After Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State combined for the national championship in nine of the 11 title games of the College Football Playoff era so far, the sport is at least assured a fresh storyline no matter the outcome Monday night between Indiana and Miami.
Either the No. 1-ranked, undefeated Hoosiers complete the most incredible story in college football history with their first-ever national title, or Miami and its storied program shakes off two decades of disappointment and punctuates its long-awaited comeback with its first national championship in 24 years.
We went MUCH deeper on those storylines and the stakes of this showdown here.
But let’s focus more on matchup-related matters and what to know ahead of kickoff, which is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Home Field Advantage In The Championship?
Miami is the first FBS team to ever play a national championship game in its home stadium, timing its resurgence well with Hard Rock Stadium’s (Miami Gardens, Florida) turn in the regular rotation of usual playoff sites.
There have been pseudo national title home games before, though.
In fact, eight other teams have played for the national championship in their home state, with the most recent being LSU winning it all six years ago at the Superdome in New Orleans.
Overall, though, those teams have gone just 4-4 despite the perceived geographical advantage.
But this is certainly different as the actual field and stadium the Hurricanes call home.
“It’s hard to say. We’re in different uniforms and we’re on the other side. It still matters,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said. “It’s still 120 yards long and 53 wide, and I expect what we all expect. We’re home, and we expect home to show as strongly as humanly possible and make it as much of our atmosphere as possible.”
Indiana turned Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium into a veritable home field advantage in its semifinals win over Oregon, with Hoosiers fans filling the overwhelming majority of seats, but that may be hard to replicate in this case.
“I’m not sure it’s a motivator. It is what it is; it’s factual. This is where Miami plays their home football games, and we’re playing a game against them with a lot on the line. That’s it, plain and simple,” Cignetti said.
Defensive Duel?
Miami and Indiana were two of the top defensive teams in college football this season, and that’s carried over into the postseason.
Overall, including the CFP games, Indiana ranks second nationally in scoring defense (11.1 points per game allowed) and fourth in total defense (260.9 yards per game allowed). Miami ranks fifth in allowing 14.0 PPG and 11th in total defense (292.6 YPG).
Both are especially hard to run against, with Indiana ranking second in allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and Miami sixth at 86.47.
Both also rank top-6 in sacks per game — with Miami 4th at 3.13 and Indiana tied for sixth at 3.0 but also second nationally in tackles for loss (8.53 per game) — and top 10 in total takeaways as the Hoosiers are third with 29 (18 INTS and 11 fumbles) with Miami tied for ninth at 25 (16 INTs, 9 fumbles).
Miami stifled high-scoring Texas A&M to season-lows of 326 yards and 3 points and held Ohio State to a modest 332 yards and 14 points before Ole Miss broke through a bit for 398 yards in the Hurricanes’ 31-27 semifinal win.
Indiana, meanwhile, was even more dominant defensively against the Buckeyes, holding them to 322 yards and a season-low 10 points in a 13-10 Big Ten championship game win.
The Hoosiers then totally bullied Alabama while allowing just 193 yards in a 38-3 CFP quarterfinals win and led Oregon 42-7 midway through the third quarter before letting the Ducks tack on some points after the eventual 56-22 win was in hand.
Miami is led by star power with edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. (8.5 sacks, 13.5 TFLs, 1 FF) and Akheem Mesidor (10.5 sacks, 15.5 TFLs, 4 FFs) projected first-round NFL draft picks, and big playmakers in the secondary in S Jakobe Thomas (70 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 5 INTs, 6 pass breakups and 2 FF) and CB Keionte Scott (61 tackles, 5 sacks, 13 TFLs, 2 INTs, 5 PBUs, 2 FF — with a pick-6 vs. Ohio State).
Indiana gets it done in the front seven with a collective effort led by a pair of third-team AP All-America selections in DT Tyrique Tucker (6 sacks, 12 TFLs) and LB Aiden Fisher (93 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs, 2 INTs, 1 FF), while also boasting a pair of second-team AP All-America selections in the secondary in CB D’Angelo Ponds (56 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 INTs, 7 PBUs and a FF — with a pick-6 vs. Oregon) and S Louis Moore (81 tackles, 6 INTs, 2 PBUs, 2.5 TFL).
The over-under for the game is set at 46.5 points, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Offensive Keys For Both Teams
This game could hinge on which team makes the fewer mistakes and plays the most efficiently offensively.
In that case, it would be mighty hard to pick against the Hoosiers and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, who is the definition of efficiency and ball security while throwing for 8 TDs, 0 INTs and just 5 incompletions over his first two playoff games. Mendoza completed 31 of 36 passes in those wins while surgically dismantling Alabama and Oregon.
On the other side, Carson Beck has to match that level of decision-making and execution. He tossed 6 INTs over the Hurricanes two mid-season losses but then tightened up to post 11 TDs with just 1 INT over the final four regular-season games and so far 4 TDs to 1 INT (plus a rushing TD) over three playoff games.
Indiana will likely take its shots downfield given Mendoza’s elite ball placement and a supremely reliable set of receivers, led by Elijah Sarratt (62 catches for 802 yards and 15 TDs despite missing a month with injury), Omar Cooper Jr. (64-866-13) and emerging sophomore Charlie Becker (30-614-4). All three have scored a TD in each of the two playoff wins so far.
The Hoosiers have a capable tandem at RB in Roman Hemby (1,060 rushing yards and 7 TDs) and Kaelon Black (961-10) if they can establish the ground game, but Miami held 10 of its 15 opponents under 100 yards, including limiting mighty Ohio State to just 45 rushing yards.
Most likely, Indiana is going to need Mendoza and those receivers to hit on some big plays to open things up while avoiding turnovers and playing their typically sound and disciplined style.
Miami will surely try to take as much pressure off Beck as possible and see if running back Mark Fletcher Jr. can continue his prolific postseason after rushing for 395 yards on 6.8 YPC through three playoff games.
The X-factor as always, though, is freshman phenom do-everything receiver Malachi Toney (99 catches for 1,089 yards and 9 TDs, 113 rushing yards and a TD and two passing TDs). He is capable of being the ultimate equalizer at any time no matter how the game is going.
Injuries And Other Championship Roster Notes
Miami will be without CB Xavier Lucas (45 tackles, 1 INT, team-high 8 PBUs, 1 FF) for the first half as part of his penalty for a targeting violation last game while fellow CB Damari Brown (24 tackles, 1 PBU) is a game-time decision with the foot injury that has sidelined him since the final regular-season game.
But DT Ahmad Moten is considered good to go after battling through an ankle injury.
There are no fresh injury concerns for Indiana.
Prediction
Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite as of 5 p.m. ET, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indiana 34, Miami 26
The last two rounds of the playoffs have set up the possibility that Indiana is simply a historically good team in the midst of an all-time postseason. Given how reliable the Hoosiers have been in their discipline and execution really all season, it’s simply hard to imagine that changing now.
Both teams have elite defenses, but Indiana is the better offensive team with the quarterback who makes less mistakes and more big-time throws.
Miami will need its elite pass rush to cause havoc and truly disrupt Mendoza, which is possible, or for the unflappable QB to make uncharacteristic mistakes.
Otherwise, we see the Hoosiers completing their remarkable run with a fitting final chapter and their first national title.
