No. 2-ranked Georgia visits No. 6 Alabama on Saturday in the top game of Week 6 in college football. TeamFB7 makes predictions for that game and every other top 25 matchup.
Is Alabama football back? Like, truly back?
Third-year coach Kalen DeBoer will get the chance to prove that Saturday, as there’s no better way to answer that question than a top-10 showdown at home vs. rival Georgia.
While Kirby Smart is 122-21 overall in his time at Georgia, he’s just 2-7 all-time vs. Alabama.
But most of that was against Nick Saban’s Alabama, though DeBoer maintained the Crimson Tide’s advantage over Georgia in regular-season wins the last two years — the highlights of his otherwise underwhelming first two seasons — before Smart’s Bulldogs dominated the Tide in the SEC championship game last December, 28-7.
After a humbling 38-3 loss in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals for a second straight four-loss season to begin his tenure, DeBoer entered a pivotal third season with everything to prove while needing his young, five-star quarterback Keelon Russell to be great immediately.
Well, Russell has been that and more so far as a redshirt freshman, somehow getting better with each start while totaling 1,414 passing yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs, 184 rushing yards and 4 TDs through five games. Just look at the progression:
| Opponent | Passing Stats | Rushing Stats |
| Week 1 vs. East Carolina (48-10 W) | 18 of 30 for 256, 0 TD, 0 INT | 13 carries for 86 yards, 1 TD |
| Week 2 vs. Kentucky (45-17 W) | 16 of 23 for 188, 1 TD, 2 INT | 8 carries for -9 yards |
| Week 3 vs. Florida State (50-36 W) | 23 of 30 for 320 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT | 3 carries for 56 yards, 1 TD |
| Week 4 vs. South Carolina (49-18 W) | 21 of 27 for 365 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT | 8 carries for 35 yards, 1 TD |
| Week 5 vs. Mississippi State (56-23 W) | 16 of 22 for 285 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT | 5 carries for 16 yards, 1 TD |
Last week vs. a ranked and surging Mississippi State team and star Kamario Taylor was billed as a battle of two of the best young QBs in college football, but the Crimson Tide dominated from the start on the road while Russell was nearly flawless (and Taylor faltered).
That performance vaulted Russell’s Heisman Trophy odds — he’s now tied for the third-best odds at +800, per DraftKings Sportsbook — and was the first true sign that maybe, just maybe DeBoer has gotten things figured out at Alabama to the level of living up to the program’s impossible standard.
But that sentiment is ever tenuous, especially if No. 6-ranked Alabama (5-0, 3-0 SEC) doesn’t back it up Saturday night at home in Tuscaloosa against No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 3-0) with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC) and the Tide set as a 1.5-point favorite.
Either Alabama is going to walk off the field at Bryant-Denny Stadium as the clear favorite in the SEC, an undeniable national title contender and DeBoer is going to finally win over the Tide faithful (for the moment) …
Or he’s going to have fans from Birmingham to Mobile reminding him that Saban never lost two straight to Georgia (he was 8-2 against the Bulldogs overall in his Alabama tenure) and that by his third season in Tuscaloosa he led the Tide to an undefeated national championship, etc.
Alabama Has a Favorable Road Ahead After Georgia Matchup
That’s the impossible seat DeBoer chose for himself in replacing the legend, and yet with a win Saturday night he might just be on his way to pulling it off. Not that it’s ever prudent to look ahead of assume anything, but the rest of Alabama’s schedule is fairly favorable with overrated Tennessee, underwhelming Texas A&M, a tough road showdown at LSU and then a potential red carpet the rest of the way with Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and rebuilding Auburn.
How about those stakes for an early October matchup?!
How The Tide Have Built A Return To The Top
Alabama’s resurgence has a lot to do with Russell’s emergence, but there’s more to it as well.
A season after the Tide stunning ranked as one of the worst rushing teams in college football (125th nationally at 104.13 yards per game), the offense now ranks a respectable 45th (albeit not to the Saban standard for sure) with 186.40 rushing yards per game. Russell’s dual-threat abilities are a factor in that improvement, but Daniel Hill (247 yards and 4 TDs on 4.8 YPC), freshman Trae’shawn Brown (211 yards and 5 TDs on 5.0 YPC) and in a smaller role fellow freshman EJ Crowell (204 yards and 3 TDs on 7.8 YPC) have done their part as well.
The defense has had its moments too, like holding Mississippi State’s high-scoring attack to just 302 yards and 6 second-half points while forcing 4 turnovers a week ago.
Georgia Deserves Credit As One Of The Best Teams In College Football
But for all this talk about DeBoer, Russell and Alabama — mainly because it’s been a juicier topic given the scrutiny on the coach and Russell’s arrival as one of the great talents in the sport — Georgia has quietly dominated every opponent it’s played so far as many around college football feel the Bulldogs might well be the best team in the country.
This is a big spotlight opportunity for Smart’s team as well in that regard.
Georgia really hasn’t been tested yet, lining up a soft nonconference schedule and opening SEC play with blowout wins over overmatched Arkansas (45-17), reeling Oklahoma (41-13) and rebuilding Vanderbilt (38-14).
Gunner Stockton doesn’t get the headlines like Russell because his superpower is his elite efficiency. Over the first three games of the season, the senior QB had more touchdown passes (9) than incompletions (7). Overall, he’s passed for 1,049 yards, 13 TDs and 1 INT while adding 122 rushing yards.
Bulldogs Dealing With Injuries At RB
Georgia is banged up at running back entering this matchup, though. Chauncey Bowens, who has a team-high 6 rushing TDs, has been ruled out with what is believed to be a lower leg/ankle injury. Nate Frazier, who had only 2 carries last week and missed the previous game due to bruised ribs, is expected to lead the Bulldogs backfield Saturday night.
Georgia’s defense — led by star linebacker Chris Cole — ranks 8th nationally in allowing 244.6 YPG and is tied for 12th in scoring defense at 13.4 PPG.
Any Alabama-Georgia showdown carries immense intrigue. A matchup when both are ranked in the top 10 and looking like national title contenders is peak college football theater. Add in that the Bulldogs (51.4 PPG) and Tide (49.6 PPG) rank 1-2 nationally in scoring and it gets even better.
We’ll kick off our Week 6 predictions with the hardest one of all and take Georgia on the road, 34-31.
Here’s a look at the rest of the matchups featuring top 25 teams and our picks for each.
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Predictions And Perspective On Every Top 25 College Football Matchup In Week 6
Friday night
No. 20 Iowa 41, Washington 24: The Hawkeyes were in total control of this one from start to finish, rushing for 263 yards on the road while scoring the game’s first 27 points and cruising from there. Kamari Moulton led the way with 208 yards and 2 TD on 26 carries. Washington is now 0-3 in Big Ten play.
No. 8 BYU 24, Iowa State 10: The Cougars are without star running back LJ Martin for an estimated 4-6 weeks, but that didn’t matter Friday night as QB Bear Bachmeier did it all for BYU with 329 passing yards and 2 TDs while also leading the team in rushing with 9 carries for 109 yards. BYU was stifling defensively in allowing only 200 yards.
Saturday (Early)
No. 7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at Nebraska (5-0, 2-0), 12 p.m. on FOX: Two of the 15 remaining unbeaten teams at the FBS level clash in Lincoln, Nebraska. Despite its 5-0 start, Nebraska isn’t ranked because it really hasn’t faced a good team yet with a super-soft nonconference schedule followed by wins over two of the Big Ten’s worst teams, Michigan State and Maryland. The Cornhuskers are intriguing, though, with dual-threat QB Anthony Colandrea off to a strong start as a transfer from UNLV, with 1,142 passing yards, 13 TDs and 2 INTs and 249 rushing yards with 2 scores. The Huskers also get fantastic freshman RB Jamal Rule back from injury. Rule has rushed for 333 yards on 7.9 YPC and has 6 total TDs in 3.5 games. Indiana will look to continue its 21-game winning streak while again looking elite on both sides of the ball with a top 5 defense (10.8 PPG, 237.8 YPG allowed) and a rushing attack that ranks 9th nationally at 252.6 YPG, led by Turbo Richard (587 yards and 5 TDs on 9.3 YPC) and Lee Beebe Jr. (520 yards and 4 TDs on 5.8 YPC). Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite. Prediction: Indiana 37, Nebraska 20
Texas A&M (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at No. 14 Missouri (4-1, 1-1), 12 p.m. on ABC: Can Missouri avoid a letdown after delivering the upset of Week 5 with its 45-17 win over Florida? Jamal Roberts is coming off a career-best performance with 211 rushing yards (with 29 receiving yards) and 3 TDs while QB Austin Simmons has been excellent all season (1,287 passing yards, 13 TDs, 0 INTs). The Aggies have taken a step back after their CFP breakthrough last year, losing their first two SEC games to Kentucky and LSU before beating up on Arkansas. Veteran QB Marcel Reed (908 passing yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 170 rushing yards and 2 scores) has been a bit erratic. Missouri is a 4-point favorite. Prediction: Missouri 27, Texas A&M 24
UCF (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) at No. 18 Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN2: Since losing its opener to Tulsa, Oklahoma State has been one of the most entertaining teams in the country, upsetting Oregon in Week 2 and last week rolling to a 41-24 road win at West Virginia. First-year coach Eric Morris has recreated the magic he had at North Texas last year, led by his top three Mean Green transfers in QB Drew Mestemaker (1,271 passing yards, 11 TDs and 5 INTs, ranking 2nd nationally at 317.8 passing YPG), RB Caleb Hawkins (441 rushing yards and 2 TDs) and WR Wyatt Young (22 catches for 410 yards and 3 TDs). For UCF, Keyone Jenkins (541 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 rushing TDs) has taken over for injured starting QB Alonza Barnett III. Oklahoma State is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, UCF 26
North Carolina (2-2, 0-1 ACC) at No. 25 Pittsburgh (5-0, 2-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN: Pittsburgh may be undefeated, but it sustained a major loss last week as star sophomore QB Mason Heintschel tore his ACL and is done for the season. Fifth-year senior Holden Geriner, formerly at Auburn and Texas State, closed out the Panthers’ big 35-33 win at Virginia Tech, completing 8 of 12 passes for 78 yards and a TD, but Heintschel’s big arm was the identity of this offense. North Carolina has lost two straight, to Clemson and Notre Dame, after a 2-0 start and probably still doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match even the diminished Panthers. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Pittsburgh 26, North Carolina 17
South Carolina (2-3, 0-3 SEC) at No. 16 Florida (4-2, 2-1), 12:45 p.m. on SEC Network: It’s hard to fathom how Florida could look so dominant one week (302 rushing yards in a 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss) and so dominated the next (42 rushing yards on 25 carries in a 45-17 loss at Missouri). That should have been a humbling wake-up call for the Gators, making this an unenviable matchup for reeling South Carolina to come into The Swamp against a Florida team locked in on bouncing back in a big way behind running back Jadan Baugh (613 rushing yards and 11 TDs). This is increasingly looking like coach Shane Beamer’s last season with the Gamecocks as they blew a 17-0 lead last week in a home loss to Kentucky two weeks after blowing a 16-0 lead in a home loss to Mississippi State. Florida is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: Florida 44, South Carolina 24
Saturday (Late Afternoon)
No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1), 3:30 p.m. on ABC: Anything can happen in the Red River Rivalry, as the Longhorns and Sooners meet at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, but the trajectories of these teams couldn’t be more different heading into this matchup. Texas, buoyed by its early win over Ohio State, is viewed as a top national title contender, despite a tough test in a 20-17 win at Tennessee before its bye week, while Oklahoma is reeling with losses to its only two Power 4 opponents so far (and a concerning 14-6 win over New Mexico) as QB John Mateer (883 passing yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs) struggles to live up to expectations. Arch Manning still has plenty to prove for Texas as well, though, while passing for a modest 862 yards, 7 TDs and 3 INTs so far. Texas is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas 26, Oklahoma 23
Stanford (2-3) at No. 5 Notre Dame (5-0), 3:30 p.m. on NBC: The Fighting Irish can’t seem to figure out who their top running back is between Aneyas Williams (266 yards and 4 TDs on 4.4 YPC), Nolan James Jr. (262 yards and 3 TDs on 4.8 YPC) and Jonaz Walton (228 yards on 5.8 YPC) with the backfield timeshare changing every week. But that hasn’t slowed Notre Dame down at all, with QB CJ Carr being the steadying constant so far while throwing for 1,197 yards, 13 TDs and 1 INT. Stanford is coming off a 57-3 loss at Wake Forest and has been blown out three of the last four games. Notre Dame is a 40.5-point favorite. Prediction: Notre Dame 54, Stanford 17
No. 9 Ole Miss (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN: Ole Miss had a bye week after its humbling loss at Florida to regroup before taking on a Vandy team rebuilding around five-star freshman QB Jared Curtis (746 passing yards, 4 TDs and 3 INTs). Look for Trinidad Chambliss and Co. to get back on track this week even with RB Kewan Lacy listed as a game-time decision with his shoulder injury. The Rebels are 9.5-point favorites. Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 24
No. 21 UCLA (4-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 13 Oregon (3-1, 1-0), 3:30 p.m. on CBS: One of the best games on the Week 6 slate carries real upset potential as first-year coach Bob Chesney, previously at James Madison, has rejuvenated UCLA and an offense that ranks 4th nationally with 281.5 rushing yards per game. Chesney’s former JMU star Wayne Knight leads that attack with 445 rushing yards and 9 TDs on 9.1 YPC. The Bruins have scored 106 points in their first two Big Ten games, lopsided wins over Purdue and Maryland, and now get a chance to truly see how they measure up. For Oregon, QB Dylan Raiola makes his first start for the Ducks after coming off the bench to lead them to a win over USC two weeks ago when starter Dante Moore was knocked out by an illegal hit. Raiola, the former Nebraska starter, completed 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and 2 TDs off the bench in that game. Oregon is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: UCLA 44, Oregon 38
No. 22 Houston (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) at Kansas State (3-1, 0-1), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: This is a pivotal Big 12 matchup with each team already taking an early conference loss and little margin for error the rest of the way. Dual-threat QB Avery Johnson leads K-State in both passing (910 yards, 7 TDs and 2 TDs) and rushing (291 yards and 3 TDs on 9.7 YPC). For Houston, Conner Weigman is on pace for a career year with 1,186 passing yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT so far. The Cougars’ lone loss came by 2 points to fellow Big 12 contender Texas Tech. Kansas State is a 2.5-point favorite. Prediction: Houston 27, Kansas State 24
Maryland (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) at No. 5 Ohio State (4-1, 2-0), 4:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network: The only question Saturday for these teams is how many yards will Heisman Trophy front-runner Jeremiah Smith (44 catches for 823 yards and 9 TDs) pile up before all is said and done? Ohio State is a 33.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 49, Maryland 21
No. 15 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Arkansas (2-3, 0-2), 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network: Arkansas’ wins are over North Alabama and Tulsa. The Razorbacks may very well go winless in the SEC this year. Tennessee might be overrated at No. 15, but the Volunteers and RB DeSean Bishop (540 yards and 7 TDs) should have no trouble Saturday, even with backup QB George MacIntyre expected to start while freshman Faizon Brandon deals with a shoulder injury. Tennessee is a 13.5-point favorite. Prediction: Tennessee 35, Arkansas 17
Saturday (Evening)
No. 10 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (4-1, 2-1), 7 p.m. on ESPN: This is a huge opportunity for Kentucky and first-year coach Will Stein, who has already transformed the outlook for the Wildcats in his first season. Their lone loss came to Alabama in a game they led at halftime, while they have subsequent SEC wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina after winning just 3 conference games combined the last two seasons. Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey has been a stabilizing factor at QB with 1,148 passing yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT while Texas transfer CJ Baxter (361 yards and 6 TDs on 5.3 YPC) and Jason Patterson (355 yards and 3 TDs on 7.9 YPC; probable with a quad injury) lead the rushing attack. For LSU, the question remains whether QB Sam Leavitt, the high-profile Arizona State transfer, can settle into the offense after throwing for 1,221 yards, 8 TDs and 7 INTs (with 220 rushing yards and 6 TDs) through an up-and-down first five games. The Tigers are 9.5-point favorites. Prediction: LSU 34, Kentucky 28
No. 19 USC (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at Penn State (3-2, 0-2), 7:30 p.m. on NBC: There may not be another game on the schedule this week with two coaches under more combined pressure than this one. USC’s record looks nice, but it’s hollow and patience is wearing thin within the fan base for fifth-year coach Lincoln Riley after another deflating performance in a big game two weeks ago at home in that loss to Oregon. The Trojans have all the offensive talent they need with QB Jayden Maiava (1,744 passing yards, 15 TDs and 3 INTs) and a deep stable of playmakers around him, but the defense has been a disaster (25.5 PPG, 87th nationally). For Matt Campbell at Penn State, the Iowa State transfers he brought with him to Happy Valley have underwhelmed, the Nittany Lions are 0-2 in conference play and just gave up 413 rushing yards last week to Northwestern. Penn State is a 2.5-point favorite. Prediction: USC 31, Penn State 28
Kansas (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) at No. 12 Utah (4-0, 1-0), 8 p.m. on ESPNEWS: Utah is giving up the third-fewest points in the country at 10.3 per game as longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley settles into the head coaching job with dual-threat QB Devon Dampier again leading the offense (896 passing yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT; 135 rushing yards and 2 TDs). Kansas, led by QB Isaiah Marshall (810 passing yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 234 rushing yards), has yet to beat a Power 4 opponent this season. Utah is a 15.5-point favorite. Prediction: Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 23 Boise State (4-1, 1-0 Pac-12) at Fresno State (4-1, 1-0), 10:30 p.m. on CW: Pac-12 After Dark is back! Two of the best Group of 6 teams in the country square off in a game with huge stakes as they could well be competing for the G6 automatic berth into the CFP. Boise State, led by RB Dylan Riley (685 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 6.3 YPC) and QB Maddux Madsen (1,058 passing yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs), have reeled off four straight comfortable wins since nearly upsetting Oregon in Week 1. Ditto for Fresno State since a season-opening loss to USC. The Bulldogs are led by QB Jayden Mandal (1,034 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT). Boise State is a 7-point favorite. Prediction: Boise State 32, Fresno State 26
