Leading up to kickoff of the 2026 NFL season, TeamFB7 is going in-depth on each team from its strengths and weaknesses to breakout players, intriguing rookies and overall predictions. We’re working backward from our preseason power rankings with a few updates along the way. Next up are the Atlanta Falcons at No. 21.
Building a contender in the NFL is no simple task — ask the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders — and yet the basic formula is really no mystery.
Steps 1A/1B: Hire the right head coach and find a top-10-12 NFL quarterback one way or another, first, foremost and without substitute or exception.
Step 3: Build an advantage along both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Step 4: Fill in the rest.
What makes that such a tough compound to engineer, of course, is the scarcity of the two most important elements required — and the range of hazardous chemical reactions that come from a faulty mix of alternatives.
(Did we exhaust the Chemistry 101 metaphor enough, or is there room for a joke about the Jets sending their fans scrambling to the eye-wash station last season while watching the combination of seemingly overmatched first-time head coach Aaron Glenn with predictably underwhelming QB Justin Fields? Too much? Fair enough …)
Well, the Atlanta Falcons hit on half of Step 1 when they hired Kevin Stefanski as head coach this offseason.
Stefanski was twice named NFL Coach of the Year during his six seasons with Cleveland. Since the Browns returned to the NFL as an expansion team in 1999, they’ve produced four winning seasons and three playoff appearances in 27 years. Stefanski was the coach for two of those playoff campaigns and the two best records in that time — 11-5 in 2020 and 11-6 in 2023.
He was one of the most coveted coaches on the market this year after Cleveland fired him and should be an immediate upgrade over former Falcons coach Raheem Morris, especially for a team that boasts its best assets on offense with elite running back Bijan Robinson, a legit No. 1 wide receiver in Drake London and one of the league’s most productive tight ends (at least last season) in Kyle Pitts.
Except, the Falcons only finished half of Step 1 …
Falcons Are The Last NFL Team To Announce Its Starting Quarterback
The outlook for this team would be much higher if it had managed to sign free agent quarterbacks Kyler Murray or even Malik Willis or simply held onto Kirk Cousins or traded for Mac Jones or Jameis Winston.
Yeah, we’re really stretching there, admittedly, but any of those options seemingly would have been better than the decision to sign Dolphins castoff Tua Tagovailoa to compete with incumbent Michael Penix Jr.
At least Cousins went 5-2 down the stretch last season after taking over for an injured Penix and nearly rallied the Falcons into the playoffs, while Tagovailoa was getting benched in Miami after throwing a career-high 15 interceptions (second-most in the NFL) in only 14 games.
To be honest, we didn’t hate the Tagovailoa pickup for Atlanta in the moment. He was the clearly the lesser of the free agent QB options noted, but there was a chance he just wore out his welcome in Miami and would benefit from a reset and fresh start. Surely, he’d be a more stable option than Penix, who is 4-8 as a starter (in 14 total games) over his first two NFL seasons while completing just 58.9% of his passes with 12 TDs and 6 INTs.
And yet, Tagovailoa struggled to win a preseason QB competition in which he was ostensibly the only true participant, with Penix recovering from a torn ACL, not cleared for full team activities until late August and unable to play in any preseason games.
It wasn’t until Monday, six days before the Falcons’ opener vs. the Steelers, that the team finally announced Tagovailoa as its starter.
Tagovailoa played two series in Atlanta’s first preseason game and three in its third tune-up, completing a combined 10 of 13 passes for 117 yards and 0 TDs while fumbling twice and losing one. He did lead a touchdown drive in the last exhibition before coughing up the fumble the next possession.
More concerning, he showed almost no ability or confidence to move the ball downfield, relying on short completions and check-downs.
However it shakes out once Penix is fully ramped up, the quarterback situation dims the Falcons’ overall outlook that would otherwise be quite intriguing with Stefanski and all those top-end offensive playmakers.
Atlanta Falcons Reset
2025 Finish: 8-9, missed playoffs
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski, first season (45-56 in six seasons as Browns HC, 1-2 in playoffs)
Hot Seat Meter (0-10): 0
Offensive Coordinator: Tommy Rees, first season (previously OC for Notre Dame, Alabama, Browns)
Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich, second season (previously Jets DC and interim HC)
Best Offseason Move: Signing RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts to extensions
The Falcons didn’t make many notable moves in free agency, but there was a reason for that. They were busy committing major money to keeping their offensive stars in place into the future.
In June, Drake London signed a four-year, $141-million contract extension through 2030 (worth up to $150 million with incentives) that kicks in after the fifth-year option on his rookie contract this year. That ranks third among WRs in average annual value at $35,263,500 behind only Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($42.15 million) and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase ($40.25 million).
That same month, the Falcons gave Kyle Pitts a three-year, $54-million extension through 2028 (replacing his franchise-tag designation for this year) that ranks third in AAV for tight ends at $17,666,667 behind San Franciso’s George Kittle ($19.1 million) and Arizona’s Trey McBride ($19 million).
And then in August after a brief “hold-in” at the start of training camp, Bijan Robinson signed a three-year extension through 2030 worth up to $75 million with incentives that will officially tack on to the final year and subsequent option year of his rookie contract. The $66.75 million in base value makes him the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL by AAV after being almost immediately surpassed by Detroit’s three-year, $67.5-million extension for Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Falcons also doled out a rich extension for left guard Matthew Bergeron in August with the deal totaling $96 million over four years. The AAV of $24 million ties him for second on the list of highest-paid offensive guards behind only Tennessee’s Peter Skoronski ($25 million).
“It’s all guys that we believe in, all guys that fit who we are,” Stefanski said.
This gives the offensive-minded Stefanski an extended runway to find a long-term solution at quarterback, if it’s not ultimately Penix, and build the offense in his vision.
(All contract values referenced from Spotrac.com.)
Worst Offseason Move: Not replacing departed free agent LB Kaden Elliss
With most of the Falcons’ spending done in-house, they didn’t (or couldn’t) invest much in an experienced veteran to replace Kaden Elliss, who led the team with 107 tackles while adding 10 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and interception and 6 passes defended. Elliss signed a three-year, $33-million deal with the Saints.
That leaves Divine Deablo and Christian Harris atop the depth chart.
Deablo is in his fifth season as an NFL starter and second with the Falcons after starting out with the Raiders. He received a strong evaluation from PFF, which graded him 11th out of 78 eligible inside linebackers last season as he tallied 73 tackles, 5 TFLs and 7 PDs in 13 games.
Harris, meanwhile, lost his starting job in Houston last season after being limited to three games in 2024 by a calf injury. He played just 93 snaps across 15 games in 2025 for the Texans. The Falcons signed Harris on a cheap one-year, $2.75-million deal.
Behind those two, next in line is a pair of rookies in fourth-round pick Kendal Daniels (out of Oklahoma) and sixth-round pick Harold Perkins Jr. (LSU).
That’s mildly concerning.
…
But, really, the worst development this offseason for the Falcons was second-year edge rusher James Pearce Jr. — the 26th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft who led the team with 10.5 sacks as a rookie — getting arrested in February for a domestic dispute with his ex-girlfriend. The NFL suspended him eight games this season as a result.
Atlanta Falcons Roster Breakdown
Biggest Strength: Offensive playmakers
It really is a shame the Falcons don’t have a better quarterback situation because there are few setups in the league more conducive to high-level offensive success with Stefanski as head coach, a solid offensive line that ranked ninth in the NFL to start the season by PFF and then this collection of playmakers.
Robinson, the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, is in the conversation for top running back in the game.
The fourth-year back just delivered back-to-back seasons of 1,456 and 1,478 rushing yards and set career-highs last season with 5.2 yards per carry and 79 receptions for 820 yards. He had 15 combined TDs in 2024 and 11 last year and hasn’t missed a game in his career yet.
London, the 8th overall pick in the 2022 draft, was limited to 12 games last season mostly due to a PCL strain in his knee, but he still managed 68 catches for 919 yards and 7 TDs. He set career-highs in 2024 with 100 catches for 1,271 yards and 9 TDs and probably hasn’t come close to his ceiling yet.
We’ll go even further and say he might still be the most underrated star wideout in the league.
And Pitts, the 4th overall pick in 2021, set career-highs in 2025 with 88 catches and 5 TDs while his 928 receiving yards were the most since he had 1,026 as a rookie.
If we’re picking nits, the rest of the WR depth chart is underwhelming with eighth-year pro Olamide Zaccheaus back where he started after playing for the Eagles, Commanders and Bears the last three seasons, and Jahan Dotson on his third team in five seasons after stints with Washington and Philadelphia as well.
But keep an eye on third-round rookie Zachariah Branch, a potential steal out of Georgia at pick No. 79, who could emerge as a dynamic slot option for the Falcons.
Biggest Weakness(es): Quarterback, linebacker and edge rusher
We’ve already hit on this enough, but just to summarize …
Penix, the 8th overall draft pick in 2024 out of Washington, simply hasn’t looked confident or comfortable in his first two NFL seasons, and the season-ending ACL injury last year is just the latest in a long line of significant injuries for the QB going back to college. He had tantalizing arm talent in college, but it hasn’t carried over in any meaningful way to the NFL.
And Tagovailoa, the 5th overall selection in 2020, simply hasn’t been the same player since mounting concussions jeopardized his career. Both last season and this preseason, he’s not at all resembled the QB who led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards in 2023.
Other weaknesses on the Falcons roster include the aforementioned thin depth chart at linebacker and edge rusher.
With Pearce missing the first eight games and the Falcons’ other 2025 first-round pick Jalon Walker (5.5 sacks as a rookie) sustaining a devastating season-ending torn ACL last month, the defense’s top options on the edge are Cameron Thomas (6.5 career sacks, now on his fourth team in five NFL seasons), ninth-year veteran Samson Ebukam (just 2 sacks last season for the Colts after missing 2024 with a torn Achilles) and 34-year-old Za’Darius Smith (showing declining production in recent years for multiple teams since last making the Pro Bowl in 2020 with the Vikings).
That might just be the weakest unit in the league until Pearce returns.
Consequently, the Falcons’ official team depth chart lists Brandon Dorlus as the starting defensive end, but Dorlus mostly operated on the interior of the line last season while breaking out with 8.5 sacks in his first full NFL season. He played both defensive end and on the interior in college at Oregon, and perhaps moving him outside more will offset the lack of dynamic options a bit.
Most Intriguing Rookies: Branch and CB Avieon Terrell
We already touched on Branch, the electric receiver from Georgia who had 81 catches for 811 yards and 6 TDs last season for the Bulldogs. He has very little standing in his way of earning a role in the offense as a speedy, shifty, yards-after-the-catch slot weapon.
And on defense, the Falcons’ top 2026 draft pick Avieon Terrell, No. 48 overall out of Clemson, is reportedly in line to open the season as the team’s starting nickel while lining up in the same secondary as his older brother, outside corner A.J. Terrell.
Breakout Player: LB Divine Deablo
Deablo has been around for a while, starting 55 games over five seasons for the Raiders and Falcons after being drafted in the third round out of Virginia Tech in 2021. But with Elliss leaving, he could really emerge on a different level now as the leader in the middle of the Atlanta defense, wearing the green dot on his helmet as the defender designated to communicate with the sideline.
He was also named one of five team captains.
The sixth-year linebacker should be in for a career-best season if he stays healthy.
MVP Pick: RB Bijan Robinson
Robinson truly might be the most talented running back in the NFL, and it’s exciting to see what an offensive-minded head coach in Stefanski can do with his all-around elite skill set.
He already led the NFL in combined rushing/receiving yards last season with 2,298 and is still just entering his prime.
Atlanta Falcons 2026 Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| Week 1, Sept. 13 | at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 2, Sept. 20 | vs. Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 3, Sept. 24 (Thursday) | at Green Bay Packers | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 4, Oct. 5 (Monday) | at New Orleans Saints | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 5, Oct. 11 | vs. Baltimore Ravens | 8:20 p.m. |
| Week 6, Oct. 18 | vs. Chicago Bears | 1 p.m. |
| Week 7, Oct. 25 | vs. San Francisco 49ers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 8, Nov. 1 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 9, Nov. 8 (in Madrid, Spain) | vs. Cincinnati Bengals | 9:30 a.m. |
| Week 10, Nov. 15 | vs. Kansas City Chiefs | 1 p.m. |
| Week 11 | BYE WEEK | |
| Week 12, Nov. 29 | at Minnesota Vikings | 1 p.m. |
| Week 13, Dec. 6 | vs. Detroit Lions | 1 p.m. |
| Week 14, Dec. 13 | at Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. |
| Week 15, Dec. 20 | at Washington Commanders | 1 p.m. |
| Week 16, TBD (Flex Game) | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TBD |
| Week 17, Jan. 3 | vs. New Orleans Saints | 1 p.m. |
| Week 18, TBD (Flex Game) | at Carolina Panthers | TBD |
Atlanta Falcons Season Prediction And Parting Thoughts
Season Prediction: 8-9
The NFC South is wide open again — the Falcons, Buccaneers and Panthers finished in a three-way tie at 8-9 last year and that might be the winning record in 2026 as well.
The quarterback situation certainly undercuts Atlanta’s upside, but this is where we should note that in one of the two seasons Stefanski got the Browns to the playoffs (a Herculean feat, period) he did so while starting five different quarterbacks in 2023 (Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jeff Driskel).
So let’s not put anything past a two-time NFL Coach of the Year who has worked miracles before and now has an elite collection of offensive playmakers and one of the more reliable offensive lines in the league.
It would not totally surprise us if the Falcons snuck up to 10 wins, but until proven otherwise with the QBs we can’t go out on such a limb.
We are somewhat out on one, though, having the Falcons ahead of the Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers in our preseason power rankings countdown as DraftKings Sportsbook has Atlanta with the worst odds of the fourth to win the division (+400).
It needs to be noted that the Falcons’ QB situation wasn’t dramatically better last year with Penix and then a diminished, aging Cousins and yet they nonetheless tied for the division lead, losing the tiebreaker. Stefanski could well make the difference in 2026.
