:45 p.m. on SEC Network
The Sooners looked so bad in their 23-6 loss to Texas last week that it’s hard to shake. South Carolina opened the season ranked No. 13 before losses to Vanderbilt, Missouri and LSU. But don’t count the Gamecocks out entirely, especially at home. Oklahoma is a 4.5-point favorite. We’re taking the Sooners, but not with great confidence. Oklahoma, 27-24.
No. 1 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at Wisconsin (2-4, 0-3), 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Ohio State has the best defense in college football and Wisconsin has … not much going for it. Let’s not overthink this. The Buckeyes are a 25.5-point favorite. Ohio State, 44-13.
Michigan State (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) at No. 3 Indiana (6-0, 3-0), 3:30 p.m. on Peacock
Michigan State hasn’t beaten a Power Four opponent yet and got run off the field at home by UCLA last week as the Jonathan Smith Era teeters on the brink of total collapse. Indiana is on a national championship quest and just gave coach Curt Cignetti a monstrous contract extension and race to keep him in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are 27.5-point favorites. Indiana, 51-17.
No. 4 Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at Arkansas (2-4, 0-2), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN
Here’s the thing — Arkansas looked a little rejuvenated last week in its first game under interim head coach Bobby Petrino, losing 34-31 at Tennessee. Texas A&M, a 7.5-point favorite, scored an early win over Notre Dame but has had a light SEC slate so far with wins over Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida. There’s mild upset potential here, but we won’t go that far. Texas A&M, 41-33.
No. 5 Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 0 Georgia (5-1, 3-1), 3:30 p.m. on ABC
Ole Miss beat Georgia, 28-10, last year in Oxford, but the Rebels haven’t won in Athens since 1996, losing their last six visits there. Ole Miss is also coming off its worst game of the season, holding on for a 24-21 win at home over lowly Washington State in a curious performance. Georgia hasn’t been dominant by any means, losing at home to Alabama, needing over time to beat Tennessee and falling down 10-0 last week at Auburn before rallying. Georgia is favored by 7.5, which seems like a lot, but we do like the Bulldogs here. Georgia, 34-31.
No. 7 Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) at Arizona State (4-2, 2-1), 4 p.m. on FOX
The Red Raiders have dominated every team they’ve played, winning each game by at least 24 points. But they’re expected to start backup QB Will Hammond, who was just 7-of-16 passing for 42 yards and an interception last week in a win over Kansas after replacing injured starter Behren Morton (leg). Arizona State, meanwhile, is expected to get QB Sam Leavitt back after getting blown out by Utah last week without him. The Sun Devils won the Big 12 last year and are in must-win territory now, but the Red Raiders have looked so good this year it’s hard to pick against them. They’re still 6.5-point favorites even without Morton. Texas Tech, 44-37.
No. 22 Memphis (6-0, 2-0 AAC) at UAB (2-4, 0-3), 4 p.m. on ESPN
Memphis is trying to be the best Group of Five team that finds its way into the 12-team College Football Playoff field. UAB just fired head coach Trent Dilfer last week. Let’s not overthink this. The Tigers are a 21.5-point favorite. Memphis, 49-17.
No. 8 Oregon (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at Rutgers (3-3, 0-3), 6:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Bank on the Ducks being extremely dialed in and motivated after taking their first loss last week to Indiana and tumbling in the rankings. Dan Lanning will be out for style points today as a 17.5-point favorite. Rutgers hasn’t beaten a Power Four opponent yet. Oregon, 48-21.
Washington State (3-3) at No. 18 Virginia (5-1), 6:30 p.m. on The CW
Whatever magic the Cougars found last week in that narrow loss at Ole Miss, we’re still not buying it. This team lost by 49 points to North Texas. Virginia is a 17.5-point favorite and coming off a bye. Virginia, 34-17.
No. 21 Texas (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (2-3, 0-3), 7 p.m. on ESPN
The Longhorns were left for dead after an ugly start to the season, but that 23-6 win over Oklahoma showed how good they can be when their defense delivers and QB Arch Manning does just enough. Texas is a 12.5-point road favorite and our pick as well. Texas, 27-14.
No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0), 7:30 p.m. on ABC
Alabama is looking like the class of the SEC after reeling off three straight wins over ranked opponents. Tennessee has been a rollercoaster, pushing Georgia to overtime in a loss and being pushed for four quarters by the likes of Mississippi State and Arkansas. We trust Ty Simpson to further his Heisman campaign and take care of business. The Tide is an 8.5-point favorite. Alabama, 38-28.
No. 20 USC (5-1) at No. 13 Notre Dame (4-2), 7:30 p.m. on NBC
The Fighting Irish doesn’t have much margin for error if it wants to make it back to the playoffs after reaching the national title game last year. Notre Dame has lost to both ranked opponents it’s faced so far — Miami and Texas A&M — and needs this one bad. But so too does USC, which is trying to shake two meager seasons and show that it’s on the rise again in coach Lincoln Riley’s fourth year. Notre Dame is a 10.5-point favorite and that’s too much against dynamic QB Jayden Maiava and a top-3 offense in the country. We’re calling the upset. USC, 34-32.
Florida Atlantic (3-3, 2-1 AAC) at No. 19 South Florida (5-1, 2-0), 7:30 p.m. on ESPNU
South Florida showed a lot last week in a 63-36 domination of a very good North Texas team on the road. The Bulls have only lost to Miami so far and may be the best Group of Five team. They’re 20.5-point favorites for a reason. South Florida, 45-21.
No. 16 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-3, 0-3), 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network
Hugh Freeze may be coaching for his job over the second half of this season. The Tigers have been competitive but not quite good enough so far in SEC play. Missouri was 5-0 before a competitive loss to Alabama last week and is a 1.5-point favorite this week, but Auburn needs this one and rises to the occasion at home. Auburn, 28-27.
No. 23 Utah (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) at No. 15 BYU (6-0, 3-0), 8 p.m. on FOX
The “Holy War” rivalry carries big stakes as the in-state rivals are both in the CFP discussion and Big 12 hunt. BYU is unbeaten, but its best win was over Arizona in overtime last week. The Cougars look vulnerable and lack a potent passing attack if they are forced to play from behind. Utah has been excellent outside of a lopsided loss to unbeaten Texas Tech. Utah is a 3.5-point favorite and our pick. Utah, 27-17.
No. 24 Cincinnati (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (1-5, 0-3), 8 p.m on ESPN2
Oklahoma State has lost five straight, Cincinnati has won five straight and has everything at stake as it looks to stay near the top of a crowded Big 12 race and keep CFP hopes alive. The Bearcats are 23.5-point favorites. Cincinnati, 41-20.