For many teams around college football, the month of November plays as a single-elimination knockout tournament with so few teams still able to take a loss and sustain their top-end goals.
Everything that has happened to this point the last two-plus months has been to set up this full-stakes finish to the regular season, full of veritable playoff games just to jockey for a potential spot in the actual College Football Playoff next month.
Week 11 is highlighted by three spotlight showdowns between ranked conference foes along with several other games ripe with upset potential.
Those left standing get to do it all over again (and again) in the coming weeks.
Here are the five best games to watch Saturday …
(All rankings refer to the initial College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday; all game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)
No. 7 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) at No. 8 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1)
12 p.m. Saturday on ABC
The biggest remaining game on the Big 12 schedule carries big ramifications for both teams, but that’s especially true for Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have been as dominant as any team in college football and sure look like a playoff-worthy team. All eight of their wins have come by at least 23 points. There is that one blemish on their otherwise sterling resume, though — a competitive 26-22 loss at Arizona State played with starting quarterback Behren Morton sidelined by injury — and it might just be enough to throw a wrench into everything for Texas Tech if it doesn’t win out.
As wild as that sounds (surely the playoff selection committee would factor in the circumstances of that game, right?), hear us out.
If Texas Tech loses Saturday to undefeated BYU, it joins a logjam of Big 12 teams with two conference losses (Houston, Utah and Arizona State for sure, with TCU entering its game Saturday in that spot) who would all be behind the first-place Cougars and Cincinnati (just one Big 12 loss, on bye this week).
Considering the Big 12 only got one team into the 12-team playoff last year, how comfortable would Texas Tech feel with two losses if it gets shutout of the conference championship game. It also only has one win over a ranked opponent — Utah — and won’t have another opportunity for a marquee win with UCF and West Virginia remaining on the schedule.
So Texas Tech and its top-five national offense (tied for third in scoring at 43.6 points per game) and fifth in yards (492.3 per game) is playing for its season Saturday against one of the four remaining unbeaten teams in college football.
How’s that for drama!
BYU, meanwhile, can’t rest easy either. The Cougars could weather a loss here and still control their path to a Big 12 championship and automatic berth into the playoff, but in addition to Texas Tech they still have to play TCU and at Cincinnati.
True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier seems to be building confidence as the season goes — 1,693 passing yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 408 rushing yards and 9 TDs — and will need to keep it going against the toughest stretch of schedule yet.
Texas Tech is an 11.5-point favorite
Our prediction: Texas Tech, 34-28
No. 9 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) at No. 20 Iowa (6-2, 4-1)
3:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS
Oregon might have seemed destined for a return to the playoffs earlier this season when it was a top-5 team and won that dramatic overtime game at Penn State, but now the Ducks find themselves playing for their postseason life with three big obstacles to overcome in the final weeks.
That win over Penn State unfortunately doesn’t carry a ton of weight now that the Nittany Lions have been in a five-game freefall ever since. Oregon then lost its biggest game of the season, 30-20 at home to now-No. 2 Indiana and it hasn’t played another ranked team.
It will, though.
Oregon starts a gauntlet final stretch with this tough road game at No. 20 Iowa, hosts a plucky Minnesota team and then gets No. 19 USC at home and No. 23 Washington on the road.
The Ducks don’t have a clear path to the Big Ten championship game with No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana both undefeated and on a seeming collision course, but if Oregon wins out it will assure its place in the postseason nonetheless. That’s a big “if”, however. A two-loss Oregon team could still have a shot given the overall November schedule, but that would be inviting some major uncertainty into the matter.
Iowa hasn’t generated much national buzz, but the CFP selection committee held a higher opinion of the now-No. 20 Hawkeyes than the AP voters, who have continued to leave them out of the AP top 25.
Iowa is mighty tough to beat home, losing just one game at Kinnick Stadium each of the last three seasons. That includes a 20-15 loss to Indiana this year that stands as the only close game the Hoosiers have played.
The Hawkeyes need to win out, plain and simple, to have a shot at the playoffs, but they’re capable of doing so with a road game at always-vulnerable No. 19 USC next, followed by Michigan State at home and Nebraska (minus its starting QB) on the road.
Iowa, which has a top-5 national defense that ranks third in allowing 234.9 yards per game and fourth in allowing 13.1 points per game), will look to slow down and frustrate Oregon’s top-10 offense (sixth nationally at 41.3 PPG and ninth at 483.9 YPG).
Oregon is a 6.5-point favorite
Our prediction: Oregon, 28-27
No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0 SEC) at No. 22 Missouri (6-2, 2-2)
3:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Texas A&M is one of four unbeaten teams left in college football and has done everything possible to show it deserves its lofty ranking, winning at Notre Dame (41-40) in September, handling business through the weekly SEC grind and ending the Brian Kelly Era at LSU with a 49-25 road win over the Tigers two weeks ago.
But now the Aggies have to finish the job.
This road game at No. 22 Missouri and the regular-season finale at No. 11 Texas will be the toughest games Texas A&M has played since that trip to South Bend nearly two months ago. QB Marcel Reed is on the fringe of the Heisman Trophy race with 1,972 passing yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs and 349 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
Missouri’s only two losses were both competitive games with the likes of Alabama and Vanderbilt (on the road). The Tigers are having to turn to true freshman backup QB Matt Zollers with starter Beau Pribula down with a dislocated ankle, but their identity is the rushing attack led by Ahmad Hardy (third nationally at 117.13 rushing yards per game) and a defense that ranks fifth nationally in giving up 245.8 YPG.
The Tigers are playing for their season each week the rest of the month. If they pull the upset Saturday, they then need to follow with wins over Mississippi State, at No. 12 Oklahoma and at Arkansas to play their way into playoffs.
Texas A&M is a 6.5-point favorite
Our prediction: Texas A&M, 31-24
LSU (5-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (7-1, 5-0)
7:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Never count out a talented but underachieving team that just made a coaching change and had a bye week to reset itself.
That’s the situation for LSU, which plays its first game under the direction of interim head coach Frank Wilson, having spent the last two weeks trying to emphasize the culture of the program with notable alums coming back to watch practice and be around the team.
That said, Alabama is also coming off a bye and has been a freight train since losing in the season-opener to Florida State, reeling off seven straight wins (including four over ranked opponents).
The Crimson Tide is playing for it all — SEC championship, CFP berth, national title.
We’re not saying the Tide is on upset alert, but anything is possible in the SEC.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (2,184 yards, 20 TDs, 1 INT) also remains in the thick of the Heisman hunt and has a prime opportunity to further his case Saturday.
Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite
Our prediction: Alabama, 38-28.
No. 5 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4)
12 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
The records are what they are and maybe we’re reading too much into it, but Mississippi State has been far more competitive week after week than the ledge would suggest and Georgia really hasn’t looked like a top-5 team beyond pure results.
Let’s start with Georgia …
The No. 5-ranked Bulldogs have a signature top-10 win over Ole Miss. Otherwise, they needed overtime to beat a very beatable Tennessee team, lost at home to Alabama, were a whisker away from being down 17-0 late in the second quarter at Auburn before a goal line fumble swung the momentum on the way to a 20-10 win, and then they trailed in the fourth quarter at Florida last week before winning 24-20.
Meanwhile, the other Bulldogs, the ones from Starkville, Mississippi, started 4-0 with a non-conference win over then-No. 12 Arizona State and just haven’t been able to finish out conference games. But they also went to overtime with Tennessee (41-34 loss), lost 23-21 at Florida, took Texas to overtime (45-38 loss) and then beat Arkansas 38-35.
Again, we’re not saying there is an upset brewing in Starkville on Saturday, but if Georgia is going to be portrayed as a national contender it would be nice to see it assert itself on the road.
Georgia is a 9.5-point favorite
Our prediction: Georgia, 37-34
Friday Night Takeaways
USC stays in the playoff hunt with a 38-17 win over Northwestern
Don’t count out Lincoln Riley’s Trojans yet.
No. 19 USC piled up 482 yards to Northwestern’s 280 in the kind of performance that will give stoke Trojans fans’ hopes for a playoff push.
Jayden Maiava passed for 299 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT and delivered what will surely be one of the highlights of the week when he chased down defensive lineman Najee Story after that interception and forced a fumble before the goal line, turning a would-be pick-6 into a fumble through the back of the end zone and touchback.
It was a 14-14 game late in the second quarter at that point, and all the momentum went in the Trojans’ favor from there.
Makai Lemon had 11 receptions for 161 yards and a TD, Ja’Kobi Lane had 7 catches for 74 yards and a TD (see the phenomenal catch below) and walk-on running back King Miller rushed for 127 yards and a TD on 15 carries.
The Trojans are now 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big Ten. Again, it sure seems like Ohio State and Indiana are going to collide in the conference championship game, but there’s room for a third and maybe fourth Big Ten team in the CFP.
USC has huge games the next two weeks against No. 20 Iowa and at No. 9 Oregon before closing at home vs. rival UCLA. That’s a three-game schedule to play its way into a potential playoff breakthrough in Riley’s fourth year.
Tulane moves into strong position in AAC race with CFP berth in sight
The highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion gets a berth in the CFP field, and that looks likely to be the winner of the highly-competitive AAC race.
Tulane took a huge step toward being that team with a 38-32 win at Memphis on Friday night.
The Green Wave (7-2, 4-1 AAC) and Tigers (8-2, 4-2) were among the top contenders in the conference along with the likes of North Texas (8-1, 5-1, on bye this week), South Florida (7-2, 4-1 after a 55-23 win over UTSA on Thursday), Navy (7-1, 5-1 entering a non-conference game at Notre Dame on Saturday) and East Carolina (5-3, 3-1 entering a home game vs. Charlotte).
Memphis now falls out of the race for all intents and purposes while Tulane bounced back in a big way after a stunning 48-26 loss to UTSA last week.
Jake Retzlaff led the Green Wave on Friday night, passing for 332 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INT while rushing for 43 yards and a score.
Rounding Out The Top 25 Schedule Saturday
No. 2 Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at Penn State (3-5, 0-5), 12 p.m. on Fox: The Hoosiers have shown no let-up while proving to the college football world that they are indeed no fluke. Look for Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza (2,124 passing yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 4 rushing TDs) to lead Indiana (a 13.5-point favorite) to another comfortable win over the reeling Nittany Lions. Prediction: Indiana, 44-17.
No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) at Purdue (2-7, 0-6), 1 p.m. on Big Ten Network: Ohio State QB Julian Sayin has taken the lead in the Heisman race with 2,188 passing yards, 23 TDs and 3 INTs (none in Big Ten play) while leading all FBS QBs with an 80.7% completion rate. The Buckeyes are 29.5-point favorites. Prediction: Ohio State, 51-9.
The Citadel (4-5) at No. 6 Ole Miss (8-1), 1 p.m. on SEC Network: The Rebels get a reprieve before closing the schedule vs. Florida and at Mississippi State with their hardest tests behind them. Ole Miss is a 51.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ole Miss, 45-3.
Syracuse (3-6, 1-5 ACC) at No. 18 Miami (6-2, 2-2), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN: The Hurricanes dealt a major blow to their playoff hopes with that loss to SMU last week. They don’t have a path to the ACC championship game and will need a ton of help to have a chance at a CFP at-large berth. Miami is a 28.5-point favorite. Prediction: Miami, 36-13.
Auburn (4-5, 1-5 SEC) at No. 16 Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2), 4 p.m. on SEC Network: Auburn plays its first game since coach Hugh Freeze was fired, while Vanderbilt looks to bounce back from its loss at Texas and stay in the CFP hunt. The Commodores are a 6.5-point favorite. Prediction: Vanderbilt, 24-14.
No. 23 Washington (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) at Wisconsin (2-6, 0-5), 4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network: Washington is a dark horse playoff candidate with a big opportunity still to come in the regular-season finale vs. No. 9 Oregon — if the Huskies can handle business until then. Washington is a 10.5- point favorite. Prediction: Washington, 33-17.
Wake Forest (5-3, 2-3 ACC) at No. 14 Virginia (8-0, 5-0), 7 p.m. on ESPN: The Cavaliers look like the most vulnerable of any team ranked inside the top 15. They had the back-to-back overtime wins over Florida State (which no longer resonates the same) and Louisville, but they barely beat Washington State 22-0, needed overtime to get past North Carolina (17-16) and were clinging to a 3-point lead at Cal before a pick-6 made it a 31-21 win last week. Wake Forest isn’t great, but it did upset SMU (13-12) two weeks ago. It seems likely Virginia stumbles at some point. Virginia is a 6.5-point favorite. Prediction: Wake Forest, 28-24.
Cal (5-4, 2-3 ACC) at No. 15 Louisville (7-1, 4-1), 7 p.m. Saturday on ESPN2: The Cardinals might be the most underrated team in college football. Their only loss came in a coin-flip overtime game vs. Virginia, they had the upset over then-No. 2 Miami and also a nice win over Pitt. Cal is a capable opponent, but it struggles to close out games. Louisville is a 17.5-point favorite. Prediction: Louisville, 34-24.
Navy (7-1) at No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2), 7:30 p.m. on NBC/Peacock: Navy took its first loss last week, 31-17 at North Texas. The Midshipmen are having a nice season, but they really haven’t beaten anyone. Their best win might be … at Temple? But that triple-option offense can frustrate any opponent. Notre Dame has won six straight and should keep rolling. The Fighting Irish are a 27.5-point favorite. Prediction: Notre Dame, 49-21.