It’s fully understandable, logical and, frankly, justified that the New England Patriots were so overlooked in the preseason and given 80-1 odds to win the 2026 Super Bowl, coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and all.
It’s not so obvious why the Seattle Seahawks were also such overwhelming underdogs, given 60-1 odds to win it all, per BetMGM.
Unless it is …
Seattle went 10-7 in coach Mike Macdonald’s first season and only got better as it went along, winning six of its final eight games while having the best record of any NFC non-playoff team by two wins.
That sure sounds like a team on a clear upward trajectory under a good young head coach with a lot of assets already in place around the field, and one that then felt it upgraded the most important position of all by trading quarterback Geno Smith to the Raiders and signing free agent Sam Darnold fresh off a career year.
So, why oh why would Seattle enter the season with even worse Super Bowl odds than the Arizona Cardinals (50-1)?
There can be only one reason, really.
Darnold’s Arrival Helped Seattle Reach The Next Level
The stigma that still followed Darnold despite leading the Vikings to 14 wins last season while setting career highs with 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
The stigma being that he couldn’t win the big games and that all the regular-season success in Minnesota had to be a fluke after he failed with the Jets as the No. 3 overall pick, after he underwhelmed in a fresh start with the Panthers, became a backup for the 49ers and wasn’t even necessarily supposed to be the starter for the Vikings until first-round pick J.J. McCarthy’s preseason knee injury.
A stigma reinforced by his final two games with the Vikings — a 31-9 loss to the Lions with the NFC’s No. 1 seed at stake as Darnold completed a season-worst 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards while overthrowing open receivers in key moments, and the next week a 27-9 playoff loss to the Rams in which he took 9 sacks, had a fumble returned for a touchdown and threw an interception.
The doubt in Darnold could be the only reason to have Seattle with significantly worse odds than any other team that won 10 games last season.
The irony now is that the upgrade from Smith to Darnold is actually one of the obvious and leading reasons why the Seahawks surged to 14-3 (the same record Darnold achieved in Minnesota), the NFC’s No. 1 seed and now a Super Bowl shot.
Especially after Darnold drove a final nail in that old narrative in the NFC championship game as he completed 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in the biggest game of his career — so far.
But the reason the Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for the first time in 11 years — and the fourth time in franchise history — goes beyond one move.
Let’s dive deeper into how Seattle built its way back to the Big Game.
RELATED: How the New England Patriots pulled off a dramatic one-year rebuild to return to the Super Bowl
How The Seahawks Built A Super Bowl Squad
As we noted in explaining how the Patriots went from back-to-back 4-13 seasons to 14-3 AFC East champs and now back in the Big Game, it almost always comes down to two decisions first and foremost — head coach and quarterback.
A half dozen teams around the league last offseason pursued Macdonald, the former Ravens defensive coordinator who led Baltimore to first in the NFL in points allowed, sacks and takeaways in 2023, for their head coach vacancies. Ultimately, Seattle made him the youngest head coach in the league at 36 years old.
We’re going to call that move a success.
Ditto the Darnold decision.
Seattle gave the well-traveled former first-round pick a three-year, $100.5 million contract, and Darnold gave the Seahawks confirmation that they’d made the right investment.
He backed up his delayed breakout season with the Vikings by passing for 4,048 yards, 25 TDs and 14 INTs and completing a career-high 67.7% of his passes. Those numbers are fine (the INTs were among the most in the league), but dive deeper into the advanced metrics — like we did Sunday here — and it’s even more clear how Darnold elevated the Seahawks’ passing offense specifically with a more efficient and proficient downfield attack that helped star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a career-best year with an NFL-leading 1,793 receiving yards on 119 catches with 10 TDs.
Also credit offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who did such a good job in his one season in Seattle that he’s now expected to take his first head coaching job with the Las Vegas Raiders after the Super Bowl.
The John Schneider Effect
So that explains a lot of the Seahawks’ surge, but we have gone too far and too long into this without properly spotlighting the third primary component to this story and the other essential element to building a contender.
Seattle general manager John Schneider, who has been in the role since 2010, might be the best in the entire sport — or is at least sharing that perch with Eagles GM Howie Roseman. Incredibly, he had already built most of this Super Bowl team before even acing the awkward move of parting ways with the best coach in franchise history (Pete Carroll) and nailing the subsequent hire.
Honestly, Schneider wouldn’t have survived 1690s Salem, Massachusetts, without being accused of witchcraft (we’re extrapolating backwards, go with it …)
His draft and free agency success is simply incredible.
Nine of the Seahawks’ offensive staples were drafted by the team or signed out of college.
That includes the entire offensive line: LT Charles Cross (1st-round pick, 9th overall, in 2022), LG Grey Zabel (1st-round pick, No. 18 overall, in 2025), C Jalen Sundell (signed as an undrafted free agent in 2024), RG Anthony Bradford (4th-round pick in 2023) and RT Abraham Lucas (3rd-round pick in 2022).
And the dynamic backfield tandem of Kenneth Walker III (2nd-round pick in 2022) and Zach Charbonnet (2nd-round pick in 2023), who combined for 1,757 rushing yards and 17 TDs (plus 426 receiving yards) in the regular season. Walker has added 178 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards and 4 TDs in the two playoff wins so far.
And the NFL’s leading receiver, Smith-Njigba (1st-round pick, 20th overall, in 2023), along with emerging tight end AJ Barner (4th-round pick in 2024), who was the team’s second-most productive target with 52 catches for 519 yards and 6 TDs during the season.
Schneider filled the gaps on that side of the ball with a few savvy moves, leading with Darnold but also signing free agent wide receiver Cooper Kupp (47-593-2) to a 3-year, $45-million deal and trading 2026 4th and 5th-round picks to the New Orleans Saints for Rashid Shaheed, who had a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown in the first playoff win over the 49ers and a 51-yard reception on an early touchdown drive in the NFC championship game.
On the defensive side, Schneider needed to make only two key moves last offseason to add to what he’d already put in place.
The Seahawks signed former Cowboys star defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence to a 3-year, $32.5-million deal, getting a team-high 11 tackles for loss along with 6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 2 defensive TDs during the season and 2 more sacks already this postseason. And they traded up to draft defensive back Nick Emmanwori early in the second round (35th overall). The rookie made an immediate impact with 81 tackles, 9 TFLs and 11 passes defended.
Seattle’s Impressive Defensive Numbers
Here’s how the rest of the defense had been built over the previous years …
DT Byron Murphy II (62 tackles, 7 TFLs) was a 1st-round pick (16th overall) in 2024.
DT Leonard Williams (62 tackles, 9 TFLs, 7 sacks), a second-team All-Pro selection this year, was acquired in a 2023 mid-season trade with the New York Giants for 2nd- and 5th-round picks. Score another W for Schneider there.
NT Jarran Reed (31 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was originally drafted by the team in 2016 and brought back in 2023 as a free agent.
LB Ernest Jones IV, another second-team All-Pro selection this year with a team-high 126 tackles, 4 TFLs, 5 interceptions and 7 passes defended, was acquired in the middle of last season from the Titans for LB Jerome Baker and a 4th-round pick — an outright steal for Schneider and the Seahawks. He’s led the team with 14 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble in the two playoff games.
LB Drake Thomas (96 tackles, 10 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PDs) was claimed off waivers before the 2023 season after being signed by the Las Vegas Raiders as an undrafted free agent that year and then cut during training camp. A fortuitous find.
LB Uchenna Nwosu (35 tackles, 7 sacks) was signed as a free agent in 2022, LB Tyrice Knight (57 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 FFs) was a 4th-round pick in 2024 and LB Derick Hall (30 tackles, 2 sacks) was a 2nd-round pick in 2023.
Aside from Emmanwori, the rest of the Seahawks’ secondary has mostly been in place for a few seasons now.
CB Devon Witherspoon, another second-team All-Pro selection after 72 tackles, 1 INT, 7 PDs and stifling coverage, was 1st-round pick (5th overall) in 2023.
CB Riq Woolen (41 tackles, 1 INT, 12 PDs) was a 5th-round pick in 2022, CB Josh Jobe (54 tackles, 1 INT, 12 PDs) was signed to the practice squad in 2024, S Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 TFLs, 4 INTs and 7 PDs) was a 4th-round pick in 2022, S Julian Love (34 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PDs in 8 games) was signed a free agent in 2023 and S Ty Okada (65 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PDs) was picked up as an undrafted free agent in 2023.
Just like that, the “Legion of Boom” has its worthy successor in “The Dark Side” defense that led the NFL in allowing just 17.2 points per game while ranking 6th in total defense (285.6 yards per game).
Quite simply, that is a masterclass in roster-building by Schneider, who has his fingerprints all over both of those units and has now built two separate Super Bowl contenders in his time in Seattle while distinguishing himself as one of the best in the business.
Seattle’s Path To The Super Bowl
So that shows how the Seahawks were built. As for how they turned that into a surprise Super Bowl run, the signs were there from the beginning this season.
Seattle lost its opener to San Francisco, but the defense nabbed 2 interceptions and did its part in a 17-13 loss.
The Seahawks’ recipe for success would reveal itself soon enough — lean on that defense and the running game while lessening the volume of load on Darnold but also leverage his big-play ability downfield.
Seattle held 11 of its 17 opponents under 20 points and only allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angels Rams (twice) to score more than 24.
The Seahawks reeled off seven straight wins to close the season, including the wild 38-37 overtime shootout with the Rams in Week 16 and then a 13-3 domination of the 49ers in Week 18 (allowing just 173 yards) to win the NFC West (the best division in football this year) and the No. 1 seed.
From there, Seattle shut down San Francisco again in the divisional round, 41-6, while forcing 3 turnovers and allowing 236 yards, and then outdueled the Rams once again, 31-27, in the NFC championship game.
As noted, Darnold was exceptional in that game, so too was Smith-Njigba (10 taches for 153 yards and a TD), a muffed punt by Rams returner Xavier Smith early in the third quarter was pivotal as the Seahawks scored on the next play to push their lead to 24-13, and the defense ultimately delivered when needed in the end.
Witherspoon broke up a fourth-and-4 pass attempt from the Seattle 6 late in the fourth quarter (after also breaking up the third-down pass attempt), the Seahawks ate up most of the remaining clock and pinned the Rams at their own 7 with 25 seconds left before closing it out.
Just like last year, Seattle has only gotten better as the season has gone along, but nobody is sleeping on these Seahawks — or doubting Darnold’s ability to deliver on this stage — now.
They’re 4.5-point favorites to win the Super Bowl, and it’s indisputable they’ve been the best team in football over the last two months.
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