It is nowhere near the most talented division in the NFC, but the NFC South is intriguing nonetheless and we examine the win totals for each team for 2026.
The NFC South enters 2026 as one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, with all four teams carrying modest win totals and credible cases for both improvement and regression.
Tampa Bay remains the division’s measuring stick, but its 8.5-win projection reflects uncertainty surrounding Baker Mayfield and an offense now relying more heavily on young receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan following Mike Evans‘ departure.
Atlanta’s 7.5 total hinges on its talented young core finally producing consistent results. Dynamic running back Bijan Robinson and receiver Drake London give the Falcons elite offensive building blocks, but questions at quarterback with the arrival of Tua Tagovailoa could ultimately determine their ceiling.
Carolina must prove its reconstruction is substantial enough to support a winning season. Quarterback Bryce Young‘s continued development remains essential, while receiver Tetairoa McMillan and running back Chuba Hubbard headline a supporting cast capable of making the Panthers more dangerous offensively.
New Orleans also sits at 7.5, with its outlook dependent on Tyler Shough stabilizing the quarterback position and playmakers Chris Olave and Travis Etienne Jr. giving the offense considerably more explosiveness.
With no team projected to reach double-digit victories — and only Tampa Bay listed above 7.5 — the NFC South could be decided by a handful of close games, making every club’s Over/Under one of the more compelling evaluations on the 2026 futures board.
Here’s how all four teams stack up, and which ones are positioned to go Over or Under their projected win totals this season (totals via DraftKings):
Atlanta Falcons OVER 7.5
Atlanta won eight games last season despite Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending knee injury and inconsistent quarterback play afterward. The Falcons now have enough offensive infrastructure to reach nine wins, even if Tagovailoa opens the season while Penix completes his recovery.
Robinson is the foundation after leading the NFL with 2,298 scrimmage yards, including 1,478 rushing yards and 820 receiving yards on 79 catches.
BIJAN ROBINSON 93 YARDS!
LARvsATL on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/OTqGarUX9F— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2025
Kyle Pitts finally reemerged with 88 receptions, 928 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Drake London produced 810 yards and 6 touchdowns before a late-season PCL injury interrupted his season. That core remains intact, and Kevin Stefanski’s wide-zone/play-action system should accentuate Robinson’s vision while creating higher-percentage throws for Tagovailoa.
Returning All-Pro Selections
- Bijan Robinson
- Kyle Pitts
- Chris Lindstrom
- Jessie Bates
Atlanta also kept four 2025 All-Pro selections — Robinson, Pitts, guard Chris Lindstrom and safety Jessie Bates III — and added veteran pass rusher Za’Darius Smith and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter. The concern is depth along the offensive line, particularly at tackle, while James Pearce Jr.‘s early suspension weakens the pass rush.
Still, eight victories represent a very reachable floor in this division. Atlanta has the NFC South’s best collection of offensive playmakers, an upgraded defensive front and multiple viable quarterbacks. Getting plus money on eight wins makes the Over particularly attractive. Atlanta’s initial roster includes 27 defenders, emphasizing the new regime’s attempt to improve that side of the ball.
Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5
Carolina improved to 8-9 and reached the playoffs last season, but its underlying profile looked more like that of a six- or seven-win team. The Panthers were outscored by 69 points, averaged only 18.3 points per game and ranked 25th in EPA per pass. Defensively, they finished 24th against the pass and 27th against the run by EPA.
Young improved to 3,011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, but his 6.3 yards per attempt and 47.6 QBR remained below the level normally associated with a dependable playoff quarterback. He must make another substantial leap for Carolina to overcome an offense that too frequently played from behind the chains.
Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan renewing their connection in Year 2 😤
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/LpMARBY6Ex
— NFL (@NFL) August 21, 2026
The Upside
McMillan returns as Young’s premier target, and the finalized receiving group includes Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, Jimmy Horn Jr. and John Metchie III. Hubbard and the returning Jonathon Brooks provide backfield depth.
Defensively, Tre’von Moehrig, Bobby Brown, Patrick Jones and Jaycee Horn give Carolina a much more respectable foundation than it possessed two years ago. The Panthers’ initial 53-man roster also reflects considerably improved receiving depth.
The issue is price and regression. Carolina won eight games despite its negative differential and now faces the schedule assigned to the defending division winner. The Panthers could be better statistically without matching last season’s record. Under 7.5 is playable, although laying juice makes it less appealing than Atlanta’s Over.
New Orleans Saints UNDER 7.5
New Orleans finished 6-11 while ranking 28th in scoring at 18.0 points per game. The Saints did improve dramatically after Shough became the starter, going 5-4 in his nine starts, but none of those victories came against an opponent that finished 2025 with a winning record.
Shough nevertheless provided genuine encouragement. He completed 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, produced 13 total touchdowns and posted a 91.3 passer rating. Olave and Juwan Johnson both surpassed 850 receiving yards, and the addition of Etienne gives Kellen Moore a versatile backfield weapon alongside Alvin Kamara.
Saints 6th-round pick Barion Brown finds the end zone
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— NFL (@NFL) August 29, 2026
Nothing Easy In The Big Easy
The finalized roster, however, exposes several problems. Rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve, leaving Olave supported by Devaughn Vele, Bryce Lance and Barion Brown — an extremely inexperienced group.
The initial 53 also carried only eight offensive linemen before waiver claims, creating immediate depth concerns. Kamara and Cameron Jordan missed substantial practice time during camp, and both are at ages when durability and decline become legitimate concerns. New Orleans’ initial roster underscores how thin the receiver and offensive line rooms could be at the start.
The defense ranked 9th in yards allowed last season, and Chase Young recorded 10 sacks in 12 appearances, so the Saints should remain competitive. But asking them to improve from six wins to eight requires Shough to validate a small sample while navigating thin protection, injuries and limited perimeter explosiveness. Seven wins is possible; eight feels optimistic.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 8.5
Tampa Bay fell to 8-9 last season after a promising 5-1 start, but injuries and second-half offensive inconsistency contributed heavily to the collapse. Mayfield still completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, giving Tampa Bay the most proven starting quarterback in the division.
We know what we’ve got here in Tampa Bay 😤 pic.twitter.com/c4YNYMx1LI
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 1, 2026
The offense must replace Evans, the franchise’s icon wideout, but it is not devoid of weapons. Egbuka led the club with 938 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie, and he was highly productive before a hamstring injury slowed him. Chris Godwin is another year removed from his severe ankle injury, McMillan returns, and Bucky Irving rushed for 1,122 yards while averaging approximately 5.4 per carry. The line is still anchored by Graham Barton, Luke Goedeke and Tristan Wirfs.
Bucs Stop Unit
Defensively, Tampa Bay added Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad and A’Shawn Robinson, then used its first-round pick on edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. Those additions should improve a unit that allowed 24.2 points per game in 2025. The release of former second-round pick Chris Braswell — who produced only 2.5 sacks over two seasons — was more an admission that the selection failed than a major competitive loss. Tampa Bay’s finalized roster is notably heavier in the trenches.
The downside is serious: undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels beat out Jake Browning for the backup job, so a Mayfield injury could wreck the season. Losing Evans also removes a reliable red-zone and contested-catch weapon. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay has the division’s most trustworthy quarterback, a strong offensive line and improved defensive personnel. At plus money, I narrowly prefer the Over.
W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at TeamFB7.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.
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