The offseason is at its height, and that means oddsmakers are beginning to roll out early over-under win totals for 2026 across the NFL.
For the most part, the professional oddsmakers are incredibly on point in setting the preseason over/unders for NFL win totals. It’s hard to spot much obvious value in the lines.
And, of course, it’s impossible to know what unpredictable factors will come into play during the season for teams — injuries, new coordinator looking lost, etc.
That said, after scouring the over-under lines set by DraftKings, here are five “overs” we have the most confidence in for 2026.
(*All lines via DraftKings)
5 NFL Teams Most Likely To Surpass Their Over-Under Total For Wins in 2026
1. Atlanta Falcons (6.5)
We’re clearly just more bullish on the Falcons than … most anybody outside of Atlanta, it seems.
The Falcons actually are perceived as the worst team in the lowly NFC South, per the oddsmakers, as the Buccaneers (8.5), Saints (7.5) and Panthers (7.5) all have higher over/under totals.
Yet, Atlanta finished in a three-way tie atop the division at 8-9 last season despite being one of the biggest underachievers in the league based on roster talent, just substantially upgraded its coaching situation from Raheem Morris to two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski, returns the best trio of offensive playmakers in the division and should have a better quarterback situation.
That last part is probably the difference in opinion reflected in the over/under total, but it shouldn’t be.
Yes, Tua Tagovailoa was pretty bad for the Dolphins last year. It wasn’t a great offensive roster once Tyreek Hill went down with his early season-ending injury, he had worn out his welcome in Miami, and it all just finally came to a head.
But Tagovailoa is still a clear upgrade over what Michael Penix Jr. showed his first two seasons before his latest major knee injury. He’s at worst on par with what steady-but-limited 37-year-old Kirk Cousins provided the second half of last year when the Falcons reeled off four straight wins to close the season.
Tagovailoa, who led the league in passing as recently as 2023 and is still just 28 years old, now has a better offensive cast around him and a whole lot of extra motivation to prove himself on a one-year contract after getting released in Miami.
Bijan Robinson is one of the elite talents in the league and coming off an incredible season with 2,298 rushing/receiving yards and 11 TDs, tight end Kyle Pitts is coming off a career-best season with 88 catches, 928 yards and 5 TDs, and wide receiver Drake London went for 100-1,271-9 in his last full season in 2024.
So why would this team be two games worse? Because the defense might drop off a little if top edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is suspended for his off-field transgressions?
We’re all in on the Falcons’ “over” in 2026.
2. Houston Texans (9.5)
The Texans have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL with arguably the best defense in the league, an improved offense (on paper), a proven head coach in DeMeco Ryans and they went 12-5 last year before the offseason upgrades.
This is a layup.
It wasn’t at all a fluke that Houston won 10 straight games to close last season and on through the wildcard round.
Yes, there’s extra pressure on quarterback C.J. Stroud after his abysmal postseason performance, but the fourth-year QB has been much better than that throughout his career and should have an improved cast around him in 2026.
Veteran running back David Montgomery arrives from Detroit to stabilize what was one of the weaker rushing attacks in the league. The Texans will hope wide receiver Tank Dell can return to form and pair with star WR1 Nico Collins again after missing 2025 recovering from a devastating knee injury. And the offensive line should be much better.
The Texans signed former Colts right tackle Braden Smith (2 years, $20 million) and former Browns guard Wyatt Teller (2 years, $16 million) and then traded up to No. 26 in the draft to take Georgia Tech’s Keylan Rutledge to be their new center, overhauling the weakest unit on the team.
Defensively, all the important pieces are back from a group that allowed a league-low 277.2 yards per game and the second-fewest points in the league last season (17.4 PPG).
The Texans are a legit Super Bowl contender and should clear 9.5 wins easily as the clear best team in the AFC South.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8.5)
We’ve been beating this drum since Minnesota signed quarterback Kyler Murray, following his release in Arizona, and it’s still confounding why there is such trepidation about the Vikings.
This was a 14-3 playoff team two seasons ago — the last time it had a functioning starting quarterback. Not a ton has changed since aside from the ill-fated mismanagement of that position in letting Sam Darnold walk and hinging a built-to-win-now team’s fate on the arm of untested and ultimately overwhelmed J.J. McCarthy.
Even still, coach Kevin O’Connell managed to coax a 9-8 record out of a team with a rotating door of McCarthy, Carson Wentz and undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback.
So how could the Vikings possibly be worse while upgrading substantially at QB with the dynamic dual-threat Murray, who has everything to prove this year and was never really the problem in Arizona anyway?
Minnesota also added to its offensive stable by signing Jauan Jennings as a co-WR2 along with Jordan Addison behind one of the game’s top playmakers in Justin Jefferson.
The only thing working against the Vikings in 2026 is that the NFC North looks like the second-best division in football with all four teams playoff-caliber.
Getting six games against the Bears, Lions and Packers, plus also landing the Bills, 49ers and Patriots on the schedule is daunting. But the Vikings also play the entire NFC South (the worst division in the league) plus the rebuilding Dolphins, Jets and regression-candidate Colts.
4. Los Angeles Rams (10.5)
We put the Rams at No. 1 in our Way Too Early NFL Power Rankings, suggested that they were the second-best team in the NFL last year and they then got even better this offseason.
So this is another easy call.
Assuming star WR Puka Nacua can stay out of trouble off the field after a concerning offseason, the Rams have arguably the best collection of offensive talent in the league with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford back at QB, Davante Adams pairing with Nacua again and excellent tandems at running back (Kyren Williams and Blake Corum) and tight end (Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee).
They then went and addressed their biggest weakness on defense, taking the Chiefs’ talented cornerback duo of Trent McDuffie (via trade, followed by the largest contract ever for a CB) and Jaylen Watson (free agency).
The Rams gave away a couple games they shouldn’t have last year and still went 12-5 on their way to the NFC championship game.
The path doesn’t get any easier in the NFC West — the best division in football — with two games each against the reigning-champion Seahawks and another Super Bowl contender in the 49ers.
Out-of-division games on the road vs. the Broncos and Eagles and home vs. the Bills, Packers and Chiefs add to the challenge, but the rest of the schedule is very favorable.
And the Rams are very good.
5. Buffalo Bills (10.5)
Over the last six seasons, the Bills have won 13, 11, 13, 11, 13 and 12 games. So what are we doing here?
Quarterback Josh Allen is in the peak of his prime and now has arguably the best set of passing targets he’s had in his career with D.J. Moore coming over from the Bears to pair with slot maven Khalil Shakir, one of the best tight end tandems in the league with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, plus WR Keon Coleman in a pivotal prove-it year for his career and intriguing rookie WR Skyler Bell.
Oh yeah, and the NFL’s reigning rushing leader is back as well in James Cook.
Good luck to defenses across the league, especially with Allen back to full strength after playing through a broken bone in his foot at the end of last season.
The coaching change from stodgy Sean McDermott to high-energy Joe Brady, promoted from offensive coordinator, is a positive as well.
Buffalo also gets two games each vs. rebuilding AFC East foes the Dolphins (likely to be the worst team in the NFL) and Jets, plus a matchup with the rebuilding Raiders out of the division.
The rest of the schedule is pretty damn tough, we’ll admit — the Patriots twice, at the Texans, Vikings, Packers and Broncos, and home vs. the Lions, Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs and Bears.
It’s one of the tougher slates in the league, for that matter.
But even still, the Bills are in Super Bowl-or-bust mode and 11 wins (yet again) shouldn’t be a problem for this team in the end.
You can find more betting news and updates at Ballislife Bets.
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