The SEC has gone through plenty of turns already at the midseason point, and TeamFB7 breaks down how the second half could play out.
The Southeastern Conference has long been college football’s gold standard. National championships, NFL talent, sold-out stadiums, and multimillion-dollar coaching staffs have become the norm across the league. But as the SEC continues to evolve in the post-expansion era, the conference finds itself at a fascinating crossroads.
The addition of Texas and Oklahoma has only intensified competition in a league that was already the deepest in the sport. Traditional powers are fighting to remain on top, emerging contenders are looking to crash the party, and several programs are still searching for their identity in an increasingly unforgiving landscape.
As the season unfolds, one thing is clear: There is no obvious favorite. Every team is at each others throat and this year’s schedule is unrelenting.
Nine of the 16 teams are ranked in the AP Top 25 rankings, but there have been many upsets already. But where does this leave the SEC and each team at midseason?
The Elite SEC Midseason “Favorites”
To start with in the SEC, you have to look at the clear favorites. Meaning, Alabama, Georgia and let’s throw in Ole Miss. These three teams have already been defeated, three “upsets.” First you have Ole Miss, who had the big national win against LSU in a revenge game against Lane Kiffin. However, that high only lasted one week after the Rebels got throttled in The Swamp, losing to Florida.
Then there’s Alabama and Georgia. Since around 2008, at least one of Alabama or Georgia was expected to be in the SEC Championship game. You have the occasional outlier year, like 2010 when Auburn played South Carolina, but since Florida and Tim Tebow‘s time passed, it’s always been the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs. Nick Saban had long been the most feared coach in the SEC, then Kirby Smart arrived in 2015 and changed the shape of the conference. Which is why you have the Bulldogs as clear favorites every year now, and so far, Alabama has lost to Georgia and Tennessee. Meanwhile, Georgia became the next No. 1 team in the country to lose to an unranked team (Auburn).
These three teams might look great on paper before the season starts, but right now there is pure chaos. These so called favorites are no longer running away with the conference, since divisions in the SEC aren’t a thing anymore.
The Rising Programs
Next in the SEC hierarchy, you have the teams that are rising to the top but aren’t just there yet. Those programs consist of Texas, LSU, and Tennessee.
A Blunder In Texas
Now, Texas is the most tricky of the group, sure the glamourous Arch Manning and Ryan Wingo are there, but does this team still not belong in the “elite” group? Texas has two damaging losses that very well could keep it out of the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns lost to Oklahoma in a huge rivalry game, so of course the Sooners were going to play their absolute best. However, losing at home, while being heavily favorited, to a Florida team that struggled the previous two weeks was unacceptable. There is a reason why Texas probably won’t ever reach the “Elite Favorites” for a long time, and that’s because it always gets exposed early in the season.
This year it just happened to be at the worst possible time. Yes, Texas’ comeback victory against Ohio State was great, but look how far that got it? The Longhorns starting quarterback is the talk of the town, and not in a good way. What happened to the “terrifying” defense the Longhorns promised to have? This program just continues to shoot itself in the foot when the opportunity to takeover arises.
A Kiffin Issue?
Well Lane Kiffin became one of the most hated coaches in the SEC, and managed to rally everybody when LSU played Ole Miss on an eventful Saturday night. Yes, any non-LSU fan probably rooted for Ole Miss to get sweet revenge that night. Which, since then, LSU has not managed to win an SEC game on the road. A stunning defeat to Kentucky has LSU posing more questions than answering them.
Yes, LSU has the defense capabilities, but when it has mattered, Sam Leavitt has turned the ball over. First against Ole Miss, on the final drive, then against Kentucky when LSU had the opportunity to take charge of the game in the second half. The Tigers’ remaining schedule is not kind, with Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee all remaining. However, good news for Kiffin is games against Alabama and Texas are at home.
Rocky Top Rising
Tennessee is back in the mix. The Volunteers are off to a phenomenal start against ranked opponents. Already defeating Alabama at home, having Kalen DeBoer shivering in his boots with the way fans were going crazy in the fourth quarter. Right now Tennessee is the only team in this group that is actually on the rise. With only one loss, a 3-point loss to Texas, currently has the Volunteers on the outskirts of the top 10 in national rankings. While the Vols had a quarterback scare with Faizon Brandon going down in the Texas game, they have relied on George MacIntyre as of late. Mainly, running back DeSean Bishop has led the charge.
Sitting at 837 yards, with 10 rushing touchdowns, Bishop has put this program on his back, averaging 172.3 rushing yards in the past three games. His 2 touchdown, 159 rushing yard night against Alabama is what ultimately sealed the deal for a week full of upsets. Tennessee is on a rise, but it has two major tests still to come in LSU and Kentucky, however both matchups are at home.
Programs That Need More Time
After the rising programs, there are teams who are rising but they are just starting that process. They need time to grow as programs, maybe they are with a brand new coach, or a new quarterback. These programs are Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Is Kentucky a Football School Too?
What a season it has been for the Wildcats. Will Stein has brought hope to the so-called “basketball school.” Kentucky fans have always packed Rupp Arena, but for the first time in a long time, football Saturdays are creating just as much buzz across Kroger Field.
The Wildcats have become one of the surprise stories of the SEC at midseason. Signature victories over LSU and South Carolina have shown this team is no longer content with simply reaching bowl eligibility. Kentucky expects to compete. The biggest difference has been confidence. In years past, the Wildcats would find ways to lose close games. Now they look like a team that expects to win them.
The defense continues to be one of the conference’s most physical units, but the offense has finally caught up. Kentucky is playing with energy, discipline, and a belief that it belongs alongside the conference’s better teams. The Wildcats are not quite ready to be considered an SEC contender every year, but for the first time in a while, that conversation doesn’t sound ridiculous. The future looks bright in Lexington, and if Stein keeps stacking recruiting classes, Kentucky may not stay in this tier for very long.
What’s Next For Mississippi State?
Mississippi State might not have the record to turn heads, but there are signs of progress in Starkville. A new coaching staff and a roster still adapting to change were always going to require patience. With their biggest win being against Missouri, it’s safe to say sitting 4-2, they can be a great program but things need to gel first.
The Bulldogs have been competitive in stretches, yet struggles with consistency continue to haunt them. One week they look capable of hanging with quality opponents, then the mistakes begin piling up. Turnovers, penalties, and depth issues have prevented them from closing out games.
Still, there is a foundation being built especially with quarterback Kamario Taylor. Recruiting efforts have improved and the culture appears to be moving in the right direction. Nobody expected Mississippi State to challenge for an SEC title this year. The goal was simply progress. While the win column may not fully reflect it, there are enough flashes to suggest better days are ahead if the Bulldogs stay committed to the process.
The Group Searching For Consistency
There are still programs who are considered good, but they have been inconsistent. They’ll get a major upset but get blown out the next week or two. This group consists of Florida, Auburn, and Missouri.
Which Florida Team Are We Getting?
Nobody knows whether Florida is going to win or get blown out anymore. At first, a great 4-0 start with a major beatdown on then-No. 4 Ole Miss had fans being hopeful. Then back-to-back blowouts, against Missouri and then South Carolina (on Homecoming night) has everybody rethinking the Gators. But then they just had to go and beat Texas to making them the most confusing program in the SEC. Not to mention they beat Texas with backup quarterback, Tramell Jones, in Texas.
That is exactly the problem with Florida. The talent is clearly there. They have a Heisman candidate in Jadan Baugh. The coaching staff has shown it can prepare for big games. Buster Faulkner has proven he is the guy here to call plays and make the right gameplans. The defense has moments where it looks dominant. However, that is where the consistency issues rise. Defensive wise, early on you could see this would be their major weakness. After the Auburn game, fans were starting to wonder, but of course the Ole Miss win gave false hope. One week Florida resembles a top-10 team. The next week they look completely lost.
Nobody wants to play the Gators because their ceiling is incredibly high. The problem is nobody, including Florida fans, knows which version is showing up on Saturday. If the Gators ever figure out how to maintain the level they showed against Ole Miss and Texas, they could quickly move into the conference’s upper tier.
Can Missouri Stand Ground?
Missouri has quietly become one of the toughest teams to evaluate in the SEC at the midseason point. The Tigers have looked impressive at times, especially during their dominant win over Florida, but they have also struggled against opponents they were expected to handle comfortably.
The biggest concern is whether Missouri can sustain success against the SEC’s heavy hitters. The Tigers have enough talent to remain competitive, but they often find themselves stuck in that middle ground between contender and spoiler. They can ruin another team’s season, but can they build one of their own?
That’s the question facing Eli Drinkwitz and his program. Missouri continues to recruit better than it has in years, and the overall trajectory remains positive. However, before this program can take another step forward, it has to prove it can consistently win games that matter most.
Give It Up For Auburn!
Nobody saw Auburn’s upset of Georgia coming. Not even the most optimistic Tigers fans could have predicted the performance they delivered against the then-No. 1 Bulldogs.
For years Auburn has been searching for stability. Coaching changes, quarterback battles, and inconsistent play have defined the program since the end of the Gus Malzahn era. Yet despite all of that, Jordan-Hare Stadium remains one of the most dangerous environments in America.
The Tigers may not be contenders this season, but they have become one of the conference’s most dangerous wild cards. If Auburn catches momentum, it can beat almost anybody at home. The problem is that it can also lose to almost anybody the following week. Until that changes, Auburn will remain one of the SEC’s biggest mysteries. Still, taking down Georgia deserves recognition. Not many programs can claim they knocked off a No. 1 team. Head coach Alex Golesh has generated some momentum in Year 1 with the Tigers.
Who Faces Serious Questions?
Now this group is the “red-flag” group of the SEC. Sure the teams look great or can be competitive, but they have serious flaws. Realistically, 14 of the 16 teams in the SEC could be in this group. However, this group is Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas A&M.
Are The Gamecocks Serious?
South Carolina might be one of the toughest teams in the SEC. The Gamecocks have embraced Shane Beamer‘s identity of being aggressive, physical, and willing to fight for four quarters. They proved this when they came into The Swamp and absolutely shook up the Florida Gators.
The problem is consistency. South Carolina can look like a top 25 team one week and then completely disappear against quality competition the next. Their talent level has improved significantly, but the gap between their best football and worst football remains too large. Blowing a 17-point lead to Kentucky was the ultimate blow so far in the season, especially when the game should have never went into overtime.
LaNorris Sellers is a capable quarterback, he doesn’t turn the ball over as much, but he is going to have to step it up even more to get South Carolina back on track.
If the Gamecocks want to become legitimate contenders, they have to start winning the games that elevate a program. The ingredients are there. The question is whether South Carolina can finally put everything together for an entire season.
Are The Sooners Competitors?
Oklahoma’s first seasons in the SEC were always going to come with an adjustment period. The Sooners can no longer sleepwalk through portions of their schedule and rely on talent advantages alone.
However, the win over Texas proved something important. Oklahoma still knows how to rise for the biggest moments. Rivalry games often reveal a program’s character, and the Sooners showed plenty of it when they knocked off the Longhorns.
The issue is depth. Week after week in the SEC is a different challenge than what Oklahoma dealt with in the Big 12. The Sooners have shown they belong in the conference, but they have not shown they can survive the weekly grind required to compete for championships. Not yet, anyway.
Can The Aggies Make A Splash?
Every year feels like the year Texas A&M is supposed to break through. Every year, something seems to get in the way.
The Aggies possess as much talent as nearly anyone in the conference. Their recruiting classes continue to rank among the nation’s best, and the defense has flashed its usual potential. Yet questions remain at quarterback and on offense when games become tight in the second half.
The frustrating part for Aggie fans is that the ceiling remains incredibly high. This team is talented enough to beat almost anybody in the conference. At the same time, it is inconsistent enough to lose games it should win. Until Texas A&M learns how to handle expectations, it will remain the league’s biggest “what if.”
Rebuilding But Has a Great Outlook
Lastly, you have the teams that are nowhere close to competing in the conference, but they are trying their best here. These two teams will definitely win their out-of-conference games, but probably win maybe at max two SEC games. They are Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
Vanderbilt Is Back To Reality
Listen, nobody has high expectations when it comes to Vanderbilt, but after it had an incredible 10-3 run last year, it doesn’t seem unrealistic that many thought they might build off that. However, that is not the case this year and they are rebuilding once more.
The Commodores simply lost too much production from a season that felt almost magical. Replicating success is often harder than finding it, and Vanderbilt has learned that lesson firsthand. The talent gap shows itself against the conference’s elite programs.
That doesn’t mean the future is bleak. Vanderbilt has proven it can create winning seasons with the right structure and development. This year feels more like a reset than a collapse. The Commodores may be back to reality, but at least they know what success looks like now.
Arkansas Needs More Talent
There is effort, there is passion, and there is even occasional hope. What Arkansas lacks is enough top-end talent to consistently compete with the SEC’s best programs.
The Razorbacks play hard and rarely quit, but the margin for error is simply too small. When facing teams like Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas, depth becomes the deciding factor. Arkansas often hangs around early before the talent gap eventually takes over.
That is why recruiting remains the biggest priority in Fayetteville. The coaching staff has to continue building the roster from the ground up. The good news is that Arkansas has shown signs of establishing a strong culture. The bad news is culture alone does not win SEC football games.
The Razorbacks are still a few years away from becoming serious contenders, but there is enough in place to believe they are moving in the right direction. Patience may not be popular in the SEC, but that is exactly what Arkansas needs right now.
