The NFC West sweeps the top three slots after an eventful week of action leading into Christmas.
If you’ve ever dreamed of bringing the drama, controversy — and, sure, the silliness — of the College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL level, consider starting your holiday season on an appropriately thankful note.
The NFL postseason is sorted by the conventional — and effective, at least for a league 32 teams — numerical method with the occasional tiebreaker. But what if the CFP committee made its way to the pros?
TeamFB7 theorizes such a scenario below, attempting to envision a realistic bracket based on what we’ve seen since the CFP was introduced in 2014. Only the most elite division winners, essentially serving as mini-college conferences in this exercise are granted automatic entry, much like the current edition of the CFP. AFC/NFC loyalties were not considered, opening up the possibility to an uneven team distribution. Our rankings will feature 14 teams, much like the real NFL bracket, to maintain consistency.
Remember, if your team is in it, then of course these rankings can be taken serious. If not, lighten up, this isn’t how the NFL decides it — for now.
Without further ado …
Previous Rankings
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Last Week: 4th
The Seahawks surge into first with last Thursday night’s thrilling comeback victory over the Los Angeles Rams. They’re the third team to occupy the spot this season and second from the mighty NFC West next to the aforementioned horned helmets. Destiny is firmly placed in the Seahawks’ palms through firm tests over the last couple of weeks: they’ll face the surging Carolina Panthers on Sunday before redemption potentially awaits in the Week 18 finale against San Francisco.
2. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
Last Week: 1st
Even with a relative collapse in the Pacific Northwest in primetime, it’s hard to punish the Rams too much for splitting their yearly pair with Seattle (which were decided by a combined 3 points). They also get the nod over the Niners for handling business in a more firm fashion (a two-possession win back on Nov. 9). In the rare event they’re looking to finish atop this list, they’ll have get by with a little help from their friends: with Atlanta and Arizona left on their schedule, there won’t be much of an opportunity for the Rams to show if they learned anything from going sweepless in Seattle.
3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
Last Week: 3rd
It was very tempting to place the 49ers in the top spot considering their current advantage in the head-to-head set against the Seahawks, but Seattle’s superior strength of victory (the Niners’ other major wins come against the Rams in overtime and against a Carolina group leading the mediocre NFC South) gives them the edge for the time being. If/when the Niners finish in the top spot in both these rankings and the wild, wild West, no one can say they didn’t earn it: the streaking Chicago Bears meet up with the Niners in Week 17’s edition of “Sunday Night Football.”
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)
Last Week: 5th
Behind Trevor’s Lawrence’s career-best surge and Travon Walker’s war of words with the dwindling Duval doubters, the Jaguars are the top team in the AFC based on these rankings, having downed Denver in convincing fashion out in the Rockies. The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t do them a favor in Foxborough but the Jags continue an uncanny trend: at .467, no team on the active AFC bracket has better strength of victory, so it’s downright impossible to compared Jacksonville to a Group of Five invader.
5. Denver Broncos (12-3)
Last Week: 2nd
Even with the week prior’s intraconference win over Green Bay (which instantly lost some luster considering Saturday’s events), the slightest misstep was going to create some great analysis of Denver’s 11-game winning streak — which features three one-possession wins over potential playoff foes. The mighty defense struggled to stop the Jaguars last week and there’s suddenly a dogfight for the top seed in the AFC and the bye that comes with it. Fortunately for a team that has taken care of business for most of this season, they’ll face the reeling Chiefs on Christmas night before getting one last proving ground against the Chargers.
6. New England Patriots (12-3)
Last Week: 7th
New England is suddenly in contention to return to the top seed they left unoccupied once Tom Brady left. A December win over Baltimore certainly doesn’t carry the value many thought it would in September, but the way the Patriots composed themselves in an uncomfortable situation in primetime should certainly count for something. While keeping an eye on the Broncos’ activities, New England will look to handle business against divisional also-rans New York and Miami.
7. Buffalo Bills (11-4)
Last Week: 6th
While it still feels like the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC — and maybe beyond — they’re not going to get any style points for a one-possession win over the calamities of Cleveland. Still able to work with their split of the divisional match with the Patriots, Buffalo might be able to at least leapfrog them in these rankings thanks to a better strength of victory, if that means anything.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
Last Week: 9th
The Chargers handily handled business in Arlington, being the latest team to take advantage of a Dallas Cowboys defense that leaves plenty to be desired. With their playoff spot clinched, they can help add some relevance to their regular season finale against Denver with a win over the Texans on Saturday. A Sept. 21 win in SoCal now looms particularly large, granting the Chargers control of their own destiny.
9. Houston Texas (10-5)
Last Week: 8th
For all that the Jaguars have accomplished, they can’t shake the surging Texans, who have now won seven games in a row. Their most recent triumph, a narrow win over the busted Las Vegas Raiders, won’t earn them any style points and produces a small drop in these rankings but there’s an instant opportunities to make things right in a national window, as they’ll seek to bomb the Bolts on Saturday late afternoon.
10. Chicago Bears (11-4)
Last Week: 11th
Just about three minutes of regulation change the course of destiny in the race for the NFC North division title and the home playoff game that comes with it. It was followed by Caleb Williams’ fateful fling to DJ Moore, which served as the capper to a thrilling win over the Packers. Requiring a few extra minutes to defeat a Packers group that was missing both Jordan Love and Micah Parsons might raise a few eyebrows among Chicago’s lingering skeptics, but a Sunday night tilt against the 49ers should offer gold in the form of conference clarity.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
Last Week: 12th
More Christmas sweets, namely the red treats that came out of Washington, allowed the Eagles to breathe easy and officially secure the NFC East crown. The woebegone Commanders and Raiders fell victim to a resurrected Philly offense, which has enjoyed a newfound blast from AJ Brown. Though likely destined for the Wild Card round (albeit as a host), they have a great chance to generate some momentum with a visit to Buffalo on Sunday late afternoon.
12. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
Last Week: 10th
The Packers may have averted a major disaster when it comes to the status of Love but the Parsons-less pass rush creates new lingering concerns. Green Bay secured a playoff spot with the Vikings playing Christmas spoiler at home against Detroit ahead of a Saturday primetime clash against the equally-desperate Ravens. A chance to breathe easy became snowflakes last weekend, as the Packers dropped a crucial clash with the Bears.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
Last Week: 13th
How much trust the Steelers have built is still up for debate but they at least managed to handle business against a Detroit team that was also fighting for its playoff life. One probably can’t take anything for granted in Pittsburgh, especially with DK Metcalf suspended for the last two regular season games thanks to his altercation with a fan. But if the Steelers really need Metcalf to defeat the modern Cleveland Browns — or any form of the Browns, frankly — that says an uncomfortable bit about them.
14. Carolina Panthers (8-7)
Last Week: Not Ranked
With the Colts finally falling a little too far, the leaders of the NFC South can no longer be denied a spot in this poll. For the time being, that title belongs to the Panthers, who took a clutch victory from the Buccaneers on Sunday. The battle has been won but the war is far from over: Carolina probably shouldn’t bank on Tampa Bay falling to the Miami Dolphins but that shouldn’t stop them from trying to make a statement against the streaking Seahawks. Despite its sweep at the hands of the Saints, the Panthers do own a victory over the Los Angeles Rams earlier this season.
Top Riser: Seattle (+3)
Biggest Faller: Denver (-3)
Fell Out: Indianapolis (14th)
First Four Out: Indianapolis, Baltimore, Detroit, Tampa Bay
Geoff Magliocchetti is on X @GeoffJMags
