Just two weeks remain in the NFL’s regular season as division races are decided, playoff spots set and true top contenders clarified.
The Super Bowl race still feels rather wide open — more so than it has in years — which makes every game for the top teams an important measuring point in trying to gauge exactly how they stack up entering the postseason.
We try our best each week to do just that, and once again there was plenty of shakeup in the power rankings.
Yes, we’ve been sleeping on the Jaguars, but no longer after their dominant win in Denver and Trevor Lawrence’s out-of-nowhere transformation the last four games.
But really, the entire top 10 of these rankings were a tough call, from settling on a new No. 1 (for the moment) to trying to figure out what to make of the Eagles and Bills as has been the challenge all season and determining how much we’re truly ready to buy in on the Bears, etc.
Here goes …
True Super Bowl Contenders
1A. Seattle Seahawks (12-3, up 2 spots): Late-season momentum matters and results matter, so we can’t just ignore the Seahawks’ thrilling 38-37 overtime win over the Rams last week. Are we confident Seattle is a better team than Los Angeles? No, not at all. The teams split their regular-season meetings, but Seattle won this latest meeting after rallying from a 16-point fourth quarter deficit (its largest fourth quarter rally ever) — with help from the most controversial two-point conversion of all-time — and has won five straight games and nine of its last 10. For now, we’ll give the Seahawks the No. 1 spot, but they have two tough matchups to finish going cross country to play the Panthers this week and then visiting the 49ers. If Seattle wins out, it claims the NFC West title and No. 1 seed for the playoffs.
1B. Los Angeles Rams (11-4, down 1 spot): The Rams remain the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl with +450 odds, per BetMGM, just ahead of the Seahawks (+600), but they have lost two of their last four games. Of course, the Rams don’t believe they should have lost in Seattle with that wacky 2-point conversion call going in the Seahawks’ favor. As it is, they are now chasing Seattle for the division title and that No. 1 seed in the NFC while closing at the Falcons this week and then home vs. the Cardinals. QB Matthew Stafford remains the overwhelming MVP favorite (-350 odds) with 4,179 passing yards, 40 TDs and 5 INTs.
3. Buffalo Bills (11-4, up 2 spots): Of course, the Bills would follow a momentous road win over the Patriots with a narrow 23-20 win over the Browns. That’s this Buffalo team in a nutshell. With the Eagles coming to town Sunday, it should theoretically bring out the best version of the Bills, who have won four straight games. James Cook has overtaken the NFL’s rushing lead with 1,532 yards (plus 288 receiving yards and 14 total TDs) in a career year. When he and reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen are rolling, this is a hard team to stop.
4. New England Patriots (12-3), up 2 spots): After having its 10-game winning streak snapped with a second-half collapse to the Bills, the Patriots bounced back with a 28-24 road win over the Ravens last week. They can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Jets and Bills loss or tie to the Eagles. RB TreVeyon Henderson was in concussion protocol this week but maintained a chance to play this week.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, up 2 spots): The Eagles’ maligned offense has scored 60 points over the last two games (yes, against the Raiders and Commanders) while showing life at just the right time. Philadelphia has already clinched the NFC East, but the key for the reigning Super Bowl champs is to build real momentum and sustain that offensive progress heading into the playoffs. A Sunday showdown with the Bills in Buffalo is a major opportunity for Philadelphia to show it truly is getting right just in time for its Super Bowl defense.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, up 4 spots): We can’t deny the Jaguars any longer. This is a good football team, plain and simple. That 34-20 win in Denver last week was the definition of a statement win, and the way QB Trevor Lawrence is playing — 12 passing TDs, 0 INTs and 270.5 passing yards per game over the last four games (plus 2 rushing TDs) — is an incredible testament to the work of first-year head coach Liam Coen. Jacksonville, which takes on the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday, has won six straight games and leads the AFC South by a game over the Texans entering the weekend.
7. Denver Broncos (13-3, down 5 spots): The Broncos’ NFL-best 11-game winning streak ended with not just a loss but a humbling lopsided defeat at home to the Jaguars, 34-20, last week. It certainly raises some concerns about a team that had made a habit of eking out close games or rallying from second-half deficits. When matched up with another other NFL’s hottest teams, it was a rather decisive outcome. Then, on Christmas day, Denver was tied with the depleted Chiefs and third-string QB Chris Oladokun until scoring the game-winning touchdown in the final minutes.
8. San Francisco 49ers (11-4, no change): The 49ers are surging offensively while averaging 34.4 points per game during their five-game winning streak, including a season-high last week in a 48-27 win over the Colts. TE George Kittle (ankle) is questionable for a spotlight showdown with the Bears this week, which is significant as Kittle (52 catches for 599 yards and 7 TDs) has been the team’s top pass-catcher (aside from RB Christian McCaffrey). San Francisco is in the playoffs already, but it’s also still in contention in the wild NFC West, tied with the Rams and a game back of the Seahawks.
Playoff Teams
9. Chicago Bears (11-4, up 2 spots): It feels like the Bears may still be a year away from truly pushing toward the top of this list, but there’s something special about this team and its knack for clutch finishes, like QB Caleb Williams’ game-winning 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore in overtime vs. the Packers last week — a win that positions Chicago in control of its path to the franchise’s first NFC North title since 2018. The Bears can clinch with either a win at San Francisco on Sunday night or a Packers loss to the Ravens on Saturday. Regardless, first-year coach Ben Johnson has done an amazing job taking over a team that won 5 games last year and turning into a contender in one season, while helping develop Williams into the star he was drafted to be. The second-year QB and former No. 1 overall pick has passed for 3,400 yards, 23 TDs and 6 INTs (plus 369 rushing yards and 3 TDs).
10. Houston Texans (10-5, down 1 spot): The 1985 Bears. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens. The 2025 Houston Texans? There is precedent for riding an elite defense all the way to a Super Bowl championship, and that’s the Texans’ hope as they have won seven straight games while leading the NFL in both yards allowed (272.3 per game) and points allowed (16.6 PPG). Houston has a huge showdown with the Chargers on Saturday night and can clinch its playoff spot with a win/tie or a Colts loss/tie on Sunday.
11. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, down 7 spots): The Packers at full strength were a true Super Bowl contender, but defensive game-wrecker Micah Parsons (torn ACL) was lost for the season earlier this month and QB Jordan Love is dealing with a concussion that took him out early vs. the Bears and will keep him out Saturday vs. the Ravens as Malik Willis fills in. The Packers have already secured a playoff spot, but with two losses in a row they have likely ceded the NFC North to the Bears, who have a 1.5-game lead with two weeks to go.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, no change): The Chargers have won four straight despite their depleted offensive line, but that could be a bad matchup Saturday vs. the Texans NFL-best defense. Los Angeles has clinched a playoff spot and remains alive in the AFC West, needing a win Saturday to stay a game back of the Broncos. Jim Harbaugh has posted back-to-back 11-win seasons in his first two years at the helm, which is the first time the franchise has done that since 2006-07.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, up 1 spot): The Steelers can clinch the AFC North this weekend with a win or tie vs. the Browns, or a Ravens’ loss or tie vs. the Packers. Pittsburgh has won three in a row over the Ravens, Dolphins and Lions but remains without star pass rusher T.J. Watt (lung). Overall, the Steelers are probably pleased with what they’ve gotten from QB Aaron Rodgers (2,860 passing yards, 23 TDs and 7 INTs) this season.
Playoff Fringe
14. Carolina Panthers (8-7, up 4 spots): The Panthers can clinch the NFC South with a win over the Seahawks or a Buccaneers loss/tie. Otherwise, Carolina and Tampa Bay will clash next week with the division and playoff spot on the line. The Panthers have been the most unpredictable team in the league while alternating wins and losses the last nine games.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8, up 2 spots): As noted, the Bucs are still alive in the playoff hunt, but they sure don’t look like a playoff team while losing six of their last seven games. QB Baker Mayfield has gone from early season MVP contender to playing like one of the worst QBs in the league down the stretch with 7 TDs and 6 INTs over the last six games while being held under 200 passing yards in all but one of those games. Tampa Bay faces a must-win matchup with the Dolphins on Sunday.
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-7, no change): The Colts need to win out, have the Texans lose out and get some tiebreaker help to make the playoffs. That’s unlikely, but hey, it’s been fun watching 44-year-old Philip Rivers play football again.
17. Baltimore Ravens (7-8, down 2 spots): Lamar Jackson is a two-time NFL MVP and one of the most talented players in the league when he’s right, but he hasn’t been right most of this season and the Ravens fan base is frustrated as he deals with another injury (back) as the team’s season slips away. Baltimore has to win Saturday night at Green Bay to keep its fleeting playoff hopes alive. Jackson is questionable for the game after leaving the Ravens’ loss to the Patriots early.
Eliminated But Still Capable Spoilers
18. Minnesota Vikings (8-8, up 1 spot): Head coach Kevin O’Connell has really done a heck of a job this season while being saddled with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. From staying competitive with backup Carson Wentz until he was lost to injury, riding the rollercoaster that is second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, and then managing to get a 23-10 win over the Lions on Christmas day despite undrafted third-stringer Max Brosmer completing 9 of 16 passes for 51 yards. That was Minnesota’s fourth straight win.
19. Detroit Lions (8-8, down 6 spots): What happened to this team? That’s the question the Lions will spend the offseason answering after being officially eliminated from the playoffs with an embarrassing 23-10 loss to the Vikings on Christmas day, losing a must-win game despite Minnesota’s aforementioned lack of a passing game. It’s fair to wonder if head coach Dan Campbell wasn’t just being propped up by offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in recent years.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1, no change): Dak Prescott threw for 307 yards and TDs in a 30-23 Christmas day win over the Commanders, while RB Malik Davis rushed for a career-high 103 yards on 20 carries.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (5-10, up 2 spots): After venting about his dissatisfaction with the state of the team and enduring so much losing, QB Joe Burrow delivered a vintage performance last week with 309 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs in blowing out the Dolphins.
22. Atlanta Falcons (6-9, up 2 spots): The Falcons have won two straight over the Buccaneers and Cardinals with veteran QB Kirk Cousins is showing he’s still capable with 5 TDs and 1 INT these last two weeks.
23. New Orleans Saints (5-10, up 2 spots): The Saints get bumped up a tier after three straight wins over the Buccaneers, Panthers and Jets. Rookie QB Tyler Shough threw for a season-high 308 yards last week, while WR Chris Olave has his third 1,000-yard season in four years (92 catches for 1,044 yards and a career-high 8 TDs).
Nothing To See Here
24. Miami Dolphins (6-9, down 2 spots): Rookie Quinn Ewers passed for 260 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs in his first career start in a 45-21 loss to the Bengals. After showing a lot of resilience and fight in the middle of the season, the Dolphins have looked overmatched the last two weeks.
25. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10, down 4 spots): The Chris Oladokun Era is off to a rough start as the third-string QB managed just 66 passing yards and a TD in a 20-13 loss to the Broncos on Christmas.
26. Washington Commanders (4-12, no change): The Commanders have lost eight straight and 10 out of 11 games (beating only the Giants in that span), including a 30-23 loss to the Cowboys on Christmas day while turning to journeyman third-string QB Josh Johnson (198 yards, 0 TDs).
27. Cleveland Browns (3-12, up 4 spots): Myles Garrett needs one more sack to break the NFL single-season record of 22.5, held by T.J. Watt and Michael Strahan. The Browns have lost four straight, but they kept it close with the Bills in a 23-20 defeat last week.
28. New York Giants (2-13, down 1 spot): The Giants play the Raiders this week in a game that could determine which team gets the No. 1 overall draft pick. New York has lost nine straight, and rookie QB Jaxson Dart is coming off his worst game as a pro (7-of-13 passing for 33 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT and 5 sacks).
29. Tennessee Titans (3-12, up 1 spot): The Titans picked up another win — their second in the last three games — in beating the Chiefs 26-9 last week. Cam Ward had one of his better games, completing 21 of 28 passes for 228 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, but the jury is still out on the No. 1 overall pick. Ward has passed for 2,866 yards, 13 TDs and 7 INTs overall.
30. Arizona Cardinals (3-12, down 2 spots): Arizona has lost seven straight games while giving up 34.7 points per game in that stretch. That about sums it up.
31. New York Jets (3-12, down 2 spots): QB Brady Cook isn’t it for the Jets. Just like Justin Fields wasn’t it. And Zach Wilson wasn’t it. And Aaron Rodgers wasn’t even a short-term fix, nor was Tyrod Taylor, etc. New York needs to find its quarterback in this draft and hope it does better than the last time when it wasted the No. 2 overall pick on Wilson.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, no change): The Raiders and Giants are the favorites for the No. 1 pick in the draft as they play this weekend, so there’s some intrigue. But that’s about it for the Raiders, who this week shut down their two best players, star TE Brock Bowers and DE Maxx Crosby.
