The NFL regular season is heading into its final weekend, and there are still some final playoff scenarios set to play out. That includes the culmination of a wild NFC West race that will come down to the final game Saturday in Santa Clara.
Meanwhile, the NFL MVP race got flipped upside down last week along with the AFC North race, Malik Willis made himself a ton of money for his upcoming free agency, Kirk Cousins can’t lose all of a sudden, the limping Lions can’t win and lost to a quarterback who mustered only 51 passing yards, and the Raiders figured out the one thing they do well — shameless tanking.
We reflect on that and more in the weekly NFL Winners and Losers breakdown before turning the focus fully to Week 18.
NFL Week 17 Winners
Wild Wild NFC West
The NFC West race and chase for the NFC’s No. 1 seed has been thoroughly thrilling theater.
For a good stretch of this season, the Los Angeles Rams were the betting favorite to not just win the division but the Super Bowl, and now they’re likely going to finish third in the NFC West.
While the Rams have dropped two straight games (and three out of five), including a 27-24 loss to the Falcons last week, the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers have been surging.
Seattle has won six in a row, including that incredible 38-37 overtime win over the Rams two weeks ago that remains a contender for best NFL game of the year. San Francisco has also won six straight, including an equally incredible 42-38 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday night that is also a top contender for game of the year.
(A pick-6 on the first play of the game, five straight combined touchdown drives during one stretch in the first half, Brock Purdy and Caleb Williams absolutely duking it out with dueling 300-yard passing performances, 181 combined yards for Christian McCaffrey, an 11-play, 78-yard Bears field goal drive to take the lead with 5:22 left, a 75-yard 49ers touchdown drive to answer and regain the lead with 2:15 on the clock, Williams nearly answering back while converting on fourth-and-5 and getting the Bears to the 2 before falling short … goodness!)
That has put the Seahawks and Niners on a crash course to Saturday night when they duke it out in San Francisco for all the stakes.
The 49ers clinch the NFC West, No. 1 seed and the corresponding first-round bye with a win. The Seahawks get it all with a win or tie (because nothing can be ruled out in this chaotic season).
And yet, don’t forget the Rams after all, as they’re still tied with the Seahawks for the best odds to win the Super Bowl (+550), per BetMGM. Wild, indeed.
More Purdy Praise
Before we move on, let’s take a moment to appreciate what Purdy is doing right now.
Yes, he started the game inauspiciously with a pick-6, but then completed 24 of his next 32 passes for 303 yards and 3 TDs and rushed for 2 other scores.
In the last three games, he’s averaging 297.7 passing yards per game with 13 total TDs (11 passing, 2 rushing) and 2 INTs, while the Niners are averaging an absolutely absurd 42.3 points per game in that stretch.
More to the point, San Francisco’s surge and six-game winning streak started when he returned to the lineup after battling that turf toe injury.
Baltimore back from the dead, all hail the great King Henry
The Baltimore Ravens’ season sure looked kaput after that 28-24 loss to the Patriots two weeks ago as QB Lamar Jackson exited early with a back injury and then was ruled out last week vs. the Packers.
Playoff odds seem to be an inexact science given the range of percentages put out by various authorities on the matter, but let’s just pick one — NFL.com seems as good as any — and the Ravens had a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs at that point.
Then …
Baltimore won 41-24 at Green Bay in a battle of backup QBs with RB Derrick Henry turning in a truly vintage performance with a season-high 36 carries (11 more than any other game) for 216 yards and 4 TDs.
Which was all well and good, but the reality remained the Pittsburgh Steelers merely had to beat the beleaguered Browns the next day to clinch the AFC North.
But after three straight wins, their best momentum of the season and everything to play for against a Browns team playing out the string on yet another lost season, the Steelers fell flat in a 13-6 loss.
Now, the AFC North comes down to a showdown between the rivals Sunday night in Pittsburgh. The Ravens, set as 3.5-point favorites, can clinch the division and a playoff spot with a win while getting Jackson back at QB. (The Steelers take it with a win or tie).
So much for those playoff percentages.
Before moving on, let’s take a quick moment to focus on Henry. He now has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in NFL history behind three absolute legends who he’ll one day join in Canton.
At one point, this was looking like a let-down season for the future Hall-of-Famer after his 1,900-yard Ravens debut last year. He had a stretch of four straight games early this season with 50 or fewer rushing yards. He had just three 100-yard performances in a span of 12 games.
Instead, Henry has piled up 444 rushing yards and 6 TDs in the last three games, pushing his season total to 1,469 — third-best in the NFL — while matching his rushing TDs from last season.
The lesson, as always, is never count out King Henry.
Speaking of being revived
Remember when the Atlanta Falcons gave veteran QB Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180-million contract fresh off a torn Achilles tendon, then immediately used a first-round draft pick on QB Michael Penix Jr., benched Cousins late last season and turned the keys over to Penix entering 2025?
Well, the NFL’s most expensive backup quarterback has returned in a big way.
The Falcons dusted off Cousins in mid-November when Penix sustained a season-ending torn ACL, and the 37-year-old QB now has Atlanta riding a three-game winning streak after that 27-24 upset of the Rams last week.
Granted, Cousins was only 13-of-20 passing for 126 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs in that game as RB Bijan Robinson carried the team with 229 total yards and 2 TDs. But over these six starts since being thrust back into the lineup, Cousins has led the previously underachieving Falcons to a 4-2 record while averaging 215.2 passing yards per game with 9 TDs and 4 INTs (plus a rushing TD) while missing star receiver Drake London for four of those games.
The Falcons are 7-9, technically just a half game back of the NFC South-leading Panthers (8-8) but already eliminated from the playoffs (after getting swept by Carolina and splitting with fellow 7-9 Tampa Bay).
It’s fair to wonder where Atlanta — with a pretty talented roster overall — would be if Cousins had been the starter all season.
Maye’s MVP move, Mike McDaniel, Malik Willis a muted milestone and momentum shoutouts
You know the drill — alliteration speed round time!
Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been the betting favorite for the NFL MVP award for most of the season, but no more. With Stafford (4,428 passing yards, 42 TDs and 8 INTs) tossing a season-high 3 picks in that loss to Atlanta, Maye (4,203, 30 TDs, 8 INTs, 409 rushing yards and 4 TDs) moved ahead of him after completing 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs in a 42-10 obliteration of the Jets.
Maye now has -400 odds to win the MVP, per DraftKings Sportsbook, while Stafford is +300.
We’re going to disagree with the shifting sentiment and say Stafford still deserves it, and we’re not on an island here.
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The Miami Dolphins started 1-6 with the lone win coming against the abysmal Jets, and it sure seemed like coach Mike McDaniel wasn’t going to survive the season.
But he deserves a ton of credit — and maybe another season in Miami at this point.
The Dolphins, despite losing star receiver Tyreke Hill for the season and having to eventually bench QB Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers two weeks ago, are somehow 7-9 while going 6-3 since that terrible start.
(Ewers got his first win as a starter, 20-17 against a desperate Buccaneers team with everything on the line, passing for 172 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.)
Honestly, that’s incredible.
Even if he gets the ax in Miami on Monday, McDaniel has done enough to deserve a second shot elsewhere.
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Malik Willis was a bit of a bust in Tennessee, drafted in the third round and traded after two seasons for a seventh-round pick to Green Bay.
But to his credit, Willis has looked like a completely different QB with the Packers while stepping in for injured starter Jordan Love, coming off the bench two weeks ago and helping Green Bay take the Bears to overtime before making the start last weekend.
Willis completed 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards and a TD and rushed 9 times for 60 yards and 2 scores in the Packers’ loss to the Ravens (not his fault). He sure looked like one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL the last two weeks (combined 27 of 32 for 409 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 104 yards and 2 TDs rushing).
Willis is in the final year of his four-year rookie contract and will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. It will be very interesting to see if there is a QB-needy team that wants to invest him in as a starter. At the very least, he’s assured himself of a long career as a capable backup.
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Rather under the radar given that it came in one of the most lopsided losses of the entire NFL season, but Breece Hall became the first Jets running back since 2015 (Chris Ivory) to reach the 1,000 rushing yards milestone in a season.
He’s the eighth Jet all-time to hit the mark, rumbling for 111 yards (7.9 per carry) and a TD vs. the Patriots to push his season total to 1,065 in his fourth season. He just missed it two years ago when he finished at 994.
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We did say speed round, right? Oh yeah. Let’s move it along with some quick shoutouts for teams/players with mounting momentum.
– Rookie QB Tyler Shough has led New Orleans to its first four-game winning streak since 2020 when Drew Brees was still slinging it for the Saints.
Shough, a second-round draft pick last spring, completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in leading the Saints from a 10-point second-half deficit to a 34-26 win in Tennessee. It marked his second straight 300-yard passing game, and he’s up to 2,125 passing yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs (none in the last three games) and 2 rushing TDs while likely solidifying his role for next season.
– Meanwhile, the Houston Texans just keep winning — eight in a row after a 20-16 win over the playoff-bound Chargers — while giving off major 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens vibes with their NFL-best defense (league-low 16.6 PPG/272.4 YPG allowed).
– The Jacksonville Jaguars made it seven in a row with a 23-17 win at Indianapolis even with QB Trevor Lawrence throwing his first interception in five games (but with 263 passing yards and 2 rushing TDs).
– And, finally, in this round, let’s spotlight the impressive coaching job Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell has done in leading the Vikings to four straight wins, managing the J.J. McCarthy rollercoaster at QB and dominating the Lions 23-10 last week despite undrafted rookie third-string QB Max Brosmer managing just 51 passing yards while taking 7 sacks.
The Vikings are 8-8 despite one of the three worst QB situations in the league, which makes this a major “what-if” season for the team had it, you know, kept Sam Darnold or not put everything on the shoulders of a not-quite-ready McCarthy. Ah well.
Breakout performances
The Bears may have gotten a steal in the draft last spring in taking WR Luther Burden III in the second round (39th overall).
Burden had been building momentum late in his rookie season before putting it all together in that epic Sunday night showdown vs. San Francisco, hauling in 8 receptions on 9 targets for 138 yards and a TD.
Meanwhile, in that same game, San Francisco’s Jake Tonges looked like a top-10 NFL tight end while filling in admirably for injured star George Kittle. Tonges, who went undrafted in 2022 out of Cal and has been with the Niners since 2023, caught 7 of his 9 targets for 60 yards and a TD.
Tonges had zero career catches before this season and has maximized his opportunities behind Kittle for 35 receptions for 293 yards and 5 TDs.
NFL Week 17 Losers
Dan Campbell and Detroit
Seriously, what happened here?
The Detroit Lions went from 15 wins last season and what seemed like the start of a real Super Bowl window to 8-8 and out of the playoffs after three straight losses with their season on the line.
They lost 23-10 to the Vikings with the aforementioned 51 passing yards from Minnesota QB Max Brosmer.
What … happened?!
Is it really that Campbell was propped up so substantially by former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who just turned the Bears whole organization around in his first season as head coach? (While also losing defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn after last season.)
It sure seems to be the only logical answer. Yes, there were offensive line setbacks and losing tight end Sam LaPorta late in the season hurt. But …
Packers’ Super Bowl hopes
How quickly things can change in the NFL.
A few weeks ago, Green Bay was viewed as a top contender for the Super Bowl after four straight wins and a key divisional victory over the Bears.
But the Packers have lost three in a row since then, lost defensive star Micah Parson for the season in the process, lost QB Jordan Love temporarily to a concussion a couple weeks ago, lost the NFC North to the Bears and really lost any aura of a contender.
Love will be back for the playoffs, but Green Bay’s stock is still pointing down.
NFC South
The Carolina Panthers (8-8) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9), whichever wins the NFC South this weekend, is the equivalent of Tulane and James Madison taking spots in the College Football Playoff.
Neither seems particularly determined to win the division.
The Panthers have alternated wins and losses for 10 straight games, while the Bucs have taken a nosedive since a 6-2 start, losing seven of their last eight.
They meet head-to-head Saturday to settle it. Carolina takes the division with a win or tie, or an Atlanta win (for tiebreaker purposes). Tampa Bay gets it with a win or Falcons loss or tie.
Steelers stuck in mediocrity
We’re not going to join the chorus of critics suggesting it’s time for Mike Tomlin to go in Pittsburgh — 19 straight non-losing seasons is a heck of an accomplishment and he did win a Super Bowl (way back in the 2008 season).
Also, it’s not his fault the Steelers haven’t found a true franchise QB since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
But Steelers fans do have to feel like they’re stuck in some sort of purgatory — not good enough to actually do anything in the playoffs but not bad enough to get the draft pick needed to draft a top QB prospect.
Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, and the 13-6 loss to the Browns last week with a chance to clinch the division was just a fitting encapsulation of the mediocrity in which this franchise is maligned.
Blunder in Buffalo?
Bills coach Sean McDermott’s failed decision to go for two points and the win in the final seconds rather than kick the extra point and head to overtime at home against the Eagles has generated divisive opinions after Buffalo’s 13-12 loss.
Not here, though.
Even though the Bills ended up with a clean look at the end zone and QB Josh Allen just missed the pass, it was still a silly decision.
Buffalo had all the momentum — not just some of it, every ounce of momentum — at home.
The Eagles built a 13-0 halftime lead, but it was all Bills from there. Jalen Hurts didn’t complete a single pass in the second half (0-7) for Philadelphia, which mustered just one first down and 17 yards of on its five full second-half possessions — all leading to punts.
The Bills had just scored on back-to-back long touchdown drives of 11 and 13 plays.
Why leave the game to a coin-flip like that by going for 2 while in absolute total control of the second half at home?
It’s not as if the game had no stakes. Buffalo could now tumble to the No. 7 seed even if it beats the Jets this weekend.
This is among the many reasons it’s hard to trust McDermott to ever get the Bills truly over the hump.
The Rudderless Raiders
At least last week the Raiders were happy to be losers, doing everything to aid that outcome by shutting down star DE Maxx Crosby (along with injured star TE Brock Bowers) before a showdown of 2-14 teams with the New York Giants and the No. 1 pick in the draft essentially on the line.
Las Vegas has been the most listless team in the league this season, and that’s really saying something.
