Just two weeks into TesmFB7’s NFL experiment, there’s a new No. 1 in the College Football Playoff-style rankings.
If you’ve ever dreamed of bringing the drama, controversy … and, sure, the silliness … of the College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL level, consider starting your holiday season on an appropriately thankful note.
The NFL postseason is sorted by the conventional … and effective, at least for a league of 32 teams … numerical method with the occasional tiebreaker. But what if the CFP committee made its way to the pros?
TeamFB7 theorizes such a scenario below, attempting to envision a realistic bracket based on what we’ve seen since the CFP was introduced in 2014. Only the most elite division winners, essentially serving as mini-college conferences in this exercise are granted automatic entry, much like the current edition of the CFP. AFC/NFC loyalties were not considered, opening up the possibility to an uneven team distribution. Our rankings will feature 14 teams, much like the real NFL bracket, to maintain consistency.
Remember, if your team is in it, then of course these rankings can be taken serious. If not, lighten up, this isn’t how the NFL decides it … for now.
Previous Rankings
1. Denver Broncos (10-2)
Last Week: 2nd
Let’s be clear … few, if any, on such a hypothetical committee would be pleased with Denver’s one-point overtime win over woebegone Washington and it could come back to haunt it down the line. Denver’s elite competition (the Broncos still have to deal with the Chargers and Chiefs) and the fact that the three teams around them in last week’s rankings all lost also helped it ascend to a Rocky Mountain high. But, credit where it’s due: the goal in any list such as this is to win. Come gridiron heck or high Gatorade, the Broncos have found a way to do it.
2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
Last Week: 1st
A six-game winning streak and “good” losses before Sunday’s crusher in Carolina helped build the Rams an extraordinarily solid foundation in their room for error. When all’s said and done, they still lead the mighty NFC West and own valuable wins over their closest competitors. The loss against Carolina is somewhat glaring (at least for the time being) but the Rams escape major punishment after immediately falling from the top.
3. New England Patriots (11-2)
Last Week: 5th
The team with the most wins on the current NFL ledgers gets a little more respect this time around: the Patriots’ schedule once again does them no favors, but they once again emphatically handled business with a 33-15 Monday night shellacking of the miniscule New York Giants. New England also benefitted from the victims of their two big wins (Buffalo and Tampa Bay) getting back in the win column. Facing their late bye, the Patriots are probably destined to fall a spot next time around but 10 consecutive wins situates them squarely in this week’s top three.
4. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
Last Week: 6th
Another jumper amid handled business (an ugly, rainy 26-8 win over the Cleveland Browns), the 49ers are currently the odd team out in the NFC West divisional kerfuffle but things will slightly even out when they take the weekend off (a win over Seattle also looms large). Even in absentia, it could be a valuable stretch for the Bay Area: the Niners have endured several injuries to their depth pieces like blocker Ben Bartch, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and linebacker Tatum Bethune. It could cost them a spot in next week’s battle but they certainly won’t care if it means winning the war.
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
Last Week: 7th
NFC West bias? The division’s prowess (beyond what has transpired in the dire deserts of Arizona) is on full display as the Seahawks have taken care of business after their narrow defeat to the Rams. Seattle’s wins certainly aren’t impressive, especially recent ones over Tennessee and a Minnesota group led by an undrafted quarterback. But the fact that they earned a shutout victory in the modern NFL bodes pretty well and they deserve at least some type of reward for that.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
Last Week: 4th
How much of a pass should the Eagles get because they’re leading their division, which is admittedly a relatively weak NFC East? Philadelphia has, for what it’s worth, handled business when it has had to as well, but the CFP committee can be rather guilty of recency bias (as any modern Miami Hurricanes fan will more than happily let you know). Consecutive losses against Dallas and Chicago are ugly, yes, but not enough to boot the Eagles out of hosting a hypothetical home game quite yet.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Last Week: 8th
The new AFC South leaders are another tricky case: one probably shouldn’t overvalue their handling of business in Nashville and the recent loss to the surging Houston Texans still looms large. But with no head-to-head cases against the Colts quite yet, Jacksonville gets to sit among the hosts, backed by a strength of victory that seems to improve with each passing week. December is bookended by a couple of high-profile showcases with Indianapolis, beginning this Sunday in Duval.
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
Last Week: 3rd
The week’s big tumbler is the Colts, who can’t be held fully accountable for their decline despite losing three of four: a loss to the Texans doesn’t seem as egregious as it did a month ago, they have no head-to-head experiments with the Jaguars (a situation that is remedied this Sunday), and headliners Sauce Gardner and Daniel Jones are both dealing with injuries. The final five weeks are double-edged sword, as each of the team’s remaining opponents (a couple with Jacksonville, a closer in Houston, and two from the NFC West gauntlet) sits in some form of contention.
9. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
Last Week: 9th
It was tough to reward the Bills without excessively punishing the Colts. The truth of the matter is that a win over the Steelers, no matter how dominant the latter half-hour was, isn’t as valuable as it was around Halloween. Buffalo’s losses, beyond their sandwiching defeats to New England and Houston, are also ugly enough to keep them relatively buried while their best wins (Kansas City, Tampa Bay) aren’t as attractive as they would be during the preseason. Fortunately for the Bills, there will be new opportunities to move up starting with a Sunday clash with a Bengals group that’s nearing full strength on offense.
10. Chicago Bears (9-3)
Last Week: 12th
CFP rankings often benefit those who know how to win in the clutch and the Bears took advantage of their first major opportunity: the latest addition to their five-game win streak was a Black Friday triumph over the NFC East-leading Eagles. The journey gets no easier, much to their potential joy, as they get “America’s Game of the Week” in the last Sunday slot against Green Bay. That should clear up a few more questions about the Bears, who deserve some credit for what they’ve accomplished while acknowledging that their quest for full-on legitimacy is far from complete.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Last Week: 10th
The Chargers took care of business against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders but might have larger, long-term issues to worry about, namely that of Justin Herbert’s hand. As any Florida State fan will tell you, the committee tends to consider the impact of franchise quarterback injuries the deeper we get into the season and the Chargers are the slight victim this time around. LA has a chance to immediately prove its worth come Monday night, as they’ll face an Eagles team with something to prove.
12. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
Last Week: 13th
The Packers’ ledger to date may be a bit cheesy, but they’ve pushed things forward with three consecutive wins after narrow defeats to Carolina and Philadelphia. A holiday haunt against Detroit may have been a little close for comfort but it was enough to establish the Packers’ strength in the playoff picture and the runner-up spot in the division. Like Chicago, they have a chance to prove their worth on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET, and the bouts with the Bears sandwich a trip to Denver.
13. Houston Texans (7-5)
Last Week: Not Ranked
Though they’d currently be watchers under the current NFL playoff system that prioritizes simple mathematics, this week’s lone new entrant is Houston, which has quietly amassed a four-game winning streak (as well as a tally of seven of nine overall) against some impressive competition (Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indianapolis). The most dangerous test perhaps waits on Sunday night: the Texans will play a furious Kansas City group they replaced on this list, one where they can perhaps vanquish the AFC’s Chief menace for good.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Last Week: 14th
If we couldn’t move the Bills up for beating the Steelers, a narrow victory for the Bucs against the eliminated Arizona Cardinals keeps them stationed in the final spot. They keep the final spot over the Cowboys and Chiefs for carrying better victories and a division lead over close Carolina … though they’re simultaneously blessed and cursed with an easy schedule where the most dangerous meetings are their divisional duo with the Panthers.
Top Risers: New England, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago (+2)
Biggest Faller: Indianapolis (-5)
Fell Out: Kansas City (11th)
First Four Out: Dallas, Kansas City, Carolina, Baltimore
Geoff Magliocchetti is on X @GeoffJMags
