This is the halfway point of the college football season with most teams having played six games now, so the national rankings have tightened and conference races are coming into focus.
It’s still too soon to handicap the full 12-team College Football Playoff field as the final slots will have plenty of suitors down to the wire, but we’ve seen enough football now to hone in on true national title contenders.
Week 7 of the college season was especially instructive in further sorting out which teams belong — and do not belong, regardless of record — in that conversation.
So let’s break down what we’ve learned to this point and handicap the national title favorites as we see it halfway through the season.
True Top Contenders
1. Ohio State: It’s no bold proclamation to put the reigning national champs first on this list, but the Buckeyes have earned it. They’ve been the best defensive team in the country under new coordinator Matt Patricia (to some surprise, honestly), holding opponents to a FBS-low 6.8 points per game (and 229 yards per game, which is tied for fourth-best nationally). Meanwhile, Julian Sayin is looking the part at quarterback and Jeremiah Smith is still the best receiver in college football. The 14-7 Week 1 win over Texas set the tone, and the Buckeyes have won their first three Big Ten games by an average of 25 points.
2. Indiana: The Hoosiers are ranked No. 3 in the AP top 25 — their highest-ever ranking — but they’re No. 2 on our list. Look, it’s time to lose any preconceived notions of what Indiana football is, has been or can be. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are a different program than what resided in Bloomington previously, and his second team looks even better than his 11-win squad from last year. Critics could still poke holes in that incredible run last year because Indiana did lose its only two games against ranked opponents — to Ohio State in the regular season and Notre Dame in the playoffs. But not this year. The Hoosiers obliterated a then-top-10 Illinois team, 63-10, last month and just won 30-20 on the road at then-No. 3 Oregon. It’s time to believe.
3. Alabama: The Crimson Tide are sixth in the AP poll because of its season-opening loss to Florida State, but that game seems less and less relevant as the Tide roll through one ranked opponent after another. First, it was the road win at Georgia, then Vanderbilt and then another big road win at Missouri. Those three teams are all still ranked in the top 17 and a combined 15-3 with their only losses coming to Alabama. Quarterback Ty Simpson is top Heisman Trophy candidate, and while he got his share of criticism last year and after the loss to FSU, coach Kalen DeBoer’s track record speaks for itself. Just two years ago, he had Washington in the national championship game. He’s certainly a good enough coach to get Alabama there.
4. Miami: If any coach of a top 5 team merits skepticism, it’s Miami’s Mario Cristobal. He’s a fine program-builder, an impact recruiter, a good developmental coach in the trenches … but his teams going back to Oregon have consistently come up short of their potential and lost big games. Does that change this year? Maybe. Quarterback Carson Beck, the veteran Georgia transfer, is also a leading Heisman candidate, the Hurricanes have a stout defense and are winning the big games so far. The 27-24 Week 1 win over Notre Dame remains the highlight, but blowing out a ranked South Florida team that hasn’t lost to anyone else is also notable.
5. Oregon: If Indiana is as good as we believe them to me, then Oregon’s loss to the Hoosiers — even at home — isn’t damning. Last year, Oregon beat Ohio State in the regular season only to have that result reversed in the playoffs. That was the Ducks’ first regular-season loss since the 2023 season, and looking at the rest of their schedule it’s probably the last before the Big Ten championship game and playoffs.
6. Georgia: Georgia’s only loss came by three points to Alabama, and Kirby Smart has proven over the years that losing to the Tide has minimal if any bearing on what his Bulldogs do the rest of the season. That said, Georgia hasn’t exactly made anything look easy this fall, needing overtime to beat Tennessee and a second-half rally to get past Auburn. This Georgia team doesn’t look like the dominant iterations that won national titles for Smart, but there’s some benefit of the doubt afforded to a coach with his resume of success that the Bulldogs may not have shown their best yet.
Tier Two: Maybe, But Very Skeptical
7. Texas A&M: The Aggies are No. 4 in the AP poll and have done everything they can to prove themselves to this point, including the 41-40 Week 3 win at Notre Dame. But that’s the only ranked team they’ve faced so far, and that game was a coin flip in the end. Quarterback Marcel Reed is enjoying a true breakout season and coach Mike Elko’s stock is rising by the year, but it feels too early to lump this team in with the ones listed above.
8. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have been as dominant as any team in college football, winning all six of their games by 24 points or more. That included a 34-10 road win over a Utah team that is now 5-1 and back in the rankings and a 35-11 win over a now 5-1 Houston team. But Texas Tech hasn’t won more than eight games in a season since Mike Leach left town. Excuse us for maintaining some skepticism still.
9. Notre Dame: On one hand, the Fighting Irish reached the national championship game last year and have been a very formidable program under Marcus Freeman. On the other, Notre Dame lost both of its big games so far — to Texas A&M and Miami. Beating up on the likes of Purdue, Arkansas, Boise State and NC State is all well and good, but we need to see more.
10. Texas: It doesn’t feel right doing this, but goodness, that 23-6 win over previously-unbeaten Oklahoma on Saturday was impressive. To be clear, for the Longhorns to pay off as a longshot they need that level of defensive play each week. QB Arch Manning was better Saturday — absolutely — but he’s shown too much of the opposite to believe he can be the reason this team wins big games consistently. Texas may have been the preseason No. 1, but with two losses already and big games still to go at Georgia and vs. Texas A&M (and, sure, Vanderbilt) to even get in position for a playoff spot, it’s hard to see it all coming together.
Sorry, Can’t See It
Ole Miss: The Rebels are 6-0 and ranked No. 5 nationally, but they barely got past a bad Washington State team at home on Saturday. The same Washington State that lost by 49 points at North Texas (yes, that happened) and 35 points vs. unranked Washington. Could Ole Miss make the playoffs? Sure, but unless it really makes a statement these next two weeks at Georgia and at Oklahoma, a national title seems beyond reach.
LSU: The Tigers lost their biggest game so far, at Ole Miss, and wins over Clemson and Florida don’t mean as much now. Also, they’ve yet to score more than 20 points against a Power Four opponent.
Tennessee: Fun team, adept at getting into high-scoring shootouts, but not a national title contender.
Oklahoma: Despite being 5-1, Oklahoma is going to have a hard time even reaching the playoffs. That loss to Texas hurt bad, both from a perception standpoint and logistically, with one of the toughest second-half schedules in the country. The Sooners go to South Carolina this week and then rattle off five straight games against teams currently in the AP top 25 — vs. No. 5 Ole Miss, at No. 11 Tennessee, at No. 6 Alabama, vs. No. 16 Missouri and vs. No. 10 LSU.
USC: The Trojans are 5-1 and just walloped Michigan, 31-13, which should have opened some eyes. This is a fun team with the potential to remain one of the top offenses in college football. But the Trojans have already lost at Illinois and have too much to prove still after the last couple years to be viewed as a true national contender.
The rest: Georgia Tech (6-0), BYU (6-0), Missouri (5-1), Vanderbilt (5-1), Virginia (5-1), Utah (5-1), South Florida (5-1), Memphis (6-0) and Cincinnati (5-1) and others are all having nice seasons and are chasing playoff spots. But anything beyond that is improbable.