Week 10 on the college football schedule is loaded with marquee matchups and major College Football Playoff implications. We have thoughts and predictions on every top 25 matchup.
Now that the first official College Football Playoff rankings are out, everything feels a little more urgent around the sport.
The outcome of every big game carries very immediate and consequential stakes. Most CFP hopefuls have no margin for error left. For all but a few, there is no longer time to shake off a bad performance and make up for it later.
The time is now — and Week 10 is going to be a very consequential arbiter for what happens the rest of the way.
It also makes much of the handwringing over the first formal rankings set by the CFP selection committee a little moot as everything will sort itself out soon enough.
For everyone confounded and critical how Alabama landed at No. 5, well, the Crimson Tide goes on the road Saturday to No. 14 LSU. Win that one and the high ranking seems a little more justified; lose and it takes care of itself (one would assume, at least).
Notre Dame landed lower than many expected at No. 11, but the Fighting Irish host No. 1 Miami (minus injured star WR Malachi Toney) on Saturday night. Win that one and all questions about the legitimacy of the Hurricanes’ record are quashed; lose and perhaps they were valid all along.
No. 3 Utah hosts No. 9 BYU, which expects to have star RB LJ Martin back from his ankle injury in some capacity. No. 7 Texas visits No. 18 Missouri. No. 6 Kentucky is on the road at No. 13 Tennessee after Volunteers fans cried afoul about their team being ranked so much lower than the Alabama team it beat. No. 12 Ohio State gets another chance to prove itself with freshman backup QB Luke Fahey, hosting No. 23 Oregon. And No. 2 Georgia tangles with No. 10 Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi.
The bottom line is that the CFP rankings this coming Tuesday will look entirely different than the initial ordering — oh, and that Saturday is a gluttonous treat for college football fans!
College Football Week 10 Schedule
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 9 BYU (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) at No. 3 Utah (8-0, 5-0), 12 p.m. on ABC: BYU was one of the better teams left out of the CFP field last year and it will be that again if it loses another game, while Utah’s sterling record will start getting picked apart if it takes any blemish, making this one of the more meaningful installments of the Holy War rivalry. The Cougars are hopeful that star RB LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, will be able to contribute in some way after being sidelined the last month with an ankle injury. That would be significant because despite missing half of the season now, Martin still leads BYU in rushing (344 yards on 7.8 YPC), which speaks to how important he is to that team. QB Bear Bachmeier (1,750 passing yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs; 336 rushing yards and 7 TDs) has been great overall, but he’s had to carry an extra heavy burden for the BYU offense in recent weeks and has interceptions in three straight games. Utah has faced one ranked opponent so far, beating then-No. 14 Houston, 21-13, two weeks ago. Outside of that and a 27-24 road win at Colorado, the Utes (12th nationally in scoring at 38.9 PPG) have won every other game by at least two touchdowns with QB Devon Dampier (1,876 passing yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs; 393 rushing yards and 5 TDs) and RB Wayshawn Parker (726 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC, 264 receiving yards and 13 totals TDs). Utah is a 4.5-point favorite. Prediction: Utah 27, BYU 24
No. 7 Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 18 Missouri (6-2, 3-2), 12 p.m. on ESPN/Disney+: Many felt Texas received an inflated ranking from the CFP committee, and that could sort itself out Saturday as well. The Longhorns are beset by injuries with RB Hollywood Smothers now done for the season with a knee injury while star EDGE Colin Simmons (FBS-leading 10.5 sacks) and WR Cam Coleman are questionable for this game. Ultimately, the Longhorns are at all times riding the Arch Manning rollercoaster with their inconsistent high-profile QB (1,727 yards, 15 TDs and 7 INTs). Incredibly, this is only the second true road game for Texas this season. Missouri has been dominant at home, including a 45-17 win over Florida and 27-6 win over Texas A&M. The Tigers got star RB Ahmad Hardy (offseason gunshot wound) back last week, but he only had 2 carries for 5 yards while Jamal Roberts (1,005 yards and 9 TDs on 5.3 YPC) continued to lead the way along with QB Austin Simmons (1,952 yards, 16 TDs, 2 INTs). Texas is a 2.5-point favorite on the road. Prediction: Missouri 31, Texas 30.
No. 8 UCLA (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (5-3, 3-2), 12 p.m. on FOX: Conversely, many felt UCLA was under-ranked as one of just three remaining undefeated teams. The Bruins’ only ranked opponent so far has been Oregon, but there’s no denying the incredible job first-year head coach Bob Chesney has done in immediately elevating the program. Even after losing starting QB Nico Iamaleava for the season a few weeks ago, the Bruins have continued to take care of business with senior Ty Dieffenbach (683 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT) in his place. Ultimately, UCLA’s identity is its rushing attack (12th nationally at 219.5 YPG) led by Wayne Knight (680 yards and 12 TDs on 6.2 YPC) and a stout defense that ranks 7th nationally with 260.8 YPG allowed and tied for 5th at 13.4 PPG. UCLA has a fairly favorable path to finishing the regular season undefeated, with No. 20 USC in the finale the biggest obstacle left. But Minnesota is feisty and shouldn’t be taken lightly, especially at home. The Gophers, led by QB Drake Lindsey (1,592 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTs) and a capable defense, have beaten Iowa, Washington and Michigan and took Indiana to overtime last week. UCLA is a 4-point favorite. Prediction: UCLA 27, Minnesota 21
No. 5 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-2), 3:30 p.m. on ABC/Disney+: The best versions of both these teams are really damn good, but Alabama still managed to lose 26-10 to Tennessee and LSU’s overtime loss at Kentucky has its back against the wall the rest of the way. Redshirt freshman QB Keelon Russell (2,057 yards, 15 TDs, 5 INT; 251 rushing yards and 5 TDs) has been great most weeks for the Crimson Tide, and he should have top WR Ryan Coleman-Williams (23 catches for 415 yards and 4 TDs) back after he missed the last two games with injury. For LSU, coach Lane Kiffin has bemoaned the impact of injuries to his team all season and star LB Whit Weeks (broken tibia in Week 4) is listed as questionable to make his return this week. The biggest variable for the Tigers week to week, though, has been the play of QB Sam Leavitt (2,173 yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs; 324 rushing yards and 8 TDs). He’s now strung together his best games of the season back-to-back with 7 TDs and 0 INTs (plus a rushing TD) in wins over Mississippi State and Auburn. When Leavitt is playing at that level, LSU is hard to beat. This could be a season-defining game for both teams. LSU is a 6-point favorite. Prediction: LSU 30, Alabama 28
Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC) at No. 21 South Carolina (5-3, 3-3), 3 p.m. on ESPN: South Carolina coach Shane Beamer looked to be on one of the hottest seats in college football after three straight losses and a 2-3 start, but his Gamecocks have been resurgent with three straight wins at Florida, vs. then-No. 11 Tennessee and at Oklahoma. QB LaNorris Sellers (1,849 yards, 16 TDs, 7 INTs, team-high 603 yards and 6 TDs) has been playing his best football of late and will need to continue to do so after South Carolina lost top RB Matt Fuller to a likely season-ending lower leg injury. Despite returning a lot of offensive talent from its CFP team last year, Texas A&M has totally collapsed with its best wins coming against struggling Arizona State and Arkansas teams. South Carolina is a 7-point favorite. Prediction: South Carolina 43, Texas A&M 31
No. 23 Oregon (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) at No. 12 Ohio State (6-2, 4-1), 3:30 p.m. on CBS: Ohio State lost its first game without starting QB Julian Sayin (likely out for the season with a shoulder injury), falling 30-18 at USC as freshman QB Luke Fahey saw his first significant action while passing for 260 yards and a TD. The Buckeyes need to show the CFP selection committee they remain a top-tier team even without Sayin, so this is an all-important opportunity to do so and for Fahey to find his rapport with WR Jeremiah Smith (62-1,067-13) against a vulnerable Oregon team playing without its own star QB in Dante Moore (shut down for the season). Since taking over for Moore, QB Dylan Raiola led the Ducks to win at USC, then played so poorly he got benched in the following weeks, then regained the job and threw for 336 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in a 34-26 win over Northwestern last week. The Ducks need more of that from Raiola, the former Nebraska starter. Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 38, Oregon 28
Merrimack (4-5) at No. 16 Wake Forest (7-1), 3:30 p.m. on ACC Network: Nothing to see here as one of college football’s surprise teams gets a break with a struggling FCS opponent in town. Wake Forest is a 46.5-point favorite. Prediction: Wake Forest 52, Merrimack 3
Cincinnati (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) at No. 17 Houston (6-2, 3-2), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: Houston is playing for its season at this point already with losses to Texas Tech and Utah. The Cougars are a good team that just hasn’t been good enough in the biggest games and will need to win out and get some help to move back in the CFP conversation. QB Conner Weigman is having a career year with 2,053 yards, 20 TDs and 2 INTs with 249 yards and 6 TDs rushing. Cincinnati followed a major 37-24 upset of Texas Tech by getting blown out by Utah (49-25) last week. RB Cole Tabb has emerged as one of the Big 12’s top offensive talents with 752 yards and 10 TDs on a robust 9.5 YPC. Houston is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: Houston 34, Cincinnati 27
No. 25 Boise State (7-1, 4-0 Pac-12) at Colorado State (3-5, 1-3), 6 p.m. on USA Network: Boise State earned a thrilling 46-45 win over Texas State last week for its seventh straight win since a competitive season-opening loss at Oregon. The Broncos are the only Group of 6 team in the CFP rankings and control their path to the playoff, led by RB Dylan Riley (1,049 yard and 9 TDs on 6.4 YPC). Colorado State is the worst defensive team in college football, ranking dead-last in the FBS in allowing 42.4 PPG. Boise State is a 16.5-point favorite. Prediction: Boise State 49, Colorado State 28
No. 6 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 13 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2), 6:15 p.m. on ESPN: Kentucky is one of the best stories in college football under first-year head coach Will Stein, winning six straight games headlined by an overtime victory over LSU. If the Wildcats want to be taken seriously as a contender, though, they need to keep the momentum rolling into Knoxville. Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey is having a breakthrough season with 1,755 yards, 14 TDs and 1 INT, while the Wildcats have a deep and balanced backfield with CJ Baxter (487 yards and 8 TDs on 5.5 YPC) and Jason Patterson (443 yards and 3 TD on 6.2 YPC). Kentucky is coming off a bye as it heads into Neyland Stadium. Tennessee is also coming off a bye, having had two weeks to react to a deflating loss to South Carolina. George MacIntyre is expected to continue to start at QB for Tennessee despite modest results (728 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) since usurping true freshman Faizon Brandon. Regardless, the Vols lean heaviest on RB DeSean Bishop (957 yards and 11 TDs on 5.6 YPC) and will continue to do so. Tennessee is a 6-point favorite. Prediction: Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24
No. 1 Miami (8-0) at No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1): After the backlash the CFP selection committee got last year for leaving Notre Dame out of the playoffs, it was a bold decision to slot the Irish 11th in the first CFP rankings — 7 spots lower than their AP poll ranking. The explanation was what everyone already knows — Notre Dame has played a light schedule with its best wins coming over unranked Wisconsin and North Carolina teams while it lost its biggest test so far in a 28-24 defeat at BYU. Notre Dame may still be able to sneak onto the bracket with two losses, but that’s no guarantee with minimal opportunities to move the needle the rest of the way. The Irish should view this game as their season at this point. CJ Carr (1,849 yards, 18 TDs and 1 INT) leads Notre Dame along with a deep backfield that has seen different leaders emerge week to week while freshman Nolan James (519 yards and 8 TDs on 5.8 YPC) leads statistically. The Irish get a major, major break with Miami now without star sophomore wideout Malachi Toney, as one of college football’s most dynamic playmakers is out indefinitely with an ankle injury that required surgery. Can QB and Heisman Trophy hopeful Darian Mensah (2,425 yards, 25 TDs and 1 INT) continue to lead the way without his top target? The Hurricanes lead the FBS in scoring at 47.6 PPG and will look for Cooper Barkate (28-372-4) — Mensah’s top target last season when both were at Duke — to step into a bigger role while likely leaning more heavily on the RB tandem of Javian Mallory (495 yards and 7 TDs on 7.0 YPC) and Mark Fletcher Jr. (457 yards and 9 TDs on 4.9 YPC). Notre Dame is a 7-point favorite. Prediction: Miami 42, Notre Dame 41
No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: Most any other week, this would THE biggest game on the college football schedule. It’s still a massive marquee matchup nonetheless, with Ole Miss’ hopes for a second straight CFP appearance likely hinging on the Rebels winning out. Trinidad Chambliss (2,189 yards, 18 TDs, 8 INTs, 7 rushing TDs) hasn’t been quite as unstoppable as last season, but he remains as good as any QB in the sport on his best days. He’ll need one of those against a Georgia defense, led by sensational LB Chris Cole, that ranks 9th in points allowed (14.9/game) and 8th in total defense (272.6 YPG allowed). With RB Kewan Lacy (shoulder) ruled out for Ole Miss, Chambliss will have to dip into his bag of magic tricks for the Rebels in this one. For Georgia, QB Gunner Stockton (1,671 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs) and RBs Dwight Phillips Jr. (415 yards and 2 TDs on 7.2 YPC) and Nate Frazier (297 yards and 6 TDs on 6.3 YPC in six games) lead the way offensively against a vulnerable Ole Miss defense ranked middle of the pack in giving up 24.0 PPG. Georgia is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Georgia 34, Ole Miss 27
No. 19 Iowa (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) at Northwestern (6-2, 3-2), 7:30 p.m. on FOX: Iowa lost top rusher Kamari Moulton to a season-ending injury but looked no worse for the wear last week in a 30-0 domination of Wisconsin, with Hank Brown completing 20 of 24 passes for 222 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INT and Xavier Williams leading the ground game with 78 yards. This would be a very compelling Big Ten matchup with Northwestern one of the conference’s surprise teams, but QB Aidan Chiles isn’t going to play. He’s meant so much to the Wildcats while having a career year. He’ll be replaced by veteran backup Nicco Marchiol, who has 10 career passing TDs and 7 INTs from his time at West Virginia. Expect a heavy dose of RBs Caleb Komolafe (618 yards and 5 TDs on 5.9 YPC) and Joseph Himon II (384 yards and 3 TDs on 8.9 YPC) against an elite Hawkeyes defense that gives up the 5th-fewest rushing yards (79.0/game) and 4th-fewest points (12.5/game) in the FBS. Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite. Prediction: Iowa 21, Northwestern 18
Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3 SEC) at No. 24 Florida (5-3, 3-3), 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network: Two SEC teams mired in disappointing seasons overall despite some incredible wins mixed in along the way. After losing three of its last four games, including a 27-8 defeat to Georgia last time out, Florida is making a change at QB and starting Tramell Jones Jr. over Aaron Philo. RB Jadan Baugh (801 yards and 13 TDs on 5.3 YPC) remains the focal point for the Gators offense, meanwhile. Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle this week but is expected to continue to stick with embattled QB John Mateer (1,835 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INT). Florida is a 5.5-point favorite. Prediction: Florida 31, Oklahoma 21
West Virginia (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) at No. 15 Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1), 9:30 p.m. on ESPN: Texas Tech made the change to veteran QB Thomas Castellanos last week in a 34-26 win over Arizona. The dual-threat QB completed just 11 of 24 passes for 144 yards but he threw for 2 TDs and rushed for 117 yards and a score. With his rushing ability and J’Koby Williams (794 yards and 6 TDs on 7.9 YPC) leading the RBs, the Red Raiders will lean on a ground-heavy attack. For West Virginia, QB Michael Hawkins Jr. is having an incredible season with 1,598 yards, 11 TDs and 2 INTs and 836 rushing yards with 16 TDs, but the Mountaineers simply don’t play defense. Texas Tech is a 16.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas Tech 47, West Virginia 35
