The 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year race should be wide open, but there are five players in particular we think have the best shot at the award.
In breaking down the favorites for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, it was fairly straightforward and easy to hone in on a clear top 5 — at least a logical one projecting this far out.
Not so on the defensive side. Not yet, at least.
Before getting into our list of top candidates, though, let’s look into the recent history of the award.
Of the last 20 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year winners, all but three came from the first 19 picks in that respective draft (and seven were drafted in the top 4). So that should help narrow it down a little, right?
Well, the exceptions were linebacker DeMeco Ryans (33rd overall pick) in 2006, linebacker Shaquille Leonard (36th overall) in 2018 and linebacker Carson Schwesinger, who was the 33rd overall pick at the start of the second round last year and won the award with the Browns with 156 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 2 interceptions.
That would suggest that we must consider the possibility that one of the linebackers drafted in the second round last month — Miami’s Jacob Rodriguez, Tampa Bay’s Josiah Trotter, Minnesota’s Jake Golday and Indianapolis’ CJ Allen, in particular — have to at least be on the radar.
Meanwhile, here’s the position breakdown of winners over the last 20 years: 7 edge rushers, 7 inside linebackers, 3 cornerbacks and 3 defensive tackles.
The last safety to win it was the Bears’ Mark Carrier in 1990, though Seahawks safety/nickel Nick Emmanwori finished second in the voting last season
Going further inside the trends, after a run of eight inside linebackers in 13 seasons winning Rookie of the Year from the Bears’ Brian Urlacher in 2000 to the Panthers’ Luke Kuechly in 2012, edge rushers have taken the honor in five of the last seven seasons.
So, given all of that perspective, who is the best bet to win it this year?
Top 5 Candidates For NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year
New York Giants LB Arvell Reese
Ultimately, Rookie of the Year hinges largely on opportunity, and Reese looks poised to step right into a prominent role from Day 1 in the middle of the Giants’ new 3-4 defense.
The Ohio State All-American was drafted 5th overall and will pair with free agent signing Tremaine Edmunds at inside linebacker, but the Giants have also hinted that they will make use of Reese’s versatility in creative ways as well.
Leading up to the draft, there was debate as to whether he was best suited as an inside linebacker or edge rusher, so he has that pass rushing element to his skill set as well. He had 69 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks last season for the Buckeyes.
Measuring in at 6-foot-4, 241 pounds, with a 4.46-second 40-yard dash time, Reese is an elite athlete with limitless upside and will be seen as the defensive keystone to the Giants’ rebuild.
There’s just too much to like here in terms of Rookie of the Year potential, so he’s our best bet.
Washington Commanders LB Sonny Styles
Yes, we did make the point that edge rushers have dominated the Rookie of the Year award in recent years, while Schwesinger and Leonard are the only inside linebackers to take the honor in the last 13 seasons.
But we’re simply more confident the top two linebackers in this draft are safer bets to immediately produce big stat lines than the top edge rushers drafted.
Like his Ohio State teammate, Styles steps into a prime opportunity with the Commanders as the No. 7 overall pick in the draft.
Washington let leading tackler Bobby Wagner become a free agent and emphasized getting younger and faster on defense this offseason. Styles is central to that plan and will step right into a starting role.
The 6-foot-5, 244-pound Styles had 182 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 8 passes defended and an interception over the last two seasons for the Buckeyes. He tied Reese for the best 40-yard dash time among linebackers at the NFL Scouting Combine at 4.46 seconds while posting the best vertical jump (43.5 inches) and broad jump (11’2”) of any LB this year.
For perspective, Wagner had 162 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 2 interceptions at 35 years old in coach Dan Quinn’s defense, while no other player on the team broke 100 tackles.
So just imagine the potential for Styles in taking over that role.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
For NFL Rookie of the Year purposes, we’re just a little more bullish on Bain, the No. 15 overall pick, than No. 2 pick David Bailey based on depth chart factors.
Certainly, the Jets see Bailey as a major piece of their defense, but they also have a couple proven veterans at edge rusher in Will McDonald IV (18.5 sacks the last two seasons) and free agent signing Joseph Ossai (5 sacks each of the last two seasons for the Bengals).
The Buccaneers are going to be a little more desperate for Bain to lead the way off the edge as rookie with YaYa Diaby (7 sacks in 2025) and free agent addition Al-Quadin Muhammad rounding out the top of the unit.
Muhammad had a career-high 11 sacks last season for the Lions, but it kind of came out of nowhere as he had just 15 combined over his first seven NFL seasons. Considering he only got a 1-year, $4-million contract and the Lions let him walk signals some doubt that he can replicate his belated breakout.
So Bain, one of the leading catalysts behind Miami’s run to the national championship game last season, is going to have every chance to establish himself as a wrecking ball for the Bucs’ defense. And he’s such a relentless player who makes an impact in the run game as well as pressuring the QB (54 tackles, 15.5 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 67 total pressures per PFF).
New York Jets EDGE David Bailey
All of that said, there’s a reason Bailey was drafted No. 2 overall.
Measuring in at over 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, Bailey tallied 14.5 sacks, 19.5 TFLs, 52 total tackles and 3 forced fumbles for Texas Tech on his way to All-American honors last season. Per PFF, his 73 total pressures was the most of any edge rusher in college football.
That kind of says it all.
Indianapolis Colts LB CJ Allen
We thought long and hard about going with Cowboys’ safety Caleb Downs here. Downs is going to make an impact for that Dallas defense as a rookie, no question. But as noted, safeties just don’t win this award.
Derwin James received first-team All-Pro honors as a rookie after compiling 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 13 passes defended for the Chargers … and still didn’t win Rookie of the Year in 2018, finishing second to Leonard.
So we’re dipping into the second-round picks here and giving the final spot on our list to Allen, the All-American linebacker from Georgia who was an absolute steal for the Colts at No. 53 overall.
The Bulldogs under Kirby Smart have a pretty good track record of producing NFL-ready defensive players, and the Colts were perhaps the most linebacker-needy team entering the draft after trading away leading tackler Zaire Franklin in a cost-cutting move and letting second-leading tackler Germaine Pratt become a free agent. (They could still look to re-sign Pratt, who remains a free agent.)
Indianapolis signed former Cardinals linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither on a cheap one-year deal, but there’s really nobody in Allen’s way to asserting himself as the new leader in the middle of the Colts’ defense.
Again, opportunity is everything.
