NFL Week 5 Overreactions: Bills Are Going To The Super Bowl

W.G. Ramirez October 13, 2026 Fact checked by: Matt Moreno No Comments

The NFL is made for overreactions from fans and media alike, and the results from Week 5 action brought plenty of opinions. TeamFB7 sorts through them all to separate fact from fiction across the league.

Five weeks into the NFL season, everybody wants a verdict. One quarterback is finished, another is an MVP candidate, and a team that looked dangerous a week ago suddenly needs to tear it all down. Then Sunday happens, and half those arguments get flipped on their heads.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during overtime of the game at SoFi Stadium on October 12, 2026 in Inglewood, California.
(Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Week 5 gave us plenty to argue about: a wild finish in London, another statement from Minnesota, a humbling afternoon for the Raiders and a Baltimore comeback that Atlanta will have trouble forgetting. Then Buffalo and Los Angeles closed the week with an overtime thriller that gave us more ammunition.

Breaking Down The Top Week 5 NFL Overreactions

Here are my 10 biggest overreactions, counting down to the one that will spark championship conversations.

10. Aaron Rodgers Has Turned Back the Clock

The overreaction: Forget old Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh has ol’ Aaron Rodgers again, and the Steelers’ offense is ready to carry them.

The reality: Rodgers threw 3 touchdown passes in Pittsburgh’s 34–22 victory over Indianapolis. That deserves attention. So does the guy who turned a short pass into an 80-yard touchdown and added a 50-yard scoring run.

Jaylen Warren finished with 188 yards from scrimmage, giving Pittsburgh an explosive element that changes how defenses have to approach this offense. Rodgers doesn’t need to recreate his prime every week if Warren can make defenders miss and Pat Freiermuth can finish possessions. The Steelers have reason to feel better about their options. Declaring their offensive problems solved would require ignoring how much Sunday’s result depended on two enormous plays. The next step is producing when those quick scores aren’t available.

UP NEXT: Pittsburgh visits Tampa Bay on Sunday, Oct. 18.

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9. Green Bay Has Settled the NFC North Argument

The overreaction: The Packers crushed Chicago. They’re clearly the division’s best team.

The reality: Green Bay’s 31–7 win was decisive, and Jordan Love‘s 367 passing yards showed that this offense can punish a defense downfield. The Packers also forced 5 turnovers, making an already difficult afternoon even worse for Chicago.

That’s a strong divisional win. It’s also a win over a Bears team playing without Caleb Williams. Green Bay and Chicago are both 3–2, while Minnesota is 5–0. The Packers earned their place in the conversation, but the standings haven’t given them control. I’d be encouraged by the passing attack, but I’d be careful not to assume five takeaways will show up every Sunday. That’s a wonderful advantage when it happens. Building your expectations around it is another matter.

UP NEXT: Green Bay hosts Dallas on Sunday Night Football, Oct. 18.

8. Detroit’s Offense Can Fix Everything

The overreaction: Forty-five points in Arizona? The Lions are back, and nobody can keep up.

The reality: Detroit’s 45–21 victory showed exactly why this offense makes opponents uncomfortable. Jared Goff threw 3 touchdown passes and ran for another. Jahmyr Gibbs supplied 151 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. When both sides of the ball are producing, defensive coordinators have miserable decisions to make.

But Detroit is 3–2, and one big afternoon doesn’t guarantee that every game will become a scoring exhibition. The useful takeaway is that the Lions can create offense in multiple ways. That gives them answers when an opponent takes something away. It doesn’t excuse defensive breakdowns or make a weekly shootout the preferred route to contention. Enjoy the production. Demand enough consistency around it to make that production hold up against better opposition.

UP NEXT: Detroit has its Week 6 bye.

7. The Rams Are Too Sloppy To Be Contenders

The overreaction: Los Angeles is 2–3. A team that keeps leaving points on the field isn’t going anywhere.

The reality: The Rams had a chance to win after forcing a James Cook fumble in overtime, but Gregory Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis‘ 48-yard field-goal attempt. Buffalo turned that reprieve into a 37–34 victory. Mevis had also missed from 50 yards earlier in the game. Those are opportunities Los Angeles can’t afford to keep wasting.

But this wasn’t an offense that looked incapable of competing. Matthew Stafford threw 3 touchdown passes, and the Rams drove for a tying touchdown with 5 seconds left in regulation. The problem is turning that production into wins when the final possessions demand clean execution. Falling below .500 creates urgency. It doesn’t erase the talent or mean the season is beyond repair. I’d be concerned about the missed opportunities before declaring this team finished.

UP NEXT: Los Angeles hosts Arizona on Sunday, Oct. 18.

6. The Raiders’ Promising Start Was Fool’s Gold

The overreaction: Forget those three wins. Las Vegas is the same team we’ve seen before.

The reality: The Raiders have lost consecutive games and just allowed New England to pile up 536 yards in a 45-17 defeat. Whatever confidence their 3-0 start created, that defensive performance demands a serious reassessment.

The record is still 3–2. The season hasn’t fallen apart, but the argument that Las Vegas is ready to compete with stronger opponents took a substantial hit. New England kept finding ways to move the ball and finish drives. Brock Bowers‘ 8 catches for 110 yards provided the offense’s bright spot. They couldn’t compensate for the defense’s afternoon.

Buffalo’s 37–34 overtime win Monday puts a 4–1 team next on the schedule. Josh Allen‘s ability to turn broken plays into rushing gains adds another challenge. Las Vegas needs to show it can finish possessions defensively before another difficult afternoon buries its promising start.

UP NEXT: Las Vegas hosts Buffalo on Sunday, Oct. 18.

5. Baltimore Can Win With Anybody at Quarterback

The overreaction: Who needs Lamar Jackson? Tyler Huntley has everything under control.

The reality: Huntley deserves credit for keeping Baltimore alive and delivering when the Ravens had almost no room left for error. His touchdown pass to Devontez Walker with 40 seconds remaining, followed by Derrick Henry‘s 2-point conversion, forced overtime. Huntley then scored on a 1-yard run, and Kyle Hamilton‘s interception ended Atlanta’s response.

Winning 30–23 on the road without Jackson is a valuable result for a 4–1 team. It shows why competent backup play matters. It doesn’t make Jackson replaceable. Baltimore needed a late rescue to get this one home. The Ravens can appreciate Huntley’s composure while still recognizing how much more difficult their path becomes when their starting quarterback is unavailable.

UP NEXT: Baltimore visits Cleveland on Sunday, Oct. 18.

4. Drake Maye Belongs Back In The MVP Conversation

The overreaction: 5 touchdowns against Las Vegas. Start clearing space for the trophy.

The reality: Maye’s 374 passing yards, 4 touchdown passes, and a rushing touchdown in New England’s 45–17 win were an emphatic response to his early struggles. He looked like a quarterback who could make this offense a problem every week.

That doesn’t mean a single spectacular afternoon settles an award race. It does mean the early rush to question him needs another look. New England is 3–2, and Maye has shown what happens when he plays efficiently and the offense finishes its opportunities. Now comes the less glamorous part: repeating the good decisions, protecting the ball and producing when an opponent makes the first read difficult. The ceiling is obvious. Consistency will determine how seriously we take the Patriots.

UP NEXT: New England hosts the New York Jets on Sunday, Oct. 18.

3. Jacksonville Owns the AFC South

The overreaction: The Jaguars are 4–1. Go ahead and hand them the division.

The reality: Cam Little‘s 57-yard, game-winning field goal made for an unforgettable Jacksonville 19–17 win over Philadelphia. The more useful evidence for the weeks ahead came from a defense that held the Eagles to 22 rushing yards on 18 attempts.

Philadelphia’s backfield injuries matter when evaluating that number. So does Jacksonville’s ability to make an opponent struggle to run. The Jaguars gave themselves a chance to win even when the finish threatened to slip away. That’s a promising combination for a team trying to establish division control. Still, a 4–1 record is an advantage to protect, not a championship to collect. Houston gets the next opportunity to challenge it, and Jacksonville would be wise to treat that game accordingly.

UP NEXT: Jacksonville faces Houston at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday, Oct. 18.

2. Buffalo Will Ride Josh Allen to the Super Bowl

The overreaction: Allen can rescue the Bills from anything. Just put the ball in his hands and let him carry them.

The reality: Allen ran for 121 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 210 yards in Buffalo’s 37–34 overtime win at Los Angeles. When the Bills needed to get into field goal range, his legs answered. Buffalo improved to 4–1, and Allen gave the Raiders plenty to think about before Sunday’s game.

But calling this a one-man rescue ignores the play that kept Buffalo alive. Rousseau’s blocked field goal gave the Bills another possession, and Tyler Bass finished it with the winning 45-yard kick. Allen’s ability to improvise is an enormous advantage. It shouldn’t excuse allowing 34 points or surrendering a tying touchdown with 5 seconds left. Buffalo earned a difficult road win. The Bills also left enough on the tape to show why a championship run will require more than another spectacular night from their quarterback.

UP NEXT: Buffalo visits Las Vegas on Sunday, Oct. 18.

1. ‘Niners, Vikings Are Headed to the NFC title game

The overreaction: The 49ers and Vikings are 5–0. Everybody else is playing for third place.

The reality: Both teams have earned attention, and they offered different reasons Sunday. Minnesota beat New Orleans 23–13 while holding the Saints to 142 total yards. Kyler Murray completed 24 of 30 passes, and Aaron Jones rushed for 113 yards. That’s a compelling mix of defensive control and offensive efficiency.

San Francisco had to survive a much messier afternoon, winning 32–29 in Seattle in a game featuring seven combined turnovers. The 49ers found the late scoring drive and defensive stop they needed. Winning a divisional road game when nothing is clean has its own value.

I’d put both teams firmly in the contender conversation. I wouldn’t book the matchup yet. Minnesota’s challenge is sustaining that control as opponents adjust. San Francisco’s is showing it can keep winning without needing such a generous supply of takeaways. Five wins give each team an excellent foundation. January will demand considerably more.

UP NEXT: Minnesota has its Week 6 bye. San Francisco hosts Washington on Monday Night Football, Oct. 19.

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