Leading up to the kickoff of the 2026 NFL season, TeamFB7 will dive into every team with analysis, critiques, breakout player picks and overall predictions. We’re working backward from our early preseason power rankings with a couple of updates/tweaks based on subsequent developments. The New Orleans Saints sit at No. 24.
There seems to be genuine hype and optimism for the New Orleans Saints this season … for some reason.
The oddsmakers at DraftKings have set the Saints’ over/under win total at 7.5 after a 6-11 finish a year ago while giving them the second-best odds after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South (+255).
Prominent talking heads and respected NFL media have taken up the cause as well.
There’s a few reasons for this, each of which is really an “in the eye of the beholder” sort of thing — which is to say we don’t quite see it the same as the more bullish believers on Bourbon Street or beyond.
So let’s take them one by one …
Case For The Saints: They won four straight games in December with a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore to build some momentum heading into 2026.
Counter: That is technically true, but context is key.
Those wins were by 4 points over the reeling Buccaneers (who were in the midst of losing seven out of eight games with a hobbled QB), by 3 points over the Jekyll & Hyde Panthers (who alternated wins and losses for 10 straight games with no rhyme or reason from one week to the next), against the tanking Jets with undrafted out-of-his-depths rookie QB Brady Cook on the other side, and then the thoroughly abysmal Titans with a lame-duck interim head coach.
New Orleans was 2-10 entering that favorable stretch and then followed the winning streak by losing its finale to a Falcons team about to fire its general manager and head coach. … Excuse us for being unmoved by that.
Case For The Saints: Quarterback Tyler Shough emerged late in his debut season, finished (a distant) second in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting and should only get better moving forward.
Counter: This is really where the Saints believers and otherwise divide — it does come down largely to what one projects from Shough moving forward in his career.
Let’s start with the good because there definitely is some.
The second-year QB seems to read the field well and make quick-enough decisions, has good ball placement and touch, some above-average mobility and ability to create with his legs, and he possesses clear poise and leadership aura. We’ll give him all of that.
But he lacks the very most important component to being a successful NFL quarterback — elite arm talent (or even top-half-of-the-league arm talent).
Shough has bottom-third-of-the-league arm talent and is turning 27 years old this month (because it took him seven college football seasons across three schools to finally stay healthy and breakout), so he’s probably near his athletic peak already.
Evaluating Tyler Shough
What do we mean by “arm talent”?
Great question with a simple and clear answer — the zip (and confidence) to make next-level throws in tight spots, to create big plays that don’t require significant separation by receivers, to be able to confidently attack down the middle of the field, etc. You know, the stuff that Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers better than almost anyone through his extended prime, Lamar Jackson to an underrated level, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold at times, even Kyler Murray on a good day can do.
Shough’s highlight film shows almost none of that. It shows a quarterback who can effectively get the ball to wide receivers open underneath or on quick outs with enough cushion, occasionally lead a receiver to open space over the middle with good anticipation and timing, and the ability to throw a decent low-risk lob down the sideline. The latter seems his only real shot at making truly big downfield plays, and his touch is good enough to hit on a few, no doubt.
That arsenal can work on certain weeks when everything is clicking, as it did at times last year. Shough’s highlight film does show some really impressive ball placement at times, and if a receiver gets loose behind the defense there’s a good chance he’ll notice in time to put the ball on the money and make the play.
But all of those acknowledged strengths are pretty much the description of QBs with the dreaded “game manager” label.
Against better defenses that don’t have breakdowns or open up soft windows in the second and third levels, that skill set simply isn’t enough to consistently move the offense and can leave such a QB vulnerable to pressing and taking fateful chances.
Shough’s ceiling as a passer looks to be maybe Derek Carr with a little more mobility. Ironically, Saints fans couldn’t wait to move on from Carr after his two-year stint as the team’s starter in 2023-24.
Shough could end up on the higher end of that tier, better than say a Gardner Minshew, but … well, point made.
Case For The Saints: They got better this offseason, signing free agent running back Travis Etienne away from the Jaguars and drafting Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson No. 8 overall.
Counter: Etienne is an upgrade to a rushing attack that lacked any difference-makers once aging/declining former star Alvin Kamara was injured, but Etienne is a mid-tier RB1 at best who has never rushed for more than 1,125 yards and has averaged a modest 4.2 yards per carry for his career. He’ll help, but only so much.
And, unfortunately, Tyson will start his rookie season on the injured reserve with a significant hamstring injury that could keep him out a month and a half into the season or more (with no telling how it affects him even once he returns).
Ultimately, this still feels like a rebuilding team with a long way to go still.
New Orleans Saints Reset
2025 Finish: 6-11, missed playoffs
Head Coach: Kellen Moore, second season
Hot Seat Meter (0-10): 0
Offensive Coordinator: Doug Nussmeier, second season
Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Staley, second season
Best Offseason Move: Re-signing DE Cameron Jordan
Cameron Jordan is 37 years old and remained a free agent deep into the offseason before the Saints brought him back on a one-year deal for $7.5-million (plus incentives).
Despite his age, Jordan remained highly effective in posting 10.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss last season.
Moreover, he’s played his entire career in New Orleans and announced that this upcoming 16th season will be his last, so one of the Saints’ all-time great players gets to finish where he started. That just seems right and a win-win for the player and organization.
With 132 career sacks, Jordan needs 6.5 this season to move into the top 10 all-time (at least since sacks became an official stat in 1982).
Jordan’s status for the season opener is in question, however, due to a lingering hamstring injury.
Worst Offseason Move: Leaving the secondary thin on depth
There’s not an obvious complaint to wage about any move the Saints made, but on paper at least, the secondary looks rather thin after solid nickel corner Alontae Taylor left in free agency for a big payday from the Titans (three years, $58 million).
Kool-Aid McKinstry is a strong CB1, having posted 76 tackles, 3 INTs and 17 passes defended (tied for 6th-most in the NFL). Across from him is intriguing 2025 fourth-round pick Quincy Riley, who made 5 starts as a rookie and graded out 62nd out of 114 qualifying cornerbacks by PFF. And Jonas Sanker (80 tackles, 2 INTs last year) moves from safety to replace Taylor at nickel. The Saints like Riley’s upside and Sanker’s fit in the slot, so the top of the depth chart may be just fine.
Behind them, though, it’s former Browns starter Martin Emerson Jr. coming off a torn Achilles that cost him all of last season and third-year corner Decamerion Richardson, who played just 13 snaps last year for the Raiders.
New Orleans Saints Roster Breakdown
Biggest Strength: Edge rushers
Ideally, the Saints get a repeat of Jordan’s 2025 production in his final season, but the even bigger hope is that Chase Young’s belated breakout is real and sustainable.
New Orleans originally signed Young, the former No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by Washington, to a one-year, $13-million deal in 2024 and then re-signed him to re-signed him to a three-year, $51-million extension.
That paid off in a big way when Young had a career-high 10 sacks in just 12 games last year, while PFF credited him with 49 total pressures.
Credit Staley, the former Chargers head coach, with helping Young look like the player he was expected to be all along when he was drafted out of Ohio State as a unanimous All-American who collected every relevant major award and was considered a can’t-miss prospect.
The Saints also have Carl Granderson in the rotation entering his eighth year with the team. He’s averaged more than 6 sacks a season the last four years.
Having those edge rushers serve as the tone-setters for the defense is going to be key for that unit.
Biggest Weakness: Overall depth
The Saints are carrying between $115-117 million in dead salary cap money (based on source, between Spotrac.com and OverTheCap.com), which is more than a third of the NFL salary cap for 2026 ($301.2 million).
That left little wiggle room to address needs beyond the top of the depth chart.
We already touched on the cornerback depth, but the linebackers are another thin unit behind starters Peter Werner and free agent addition Kaden Elliss (with the former Falcons starter replacing leading tackler Demario Davis, who signed with the Jets). Behind them, it’s 2024 fourth-rounder Danny Stutsman (53 tackles as a rookie reserve), Chris Rumph II (0 starts in four seasons between the Chargers and Saints) and Isaiah Stalbird (28 tackles in two seasons as an undrafted free agent).
Ditto at safety with starters Julian Blackmon and Justin Reid backed up by fourth-year reserve Jordan Howden and Mike Reid, an undrafted practice squad addition for the Panthers and Seahawks last season.
And the interior defensive line might have been all right, but losing starter Brian Bresee to a season-ending torn ACL leaves that unit thin as well. The Saints will need 2025 third-round pick Vernon Broughton to make an impact after missing most of his rookie season due to injury, and 2026 second-round pick Christen Miller (No 42 overall) to make impacts.
It’s not just on defense, though.
With Tyson out indefinitely, New Orleans is already scraping thin at wide receiver beyond star Chris Olave. Next on the pecking order is Devaughn Vele (25 catches for 293 yards and 2 TDs in 13 games last year), fourth-round rookie Bryce Lance (out of North Dakota State) and sixth-round rookie Barion Brown (out of LSU)
Most Intriguing Rookie: WR Jordyn Tyson
Assuming he is back from the hamstring injury eventually, Tyson is the kind of field-stretcher that can get behind defenses in a hurry and create the kind of openings that Shough is able to capitalize on downfield — and elsewhere.
The second wide receiver taken in this draft, Tyson had 136 receptions for 1,812 yards and 18 TDs over 21 games the last two seasons at Arizona State.
Breakout Player: Cornerback Quincy Riley
Riley logged 592 snaps as a rookie, making 35 tackles, an interception and 10 pass breakups while serving as the team’s third cornerback (but operating on the outside with Taylor in the slot).
He made a strong impression and should build on it in an even more prominent role in 2026.
MVP Pick: WR Chris Olave
Given Tyson’s prolonged injury to start the season and the noted lack of proven depth at wide receiver otherwise, this offense and its second-year QB are going to need to get everything they can from Olave, a second-team All-Pro selection last season as he set career-highs with 100 receptions for 1,163 yards and 9 TDs.
He signed a four-year extension worth up to $132 million in July, and the cap-strapped Saints will need to get their money’s worth from their star wideout.
(All contract values and salary cap info referenced from Spotrac.com)
New Orleans Saints 2026 Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| Week 1, Sept. 13 | at Detroit Lions | 1 p.m. |
| Week 2, Sept. 20 | at Baltimore Ravens | 1 p.m. |
| Week 3, Sept. 27 | at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 p.m. |
| Week 4, Oct. 5 (Monday) | vs. Atlanta Falcons | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 5, Oct. 11 | vs. Minnesota Vikings | 1 p.m. |
| Week 6, Oct. 18 | at New York Giants | 1 p.m. |
| Week 7, Oct. 25 | vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (in France) | 9:30 a.m. |
| Week 8 | BYE WEEK | |
| Week 9, Nov. 8 | vs. Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. |
| Week 10, Nov. 15 | vs. Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 11, Nov. 22 | at Chicago Bears | 1 p.m. |
| Week 12, Nov. 29 | at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. |
| Week 13, Dec. 6 | vs. Green Bay Packers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 14, Dec. 13 | at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 15, Dec. 20 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 16, Dec. 27 | vs. Arizona Cardinals | 1 p.m. |
| Week 17, Jan. 3 | at Atlanta Falcons | 1 p.m. |
| Week 18, TBD (Flex Game) | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TBD |
New Orleans Saints Season Prediction And Parting Thoughts
Season Prediction: 6-11
Same record as last year but with the wins more spread out and the team more competitive overall most other weeks.
The NFC South again looks to be the weakest division in the league, so anything is possible here. The Panthers “won” it last year via a three-way tiebreaker despite losing in Week 18. With a couple upsets, maybe, maybe the Saints can get to 8-9 and be in the mix, but again, we’re not drinking the Bourbon Street Kool-Aid like many others.
Shough will have some nice games, but he’ll have some frustrating games, especially as long as Tyson is out. It’ll be interesting to see where his second season ends up.
Maybe we’re selling him short. Maybe others are overselling him. Maybe Saints fans just want any reason to believe there is a future after Drew Brees.
Shough averaged 260 passing yards over the final eight games with 9 TDs, 4 INTs and 3 rushing TDs in that span, but again, that was in part a function of favorable matchups and the Saints having one of the league’s most feeble rushing attacks the second half of the season while asking their rookie QB to throw at a volume that is unlikely to sustain in 2026.
Limiting turnovers will be the biggest way he can continue to generate confidence in his future as the franchise quarterback because we’re just not sold he’ll make enough big plays in the passing game consistently to overcome many mistakes.
