By the end of Saturday, either two more SEC teams will have seen their College Football Playoff hopes vanquished or the conference will have a whopping seven teams still truly alive in the playoff chase for another week.
Two other top-12 teams are on upset alert, meanwhile, a Big Ten team has its CFP hopes fully on the line and the Heisman race rages on. And, if Friday night’s wild ACC battle was any sort of tone-setter for the weekend, Saturday should be another beautiful chaotic showcase of why November in college football is hard to beat.
We already spotlighted the top five games to watch Saturday here.
Let’s break down what happened Friday night and then dive into our score predictions for Saturday.
Friday Night Rewind
A week ago, Louisville was 7-1, No. 15 in the CFP rankings and in full control of its playoff path.
Seven days later, the Cardinals are 7-3, out of the ACC race and playoff discussion entirely and with plenty of second-guessing to dwell on after a 20-19 loss at home to Clemson.
First came the overtime loss at home to Cal last week (their second OT loss this season) and then about as painful of a way to lose as possible Friday night — falling to Clemson, 20-19, after missing an extra point and two late field goals.
It was even worse than that sounds, though.
The missed extra point from Cooper Ranvier came early in the second quarter when nobody could have known how huge it would loom later. But that’s not why Louisville lost.
Flash forward to the fourth quarter.
Louisville led 19-13 when Clemson coughed up a prime opportunity to take the lead, fumbling on fourth-and-goal from the 1. Things were looking good for Jeff Brohm’s squad at that point.
But the Cardinals could barely get off their own goal line, going three-and-out with a quick punt. Quickly, Clemson was right back in another fourth-and-goal from the 1 situation, but this time Adam Randall plunged in for the go-ahead touchdown for a 20-19 Tigers lead.
Still, there was plenty of time for Louisville — and plenty of opportunity to come.
On the very next play from scrimmage, Miller Moss connected with Caullin Lacy for 48 yards to the Clemson 27. The Cardinals couldn’t get much closer, and on third-and-9 the two things they couldn’t do were turn it over or take a sack.
Moss was promptly sacked for a 6-yard loss, pushing the field goal try back to 50 yards and Ranvier missed again.
No problem, Louisville forced a quick Clemson punt, which was botched on a low snap, giving the Cardinals possession at the Tigers’ 23 with 2:31 to play. What could go wrong?!
Well …
Louisville was immediately flagged for a false start and two plays later a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Lance Robinson for shoving after the whistle — just an incredible lack of composure with its season effectively on the line.
That made it third-and-29 from the Clemson 42, but Louisville would find yet more new life on a 14-yard pass from Moss to Antonio Meeks to set up a 46-yard field goal try to win the game.
The redemption narrative was all set for Ranvier to offset his earlier missed kicks with the game-winner, but Brohm inexplicably called in Nick Keller (who had attempted three field goals all season) to take the kick. He yanked it wide right, looking like someone who had attempted only three FGs all season and probably shouldn’t be put in cold off the bench with the season on the line.
Yeesh.
Louisville got the ball back with 27 seconds left, but it couldn’t do anything with that. The Cardinals (7-3, 4-3 ACC) had only themselves (and Brohm?) to blame in the end.
Again, college football in November.
Clemson, meanwhile, improved to 5-5 and 4-4 in the ACC and now has a chance to at least finish this frustrating season by extending its 20-year streak of bowl eligibility with a win over FCS foe Furman next week (or at South Carolina the following week).
…
Meanwhile, No. 8 Oregon improved to 9-1 with a 42-13 domination of Minnesota.
Dante Moore was nearly perfect for the Ducks, completing 27-of-30 passes for 306 yards and 2 TDs.
Top-25 Schedule Saturday And Score Predictions
We successfully called Wake Forest’s upset over then-No. 14 Virginia last week and we’re on upset watch again Saturday. Here are our picks for Week 12.
(All game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)
South Carolina (3-6, 1-6 SEC) at No. 3 Texas A&M (9-0, 6-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN: The Aggies are 16.5-point favorites and have shown no let up as one of three remaining unbeaten teams in college football. Prediction: Texas A&M 41, South Carolina 28
Wisconsin (3-6, 1-5 Big Ten) at No. 2 Indiana (10-0, 7-0), 12 p.m. on Big Ten Network: Ditto for the Hoosiers, who avoided an upset scare last week at Penn State in dramatic fashion but should roll today at home. Wisconsin got its first Big Ten win of the season last week, upsetting Washington, but it won’t be able to surprise Curt Cignetti’s squad. Indiana is a 30.5-point favorite. Prediction: Indiana 33, Wisconsin 10.
No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2) at No. 22 Pittsburgh (7-2), 12 p.m. on ABC: Two of the hottest teams in college football clash with CFP hopes on the line. Notre Dame has won seven straight since an 0-2 start, while Pitt has won five in a row since turning to true freshman QB Mason Heintschel (302.2 passing yards per game in his five starts). Notre Dame is an 11.5-point favorite, but this should be a closer game than that. Prediction: Notre Dame 44, Pittsburgh 38.
No. 24 South Florida (7-2, 4-1 AAC) at Navy (7-2, 5-1), 12 p.m. on ESPN2: South Florida is pushing for the AAC title and the CFP berth that goes to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Navy started 7-0, but it was a hollow 7-0 and the Midshipmen have lost their last two. South Florida is a 2.5-point favorite, which seems light. Prediction: South Florida 48, Navy 21
Arizona (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) at No. 24 Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1), 12 p.m. on FS1: The Bearcats got humbled last time out in a 45-14 loss at Utah, but they’re coming off a bye and still in contention in the Big 12 (and thus also for a CFP berth if they can win the conference). Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Arizona 28.
No. 18 Michigan (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) at Northwestern (5-4, 3-3), 12 p.m. on FOX: The Wolverines are one of five Big Ten teams still with a shot at the playoffs, if they win out and upset Ohio State in the regular-season finale. Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: Michigan 27, Northwestern 18
No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (8-1, 6-0), 3:30 p.m. on ABC: The Crimson Tide has won eight in a row and already knocked off four ranked SEC foes. Oklahoma needs to win out to make the CFP and is looking for a second straight ranked road win after beating Tennessee two weeks ago before its bye. Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite: Prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 17
UCF (4-5, 1-5 Big 12) at No. 6 Texas Tech (9-1, 6-1), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: The Red Raiders are as dominant as any team in college football, with all nine of their wins coming by 22 points or more — including the huge 29-7 victory over BYU in a top-10 matchup last week. Texas Tech is a 23.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas Tech 51, UCF 13
NC State (5-4, 2-3) at No. 15 Miami (7-2, 3-2), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN: Miami may not even have a path to the CFP at this point without a lot of help, but it absolutely has to win out to keep any embers of hope lit. NC State actually has two wins over currently ranked teams — Virginia and Georgia Tech — so it can’t be taken too lightly. Miami is a 14.5-point favorite. Prediction: Miami 38, NC State 22
No. 16 Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1 ACC) at Boston College (1-9, 0-6), 3:30 p.m. on ACC Network: Georgia Tech got stunned by NC State for its first loss two weeks ago and had a bye last week. The Yellow Jackets still have all their goals on the table and should roll over a truly hapless Boston College team. Georgia Tech is a 16.5-point favorite. Prediction: Georgia Tech 45, Boston College 14
No. 21 Iowa (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 17 USC (7-2, 5-1), 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network: The Hawkeyes had their CFP hopes crushed in dramatic fashion last week as Oregon drove for the game-winning field goal in the final two minutes, but they can now play spoiler and deliver the same fate to the Trojans, who need to win out (vs. Iowa, at No. 8 Oregon and vs. UCLA) to earn a CFP at-large berth. USC is a 6.5-point favorite. Prediction: Iowa 28, USC 27
No. 19 Virginia (8-2, 5-1 ACC) at Duke (5-4, 4-1), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN2: Virginia was bound to stumble at some point, and after playing with fire for weeks it finally got burned last Saturday in a 16-9 loss to Wake Forest. Duke may have four losses, but it also may be the best team in the ACC at this point. Duke is a 5.5-point favorite. Prediction: Duke 28, Virginia 13
New Mexico (3-6) at No. 23 Tennessee (6-3), 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network: The Vols are the only ranked three-loss team, and they’ve done nothing to earn that except push Georgia to overtime in September. But they’re 41.5-point favorites Saturday. Prediction: Tennessee 40, New Mexico 6
Florida (3-6, 2-4 SEC) at No. 7 Ole Miss (9-1, 5-1), 7 p.m. on ESPN: Florida fans desperately want to poach coach Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss, but that becomes harder to do if the Rebels are making a deep playoff run. Ole Miss has gotten through the tough part of its schedule and closes with Florida and Mississippi State. Ole Miss is an 11.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Florida 17
No. 13 Utah (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) at Baylor (5-4, 3-3), 7 p.m. on ESPN2: The Utes don’t really have a clear path to the Big 12 championship game with Texas Tech in the driver’s seat and BYU holding a head-to-head tiebreaker even if it gets to two conference losses (not to mention Cincinnati still at one Big 12 loss), and it’s hard to see Utah getting a CFP at-large berth. But at No. 13 in the CFP rankings, the Utes are in the discussion. Baylor is a very capable team, but Utah has everything at stake in this one. Utah is a 9.5-point favorite. Prediction: Utah 39, Baylor 33
UCLA (3-6, 3-3 Big Ten) at No. 1 Ohio State (9-0, 6-0), 7:30 p.m. on NBC: UCLA QB Nico Iamaleavea is reportedly out Saturday due to a concussion. It wouldn’t have mattered either way. Ohio State is a 34.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 49, UCLA 9
No. 10 Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) at No. 5 Georgia (8-1, 6-1), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: The Longhorns have gone from preseason No. 1 to out of the rankings entirely to back in the top 10. But they have no margin for error and need to win out to have any shot at the playoffs. Georgia hasn’t been especially dominant this season — by its past standards or what is typical of a top-5 team — but the Bulldogs are home and usually find a way to get the job done. Georgia is a 4.5-point favorite. Prediction: Georgia 28, Texas 24
TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) at No. 12 BYU (8-1, 5-1), 10:15 p.m. on ESPN: Could the Cougars go from 8-0 and ranked in the top 10 to entirely out of the CFP race in the span of eight days? Well, not officially, but this is the upset pick we teased. TCU and senior QB Josh Hoover can pile up points in a hurry, and while the Cougars are solid defensively, they aren’t equipped to get in a shootout if it goes that way. BYU got humbled by Texas Tech last week, and if it loses Saturday, it could still play its way into the Big 12 championship game but that would mean a likely rematch with the Red Raiders. Meaning a loss here would put its CFP hopes in real jeopardy. BYU is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: TCU 34, BYU 28