One division leader takes a tumble in these hypothetical seedings as the NFL inches closer to Christmas and its own major holidays.
If you’ve ever dreamed of bringing the drama, controversy — and, sure, the silliness — of the College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL level, consider starting your holiday season on an appropriately thankful note.
The NFL postseason is sorted by the conventional — and effective, at least for a league 32 teams — numerical method with the occasional tiebreaker. But what if the CFP committee made its way to the pros?
TeamFB7 theorizes such a scenario below, attempting to envision a realistic bracket based on what we’ve seen since the CFP was introduced in 2014. Only the most elite division winners, essentially serving as mini-college conferences in this exercise are granted automatic entry, much like the current edition of the CFP. AFC/NFC loyalties were not considered, opening up the possibility to an uneven team distribution. Our rankings will feature 14 teams, much like the real NFL bracket, to maintain consistency.
Remember, if your team is in it, then of course these rankings can be taken serious. If not, lighten up, this isn’t how the NFL decides it — for now.
Without further ado …
Previous Rankings
1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
Last Week: 1st
NFC mathematics are on the side of the City of Angels, as the Rams put up a shootout victory over the increasingly desperate Detroit Lions to become the first team etched onto the real bracket. LA’s mettle at the top will be instantly tested, as it’ll face its division rival from the Pacific Northwest in Thursday night’s week opener. Obviously the Rams have bigger concerns than this list, but a win over Seattle should essentially wrap up their spot in this rankings’ top trio.
2. Denver Broncos (12-2)
Last Week: 2nd
A case certainly could’ve been made to move the Broncos back into the top spot after they booted the Green Bay Packers from the NFC’s top spot in an intraconference thriller, but it felt a little too harsh to drop the Rams behind them after a sterling offensive performance. With that in mind, though, Denver certainly proved it could stick around in a game where the scoreboard resembles a pinball machine: Bo Nix threw 4 touchdowns in the win over the Packers and the trademark Denver defense rose to the occasion with a Patrick Surtain II interception. Another brilliant opportunity awaits with the Jacksonville Jaguars making their way west.
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Last Week: 4th
Still ahead of the Seahawks on account of their current head-to-head tiebreaker, the 49ers returned from their bye week in style by taking care of business against lowly Tennessee. The 49ers put up over 400 yards of offense in a game for the first time since early October and Brock Purdy threw 3 touchdown passes. San Francisco even got some good news on the medical front, as Ricky Pearsall recovered from an early ankle ailment to stand as the Niners’ top receiver.
4. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Last Week: 5th
Seattle, namely kicker Jason Myers, stunted the NFL’s feel-good story of the year by downing Phillip Rivers and the reeling Indianapolis Colts in a slow-paced, slim victory. One of the most consequential Thursday night games in quite some time, the aforementioned visit from the Rams, would also afford Seattle a permanent spot in the top three, and maybe even a bye in both the hypothetical realm and reality. Even a loss wouldn’t drop the Seahawks too far considering they own wins over several neighbors on this list.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Last Week: 6th
Jacksonville might be ready to join the SEC with the way it has bullied subpar competition late in the season as it makes its move up these rankings. The latest victim was the New York Jets, who saw Trevor Lawrence reach the end zone on six different occasions in a 48-20 win. There’s one more test coming this week in the form of a visit to top-ranked Denver and there’s plenty on the line: the Jaguars need a little help but with the reeling Colts and Titans occupying the last two slots on their schedule, suddenly the top seed in the AFC (and the real bye that comes with it) is a possibility they realistically think about.
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Last Week: 7th
It may be Christmas, but the Bills channeled their inner Halloween by exorcising the demon that’s probably been haunting them since Columbus Day: a sizable comeback victory over the New England Patriots helped them inch their way back into the AFC East divisional race and they perhaps got the best news of all upon learning of the Kansas City Chiefs’ elimination. With that final development, the Bills are perhaps out of excuses for not falling rear end-backwards into the Super Bowl at this rate … but they’re absolutely brimming with momentum.
7. New England Patriots (11-3)
Last Week: 3rd
A four-spot drop, especially after falling to further Josh Allen wizardry, seems a little harsh but binging on sweet treats — while acceptable during the Christmas season — is coming back to haunt the Patriots before their new year’s resolution kicks in. So much of the College Football Playoff rankings rely on a sense of “what have you done for the committee lately,” and the Patriots’ resume is slowly deteriorating: their impressive wins beyond Orchard Park (the mediocre NFC South co-leaders in Carolina and Tampa Bay) fluctuate in value week-to-week and they continue to navigate injuries on defense, namely those of Christian Elliss and Marcus Jones.
8. Houston Texans (9-5)
Last Week: 9th
With the Patriots pacified, at least temporarily, the Texans more or less take over the task of holiday gluttony: having earned some treats through wins over the Jaguars and Bills, not to mention hipster victories over the Colts and Chiefs before that was cool, the Texans now get a chance to fatten up their division case against the Cardinals (victims of a three-possession loss to Houston over the weekend) before the reeling Raiders come visit this time around.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Last Week: 10th
Things were a little muted for the Bolts on Sunday but they made one of the loudest statements of all by zapping the Chiefs out of contention. It was a win where they made the most of an ailing Justin Herbert and put forth another strong defensive effort that kept their divisional title hopes alive. The Chargers can keep rolling with the terminator mantra on Sunday, as they’ll face the suddenly-reeling Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.
10. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
Last Week: 8th
It’ll go down in the standings as a rare tie, but the Packers’ equal score with the Cowboys in prime time feels like a loss at this point. The week prior’s win over the Bears allows them to inch ahead of the Windy City for the time being, but not only could that change as soon as Saturday (as they head to Soldier Field for a rematch), they’re dealing with a late lack of Christmas spirit. The ultimate gift, for example, in Micah Parsons is done for the year with a torn ACL, joining an injured reserve list that resembles a Wisconsinite’s Pro Bowl ballot. That won’t hurt (pun, alas, intended) the Packers immediately, but it’ll be worth watching how they respond when the lights are brightest (and coldest).
11. Chicago Bears (10-4)
Last Week: 11th
On a week of limited movement as is, it feels a little mean to keep the Bears stationed where they are. But again, unless you reside in the SEC, wins over clearly-overmatched competition don’t impress anyone at this time of year. Handling business against the Cleveland Browns at least helped Chicago take the lead back in the NFC North of reality, and it can deal a near-fatal bite on Saturday at home when the ailing Packers visit for the holidays.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
Last Week: 12th
The Eagles must’ve been high up on Santa’s nice list, because relief from a recent cold snap has come in both quality and quantity: Philadelphia posted a rare NFL shutout over the hapless Raiders and no doubt took a little extra pleasure in seeing the Cowboys fall to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The Eagles can outright clinch the NFC East crown, an honor that was inching toward Group of Five-bid infamy, with a win over woebegone Washington on Saturday.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Last Week: 14th
One division was getting left out on this list and that dubious honor belongs to the NFC South after the Steelers handily handled business against the Dolphins, mauling Miami and possibly ending the Tua Tagovailoa era down south. Despite their relatively pedestrian mark, the Steelers’ strength of victory (.429) is tied for best among AFC division leaders. Beating Detroit on the road won’t raise that number by too much but it’d still be nice to eat away at Baltimore’s hope before Pittsburgh goes into what should be a win over Cleveland in two weeks.
14. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Last Week: 13th
With due respect to the narrow NFC South race, which should at least be partly resolved after the Buccaneers and Panthers do battle on Sunday, the respective combatants can’t lose to their lesser divisional brethren and expect to move up in these rankings. Thus sticking around for at least one more week are the chaotic Colts, who at least kept things respectable against the mighty Seahawks. Barring further Rivers magic, the 49ers, Texans, and/or Jaguars will likely be more than happy to put Indianapolis out of its misery over the next three weeks.
Top Risers: San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, Houston, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh (+1)
Biggest Faller: New England (-4)
Fell Out: None
First Four Out: Baltimore, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Geoff Magliocchetti is on X @GeoffJMags
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