Leading up to kickoff of the 2026 NFL season, TeamFB7 is going in-depth on each team from its strengths and weaknesses to breakout players, intriguing rookies and overall predictions. With the New England Patriots opening the season Wednesday night at the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch, we turn the focus to Pats, who are No. 8 in our preseason power rankings.
The New England Patriots were the biggest surprise in the NFL last season, going from back-to-back 4-13 seasons to 14-3, their first AFC East title since Tom Brady left town and all the way to the Super Bowl before the magic ran out.
Hiring Mike Vrabel was a can’t-miss move, but even he exceeded expectations in so immediately reviving the storied franchise with which he won three Super Bowls as a player. Vrabel picked up his second NFL Coach of the Year award (previously winning it with the Tennessee Titans) while seemingly setting the Patriots up for another long window of success.
The other obvious factor in New England’s resurgence, of course, was second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who made a sophomore surge and narrowly lost out to Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford for the MVP.
Leave it to the Patriots’ good fortune (or smart management) for ending up with another elite head coach/quarterback combo just six years after the end of the Bill Belichick/Brady dynasty.
But before assuming New England is back to being a perennial top Super Bowl contender, there are a few factors working against the Pats repeating that level of success in 2026.
Super Bowl Hangover In Store For New England?
First, there is the perennial curse that seems to befall the Super Bowl loser the following season. One may not be inclined to believe in such things, but history is history. This a long-running acknowledged “thing” — whatever it is, coincidence, latent fatigue from a long season, emotional fatigue from coming so close, etc. — but let’s just look at the three prior Super Bowl losers.
– 2025 Kansas City Chiefs: After getting blown out by the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, losing in their bid for three straight championships, the Chiefs tumbled to their worst finish in coach Andy Reid’s 13 seasons there (6-11) while missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The season seemed cursed from the start with top WR Rashee Rice drawing a six-game suspension from the NFL for his mounting off-field transgressions, WR2 Xavier Worthy dislocating his shoulder in the first game while colliding with TE Travis Kelce and star QB Patrick Mahomes ultimately tearing the ACL and LCL in his knee later in the season.
– 2024 San Francisco 49ers: After a heartbreaking overtime 25-22 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, the 49ers dropped to 6-11 the following season while missing the playoffs after three straight years at least reaching the NFC championship game. Again, the bad luck started immediately. First-round draft pick WR Ricky Pearsall took a gunshot wound to the chest in June in an unfortunate wrong-place, wrong-time near-tragic situation but was remarkable able to return and play 11 games. But star RB Christian McCaffrey was limited to just four games due to mounting injuries and top WR Brandon Aiyuk tore the ACL/MCL in his knee in the seventh game, which effectively led to the end of his 49ers career for a variety of reasons.
– 2023 Philadelphia Eagles: After losing Super Bowl LVII to the Chiefs, 38-35 on a field goal in the waning seconds, the Eagles looked like they might just buck the Super Bowl hangover trend. They started the next season 10-1, but nope … they’d lose five of their final six games and then get summarily blown out 32-9 in the wildcard round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That seems like a lot to be total coincidence, no?
Patriots Hoping To Buck The Trend
As for the Patriots, could it have already started with the offseason controversy that embroiled Vrabel and the rocking revelation of his well-photographed “relationship” — however it be defined — with longtime NFL reporter Dianna Russini?
Maybe, maybe not.
Regardless, that’s the more nebulous reason to wonder if the Patriots are due for a regression.
A more tangible reason would be the fortuitous schedule the team fell into last year while facing an improbable number of backup, soon-to-be-benched or flat-out bad quarterbacks in winning 16 out of 17 games before the Super Bowl loss to the Seattle Seahawks. That included Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix’s fluke ankle injury near the end of the team’s divisional round playoff win ending his season and thrusting little-used backup Jarrett Stidham into action against New England in the AFC championship game.
Basically, if the 2025 Patriots season was played out 100 times, there probably isn’t an alternate version that goes any better than the actual outcome of events.
That’s a tough act to follow, especially in a loaded AFC where teams like the Ravens, Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Texans and Bengals all got healthy and better over the offseason.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Patriots tied for the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +1800.
New England Patriots Reset
2025 Finish: 14-3, won AFC East, lost 29-23 to Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel, second season (68-48 overall, 5-4 in postseason, including six seasons with the Titans)
Hot Seat Meter (0-10): 0
Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels, second season (third stint and 15th season overall as Patriots OC; former Broncos and Raiders HC)
Defensive Coordinator: Zak Kuhr, second season (first official season as DC, but served as interim play-caller in 2025)
Best Offseason Move: Trading for WR A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown and the Eagles became estranged through a frustrating 2025 season, making it expected that the star wide receiver would be traded in the offseason (after June 1 for salary cap purposes). The Patriots were long rumored to be the favorite to land him, and they finalized the deal June 1 in exchange for a 2028 first-round pick and 2027 fifth-round pick.
It’s quite an incredible value for the Patriots considering what other notable WRs commanded on the trade market, like the Broncos giving up 2026 first- and third-round picks (while receiving the better end of a fourth-round pick swap in return) for Jaylen Waddle, who is more of a high-end WR2.
The Patriots lacked a true star WR1 last year, with declining veteran Stefon Diggs doing his best to approximate the role before being basically a non-factor in the postseason. New England released Diggs after just one season and upgraded exponentially with Brown, who should still be in his prime at 29 years old.
While his numbers dipped last season to 78 receptions for 1,003 yards and 7 TDs, the entire Eagles offense caved in with Brown openly frustrated about his usage (and other factors) throughout the fall. It seems far more likely he returns to his prior level of production that saw him post receiving lines of 88-1,496-11, 106-1,456-7 and 67-1,079-7 (in just 13 games) his first three seasons in Philadelphia.
It’s also notable that Brown blossomed in the NFL playing for Vrabel in Tennessee with both sides coveting this reunion.
Patriots fans have been buzzing about Brown’s training camp highlights and clear chemistry with Maye all preseason, and the veteran playmaker should carry some extra motivation into this campaign given how 2025 played out for him.
That addition alone elevates a Patriots offense that was already elite, finishing third in yards (379.4 per game) and second in scoring (28.8 points per game) last season.
But that wasn’t the only move to bolster Maye’s weapons — the Patriots also splurged in free agency to sign former Packers WR Romeo Doubs (55-724-6 in 2025), who becomes the team’s WR2 now with DeMario Douglas (31-447-3) and Mack Hollins (46-550-2) sliding down a notch while Kayshon Boutte was traded to the Texans last month.
Worst Offseason Move: Overpaying for EDGE Dre’Mont Jones rather than retaining K’Lavon Chaisson
The Patriots struck gold last season in signing K’Lavon Chaisson to a modest one-year, $5-million contract and getting a career year out of the edge rusher. He posted 7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles in the regular season and then had 3 more sacks and a forced fumble over the first two playoff games.
Chaisson was surely due to receive a nice raise, but he ultimately settled for a reasonable one-year, $11-million deal with the Commanders.
The Patriots absolutely could have afforded to match that offer, considering they chose to replace him by giving Dre’Mont Jones a three-year, $36.5-million contract with more than $21 million guaranteed.
Jones had a career-high 7 sacks last year between the Titans and Ravens in his seventh NFL season. He has 37.5 career sacks.
For what it’s worth, and such things should be taken with a significant margin of error, PFF ranked Jones the 65th-best edge rusher (out of 115 receiving grades) last season and Chaisson 81st while crediting Jones with 51 total pressures and Chaisson with 54.
Ultimately, the difference between the two players is probably negligible, but the money committed certainly isn’t. That’s why it was a curious move on paper.
(All contract values referenced from Spotrac.com.)
New England Patriots Roster Breakdown
Biggest Strength: The passing attack with Maye, Brown and Co.
Maye was elite in his second NFL season, leading the league in the regular season in completion percentage (72%), QBR (77.1) and passer rating (113.5) while throwing for the fourth-most yards (4,394) on far fewer attempts than the QBs ahead of him on that list, 31 TDs and just 8 INTs. Maye also rushed for 450 yards and 4 TDs.
Not only is he accurate but he’s one of the best downfield passers in the league.
Maye and Brown really are an ideal pairing …
Biggest Weakness: Edge rusher
This isn’t so much a commentary on choosing Jones over Chaisson but rather that lack of depth at the position overall.
Harold Landry III, who led New England with 8.5 sacks last season, had knee surgery in February and is opening the season on the physically unable to perform list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first four games.
That leaves Jones, 2025 undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder (4 sacks as a rookie), second-round rookie Gabe Jacas (out of Illinois) and seventh-round rookie Quintayvious Hutchins (Boston College) as the main rotation.
Jacas had some learning moments in the preseason, further raising concerns about this group.
Fans might also remember well the concerns that came out of the Super Bowl loss about left tackle Will Campbell and the left side of the line in general, as Maye was sacked 5 times by the Seahawks and under pressure the whole game. The emerging narrative since then has been that Campbell was still significantly hindered by the torn right MCL he sustained in late November that cost him four games before returning in Week 18.
The Patriots remain invested in Campbell, the No. 4 overall pick in the draft last year, and added veteran help next to him in free agent left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, with second-year lineman Jared Wilson sliding from left guard to center.
So the offensive line isn’t presently a pressing concern, but it’s a situation to monitor for sure.
Most Intriguing Rookie: Tight end Eli Raridon
The Patriots took advantage of a deep tight end draft class and picked up Eli Raridon, a highly athletic pass-catching TE who had 32 catches for 482 yards at Notre Dame last fall, with the 95th overall pick near the end of the third round.
He’s turned heads throughout the preseason while pushing for a role alongside incumbent veteran starter Hunter Henry.
Breakout Player: Safety Craig Woodson
Craig Woodson was a major contributor as a rookie last season after being selected in the fourth round of the draft out of Cal. He started 15 games, played in all 17 and finished with 79 tackles, 4 TFLs and 3 passes defended in the regular season.
But his playoff performance is what raises expectations for his 2026.
Woodson had 30 tackles (20 solo), 4 TFLs, an interception and 6 PDs in the Patriots’ four postseason games, including 10 tackles and 2 PDs in the Super Bowl.
He’s locked in as a starting safety along with 11th-year veteran Kevin Byard, a notable free agent pickup after he earned his third first-team All-Pro honor last season with the Bears while tallying 93 tackles, 4 TFLs, an NFL-leading 7 INTs and 8 PDs.
…
We wanted to put second-year running back TreVeyon Henderson here. He flashed his upside in spurts last season — 911 rushing yards, 221 receiving yards and 10 total TDs — despite frustratingly limited usage. That included a two-week stretch where he rushed for 147 yards and 2 TDs at Tampa Bay and then 62 yards and 2 scores plus 31 receiving yards and a TD vs. the Jets.
But he was largely a non-factor in the postseason as the coaches clearly didn’t trust him to the extent of lower-upside veteran Rhamondre Stevenson, and the buzz out of the preseason indicates that may still be the case. Henderson has also been ruled out for the opening game with an ankle injury.
Maybe he does earn a larger role as the season goes on and plays to his full potential, but it seems more likely he’s going to remain a secondary option to Stevenson.
MVP Pick: QB Drake Maye
Maye finished just one first-place vote behind Stafford in the MVP voting last year (24-23, 366-361 points overall) in the closest MVP finish since 2003.
He should be even better in Year 3 with that upgraded receiving corps.
2026 New England Patriots Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| Week 1, Sept. 9 (Wednesday) | at Seattle Seahawks | 8:20 p.m. |
| Week 2, Sept. 20 | vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 p.m. |
| Week 3, Sept. 27 | at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 p.m. |
| Week 4, Oct. 4 | at Buffalo Bills | 1 p.m. |
| Week 5, Oct. 11 | vs. Las Vegas Raiders | 1 p.m. |
| Week 6, Oct. 18 | vs. New York Jets | 1 p.m. |
| Week 7, Oct. 22 (Thursday) | at Chicago Bears | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 8, Nov. 1 | at Miami Dolphins | 4:25 p.m. |
| Week 9, Nov. 8 | vs. Green Bay Packers | 4:25 p.m. |
| Week 10, Nov. 15 (in Munich, Germany) | vs. Detroit Lions | 9:30 a.m. |
| Week 11 | BYE WEEK | |
| Week 12, Nov. 29 | at Los Angeles Chargers | 8:20 p.m. |
| Week 13, Dec. 6 | vs. Buffalo Bills | 4:25 p.m. |
| Week 14, Dec. 10 (Thursday) | vs. Minesota Vikings | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 15, Dec. 21 (Monday) | at Kansas City Chiefs | 8:15 p.m. |
| Week 16, Dec. 27 | at New York Jets | 1 p.m. |
| Week 17, TBD (Flex Game) | vs. Denver Broncos | TBD |
| Week 18, TBD (Flex Game) | vs. Miami Dolphins | TBD |
New England Patriots Season Prediction And Parting Thoughts
Season Prediction: 11-6
Not only were the Patriots a top 3 offense in the NFL a year ago, they ranked fourth defensively in points allowed (18.8 per game) and eighth in total defense (295.2 YPG).
Sure, some of that was a product of facing so many favorable matchups and bad quarterbacks, but the floor for the defense should be decently high with Vrabel in charge.
Since we haven’t hit much on it beyond the concern at edge rusher, the Patriots remain stout on the interior of the defensive line with standouts Milton Williams and Christian Barmore — one of the better DT tackle duos in the league. Leading tacklers Robert Spillane (97 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 INTs in just 13 games) and Christian Elliss (94 tackles in 15 games) are also back. And the secondary should be one of the best in football with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis back at cornerback, playmaker Marcus Jones at nickel and the aforementioned safety pairing of Byard and Woodson.
After Gonzalez’s contract situation hung over training camp, the Patriots took care of the emerging star this week by making him the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history with a four-year, $135-million deal (with $102 million guaranteed) announced Tuesday.
Even if there is regression, the Patriots should maintain a very high floor and ceiling both offensively and defensively — as long as they can avoid the full-on Super Bowl Hangover, that is.
