Entering Week 16 of the NFL season, 13 teams have already been officially eliminated from the playoffs while others cling to fleeting postseason hopes and division battles hang in the balance.
But the Super Bowl picture still looks muddled with a depth of viable contenders either building momentum or trying to right themselves in the final weeks.
The significant action this week starts early with a showdown of two 11-win division rivals — and two of the top three teams in our revised Power Rankings — Thursday night with the Rams visiting the Seahawks.
We’ll get more into that matchup and every other NFL storyline as we break down the league 1-32 as always.
True Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3, no change): The top spot in the power rankings is up for grabs this week (well, every week, but especially this week) as the Rams have a Thursday night road test against the fellow 11-win Seahawks. Los Angeles won the first meeting at home, 21-19, last month while intercepting Sam Darnold four times in that game. The rematch on the road will either strengthen the Rams’ standing as the best team in the league or open the door for Denver or Seattle to move up. The Rams are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, per BetMGM, at +350 odds while the Seahawks are next at +700, so this is as good as Thursday night football gets (non-Thanksgiving variety). Rams QB Matthew Stafford is also the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP for the first time in his long career with 3,722 passing yards, 37 TDs and 5 INTs, but he has to finish the job — and a December road game in Seattle is a big moment in that regard. Los Angeles will be without star receiver Davante Adams for the matchup.
2. Denver Broncos (12-2, up 3 spots): The Broncos are for real. That’s what they showed in that 34-26 spotlight win over the Packers last week, extending their NFL-best winning streak to 11 games. QB Bo Nix was incredible, completing 23 of 34 passes for 302 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. No matter how many close games Denver has had along the way (so, so many close games), it has proven its defense and its steely second-year QB dependably deliver in the biggest moments. Having a future Hall of Fame coach in Sean Payton helps too. Denver has the best record in the NFL and closes against the Jaguars, Chiefs and Chargers.
3. Seattle Seahawks (11-3, no change): Seattle will be on the move in these power rankings one direction or the other after this week and this Thursday night showdown with the Rams. If the Seahawks get swept by Los Angeles after narrowly beating the Colts at home (18-16 on a 56-yard Jason Myers field goal in the final minute) last week, especially if Sam Darnold struggles again in a big moment after throwing 4 interceptions in the earlier 21-19 loss to the Rams, then they’ll have to get knocked down a bit. But if Seattle wins this game, adding to notable wins over the Jaguars, Texans and Steelers earlier this season, that would truly reinforce it as a top Super Bowl contender.
4. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, down 2 spots): It remains to be seen how the Packers’ defense — which had really come on the second half of the season — adjusts to losing game-wrecker Micah Parsons to a torn ACL. It could be damning, or QB Jordan Love could put the team on his back. Love had his first multi-INT game of the season in the 34-26 loss at Denver last week and will need to be at his best the rest of the way as the Packers head to Chicago this week in a massive NFC North showdown (the Bears have a half-game lead in the division) before closing against the Ravens and at the suddenly-spunky Vikings.
5. Buffalo Bills (10-4, up 1 spot): Just as naturally as they routinely come out flat in games they’re expected to win, the Bills do often rise to the occasion in their biggest games (in the regular season, at least). Down 21-0 in the second quarter, Josh Allen led Buffalo on five straight touchdown drives to rally back for a seismic 35-31 win in New England, earning a season-split with the Patriots in the much-anticipated rematch. That’s three straight wins for the Bills as Josh Allen is mounting a late charge in the MVP race (3,276 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 535 rushing yards, 12 TDs). Buffalo closes at Cleveland and home vs. Philadelphia and the New York Jets.
6. New England Patriots (11-3, down 2 spots): The Patriots’ 10-game winning streak was snapped in painful fashion in blowing that 24-7 halftime lead to the Bills. But that doesn’t change the overall perception of these Pats much, especially as TreVeyon Henderson continues his ascent (14 carries for 148 yards and 2 TDs in that game). Drake Maye had his worst passing game of the season (155 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) but he did rush for 43 yards and 2 TDs in the loss. New England closes at the Ravens, at the Jets and home vs. the Dolphins.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, no change): We’re not going to overreact to the Eagles’ obliteration of the hapless Raiders — a 31-0 win in which they held Las Vegas to 75 yards and Jalen Hurts completed 12 of 15 passes for 175 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. But it did snap a three-game losing streak and flash the ever-present potential of this team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles play the Commanders twice sandwiched around a road game vs. the Bills to close out the schedule.
8. San Francisco 49ers (10-4, no change): The 49ers have had a favorable stretch of schedule in winning four straight games over the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Titans, and maybe that’s skewed the perspective a little. But there’s just a lot of built-up equity for a Kyle Shanahan team building momentum with a health Christian McCaffrey closing in on some history, QB Brock Purdy (295 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 44 rushing yards vs. the Titans last week) and TE George Kittle.
San Francisco has some tough tests remaining, though, at the Colts and home vs. the Bears and Seahawks. We’ll know a lot more about this team after this closing stretch.
9. Houston Texans (9-5, up 2 spots): The Texans defense continues to dominate and has now held 12 of 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Houston leads the NFL in both yards allowed (269.2 per game) and points allowed (16.3 per game). That’s why we’ve finally bumped the Texans into the top tier — there’s a blueprint for elite defensive teams winning Super Bowls even with modest offensive production. Houston is a game back of the next team on this list in the AFC South standings but won the most recent head-to-head meeting. There’s some uncertainty about the backfield this week as emerging rookie Woody Marks left with an ankle injury last game and was still not practicing as of Thursday, while Nick Chubb (ribs) returned to practice this week and Jawhar Jordan is coming off a breakout 101-yard rushing performance in their stead. But it really shouldn’t matter either way with the Raiders coming to town.
Playoff Teams
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, up 2 spots): It was a coin flip for the 10/11 spots between the Jaguars and Bears. Jacksonville has really turned it up down the stretch, winning five straight games with four of those coming by 17 points or more. QB Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best game of his entire career, passing for 330 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs and rushing for a team-high 51 yards and a score in a 48-20 win over the Jets. He also hasn’t turned the ball over in three straight games. First-year head coach Liam Coen deserves to be prominently discussed in the crowded coach of the year race. Jacksonville has a one-game lead over Houston in the AFC South and closes at Denver, at Indianapolis and home vs. Tennessee.
11. Chicago Bears (10-4, down 1 spot): The Bears dominated across the board in a 31-3 win over the Browns last week, intercepting Shedeur Sanders 3 times while QB Caleb Williams (242 passing yards, 2 TDs and 0 INT) and RB D’Andre Swift (98 yards, 2 TDs) piled up the points. Chicago has won 10 of its last 12 games with first-year head coach Ben Johnson probably the favorite for coach of the year honors.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, up 1 spot): The Chargers move up a tier in our rankings after their 16-13 win over the Chiefs. They’re currently slotted as the top wildcard team after wins in three straight and six of their last seven. The offensive line remains an issue, but the defense is playing lights-out for Los Angeles, ranking tied for second in the NFL in total defense (279.1 yards per game allowed) while holding opponents to 14.3 points per game in those last six wins. The Chargers head to Dallas this weekend.
Playoff Fringe
13. Detroit Lions (8-6, down 4 spots): Expected to be one of the top teams in the NFL again this year, the Lions instead are facing long odds to even make the playoffs.
Detroit has alternated wins and losses the last 10 games but now needs to win three in a row over the Steelers, Vikings and Bears to have a shot the postseason.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, no change): The Steelers need one more win to continue coach Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak of never having a losing season. Of course, that’s not really the goal — the Steelers’ path to the playoffs is holding onto their one-game lead in the AFC North over the Ravens. Pittsburgh has a tough matchup at Detroit on Sunday before closing against the Browns and those Ravens. Star pass rusher T.J. Watt looks likely to miss a second straight game after a procedure on his lung last week.
15. Baltimore Ravens (7-7, no change): There’s some fight left in the Ravens yet. They snapped a two-game skid with a 24-0 win over the Bengals to remain a game back of the Steelers in the AFC North. But Baltimore has one of the toughest closing stretches with the Patriots at home and road games against the Packers and Steelers. Also, Lamar Jackson still doesn’t look like Lamar Jackson (150 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 rushes for 26 yards in that win over Cincinnati).
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-6, no change): Philip “Old Man” Rivers nearly did it last week in his first NFL game in five years, as the Colts held a late lead over the Seahawks before Jason Myers won it for Seattle with a 56-yard field goal in the final minute. Indianapolis has lost four straight following an 8-2 start and is playing for its season Monday night vs. San Francisco.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, up 3 spots): Coach Todd Bowles called out the commitment and heart of his players last week after blowing a 14-point lead in a loss to the Falcons. He says he’s confident that message has been received well. We’ll see. Tampa Bay has lost five out of six games heading into a pivotal NFC South showdown with the Panthers on Sunday.
18. Carolina Panthers (7-7, no change): Typical Panthers. For the second time this season, they followed a stunning upset win (on the road vs. the Packers last month, vs. the Rams this time) with deflating loss to the lowly Saints. Carolina may be tied for the NFC South lead with the Buccaneers, but it can’t be trusted in any matchup.
Officially Eliminated From Playoffs (Plus 1)
19. Minnesota Vikings (6-8, up 4 spots): The J.J. McCarthy narrative is a wild one, eh? From nearly universally panned as perhaps the worst highly-drafted QB since Zach Wilson a couple weeks ago to leading two straight wins and Griddy-ing his way into the end zone in that 34-26 win over Dallas. What a time to be alive.
20. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1, down 3 spots): What a deflating couple weeks for the Cowboys. Dallas had won three straight games with momentous victories over the Chiefs and Eagles to claw back into the playoff hunt only to get crushed by the Lions and lose at home to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. The Cowboys are the only team in this tier not “officially” eliminated from the postseason yet, but they almost certainly will be after this week.
21. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8, down 2 spots): The Chiefs are officially eliminated from the playoffs after reaching the AFC championship game the last seven years, making five Super Bowls and winning three in that time. The Chargers dealt Kansas City its fifth loss in six games (16-13) and knocked QB Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) out for the season.
22. Miami Dolphins (6-8, no change): QB Tua Tagovailoa has officially been benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers as the Dolphins’ four-game winning streak ended decisively in a 28-15 loss to the Steelers that wasn’t remotely that close.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10, down 2 spots): Tough times in Cincinnati. Star QB Joe Burrow is questioning his current NFL existence — “If it’s not fun then what am I doing it for?” — as the Bengals lost 24-0 to the Ravens to ensure they’ll miss the playoffs for a third straight season.
24. Atlanta Falcons (5-9, no change): The Falcons and veteran QB Kirk Cousins showed they can still at least play spoiler down the stretch, rallying from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to stun the desperate Buccaneers, 29-28, last week.
Nothing To See Here, Folks
25. New Orleans Saints (4-10, no change): Three of the Saints’ four wins this season have come against the two teams tied for the NFC South division lead (the Panthers and Buccaneers). Go figure. New Orleans has won two straight as rookie QB Tyler Shough continues his extended audition. He had his best game yet in a 20-17 win over the Panthers last week, passing for 272 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs and rushing for 32 yards.
26. Washington Commanders (4-10, up 1 spot): QB Jayden Daniels has officially (mercifully) been shut down for the season. Marcus Mariota hasn’t been great in relief, but he got the job done in a win over the Giants last week with an efficient 211 passing yards, a TD and 43 rushing yards.
27. New York Giants (2-12, down 1 spot): Make it eight straight losses for the Giants after a 29-21 defeat to the Commanders. The return of rookie QB Jaxson Dart hasn’t made a difference the last two games as New York doesn’t have a full-fledged head coach, its top running back or its top receiver and is just playing out the string on yet another lost season.
28. Arizona Cardinals (3-11, no change): Remember when this team delivered a rather dominant 27-17 win at Dallas on Monday Night Football? No, trust us, it happened. The Cardinals have lost six in a row since then, including a 40-20 blowout to the Texans last week.
29. New York Jets (3-11, up 1 spot): Undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook tossed 3 picks in his first start in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars. Cook will continue to start nonetheless, the team announced.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-12, up 1 spot): The Titans have lost eight of their last nine games with only a narrow win over the Browns breaking up the streak.
31. Cleveland Browns (3-11, down 2 spots): The Browns got rolled over 31-3 by the Bears last week as Shedeur Sanders tossed 3 INTs.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12, no change): Is Pete Carroll going to be one-and-done in Las Vegas? That’s looking more likely. The Raiders lost eight straight and lost 31-0 for the second time this season, this time totaling 75 yards vs. the Eagles (after previously totaling 95 to lose by the same margin to the Chiefs). Las Vegas needs a total rebuild, and a 74-year-old coach probably isn’t the right match for that process.
