NFL Week 4 Overreactions: Atlanta Falcons Are In Control Of The South

W.G. Ramirez October 6, 2026 Fact checked by: Matt Moreno No Comments

The NFL is made for overreactions from fans and media alike, and the results from Week 4 action brought plenty of opinions. TeamFB7 sorts through them all to tell you what is fact and what is fiction.

Four weeks into an NFL season, conclusions begin masquerading as facts. The undefeated teams must be Super Bowl favorites. The winless teams are finished. One upset exposes someone, while one breakout performance suddenly makes someone a contender.

Week 4 gave us plenty of ammunition. Buffalo lost at home. Philadelphia squandered a double-digit halftime lead. Carolina stunned Detroit on Sunday night. Kansas City survived Las Vegas. And Atlanta closed the week Monday night by pounding New Orleans, 45-24.

Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball during the third quarter of a game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 05, 2026 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
(Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

Now that every Week 4 game is complete, here are the 10 overreactions worth sorting through — and how much truth might actually be hiding inside them.

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10. The Chargers’ Season Is Already Over

The Overreaction: At 0-4, Los Angeles can start thinking about 2027.

The Reality: The record is ugly, and Sunday’s 30-23 loss in Seattle made the hole considerably deeper. But four games don’t erase the talent on this roster, and Justin Herbert gives the Chargers something most struggling teams don’t have: a quarterback capable of changing the trajectory quickly.

The problem is that urgency has arrived ridiculously early. The Chargers have reached the point where discussing what they *could* become matters considerably less than actually winning. An 0-4 start doesn’t mathematically eliminate anybody, but the margin for error is rapidly disappearing.

UP NEXT: Denver at Los Angeles. Forget the playoffs for a moment. The Chargers first have to prove they can win a football game.

9. The Eagles Are Broken

The Overreaction: Philadelphia’s championship window has slammed shut.

The Reality: The Eagles have problems, but “broken” is premature. What is concerning is the offensive stagnation.

Philadelphia led the Rams 20-10 at halftime Sunday and didn’t score again, losing 24-20. Even more troubling, the Eagles have produced 15 three-and-out possessions through four games, most in the NFL, with 11 coming after halftime.

That’s no longer a one-game anomaly. It’s a pattern.

The Eagles remain talented enough to fix it. But until they demonstrate they can sustain offense for four quarters, questions surrounding this group aren’t going away.

UP NEXT: Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville in London. A Jaguars team sitting at 3-1 will tell us whether Philadelphia’s offensive problems are temporary or structural.

8. The Raiders Blew Their Chance To Prove They Belong

The Overreaction: Losing to Kansas City proves Las Vegas’ 3-0 start was fool’s gold.

The Reality: Quite the opposite.

The Raiders lost 30-27 to an undefeated Kansas City team, and Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns while Ashton Jeanty produced 126 yards from scrimmage.

Las Vegas was tied with Kansas City at 13 entering the fourth quarter before the Chiefs erupted for 20 points in the final period. Yet the Raiders continued answering and had an opportunity late before Cousins’ interception ended their final possession.

There are no moral victories when you’re trying to win a division, particularly against Kansas City. But there is a difference between losing a game and being exposed.

The Raiders lost.

They weren’t exposed.

UP NEXT: Las Vegas at New England. The test changes completely: Can the Raiders respond to their first loss instead of allowing one painful finish to become two?

7. The Giants Are For Real

The Overreaction: New York’s 3-1 start means the Giants are suddenly an NFC contender.

The Reality: Maybe — but four weeks still isn’t enough evidence.

What is undeniable is that Sunday’s 36-24 victory over Arizona looked nothing like a fluke. New York overcame an early deficit and outscored the Cardinals 33-10 after the first quarter.

That’s what good teams do: absorb a punch, adjust and take control.

The Giants have earned the right to be taken seriously. There’s still a difference, however, between becoming relevant and becoming a legitimate NFC contender.

Another divisional road win would narrow that gap.

UP NEXT: Giants at Washington. Get to 4-1 with a divisional road victory and this becomes considerably harder to dismiss.

6. The Patriots Are Back

The Overreaction: New England’s 29-26 victory in Buffalo means the Patriots have rejoined the AFC’s upper class.

The Reality: Not yet.

But this was exactly the type of win a young team can build around. New England entered Buffalo as a 1-2 team against an undefeated opponent and walked out with perhaps the biggest upset of Week 4.

That’s meaningful, especially given the questions surrounding the Patriots’ offense over three weeks.

One Sunday doesn’t erase those concerns, and beating Buffalo doesn’t automatically make New England a contender.

It does change the conversation.

UP NEXT: Las Vegas at New England. Beating Buffalo was impressive. Handling another 3-1 team after that would make this look considerably less like an isolated upset.

5. Carolina Is Ready To Win the NFC South

The Overreaction: After beating Detroit, the Panthers should be considered the team to beat in the division.

The Reality: Slow down — but Bryce Young just gave everyone a reason to reconsider Carolina.

Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Panthers’ 32-26 Sunday-night victory over Detroit.

More importantly, Carolina is 2-2 and already owns a victory over Atlanta.

Monday night’s result didn’t settle the NFC South. It made it more interesting.

Atlanta suddenly looks dangerous. Carolina owns the head-to-head victory. Tampa Bay remains part of the equation.

The Panthers aren’t the team to beat.

They’re relevant again, which is significant enough.

UP NEXT: BYE WEEK. Carolina gets a week to absorb its biggest victory of the season before visiting Philadelphia in Week 6.

4. Nobody Wants To Play The Rams

The Overreaction: Forget its 2-2 record — Los Angeles is already one of the NFC’s best teams.

The Reality: This one may age well.

The Rams went into Philadelphia, trailed 20-10 at halftime and entered the fourth quarter facing the same deficit before scoring 14 unanswered points to win 24-20.

That’s the type of road victory that matters later.

The record says .500. The ceiling looks considerably higher.

Los Angeles still has to demonstrate consistency, because impressive performances followed by uneven ones are exactly how teams end up stuck around .500. But the Rams have enough offensive firepower and resilience to become a dangerous team if they find it.

UP NEXT: Buffalo at Los Angeles on Monday Night Football. Perfect. If the Rams are truly a heavyweight disguised as a .500 team, here comes the test.

3. Atlanta Just Took Control of the NFC South

The Overreaction: The division belongs to the Falcons now.

The Reality: Monday night made that declaration awfully tempting.

Atlanta demolished New Orleans 45-24, rushing for 207 yards while holding the Saints to 50. Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Brian Robinson Jr. added 3 rushing scores.

That’s 5 rushing touchdowns in one night.

More importantly, Atlanta is now 2-0 since Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup.

But let’s remember the purpose of this exercise: separating reaction from reality.

The Falcons are still 2-2, and Carolina already owns the head-to-head victory.

Atlanta hasn’t taken control of the NFC South.

It has announced itself as a serious threat to do exactly that.

UP NEXT: Baltimore at Atlanta on Sunday Night Football. Beat the Ravens after consecutive victories and this overreaction starts looking much more like reality.

2. Buffalo Has Been Exposed

The Overreaction: The Bills aren’t the AFC powerhouse everyone thought they were.

The Reality: One 3-point loss doesn’t erase a 3-0 start, particularly in the NFL, where divisional games routinely turn strange.

But losing 29-26 at home to a New England team that entered Sunday 1-2 should eliminate any notion that Buffalo can simply overwhelm its way through the AFC.

The Bills remain dangerous. Josh Allen remains one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks. Buffalo remains firmly in the championship conversation.

It also received a useful reminder Sunday that its margin for error isn’t unlimited.

Maybe that’s a good thing in October.

UP NEXT: Buffalo at the Rams on Monday Night Football. There may not be a better immediate measuring stick for both teams.

1. The Chiefs and 49ers Are Separating From Everyone Else

The Overreaction: We’re already headed toward a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl.

The Reality: This is the easiest overreaction to make because both are 4-0 — and both keep finding different ways to win.

San Francisco handled Denver 24-14.

Kansas City survived perhaps its most difficult test yet, scoring 20 fourth-quarter points to escape Las Vegas with a 30-27 victory.

Minnesota is also 4-0 and absolutely belongs in the undefeated conversation, particularly after grinding out a 15-10 victory over Miami. The Vikings shouldn’t be ignored simply because Kansas City and San Francisco carry bigger reputations.

Still, through four weeks, the Chiefs and 49ers possess the combination of record, roster, quarterback play and championship expectations that makes projecting February irresistible.

It’s also October.

Four games tell us who has started fastest.

They don’t tell us who will finish standing.

UP NEXT: Kansas City has its Week 5 bye before hosting the Chargers in Week 6. San Francisco travels to Seattle for an NFC West test Sunday.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at TeamFB7.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.

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