The AFC West features three potential playoff teams battling for the division crown. TeamFB7 assesses which ones could go over their projected number and who could finish below it in 2026.
For nearly a decade, the AFC West belonged to the Kansas City Chiefs. That finally changed in 2025, when their unprecedented run of nine consecutive division championships ended when the Denver Broncos reclaimed the throne for the first time since their Super Bowl season in 2015.
Patrick Mahomes‘ season-ending knee injury in Week 15 officially extinguished Kansas City’s hopes, but the balance of power already had shifted. The Broncos had separated themselves from the division behind coach Sean Payton and quarterback Bo Nix, establishing the consistency that should make Denver the favorite to repeat. That said, Mahomes’ recovery remains the biggest variable hanging over the AFC West and its 2026 win totals.
The Los Angeles Chargers remain a legitimate threat after winning 11 games for the second consecutive season under Jim Harbaugh. Yet another early playoff exit, compounded by significant offensive-line injuries, leaves Los Angeles trying to determine whether it can make the jump from double-digit winner to division champion.
Then there are the Las Vegas Raiders, who enter their seventh season in Sin City with their fifth head coach and another organizational reset. After finishing with the NFL’s worst record and securing the No. 1 overall pick, Las Vegas begins the Fernando Mendoza era with hopes that its latest rebuild finally provides some long-term stability.
That creates a fascinating division for win-total bettors. Denver enters as the defending champion, Kansas City remains dangerous as long as Mahomes returns healthy, Los Angeles has established an 11-win floor over the past two seasons, and Las Vegas is starting over with a rookie franchise quarterback.
Here’s how the AFC West win totals stack up, and where the best Over and Under value may be found in 2026 (win totals via DraftKings):
Denver Broncos OVER 9.5 wins
It took Sean Payton three seasons to transform Denver from a franchise that had missed the playoffs eight consecutive years into an AFC finalist. Now entering their fourth year under Payton and third year with Nix under center, the Broncos don’t need another 14-win season to cash Over 9.5 wins — they simply need to remain among the AFC’s upper tier.
Denver’s 14-3 record warrants some regression, particularly after going 12-3 in one-score games, but its success wasn’t built entirely on fortune. The Broncos ranked third in scoring defense for the second consecutive season under coordinator Vance Joseph and led the NFL with 68 sacks. Most of that defense returns, while Denver used its first draft pick on Texas A&M defensive tackle Tyler Onyedim, adding another piece to an already dominant front.
Can the @Broncos defense break the ’84 Bears sack record? 👀@CameronWolfe | @MarcRoss pic.twitter.com/nkaYQpevRA
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) August 6, 2026
The greater upside may come offensively. Denver’s production slipped last season, and its limitations became glaring after Nix broke his ankle in the divisional-round victory over the Buffalo Bills. Without him, the Broncos managed only 181 total yards in a 10-7 AFC Championship loss to the New England Patriots. Nix is healthy again, enters his third season in Payton’s offense and now has considerably more firepower after Denver traded its first-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for Jaylen Waddle. Pairing Waddle with Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin and Evan Engram gives Nix the deepest collection of receiving options he’s had.
The schedule presents the biggest obstacle. Denver faces Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, San Francisco, the Chargers and defending champion Seattle during a brutal opening six-game stretch, and TeamRankings rates the Broncos’ overall schedule as the eighth-toughest in the NFL. But the slate becomes considerably more manageable afterward, giving Denver an opportunity to accumulate wins during the second half.
Most importantly, the Broncos have margin for error. They could decline by four victories from last season and still finish 10-7, enough to cash the Over. With an elite pass rush, a proven defense, an upgraded receiving corps and a healthy third-year quarterback operating Payton’s system, Denver doesn’t have to duplicate last year’s dominance.
Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 10.5 wins
The Chiefs should rebound from their first losing season of the Andy Reid era, but asking them to get back to 11 victories is a much different proposition. Kansas City was already below .500 before Mahomes suffered his season-ending knee injury in December, suggesting last year’s problems extended well beyond the quarterback’s absence.
General manager Brett Veach responded with a significant roster reset. Kansas City moved on from both starting cornerbacks — one via trade and the other in free agency — and redirected much of its offseason investment toward rebuilding the defense. The Chiefs used their first four draft picks on defensive players, an indication that Veach recognized how much work was necessary on that side of the ball.
The offense wasn’t ignored. Kansas City’s biggest addition was former Seattle running back and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who should provide explosiveness and take pressure off Mahomes. But the larger question is whether Mahomes can immediately return to his previous level following a major knee injury while playing behind a roster undergoing considerable turnover.
Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, and Rashee Rice lead the Chiefs’ explosive offense into training camp. ⚡👑 #ChiefsKingdom #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/y2pSdT1GEn
— Chiefs Kingdom (@ChiefsKingdomCP) August 16, 2026
Then there’s the AFC West. Denver is coming off a 14-win season and an AFC Championship appearance, the Chargers have won 11 games in consecutive seasons under Harbaugh, and even Las Vegas should be more competitive after adding Mendoza and Kirk Cousins. Kansas City no longer has the substantial divisional advantage that helped fuel its nine-year run atop the AFC West.
That’s what makes Under 10.5 wins attractive. The Chiefs can improve considerably, return to playoff contention and still cash the Under at 10-7. With Mahomes returning from a serious injury, significant defensive turnover and six divisional games against increasingly competitive opponents, the margin for reaching 11 victories is considerably thinner than it was during Kansas City’s championship years.
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 5.5 wins (-146)
The Raiders don’t have to become a playoff team to win at least six games. After bottoming out at 3-14, Las Vegas simply needs a three-win improvement, and there are legitimate reasons to expect one under first-year coach Klint Kubiak.
The biggest change is at quarterback. Las Vegas used the first pick on Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, giving the franchise a potential long-term answer at the position. Kubiak arrives after coordinating Seattle’s Super Bowl-winning offense and helping Sam Darnold complete a remarkable career resurgence. His next project is Mendoza, whose rapid development culminated in leading Indiana to the national championship. The Raiders also added Cousins, providing an experienced veteran who will start early while helping Mendoza transition into the NFL without forcing the rookie to carry the offense immediately.
That quarterback structure alone gives Las Vegas a higher floor than it had during last year’s three-win season. Kubiak can build his offense around Mendoza’s strengths while leaning on Cousins if the rookie isn’t ready, rather than allowing quarterback instability to derail the season.
Fernando Mendoza didn’t make any excuses after his NFL preseason debut.
(Via @Sean_Zittel) pic.twitter.com/OoE1UR9MfO
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) August 14, 2026
There’s also value in how low the bar has been set. Six victories cash the Over, meaning the Raiders can still finish well below .500 and beat their number. They don’t need Mendoza to immediately become a star or Kubiak to reproduce Seattle’s championship offense. They need competent quarterback play, improved offensive efficiency and enough progress in close games to turn three wins into six.
Training camp chemistry between the new coaching staff, Mendoza and Cousins only strengthens the case that Las Vegas should be more functional offensively. This remains a rebuilding team in a difficult AFC West, but 5.5 victories leave considerable room for growing pains.
The Raiders don’t have to be good yet. They just have to be substantially better than last year, and the upgrades at coach and quarterback give them a realistic path to six wins.
Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 9.5 wins
The Chargers somehow squeezed 11 victories out of an offense ravaged by injuries last season, but their 11-6 record masks some significant concerns that make Under 9.5 wins worth considering.
The biggest issue remains protecting quarterback Justin Herbert. Los Angeles lost star tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to injuries, and Herbert absorbed the consequences, taking a career-high 54 sacks. Those protection problems eventually became impossible to overcome when the Chargers’ offense managed just three points in its wildcard loss to New England.
Chargers OC Mike McDaniel on building an offense for Justin Herbert: “When I got here, my first task that I bestowed upon myself is I watched every pass play that he’s ever had in the National Football League.”
“His expectations are the highest for himself…I’d say that we’re… pic.twitter.com/vui1Kdws4H
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) May 8, 2026
Slater and Alt are expected back, but Los Angeles’ aggressive offseason investment up front shows how concerned the organization remains. The Chargers added a veteran center in free agency and selected four offensive linemen among their eight draft picks. That’s significant reinforcement, but it also means an offensive line featuring several new pieces must develop chemistry quickly for a schedule TeamRankings has pegged as the second toughest this season.
There is also regression risk after consecutive 11-win seasons under Harbaugh. The AFC West has become considerably more difficult, with Denver coming off a 14-win season, Kansas City expecting a rebound with Mahomes back and Las Vegas potentially improving with a new coaching staff and its No. 1 overall pick.
That makes 10 victories a demanding threshold. Herbert gives Los Angeles a high floor, and getting Slater and Alt back should improve the offense, but the Chargers are operating in one of the NFL’s deepest divisions and still have questions surrounding a unit that collapsed when its protection deteriorated last postseason.
Los Angeles doesn’t have to fall apart for this bet to cash. A modest regression from 11-6 to 9-8 gets it there.
W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at TeamFB7.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.
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