These teams are our favorite picks to go under on their win total projection for the 2026 NFL season.
There is still just under three months to go before the 2026 NFL season kicks off, and all fans can do to pass the time is look back at the offseason moves, talk themselves into the rookies making an immediate impact, parse snippets from the clips and ever-optimistic soundbites that come out of OTAs and buy into why this is going to be a successful year for their team.
TeamFB7 did a bit of that recently in breaking down the five teams with the best chance to exceed their projected win totals.
This time, we’re back with a drearier forecast for the five teams most likely to fall short of their over/under win total as set by the oddsmakers.
(All over/under lines taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
5 NFL Teams Most Likely To Land Under Their Projected Win Total
1. Cincinnati Bengals (10.5)
We appreciate a healthy Joe Burrow as much as anyone — if the Bengals do manage to get that this season — but did the oddsmakers forget how abysmal the Cincinnati defense has been and that it really hasn’t gotten much better?
The one area the Bengals definitely bolstered this offseason was the interior of the defensive line. They traded the No. 10 pick in the draft to the Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence (a three-time Pro Bowl and two-time second-team All-Pro selection) and signed former Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen.
That’ll certainly help, but Cincinnati did nothing to upgrade or even add to the worst group of linebackers in the league.
They also lost one of the NFL’s best edge rushers, Trey Hendrickson, in free agency to the Ravens, and another productive EDGE Joseph Ossai to the Jets. Hendrickson was limited by injury last year, but he totaled 35 sacks over the 2023-24 seasons and the Bengals defense was still bad with him. Which is to say, it’s hard to feel bullish about the unit without him.
Cincinnati replaced those two by egregiously overpaying for former Seahawks rotational edge rusher Boye Mafe (3 years, $60 million), after he mustered all of 2 sacks last season for the Super Bowl champs, and drafting Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell in the second round — the eighth EDGE selected in the draft, falling due to concerns about his short arms.
The Bengals also lost safety Geno Stone (104 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions) and replaced him by overpaying for former Chiefs safety Bryan Cook (3 years, $40.25 million).
It’s hard to see how those changes make the difference for a defense that finished 31st in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed last season.
Burrow was fully healthy in 2024 while Henderickson led the league in sacks and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting … and the Bengals needed a season-ending five-game winning streak just to get to 9-8 then.
But they’re going to suddenly win 11-plus games this year?
With a schedule featuring legit Super Bowl contenders the Ravens (twice), Texans (on the road) and Chiefs, plus other challenging games with the Steelers (twice), Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, Commanders with a healthy Jayden Daniels and Colts? All based on the assumption that Burrow plays a full season, which has only happened three times in six years?
Good luck with that.
We ranked the Bengals 18th in our early power rankings.
Take the under.
2. Cleveland Browns (5.5)
The Browns had a great draft that will help their rebuild, and they further invested this offseason in overhauling their offensive line — that is all true.
They also have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league and just traded away the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett.
The defense was the only reason the Browns eked out a 5-12 record last season. It’s going to be worse, losing coordinator Jim Schwartz (replaced by first-time coordinator Mike Rutenberg) and the NFL sacks leader.
And whether the QB job goes to Deshaun Watson, whose last good season came in 2020 (!!), or Shedeur Sanders, who for as much attention as he gets really wasn’t impressive as rookie with 7 TDs and 10 INTs, it’s hard to be overly excited about the offense.
Even with a better line and intriguing wide receiver draft picks KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.
Also bear in mind, the Browns play the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals — all considerably better teams — twice each, plus the Texans and road games at the Jaguars, Buccaneers and Saints, who are also all better teams.
Cleveland does get the Jets, Titans, Raiders and Giants, but coming up with six wins on that schedule is a stretch.
3. Miami Dolphins (4.5)
This is almost more insulting to the Browns that the oddsmakers only think they’re a game better than the Dolphins, who spent the offseason stripping the roster down and releasing or trading away every expensive veteran they could.
The Dolphins mostly kept their offensive line intact (for that’s worth) and used the 12th pick in the draft on Alabama left tackle Kadyn Proctor. They also return running back De’Von Achane and productive linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson.
But overall they’re at square one on their rebuild.
Signing Malik Willis, who impressed as the Packers’ backup QB the last two seasons, is an intriguing flier, but giving him the worst receiving corps in the NFL saps a lot of that intrigue away.
This is going to be a bad team offensively and defensively, and the Dolphins’ front office is going to be perfectly satisfied ending up with the No. 1 pick in the draft — a QB-rich draft — if it plays out that way.
This team is not winning five games, come on …
4. Las Vegas Raiders (5.5)
It’s not impossible that the Raiders are three wins better than last season, but we wouldn’t bet on it.
Kirk Cousins is expected to open as the starting quarterback and give No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza a longer runway to acclimate to the NFL before being thrust into the starting role. That will help.
And the Raiders did splurge in free agency to make perennial Pro Bowl-er Tyler Linderbaum the highest-paid center in the history of the league, but three-fifths of the worst offensive line in football is still in place and the other new addition, left guard Spencer Burford, was just OK for the 49ers.
Also, Las Vegas has the second-worst receiving corps in the league just ahead of Miami with Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech atop the depth chart. Ideally, none of those three would even be a No. 2 WR on a good team.
The Raiders did spend a lot in free agency, particularly on defense with new linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean, edge rusher Kwity Paye and more. So that unit could be improved, especially if star EDGE Maxx Crosby is back to full strength.
But bear in mind, Las Vegas has two games each against AFC West foes the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers — all potential top-10 teams in the league — as well as nonconference games against more true Super Bowl contenders like the Patriots (on the road), Bills, Rams, 49ers (on the road) and Seahawks.
Six wins is asking a lot for this team.
5. New Orleans Saints (7.5)
There is a ton of hype for the Saints to be a breakout team in 2026, and it just feels a bit premature.
A lot of it is based on the perceived momentum the team had late last season when it won four straight games in December as rookie quarterback Tyler Shough settled into the starting role after taking over midseason.
That’s all well and good, but those wins were over the free-falling Buccaneers (in the midst of losing seven out of eight games), the Jekyll-and-Hyde Panthers, the woeful Jets and the rebuilding Titans. Otherwise, the Saints went 2-11.
Not to belabor the point, but we’re still unconvinced Shough is anything more than Bargain Value Derek Carr.
The NFC South should again be the worst division in the league, though, so anything can happen in those games. But the rest of the Saints schedule is loaded with daunting obstacles with road games against the Lions, Ravens, Bears and Bengals and home games vs. the QB-improved Vikings, Steelers and Packers.
