The top five remains static, but there’s once again a new No. 1 in the NFL’s edition of the College Football Playoff rankings.
If you’ve ever dreamed of bringing the drama, controversy — and, sure, the silliness — of the College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL level, consider starting your holiday season on an appropriately thankful note.
The NFL postseason is sorted by the conventional — and effective, at least for a league 32 teams — numerical method with the occasional tiebreaker. But what if the CFP committee made its way to the pros?
TeamFB7 theorizes such a scenario below, attempting to envision a realistic bracket based on what we’ve seen since the CFP was introduced in 2014. Only the most elite division winners, essentially serving as mini-college conferences in this exercise are granted automatic entry, much like the current edition of the CFP. AFC/NFC loyalties were not considered, opening up the possibility to an uneven team distribution. Our rankings will feature 14 teams, much like the real NFL bracket, to maintain consistency.
Remember, if your team is in it, then of course these rankings can be taken serious. If not, lighten up, this isn’t how the NFL decides it — for now.
Without further ado …
Previous Rankings
1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3)
Last Week: 2nd
No. 1 will switch hands for the third time in as many editions of this poll, as the Rams thoroughly thrashed the hapless Arizona Cardinals after the prior week’s somewhat-surprising loss to Carolina. The Rams’ losses are going in different directions (losing to Carolina is increasingly understandable, falling to Philadelphia less so) but they pass the Broncos for the top spot again thanks to better victories and leading a tough division. NFC West bias, perhaps? (Yes, we’re running that one into the ground)
2. Denver Broncos (11-2)
Last Week: 1st
Denver keeps hurting its margin of error — a one-possession victory over the lowly Las Vegas Raiders isn’t going to win over any doubters and may even increase their numbers — yet it continues to handle business efficiently, even. That Week 2 loss to Indianapolis suddenly doesn’t look quite forgivable as it once did, but the Broncos have a brilliant, if not dangerous, gauntlet to cull the non-believers, beginning with a Sunday visit from the Green Bay Packers. To Denver’s relief, all but one (a Christmas Day nightcap in Kansas City) will be staged in the Rockies.
3. New England Patriots (11-2)
Last Week: 3rd
Not much to say about the incumbent closers of the top four, both of whom were idle in Week 14. The microscope centers in on the Patriots for the next two weeks: they’ll have a chance to secure a vital sweep of the Buffalo Bills this week before facing the desperate Baltimore Ravens just before Christmas in a game that just flexed to Sunday night.
4. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
Last Week: 4th
Another team on a bye, the 49ers got a chance to get a little healthier but it seems like top defenders Tatum Bethune and Sam Okuayinonu might have to sit out if early medical indicators prove true. Elsewhere, tenured fullback Kyle Juszczyk is a limited participant in this week’s practices. All in all, injuries might not matter too much for the Niners, who welcome in the reeling Tennessee Titans in Sunday’s late window.
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
Last Week: 5th
It was tempting to move the Seahawks ahead of the idle 49ers: Seattle handily took down Atlanta to keep pace with the Rams, giving them a margin of victory of plus-54 in their last two games (the other being a mastering of Minnesota). That just seemed to be a cruel bit to the Niners, who still own the head-to-head advantage with the Pacific Northwest. Seattle gets to host two holiday haunts that should draw plenty of attention: while the Niners slum it against the Titans, the ‘Hawks will get to add to the Colts’ struggles before getting the Rams in prime time.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
Last Week: 7th
The Jaguars keep rolling, taking advantage of the Colts’ freefall with a three-score win. Competing for the AFC’s lone bye feels like a bit of a pipe dream (though they do notably go to Denver after this week’s potential breeze against the Jets at home) but there’s no doubt that they’re rolling with four straight triumphs. The Colts’ de-evolution, if it continues, more or less should secure the Jags’ playoff spot, but they’d love their play to do the talking instead, as the recent Houston haunt looms somewhat large.
7. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
Last Week: 9th
Back-to-back wins over AFC North competition, complete with endless Josh Allen antics, feels like a surefire sign that they’re back after a tepid Thanksgiving season. This season carries a large sense of “now or never” for the Bills, but, more immediately, “now or never” applies this week with a fate Foxborough fracas: early October’s loss to the Patriots at home feels like an increasingly distant memory and the Bills could perhaps go full Men in Black “flashy thing” early on Sunday.
8. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)
Last Week: 12th
Temporarily thrust into the top seed in the NFC, the Packers have gained momentum through a divisional sweep, culminating in another Lambeau thriller against the Bears. Some of the Packers’ early losses (again, a loss to the Panthers is increasingly forgivable, one to the Browns, and even the Eagles, not so much) keep them a little buried on a list such as this, but the grind doesn’t stop: a visit to top-ranked Denver arrives this week, and they’ll be back in Chicago after that. A post-Christmas clash with the Ravens has also been flexed to a Saturday slot.
9. Houston Texans (8-5)
Last Week: 13th
Fresh off dealing another brutal blow to the Kansas City Chiefs (who aren’t dead, but, if this was the original “Alien,” Ripley just blew up the Nostromo), the Texans are quietly morphing into “that one team you don’t want to see in the playoffs.” Winners of eight of ten, including five in a row, after an 0-3 start, Houston also has the best strength of victory among any active AFC playoff team (.490). It’ll have a great chance to juice its resume.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
Last Week: 11th
It wasn’t pretty, but the Chargers made a Monday night statement by dealing further pain to the Eagles at home (yet away if the crowd noise at SoFi Stadium was any indication). The Chargers can improve their ranking by playing visiting grim reaper over the next two weeks: they can sweep the Chiefs on Sunday before getting a chance to put the Dallas Cowboys out of their misery after that.
11. Chicago Bears (9-4)
Last Week: 10th
Are the Bears, once again, who we thought they were? The late Dennis Green’s famous declaration no doubt proves popular among Chicago doubters this week after they dropped their biggest test to date, a divisional duel with the Packers. They’ll have one more relatively cupcake this week with the Cleveland Browns but a 49er sandwich features divisional-flavored bread, as they have to face the Packers and Detroit Lions again.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)
Last Week: 6th
The Eagles keep getting (Tush) pushed toward the bottom of these rankings, as a golden opportunity to take a prime time thriller from the ailing Chargers went by the wayside thanks to a multitude of Jalen Hurts turnovers, including two on one play that no doubt provided laughs/screams to keep the “Monsters Inc.” broadcast rolling through the Super Bowl. The Eagles get to linger in the top 10 because their strength of victory is still solid and they lead the NFC East by a slim margin that looks wider with the remaining schedule mostly consisting of the downtrodden Raiders and Commanders.
13. Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
Last Week: 8th
The Colts would’ve led this list had we started earlier but have dropped five spots in each of the last two editions. The more recent being a 36-19 defeat to Jacksonville that probably wasn’t as close as the already one-sided final indicated. Part of the drop is thanks in part to the disdain that the real-life CFP committee often shows toward teams with quarterback issues — any Florida State fan can attest to that. With Phillip Rivers back in tow, at least on the practice squad, the road gets no easier for the Colts, who finish this year against four consecutive top nine teams.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Last Week: Not Ranked
The real-life CFP committee was surprisingly charitable to the Group of Five, granting bids to mid-majors Tulane and James Madison. The hypothetical one won’t be so graceful, granting that de facto bid to the Steelers over another subpar division leader (Tampa Bay) that somehow lost to the New Orleans Saints. Pittsburgh moved back to the top of the AFC North with an appropriately mediocre malady of mediocrity against the Baltimore Ravens and that’s just enough to steal the last spot in our poll.
Top Risers: Green Bay, Houston (+4)
Biggest Faller: Philadelphia (-6)
Fell Out: Tampa Bay (14th)
First Four Out: Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Baltimore
Geoff Magliocchetti is on X @GeoffJMags
