The new College Football Playoff rankings will unveil Tuesday with the latest look at how the selection committee sizes up the field of contenders and hopefuls.
There’s still two weeks of regular-season games and then the conference championships before the 12-team field is set, so this is an inexact science at best, but we have enough data to take a shot at projecting how the playoff bracket will settle.
RELATED: Week 12 CFP Rankings
Let’s break it down.
(Note: The numbering does not correspond to seeding projections but rather the likelihood of securing a spot on the bracket, period. Also, we’re using the latest AP rankings as the CFP rankings don’t reset until Tuesday).
College Football Playoff Locks
1. Indiana (11-0, No. 2 in AP poll): Why is Indiana first on this list ahead of the next team? Because there’s almost zero chance the Hoosiers lose in their finale in two weeks against Purdue (which has not beaten a Power Four team all season). Indiana is essentially a lock to be 12-0 and play in the Big Ten championship game, and even a loss in Indianapolis would not change their CFP fate — only potentially their seeding.
2. Ohio State (10-0, No. 1 in AP poll): The reigning national champs have had a pretty favorable path back to the playoffs, but the Buckeyes have also been dominant in taking care of business along the way. There is no way foreseeable way they don’t make the CFP with remaining games against Rutgers and rival Michigan. Even if Ohio State loses to Michigan for a fifth straight year, it would be 11-1 and in that scenario actually miss the Big Ten championship game (as best as we can break down the potential tiebreaker scenarios with the Wolverines, Oregon and USC all still in play for the second spot). That’s actually a beneficial scenario for CFP hopes as it would eliminate the potential for taking a second loss, but really, even a two-loss Ohio State team is getting in — let’s be honest. And, of course, if the Buckeyes win out against Rutgers and in the Big House vs. Michigan, they’d be 12-0 and even a loss to Indiana in Indianapolis wouldn’t matter. The bottom line is Ohio State is playoff-bound however the dominos fall.
3. Texas A&M (10-0, No. 3 in AP poll): The Aggies are in a prime spot in the CFP race as well after surviving a 27-point halftime deficit against South Carolina on Saturday in a wild 31-30 win to stay unbeaten. Texas A&M closes the schedule with Samford and on the road at Texas. Obviously, if the Aggies win out they are 12-0 and in the SEC championship game with their CFP spot secured regardless of outcome. If they lose to Texas, however, it looks likely they miss the SEC title game in favor of Georgia, which again would actually work in their favor while eliminating any chance for a second loss. But like with Ohio State, even losing to Texas and, say, Alabama in the SEC title game would not change Texas A&M’s playoff fate.
(As we’ll allude to more down this list, the SEC tiebreaker scenario is total chaos and cannot be clearly outlined at this point if it gets to the fourth tiebreaker in a multi-team deadlock and goes to strength of schedule that is still being determined based on the other remaining SEC games.)
Essentially Locks for College Football Playoff
4. Notre Dame (8-2, No. 9 in AP poll): To be clear, we’re NOT saying Notre Dame is going to get the No. 4 seed — not at all. The numbering merely corresponds purely to teams who can most likely be written onto the bracket in ink at this point. The Fighting Irish close out the schedule with Syracuse and Stanford, which are both 3-7. The Irish been dominant during its eight-game winning streak, winning each game by double-digits, including 34-24 over USC (No. 16 in the AP poll this week) and 37-15 over then-No. 22 Pittsburgh on Saturday. Notre Dame’s losses came to ranked Miami and Texas A&M. Win out and Notre Dame is back in the CFP. We’ll give the Irish a 99.5-percent chance of being on the bracket.
5. Georgia (9-1, No. 4 in AP poll): Georgia’s 35-10 win over Texas on Saturday puts it in prime position for a playoff berth — especially if it gets shut out of the SEC title game, which would happen if Texas A&M beats Texas and Alabama beats Auburn. If either of those teams lose, however, and Georgia slides into the championship game via the convoluted tiebreaker of one-loss SEC teams, then we have to at least account for this scenario. What if the Bulldogs lose their finale to nonconference foe Georgia Tech (not out of the question at all), backdoors their way into the SEC title game with “help” from the aforementioned teams and then lose in Atlanta for their third loss? No three-loss team earned a CFP at-large berth last year, though Georgia would still be tough to keep out in that scenario. We’re 95 percent sure the Bulldogs will be part of the bracket.
Highly Likely to Make College Football Playoff
6. Texas Tech (10-1 T-No. 6 in AP poll): The Red Raiders have 10 wins by 22 points or more, including a 29-7 victory over their top Big 12 competition BYU, and their only loss came by four points on the road at Arizona State with starting quarterback Behren Morton sidelined. Texas Tech closes the schedule out against lowly West Virginia and should be 11-1 heading to the Big 12 championship game where it would most likely get a rematch with BYU or maybe Utah if the Cougars lose and a multi-team tiebreaker scenario emerges. Even a loss to one of those teams in the Big 12 championship game should not prevent the Red Raiders from making the playoffs, especially if it’s a BYU team it already beat this season, but when it’s left up to the committee’s discretion for a two-loss team outside of the SEC/Big Ten, who knows? We’re 90 percent certain Texas Tech will be on the 12-team bracket.
7. Ole Miss (10-1, No. 5 in AP poll): Without getting into the weeds on the tiebreakers — because again there are so many variables still in play based on overall strength of schedule if it goes to a three- or four-way tiebreaker of one-loss SEC teams — what is clear is that Ole Miss has the least likely path among those teams (Alabama, Georgia and potentially Texas A&M if it loses to Texas) to get to the conference championship game. Which is a good thing for the Rebels. Basically, if they win their finale against Mississippi State in two weeks, they are a playoff lock at 11-1. The Bulldogs have been competitive most weeks, though, that game is in Starkville and rivalry games can be unpredictable. If Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State and the SEC winds up with a logjam of teams with two or fewer losses, nothing can be assumed here. We’re 85 percent sure the Rebels are playoff-bound, though.
Now It Gets Tricky But Still Likely To Make College Football Playoff
It becomes more of a crapshoot at this point.
8. Oklahoma (8-2, No. 8 in AP Poll): We certainly didn’t expect the Sooners to make it after the home loss to Ole Miss and with a daunting schedule ahead. But they pulled off back-to-back ranked road wins at Tennessee and the 23-21 stunner at Alabama on Saturday, while it closes the schedule against a Missouri team that may or may not have starting QB Beau Pribula back from injury this week and an LSU team that went off a cliff. The Sooners can’t make the SEC title game, so these two games are all that matter. Win out and they’re in in the playoff, lose one and they’re almost assuredly out. Both games are at home in Norman, but we wouldn’t call either locks for Oklahoma. We’ll give the Sooners a 70 percent chance of finishing the job and making the CFP.
9. Alabama (8-2, No. 10 in AP Poll): The Crimson Tide had won eight straight games, including four over ranked SEC opponents, before the two-point loss at home Saturday to the Sooners. But because of the season-opening loss to Florida State, this loss to Oklahoma is enough to throw Alabama’s entire playoff outlook into question. The main reason for any question as to whether the Tide makes it onto the bracket is the likelihood that it still makes the SEC championship game and faces the real potential of a third loss. Like we noted relative to Georgia, no three-loss team earned a CFP at-large berth last year, but Alabama would also likely be viewed in a different light. The Tide plays Eastern Illinois this week before the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn. It should win both of those, and then we’ll see how the tiebreakers for the SEC championship game play out. We’ll also put Alabama at 70 percent to make the playoffs.
(Honestly, we’re slightly more confident in Alabama’s path than Oklahoma’s, but given the head-to-head result from Saturday it wouldn’t feel right putting the Tide ahead of the Sooners here.)
10. Oregon (9-1, T-No. 6 in AP poll): The Ducks have a tough finish with No. 17 USC at home this week and then a road game at Washington, which has given Oregon trouble in the Dan Lanning Era and is good enough this year to put up a challenge. But if the Ducks beat the Trojans — and Lincoln Riley’s record in tough Big Ten road games at USC suggests Oregon is in a favorable spot to do so — they are likely in the playoffs regardless as the Big Ten’s third team (even with a subsequent loss to Washington). The Big Ten is going to get three teams if the third is 10-2, plain and simple.
If the Ducks lose to USC and beat Washington (and the Trojans finish with a win over UCLA), then it gets complicated. Oregon would still be 10-2 that way but now the fourth Big Ten team behind Ohio State, Indiana and USC. For The Big Ten to get four teams in, one of the SEC teams on this list or Notre Dame has to get bounced (because the final two spots here go to ACC/Group of Five automatic qualifiers). It won’t be Notre Dame in this scenario, as the Irish beat USC by 10 points, but as noted, Oklahoma could still lose, Ole Miss isn’t out of the woods yet, and if Alabama or Georgia lose the SEC title game and get to 3 losses … wooo boy, things get interesting.
The only scenario in which the Ducks definitely miss the playoff is losing both of the final two games, which is supremely unlikely considering they’ve lost just one regular-season game in the last two years (last month to Indiana). But losing to USC would leave them very vulnerable to the whims of the selection committee. We’ll put Oregon’s CFP chances at 60 percent based largely on the assumption they beat USC this week.
Remaining Automatic Qualifiers for College Football Playoff
11. ACC champion: The ACC is definitely only getting one team into the playoff this year, and it remains anyone’s guess as to who that will be. Georgia Tech (9-1, 6-1 ACC, No. 12 AP), Virginia (9-2, 6-1, No. 19 AP), Pittsburgh (7-3, 5-1), SMU (7-3, 5-1) are the favorites to make the ACC championship game, while Miami (8-2, 4-2, No. 14 AP) would need some chaos to ensue.
Let’s deal with the Hurricanes first — it’s hard to envision them getting an at-large berth despite being so highly ranked. They have the notable Week 1 win over Notre Dame, but both of their losses came to teams now out of the rankings (Louisville and SMU). Miami closes on the road at Virginia Tech and Pitt and also could absolutely lose that final game to the Panthers. Even at 10-2, though, they’d have to be picked over the third and potentially fourth Big Ten teams, or another SEC hopeful in Vanderbilt or the potential for a second Big 12 team if BYU or Utah beat Texas Tech in the championship game. So Miami, once as high as No. 2 in the country, needs to back into the ACC title game somehow and win it, and that just seems beyond improbable.
Some national college football media still believes in Miami’s path for an at-large bid, but we don’t see it.
Anyways, moving on. Here’s what the other ACC contenders have remaining:
Virginia: vs. Virginia Tech. The only way Virginia doesn’t make the ACC championship game with a win over the Hokies is if it ends in a three-way tie with Georgia Tech and SMU and comes up third in tiebreaker based on winning percentage vs. common opponents, but that’s not clear just yet. Playoff chances 40 percent
Georgia Tech: vs. Pitt, vs. No. 5 Georgia. The Yellow Jackets can clinch their spot in the ACC championship game with a win vs. Pitt. Despite the Panthers’ ugly loss at Notre Dame on Saturday, they had won five straight before that while looking downright dominant in ACC play. This could be a tough game for the Yellow Jackets, so while their path to the title game is clear it isn’t easy. And if they make the championship game and lose, they would need to have beaten Georgia in that regular-season finale to have a shot for an at-large. Playoff chances: 35 percent
SMU: vs. Louisville, at Cal. Really, the Mustangs could lose either of those games and knock themselves out. If they win out, though, their best hope would be for Georgia Tech to lose to Pitt and then Pitt to lose to Miami. That’s not a far-fetched scenario. If SMU ends up in a three-way tie, then that brings in a lot more variables and unknowns right now. Playoff chances: 15 percent
Pittsburgh: at No. 15 Georgia Tech, vs. No. 14 Miami. The Panthers have the hardest path of these four teams, for sure, needing to first win two tough games against teams also playing for their seasons. But it also has the ability to knock Georgia Tech out of the way, then needing SMU to lose one as the most viable way to lock up an ACC championship matchup with Virginia. Otherwise, we’re back to convoluted tiebreaker scenarios. Playoff chances: 10 percent
(Note: The playoff percentages for those four add up to an even 100 because one of them is guaranteed to make it — ruling out the absurd chaos needed to get Miami into the ACC championship game, that is.)
12. Highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion
The Group of Five will get representation in the playoff from whichever of its conference champs ends up highest in the final CFP rankings. That will be either James Madison from the Sun Belt or the AAC champion.
JMU (9-1) is ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll, one spot ahead of No. 22 North Texas (9-1) of the AAC. The Dukes were not included in the last CFP rankings, though, while the AAC’s South Florida was No. 22 at the time (but lost to Navy this week).
The AAC has been the better conference and its champion should have the edge, but it’s no guarantee the CFP committee will agree. Let’s dive deeper at the contenders for the final automatic berth.
James Madison (9-1): JMU has only one — one! — win over a team with a winning record (7-3 Old Dominion) while its lone loss came at Louisville. The Dukes close vs. Washington State (5-5) and Coastal Carolina (6-4), and if they win out they’d likely play Southern Miss (7-3) in the Sun Belt championship game. Playoff chances: 15 percent
(No other Sun Belt team could win that conference and be ranked higher than the AAC champ.)
Meanwhile, there is potential for a four-way tie — but more likely a three-way tie — atop the ACC standings. And since none of the teams below played all the other teams (even in the three-way scenario in the event of a Navy loss), then any team that is ranked in the latest CFP rankings and doesn’t lose on the final weekend would get into the conference championship game. With both North Texas and Tulane ranked in the new AP poll, they both could fit that criteria, setting up simple win-and-in scenarios. If it goes beyond that, or both aren’t ranked in the CFP rankings, then it gets into the weeds we don’t need to put ourselves in just yet here.
North Texas (9-1, 5-1, No. 22 AP): at Rice (5-5), vs. Temple (5-5). The Mean Green got obliterated by South Florida (66-36) in their only loss, while its notable wins came over Washington State (because of the 59-10 margin) and Navy (31-17). Again, win out and North Texas should be in. If it’s UNT-Tulane in the AAC championship game, that would be a true toss-up. Playoff chances: 35 percent
Tulane (8-2, 5-1, No. 24 AP): at Temple (5-5), vs. Charlotte (1-9). The Green Wave lost to Ole Miss and then threw one away to a middling UTSA team, losing 48-26. But it responded to beat one-time AAC favorite Memphis and have an easy path rest of the way. Again, if Tulane gets into the CFP top 25 and wins out it makes the AAC championship game. If it isn’t ranked, it would still hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over East Carolina. If Navy is still in the mix, then it gets trickier. Playoff chances: 35 percent
Navy (8-2, 6-1): at Memphis (8-3), vs. Army (5-4). The Midshipmen have the loss to North Texas and then got blown out by Notre Dame, which doesn’t factor into the conference race of course. They lacked any notable win until outlasting ranked South Florida, 41-38, on Saturday. We’d still favor Memphis to win this week and knock Navy out of the race. If the Midshipmen win out, though, they’d need Tulane to not be in the CFP rankings (setting up a two or three-way tiebreaker for the second spot) or to lose, or North Texas to lose and then sort out a potential tiebreaker. Playoff chances: 13 percent
East Carolina (7-3, 5-1): at UTSA (5-5), at FAU (4-6). The Pirates lost to NC State and BYU and took their AAC loss to Tulane. The problem here is even if they do win the AAC, which is still unlikely, they most likely would not be ranked over James Madison and would also thus need JMU to lose the Sun Belt to a three-loss team. Playoff chances: 2 percent
(Note, the playoff percentages for the Sun Belt and ACC teams mentioned combine to 100 percent as one of those teams is definitely making the CFP).
In Control Of College Football Playoff Destiny But Tough Path
13. USC (8-2, No. 16 in AP Poll): USC has put itself in a virtual win-and-in scenario heading into the big clash vs. top-10 Oregon in Eugene on Saturday and then the finale vs. rival UCLA. The Trojans have to be really lamenting the one that got away at Illinois in September (a 34-32 loss on a last-second field goal after taking the lead in the final 2 minutes). They could also feel they let a good opportunity slip away at Notre Dame last month, leading late in the third quarter before allowing a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, followed by an interception, a fumble on a trick play, a turnover on downs and a final interception to seal a 34-24 loss. This team could legitimately be 10-0. Wild.
Nonetheless, USC still has a great opportunity ahead of it thanks to wins over ranked Michigan and Iowa teams. If the Trojans beat Oregon this week and then finish off UCLA, which is sputtering to the finish, they would be hard to keep out of the playoffs as the third Big Ten team with a 10-2 record, three ranked wins (including over a top-10 Oregon) and a road loss to Notre Dame.
If Ohio State loses to Michigan in two weeks, that would open the door for USC to potentially play in the Big Ten championship game, but that would just invite a likely third loss vs. Indiana. The Trojans should want the Hoosiers and Buckeyes to win out and trust that winning these two games would be enough. Because even if Michigan also gets to 10-2 with an upset of the Buckeyes, how could the committee give the Wolverines the nod over USC when the Trojans won the head-to-head matchup so convincingly (31-13)?
The thing is … Oregon has been set as a 10.5-point favorite for good reason. Riley is 3-5 in Big Ten road games the last two years (since USC joined the conference) with the lone wins coming over UCLA last year and Purdue and Nebraska this season. Playoff chances: 25 percent
14. BYU (9-1, No. 11 in AP poll): The Cougars are in a tough spot in that while they control their path to the Big 12 championship game, needing just to win at sliding Cincinnati and UCF, that would only set up a likely rematch with Texas Tech, which blew out BYU 29-7 just two weeks ago. The Big 12 got only one team in the CFP last year, and if 11-2 BYU is the second option with two losses to the Red Raiders and only one ranked win (over Utah) they simply aren’t getting the nod over the other teams on this list — or even perhaps Vanderbilt or Miami. So BYU has to win the Big 12 championship to make the playoff, and maybe a rematch with Texas Tech does go differently. Playoff chances: 20 percent
15. Michigan (8-2, No. 18): To have any chance, the Wolverines obviously have to take care of free-falling Maryland this week on the road and then beat No. 1-ranked Ohio State in two weeks. But the fact that Michigan has won the last four meetings in the storied rivalry series — even last year as a middling team beating the eventual national champs on the road — it can’t be discounted, especially with the game in the Big House this time. Even beating the Buckeyes may not ensure a place in the Big Ten championship game, though, depending on who is tied for second place at that point. But at 10-2, this would prevent a real dilemma for the committee in a couple scenarios. As noted, if USC wins out and having already beaten Michigan in a lopsided head-to-head result, the Wolverines would need four Big Ten teams to make it — which is pulling now two spots away from the aforementioned SEC teams. Would that happen? Or, even if USC loses and Oregon wins out, the Ducks are then a one-loss team, which would still render the Wolverines the fourth Big Ten team. So to be sure of a playoff spot, Michigan needs to beat Ohio State and 1) make the Big Ten championship game and beat Indiana (unlikely), or 2) have both USC and Oregon go 1-1 the rest of the way. Playoff chances: 10 percent
Still Alive In College Football Playoff Picture But Need Help
16. Vanderbilt (8-2, No. 12 in AP poll): The Commodores still need to beat Kentucky and win at Tennessee to get to 10-2, and if they remain within the top 10-12 of the CFP rankings but with five other SEC teams ahead of them, they’re going to make for a really difficult decision. It would be a major snub for Vandy in potentially the best season in program history to be the 10-2 team that gets left out of the party. But how else can it work without other teams losing?
If the SEC picture holds, that’s five of the 12 spots (without Vanderbilt); the Big Ten gets at least two but probably three, making eight; Notre Dame is ranked higher than Vanderbilt and has an easy path to 10-2; and the auto bids for the Big 12, ACC and Group of Five make 12. So the Commodores would likely need Oregon, USC and Michigan to all lose and keep the Big Ten to two teams, and Texas Tech to win out to keep the Big 12 a one-berth league. Or one of the other SEC teams to fall out. Playoff chances: 10 percent
17. Miami (8-2, No. 14 in AP poll): We covered this in-depth up top. Miami needs a ton of help to get an at-large. It needs to win out at Virginia Tech and Pitt, it needs the Big Ten to only get two teams, and the Big 12 to only get one team or the SEC to lose a team because even Vanderbilt would probably get the nod over the Hurricanes if it comes to it. So the path for Miami is get to 10-2, have one of the six SEC teams ahead of it on this list knock itself out, plus Oregon, USC and Michigan all collapse and Texas Tech to beat BYU in the Big 12 championship. Playoff chances: 3 percent
18. Utah (8-2, No. 13 in AP poll): Don’t let its high ranking (it was also No. 13 in the CFP rankings last week) fool you — Utah needs to win the Big 12 to have a chance at making the playoffs. And with losses to Texas Tech and BYU, the only way the Utes have a chance is for BYU to lose to Cincinnati and get to at least a three-way tiebreaker with those teams (in which BYU beat Utah, Utah beat Cincinnati and Cincinnati beat BYU). But Houston and Arizona State also have only two conference losses, so it could get even more convoluted. Utah first has to beat Kansas and Kansas State and then hope for a lot of help and the tiebreaker to fall their way. The Utes’ best wins are over Cincinnati and Arizona State, which won’t earn an at-large berth over the other teams higher on this list. Playoff chances: 2 percent.