This 2025 Heisman Trophy race has been as hard to handicap as any in years.
At various points, Texas QB Arch Manning, Oklahoma QB John Mateer, Oregon QB Dante Moore, Miami QB Carson Beck, Alabama QB Ty Simpson and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza have all been projected as the Heisman frontrunner or co-frontrunner.
And now it’s changed again.
Per the oddsmakers at BetMGM, Ohio State sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman at +175, followed by Mendoza +225, Simpson +350 and Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+750).
After backing Simpson as our Heisman pick for weeks, we have to agree that it may be Sayin’s to lose at this point.
Let’s break it down.
The Heisman Case For Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
The true sophomore is an emerging star for the No. 1-ranked team in college football that somehow looks like it might be even better than its national championship team from last year while off to an 8-0 start.
Sayin’s efficiency is elite already. His 80.7% completion rate is the best in college football by 7.6% over Washington’s Demond Williams Jr. and has Sayin on a historic pace.
Completion percentage can be a distorted stat in today’s game with a high volume of screen passes and check downs common for most QBs, but what Sayin is doing is even more impressive when considering how good he is at attacking down the field.
He was 20-of-23 passing (87%) for 316 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions Saturday in a 38-14 win over Ohio State. The game prior he was 36 of 42 (85.7%) for 393 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs.
For the season — his first in college football — he has passed for 2,188 yards, 23 TDs and 3 INTs while posting a 15-0 touchdown/interception ratio in Big Ten play.
And then there’s the eye test.
The Heisman Challengers
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza: What doesn’t get taken into account is how many games this season Mendoza has left early with his team so far ahead already. Like Saturday when he threw his final pass early in the fourth quarter of a 55-10 win at Maryland. He finished 14 of 21 for 201 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with a rushing TD. The Hoosiers’ collective dominance is capping Mendoza’s raw numbers a little — 2,124 passing yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 220 rushing yards and 4 TDs — but there’s no denying how great the Cal transfer has been in his first season in Bloomington.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson: The Crimson Tide was on a bye last week so Simpson’s numbers remain at 2,184 passing yards, 20 TDs and 1 INT (plus 2 rushing TDs). The case for Simpson is that he’s led Alabama to four wins over ranked opponents already and will get a shot to add another in two weeks against No. 11 Oklahoma and then a potential SEC championship game matchup. If the Tide wins out and claims the SEC championship, no QB would have beaten more great teams than Simpson, and that will resonate with voters.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed: The Aggies were also on a bye last week. Reed has passed for 1,972 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs and rushed for 349 yards and 6 TDs, while leading No. 3 Texas A&M to an 8-0 start and marquee wins over Notre Dame and LSU. His raw numbers lag behind the others on this list, but if the Aggies keep winning, he can’t be discounted. Texas A&M still has road games at No. 19 Missouri and No. 13 Texas to come and the potential for an SEC championship game opportunity.
Handicapping The Heisman Race
The final votes are cast after the conference championship games, and it ultimately may come down to who wins the anticipated showdown between Indiana and Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
The Buckeyes have one big hurdle remaining at Michigan in the regular-season finale, so if they trip up there or in the championship game that could derail Sayin’s Heisman push. But if Ohio State is a 13-0 Big Ten champion with a win over Indiana and Sayin plays even just steady in that game, this does feel like his trophy to lose.
That said, Indiana has an even easier path to the Big Ten title game with remaining contests at Penn State, home vs. Wisconsin and at Purdue. There’s no reason to think the Hoosiers and Mendoza won’t keep lighting up the scoreboard, and if the veteran QB leads Indiana to a Big Ten championship (beating Ohio State or any other opponent) that is his path to the Heisman.
It seems Simpson is going to have to be more than just steady to overtake those two unless both stumble at some point. Ditto for Reed.
But then again, every time we (and everyone else) has thought this Heisman race had some clarity, it’s taken fresh twists and turns, so it should be a captivating final month ahead in pursuit of college football’s top individual honor.