The Heisman Trophy race now comes down to the final two weeks of the regular season and then conference championship games before votes have to be cast.
What was a four-quarterback is down to three after Alabama’s Ty Simpson threw a costly pick-6 and coughed up an equally costly fumble in the Crimson Tide’s 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma, which dropped his Heisman odds all the way from +550 to +15000, per BetMGM.
There’s no mercy in November in college football.
Meanwhile, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (-115) leapfrogged Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+225) as the new Heisman favorite after completing 22 of 24 passes for 299 yards and 4 TDs in the No. 2-ranked Hoosiers’ 31-7 win over Wisconsin on Saturday.
Sayin threw for just 184 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State’s 48-10 drubbing of UCLA.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed made a surge to stay on the fringe of the Heisman race, with his odds going from +750 to +500 after leading the No. 3 Aggies back from a 27-point halftime deficit at South Carolina with 28 unanswered points in a 31-30 win.
It was absolutely a “Heisman moment” for Reed, who passed for 439 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (both in the second quarter) to keep the Aggies undefeated at 10-0, but was it enough to truly give him a chance to catch the other two QBs of unbeaten teams?
Let’s break down what each quarterback needs to do from here to win the Heisman.
With that in mind, let’s break down what each of those quarterbacks needs to do to win college football’s top individual honor.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
When the Heisman race is as tight as it became in recent weeks, momentum and narrative are everything.
Mendoza, the redshirt junior who transferred into Indiana this year from Cal, has both.
It started when he atoned for his own costly late interception at Penn State two weeks ago to lead the game-winning touchdown drive (80 yards in 10 plays), capped by a perfect pass in the back of the end zone to Omar Cooper Jr. for the 27-24 win. Then he backed it up with about as perfect a QB performance as there could be Saturday at Wisconsin.
Indiana has been so dominant this year that Mendoza often has watched chunks of the fourth quarter from the sideline, depressing his overall numbers a tad, but they’re still impressive. He’s passed for 2,641 yards, 30 TDs and 5 INTs and rushed for 216 yards and 5 scores. He also had an earlier Heisman statement when he led Indiana to a 30-20 road win over then-No. 3 Oregon last month, completing 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with the touchdown coming on a 12-play, 75-yard go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter.
He also has the narrative advantage. Indiana is 11-0 for the first time in program history and even better than its incredible 11-win season breakout season last year, and Mendoza has set a program record with those 30 TD passes.
Doing all that at Indiana just means a little more than being the latest star Ohio State or Alabama QB to put up gaudy stats — it just does.
So what does Mendoza need to do from here to lock up the Heisman?
It really all comes down to the Big Ten championship game now, barring absolutely unforeseen chaos. Indiana closes the regular season against a bad Purdue team. Mendoza just needs to remain steady through that game and then perform well in the Big Ten title game.
The expectation is that it will be No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana going head-to-head on Dec. 6 in Indianapolis, and if that’s the case to the victor goes the spoils — the QB of the winning team (unless he somehow struggles and his team wins despite him, which is unlikely, or Indiana loses but Mendoza puts up an incredible stat line that dwarfs Sayin’s) should win the Heisman when votes are cast two days later.
Ohio State still has one more hurdle to get to Indy, though. After hosting Rutgers this coming week, the Buckeyes finish on the road at rival Michigan, and it can’t be ignored that the Wolverines have won the last four meetings in the storied series (even last year during Ohio State’s national title run).
If the Buckeyes lose to Michigan, the Heisman is Mendoza’s.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
That Sayin had been the Heisman front-runner the last couple weeks and now isn’t simply because he didn’t put up video game stats in a 48-10 win that didn’t require him to do so speaks to how fickle these things can be.
The redshirt freshman first-year starter has been incredible, passing for 2,675 yards, 25 TDs and 4 INTs. In Big Ten play, he has 17 TDs and just 1 INT, and his 80.1% completion rate is 6.9% better than any other FBS quarterback.
The only knock, if there is one, is that Ohio State has had an exceedingly favorable schedule since opening the season with that 14-7 win over then-No. 1 Texas. Outside of that, the Buckeyes’ only ranked opponent was Illinois, which is now well off the top-25 radar.
So Sayin needs that Big Ten championship game stage to punctuate his incredible debut season.
The Heisman race has shifted so many times this season, and it can absolutely do so again if Sayin has a big game in a convincing win over Michigan and then leads the Buckeyes past the Hoosiers in Indianapolis.
This isn’t over yet by any means.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed
Through two quarters Saturday as No. 3 Texas A&M trailed 30-3 at home to unranked South Carolina with Reed throwing two picks in the process, it looked like his Heisman campaign was as dead as Simpson’s would be.
And then Reed led the Aggies to the biggest second-half comeback in program history and to their first 10-0 start since 1992. How’s that for narrative?
Reed’s career-high 439 passing yards included touchdown passes of 27, 39 and 14 yards in the third quarter and 71 passing yards (plus 8 rushing) on the game-winning TD drive in the fourth quarter (after he had a would-be 25-yard TD run called back on penalty).
No. 3-ranked Texas A&M is a great story in its own right as one of just three undefeated teams in college football in coach Mike Elko’s second season, and the redshirt sophomore Reed has been the catalyst all season for the Aggies.
He has 2,632 passing yards, 22 TDs and 8 INTs along with 391 rushing yards and 6 TDs on the ground.
Among other standout performances, Reed also passed for 360 yards (2 TDs, 1 INT, plus 37 rushing yards) in Texas A&M’s 41-40 win at Notre Dame in Week 3, and he helped end the Brian Kelly Era at LSU by passing for 202 yards and 2 TDs (albeit with 2 picks) and rushing for 108 yards and 2 scores in a 49-25 Aggies win in Baton Rouge.
So can he win the Heisman?
It’s going to be tough, but anything is possible.
He’d need Ohio State and Sayin to lose to Michigan and Mendoza and Indiana to then lose to the Wolverines, USC or Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, or Mendoza to play poorly in a Big Ten championship game win while Reed shines in the SEC championship game.
The Aggies close the schedule in two weeks at Texas, so a big game there to finish a perfect regular season could close the gap a little with the other two QBs. But Reed is going to need Mendoza and Sayin to have setbacks to open the door for him.
– That’s the only way we can see him usurping the other three QBs and winning the Heisman, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. November in college football is a month of wreckage, so Sayin, Mendoza and Simpson could all stumble to open the door for him. Reed just needs to do his part for now and pile up a couple more Heisman moments along the way.