The college football season is at its midway point, and the Heisman Trophy race is coming into clear focus — or so it seems.
Then again, most everything in college football is tenuous from one week to the next. That’s what makes it so great.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was the co-betting favorite for the Heisman a week ago, and then the Ducks lost at home to Indiana and Moore’s odds dropped from +500 to +1700, per BetMGM.
That’s how it goes. At one point in time, Texas QB Arch Manning, LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and more recently Oklahoma QB John Mateer were also all viewed as top Heisman contenders but are no far off the radar.
The current co-favorites are Miami QB Carson Beck and Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+350), followed by Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+550), Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1400), Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+1500) and Moore.
But bear in mind, when the season started, Simpson and Mendoza were basically off the radar at +5500, those other QBs were all +2000, and there’s still half a season left to play — meaning, anything can happen.
That’s why we need to not only break down the favorites but also a couple dark horse picks that are still plenty relevant.
Handicapping the Heisman Favorites
The sportsbooks are a good reference point, but you didn’t come here to simply have their odds regurgitated. We have our own view on the matter, and here’s how we rank the Heisman favorites entering Week 8 of the college football season.
1. Alabama QB Ty Simpson
In helping Alabama to three straight wins over ranked opponents — on the road at Georgia, home vs. Vanderbilt and on the road at Missouri — Simpson has passed for 816 yards, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.
That pick came on the first series vs. Vanderbilt, and Simpson responded over the rest of the game by leading six scoring drives, one that ended in a missed field goal and just one punt.
He leads the SEC with those 16 TD passes, and every other QB in the top 10 on that list has thrown at least 4 INTs. Simpson is also just 2 yards off the SEC passing lead at 1,678 (behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar at 1,680) and has 2 rushing TDs.
Alabama has four more spotlight opportunities for Simpson to build his Heisman case as the Crimson Tide hosts No. 11 Tennessee (this week), No. 10 LSU and No. 14 Oklahoma and closes on the schedule on the road at rival Auburn. Plus a potential SEC championship game before Heisman votes are due.
The Tide looks to be better than all of those teams, so the path is there for Simpson to lock up the trophy if he continues playing at this level. If he’s a leading reason why Alabama — written off by some after a down 2024 season and the opening loss to Florida State this year — is back to being Alabama, that will resonate with voters.
2. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Indiana already has two top-10 wins by double-digits — 63-10 over Illinois (no longer ranked but was No. 9 at the time) and 30-20 on the road last weekend at then-No. 3 Oregon.
Mendoza, the Cal transfer, was an absurd 21-of-23 passing for 267 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs vs. the Fighting Illini and a more modest 20 of 31 for 215 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT vs. the Ducks.
The interception vs. Oregon was a potentially costly pick-6 early in the fourth quarter that tied the game at 20-20, but Mendoza immediately responded with a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to put the Hoosiers up for good. Mendoza was 5 of 7 for 62 yards and the TD pass on that go-ahead drive.
For the season, he has 1,423 passing yards, 17 TDs (fourth-most nationally) and 2 INTs.
Indiana doesn’t play another ranked opponent the rest of the way, so Mendoza won’t have any true spotlight matchups until a potential Big Ten championship showdown, though the Nov. 8 game at Penn State should be a primetime matchup despite the Nittany Lions’ recent skid.
That said, if Indiana runs the table — which it should at this point — it will be one of the best stories in college football, and narratives certainly factor into the Heisman discussion.
3. Miami QB Carson Beck
Beck is a compelling narrative as well.
Some felt he could have been the top NFL draft pick had he left Georgia after his redshirt sophomore season in 2023, when he passed for 3,941 yards, 24 TDs (plus 4 rushing) and 6 INTs. But he came back, had a down season and a seemingly mutual parting from the Bulldogs while landing in Miami for a fifth-year reset.
So far, Beck has restored his draft stock a good bit, passing for 1,213 yards, 11 TDs and 3 INTs (1 rushing TD) while leading Miami to a 5-0 start and No. 2 national ranking.
We slot him behind the other two QBs, however, because his best games have come against Bethune-Cookman and spiraling Florida State. He was solid if not spectacular in the opening 27-24 win over then-No. 6 Notre Dame (20 of 30 for 205 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs). He was 23 of 28 for 340 yards, 3 passing TDs and a rushing TD in a 49-12 win over a South Florida team that hasn’t lost otherwise and is still ranked, but he also threw 2 picks in that game. And he had just 160 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT in a win over Florida.
Miami also has no other ranked opponents on its schedule until a likely ACC championship game, so Beck will have to be outstanding and add some style points the rest of the way. He should be a Heisman finalist, but his path to winning the award may hinge on Simpson and Mendoza incurring setbacks.
Potentially Finalists At Least
It’s harder to make a case for the next names on the list, but being one of the four Heisman finalists is prestigious in its own right so let’s hit on these guys quickly as well.
Oregon QB Dante Moore: Moore was our pick to win it entering last week, but you can’t lose head-to-head to another Heisman finalist and have a rough performance (186 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT and 6 sacks). Oregon has a strong chance to win the rest of its games and if it gets in the Big Ten championship game, Moore would have a shot to make a late surge. So don’t write him off entirely yet, but that would require Ohio State to lose at some point (and Oregon to secure the tiebreaker) or Indiana to lose twice. Very unlikely. But Moore can still battle for a finalist spot — he’s passed for 1,396 yards, 15 TDs and 3 INTs.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith: As noted here last week, Smith may be the best wide receiver in college football, but he would need an otherworldly season to win the Heisman. He’s 20th nationally in receptions (40) and tied for 21st in receiving yards (505) albeit tied for second with 7 receiving TDs.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin: If Ohio State stays unbeaten through the Big Ten championship game and ranked No. 1 in the country, there will have to be some consideration for a Buckeye to be represented here. But Smith and Sayin (1,479 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs) will likely split votes. Both are only sophomores and can make another run at it next year.
Heisman Trophy Dark Horses
It’s unlikely anyone outside of that top three wins the Heisman, but crazier things have happened in college football, so we wouldn’t be doing due diligence if we didn’t spotlight a couple worthy dark horse candidates.
USC QB Jayden Maiava (+2200): The Trojans are 5-1 overall, 3-1 in the Big Ten, just blew out a then-No. 15 Michigan team and took their only loss by two points on a last-second field goal at Illinois. Maiava has been excellent in every game, passing for 1,852 yards (third-most in the FBS, tops in the Big Ten), 13 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 4 rushing TDs. It’s unlikely the Trojans escape the rest of their schedule unscathed, but the opportunities are there with No. 13 Notre Dame (this week), No. 25 Nebraska and No. 8 Oregon still to come.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+2000): The Aggies are unbeaten and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll — their highest mark since 2000. They have a 41-40 win at Notre Dame to their credit, but the rest of the schedule has been fairly blah so far. With road games at No. 10 LSU, No. 16 Missouri and No. 21 Texas still to come, the opportunities are certainly there for Reed (1,490 passing yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs with 3 rushing TDs) to make a statement. But we’re taking a wait-and-see approach in this case.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+2000): Again, narrative drives this one. A transfer from Division II Ferris State who opened the season as Ole Miss’ backup, Chambliss has passed for 1,286 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT and rushed for 281 yards and 3 TDs with almost all of that coming in four games. The Rebels are still undefeated and ranked No. 5, but they surprising struggled to put away a bad Washington State team at home last week (24-21) and go on the road to No. 9 Georgia and No. 14 Oklahoma the next two weeks. We’re expecting Ole Miss to stumble a time or two the rest of the way, but if not then Chambliss could shoot up the board.