The Super Bowl picture is supposed to be sharpening and the field of true contenders narrowing as the season progresses, but it’s been the opposite in 2025 — to the point we had to add three teams to the top tier this week and change the name of it.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles may be the team to beat again, but their average margin of victory in their eight wins is just 5.5 with all being by 8 points or less.
BetMGM’s reshuffled odds to win the Super Bowl starts with the Eagles and Los Angeles Rams (both +550), followed by the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs (both +850), the Detroit Lions (+900), the Indianapolis Colts (+1100), the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks (+1200), the Denver Broncos (+1500) and the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots (+1600) before a big dropoff.
All of those teams are beatable, none dominant and this Super Bowl race wide open. Heck, the third team on that list is 5-5 and the fourth team recently got blown out by the Miami Dolphins.
Here’s how we rank all 32 teams entering Week 12 of the NFL season.
Wide Open Super Bowl Race
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, no change): Vic Fangio’s Eagles defense made a statement Sunday in 16-9 win over the Lions, who were 0-5 on fourth down tries while QB Jared Goff completed just 14-of-37 passes while under constant duress. That defense is why the Eagles continue to top this list — and the still untapped potential for what an offense with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should be. But the reality is the Eagles have the eighth-worst offensive production in football (300.1 yards per game), which is by far the lowest of any contender on this list. Maybe the Eagles are saving Hurts (who is running notably less than ever) for the playoffs, or maybe this offense is just broken and will be the reason Philadelphia doesn’t repeat. That’s the unanswerable question right now.
2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2, up 2 spots): The Rams do a little bit of everything well — 6th in scoring (27.2 PPG), 8th in offensive yards (360.9 YPG), 2nd in scoring defense (17.2 PPG), top half of the league in total defense (323.0 YPG), etc. — have a head coach and quarterback in Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford who have already won a Super Bowl together, and one of the top receiver tandems in the league in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. And the fact that the Rams could beat a top division rival despite one of its worst offensive games of the season is a statement on its own. Los Angeles got past Seattle, 21-19, thanks to four interceptions, offsetting Stafford throwing for just 130 yards.
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3, up 3 spots): The ultimate yo-yo team in these NFL power rankings. Trust us, we will be the least surprised when the Bills come out flat against a bad team like the Bengals or Browns later this season and take another bad loss (like when they got blown out by the Dolphins). It’s a hard team to depend on, but when Buffalo is at its best — rather, when reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is at his best — it’s hard to ignore the top-end potential here. Allen totaled 6 touchdowns Sunday (3 passing, 3 rushing) in a 44-32 win over Tampa Bay, so the Bills bounce back up the rankings — for now.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, down 2 spots): The Chiefs are at the tipping point of this season after a 22-19 loss at Denver — a second straight loss to fall to 5-5. They host the 8-2 Colts this week, and a third straight loss might be enough to have to admit that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes may not have all the answers this time. But until that happens …
5. Detroit Lions (6-4, down 2 spots): Seeing the Lions’ vaunted offense get manhandled by the Eagles in that 16-9 loss Sunday night has to factor in how we view their Super Bowl hopes. Whether it was the loss of tight end Matt LaPorta, just Jared Goff proving again he’s a different QB in a dome vs. outdoors, or maybe the reality that former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is in Chicago now and head coach Dan Campbell is calling the plays, Detroit fans have to have some concern. The Lions are also just 2-3 in their last five games, including a loss to J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings. We’re not ready to overreact given the incredible upside this team has, but like the Chiefs, that benefit of the doubt only extends so long.
6. Denver Broncos (9-2, up 5 spots): OK, OK, we believe! That’s eight straight wins for the Broncos after yet another dramatic victory, 22-19 over the Chiefs on a game-winning field goal as time expired. That’s the Broncos’ way, though, and somehow it seems to work each week. That’s three straight wins by three points, and six of their last seven victories have been by four points or less. QB Bo Nix again played his best in the fourth quarter when it mattered most, and this defense is legit. Denver forced Mahomes and the Chiefs into three-and-outs on their final two possessions and now ranks third in both yards (274.4) and points (17.5) per game allowed.
7. Seattle Seahawks (7-3, down 2 spots): QB Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season, throwing 4 INTS, and the Seahawks still only lost by two points to the Rams. Darnold will shake that game off — those kind of off days are just part of the package with him. Seattle has a top-10 defense, top-5 passing offense led by the NFL’s leading receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (72 catches for 1,146 yards and 5 TDs) and capable rushing attack.
8. New England Patriots (9-2, no change): Just like with Denver, we had to bump New England into the expanded top tier after eight straight wins. The Patriots aren’t a fluke. We already knew Mike Vrabel was an excellent head coach, there’s no denying Drake Maye is one of the top QBs in football at this point, and now rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is breaking out (5 total TDs the last two games).
9. Indianapolis Colts (8-2, no change): The Colts come off a bye and face spotlight showdown with the Chiefs in Kansas City this week, where RB Jonathan Taylor will pick up his MVP campaign after a league-leading 1,139 rushing yards and 15 TDs through 10 games (plus another 260 yards and 2 TDs receiving).
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5, down 3 spots): As much as we want to believe in the Ravens being the Ravens of old now that Lamar Jackson is back, they sure didn’t look like it in a 23-16 win over the Cleveland Browns in which they trailed most of the game before rallying in the fourth quarter (once Shedeur Sanders was forced in at QB for the Browns). Since returning three games ago from that hamstring injury, Jackson has rushed for 14, 36 and 10 yards. If he isn’t going to be the dual-threat option this offense is built around, that changes the entire complexion for Baltimore. Like the Eagles with Hurts, maybe the Ravens are just saving that for the playoffs.
Playoff bound
11. San Francisco 49ers (7-4, up 2 spots): QB Brock Purdy is back and looked great in just his third start of the season, completing 19-of-26 passes for 200 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in a 41-22 win over Arizona. The 49ers could certainly play their way into that top tier, but the defense hasn’t been the same since losing top edge rusher Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner to season-ending injuries.
12. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1, down 2 spots): We’ve been saying for weeks that the Packers look pretty blah given all the hype they’ve received. That continued in a 27-20 win over the Giants in which Green Bay was yet again trailing in the fourth quarter. RB Josh Jacobs is now dealing with a knee injury that has his status in question for this week. But the Packers’ offense is a question mark in general based on what it’s showed this season.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, down 1 spot): The Buccaneers may well have peaked after a 5-1 start. Chalk it up to the injuries (they’re still without RB Bucky Irving and WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans), but the Bucs have lost three of four, including that 44-32 defeat at Buffalo on Sunday.
14. Chicago Bears (7-3, up 1 spot): We’re trying to believe! The Bears keep winning — seven of their last eight games now — and are clearly on an improving franchise under first-year coach Ben Johnson. But that stretch includes one-point wins over the lowly Raiders and Commanders, a victory over the lifeless Saints, wins by five points over the reeling Bengals and four points over the injury-depleted Giants and a 19-17 win over the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings. Chicago hosts the Steelers and then goes on the road against the Eagles and Packers the next three games. Let’s see how things stand at that point.
Playoff Fringe
15. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, down 1 spot): The Chargers are 7-4, but may be in serious trouble after the season-ending injury to star left tackle Joe Alt, which again compounds the issues that started when fellow start offensive tackle Rashawn Slater was lost for the season in training camp. Right guard Mekhi Becton, a big free agent pickup, didn’t play last weekend due to a knee injury, and right tackle Bobby Hart left the game early due to injury. That’s how the Chargers ended up getting straight-up dominated by the Jacksonville Jaguars, 35-6, as star QB Justin Herbert passed for just 81 yards. That may be as bad as it gets for the Chargers, but the O-line situation remains a glaring problem the rest of the season now.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, no change): It’s unclear if QB Aaron Rodgers will be available this week against the Bears after sustaining a fractured left wrist. The Steelers beat up on the abysmal Bengals last week, 34-12, but they’re just 2-3 in their last five games and the definition of mediocrity. No. 16 in a 32-team league couldn’t be a more fitting spot for any team.
17. Houston Texans (5-5, no change): The Texans are 2-0 with Davis Mills filling in at QB, and he’ll make a third start Thursday night vs. the Bills with C.J. Stroud still recovering from a concussion. Houston has the NFL’s best defense in terms of both yards (258.1) and points (16.3) allowed per game.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4, up 3 spots): Maybe we wrote off the Jaguars too soon. All credit to first-year head coach Liam Coen for rallying his team after that embarrassing collapse to the Texans, giving up 26 fourth quarter points. Jacksonville sure didn’t let that one linger, coming out and asserting itself from the start in that 35-6 win over the Charges. At 6-4 with the Cardinals this week, two games still against the bottom-dwelling Titans and a game with the Jets, the Jaguars’ have a real playoff path. Maybe they should be higher on this list, but until last week it was starting to look rough.
19. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1, up 1 spot): Dallas’ bolstered defense looked much improved Monday night in a 33-16 win, albeit against the hapless Raiders. But maybe there is life yet for the Cowboys, who just need to be average defensively most week with the potential of their offense.
20. Carolina Panthers (6-5, up 3 spots): The Panthers are the ultimate wildcard week to week. They went from a 17-7 loss at home to the Saints in which QB Bryce Young passed for just 124 yards and an INT to a 30-27 overtime win at the Falcons in which Young set the franchise single-game record with 448 passing yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Good luck predicting what Carolina will do Monday at San Francisco — it wouldn’t be a surprise at this point if it loses 40-3 or wins 35-20.
Not This Year
21. Minnesota Vikings (4-6, down 3 spots): J.J. McCarthy ain’t it. All evidence and logic says the Vikings wasted the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft and threw away this season by turning it over to McCarthy, who has been held under 160 passing yards in four of his five starts while throwing for 6 TDs and 8 INTs. Maybe he proves the doubters — us at the top of the list — wrong, but he looks like Zach Wilson 2.0 at this point.
22. Atlanta Falcons (3-7, down 3 spots): QB Michael Penix is undergoing season-ending knee surgery, meaning it’s back to Kirk Cousins for the reeling Falcons, who have lost five straight.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7, down 1 spot): Joe Burrow, who has been out since a Week 2 turf toe injury, was a full participant in practice Wednesday, teasing a potential return this week against the Patriots. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Burrow doesn’t play defense.
24. Miami Dolphins (4-7, up 1 spot): That’s three wins in four games for the Dolphins, who followed up their stunning upset over the Bills with a 16-13 win over Washington in Spain on Sunday. This team hasn’t quit on embattled head coach Mike McDaniel.
25. Arizona Cardinals (3-8, down 1 spot): Jacoby Brissett set an NFL single-game record with 47 completions last week (on 57 attempts for 452 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs). And the Cardinals still lost by 19 points to San Francisco.
Nothing To See Here, Folks
26. New York Giants (2-9, up 1 spot): QB Jaxson Dart looks on track to return from his concussion after missing the last game. So there’s that.
27. Washington Commanders (3-8, down 1 spot): The season from Hell for Washington continues with six straight losses and counting entering a tough game vs. the Broncos and more Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
28. New Orleans Saints (2-8, up 1 spot): The Saints were on bye last week coming off their win over the Panthers. The rest of the season is purely an evaluation of rookie QB Tyler Shough.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8, down 1 spot): Poor Pete Carroll. That’s all.
30. New York Jets (2-9, no change): The Jets officially benched QB Justin Fields in favor of Tyrod Taylor this week.
31. Cleveland Browns (2-8, no change): At least rookie QB Shedeur Sanders will have gotten to practice with the first-team offense this time before making his first NFL start Sunday. He completed just 4 of 16 passes for 47 yards and an INT after getting thrown into the fire off the bench vs. Baltimore with Dillon Gabriel concussed.
32. Tennessee Titans (1-9, no change): The march for a second straight No. 1 overall draft pick continues as Tennessee hosts Seattle this week.