Four main questions hovered in the air leading into the CFP committee’s final rankings release Tuesday ahead of the selection show Sunday that will ultimately reveal the 12-team bracket.
First, how would the committee adjust — if at all — Ole Miss, given coach Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU and defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking over as head coach for the College Football Playoff (and beyond)?
Second, would there be any change in the committee’s stance to not treat 10-2 Miami’s head-to-head win over 10-2 Notre Dame as a differentiator?
Third, how far would Texas A&M tumble after its first loss of the season?
And, fourth, related to that how high would Texas climb after that 27-17 win over the previously unbeaten Aggies?
To work backward, 11-1 Texas A&M dropped four spots to No. 7, behind fellow 11-1 teams No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 5 Oregon and No. 6 Ole Miss (spoiler), while Texas moved up three spots to No. 13 but still on the outside looking in on the 12-team CFP bracket.
Miami stayed at No. 12, but closed the gap another spot with No. 10 Notre Dame, which got usurped by 10-2 Alabama at No. 9. (It’s a curious move one could speculate is based on more than last weekend’s results, as the Crimson Tide were tied late in the fourth quarter with five-win Auburn before winning 27-20, while Notre Dame blew out Stanford 49-20 on the road.)
CFP chair Hunter Yurachek expounded on the matter during his appearance on ESPN on Tuesday night.
“The debate between Alabama and Notre Dame over the past three weeks has been one of the strongest debates we’ve had in the room for the past two years that I’ve been a member of the committee,” Yurachek said. “I think this week as we looked at those two teams and how closely they have been over the past three weeks, Notre Dame went on the road, had a strong win at Stanford, but Alabama went on the road in a rivalry game, looked really good especially in the first half getting up 17-0, ran the ball well, Auburn came back at them, they had a great gutsy call on fourth-and-2 late in the [game] to get a touchdown and then got the turnover late in the game. And I think that was enough to change the minds of a couple of committee members to push Alabama up ahead of Notre Dame in this week’s rankings.”
(More on this in a bit)
And as revealed above, Ole Miss actually didn’t get dinged at all for Kiffin’s departure, as many expected. In fact, the Rebels moved up a spot thanks to the Aggies’ loss.
So what does it all mean? Well, that’s why we’re here …
Which Teams Are Definitely In?
Easy question.
Both No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) and No. 2 Indiana (12-0) are in regardless of what happens in their much-anticipated Big Ten championship showdown this week.
No. 3 Georgia (11-1) is in regardless of its outcome vs. Alabama in the SEC championship game this week, though seeding would be an interesting question if the Bulldogs lose for a second time to the Crimson Tide.
We’ll dial down the confidence meter just a notch here, but No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1) has to be in regardless of its Big 12 championship game result with BYU. Even putting aside that the Red Raiders are 12.5-point favorites (per ESPN Bet) this week and likely to make this entire paragraph moot, they also won the first meeting between the teams 29-7. So even a split would be hard to hold against them. Their only loss came by four points on the road at Arizona State with starting QB Behren Morton sidelined by injury, and they won every other game by at least 22 points. Texas Tech is a CFP team.
No. 5 Oregon (11-1) isn’t in the Big Ten championship game and is locked in as a one-loss surefire at-large team.
No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) is clearly in. The committee didn’t pull a 2023 Florida State on the Rebels in this rankings update by penalizing them to a significant late personnel change, and they don’t play this week, so nothing can knock them out of the playoffs at this point.
No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1) is also safe. It was one of the three final unbeaten teams in the country, took its first loss on the road against a ranked Texas team, and has a win over playoff hopeful Notre Dame.
The AAC champion, to be decided Friday between 11-1 North Texas and 10-2 Tulane, will claim an automatic berth.
So that’s eight of 12 CFP spots already set.
What Other Teams Are In Play For The CFP?
A ninth spot will go to either No. 17 Virginia (10-2) if it beats Duke in the ACC championship game or … likely No. 25 James Madison (11-1) if 7-5 Duke wins the ACC and the Dukes (JMU, stay with us) win the Sun Belt.
It’s a doomsday scenario for the ACC where its conference champion doesn’t even make the playoffs because the automatic berths go to the five highest-ranked conference champions, meaning two Group of Five teams could get in if the Blue Devils win.
(If Duke wins and James Madison loses to 8-4 Troy, then … let’s table this unless it happens as JMU is a 23.5-point favorite.)
No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2) — with wins over Alabama and Michigan and losses to Texas and Ole Miss — would seem to be strongly positioned for one of the three remaining spots, but this where we have to factor in the unpredictability element to the proceedings.
The CFP committee isn’t actually beholden to its own rankings and could take a fresh evaluation before Sunday (more on this in a general sense momentarily).
There’s already banter about the Sooners’ meager offense (T-78th in scoring at 26.4 points per game, 91st in total offense at 353.7 yards per game) being the weakest unit of any playoff hopeful, and their decisive 23-6 loss to Texas could get a fresh look.
No. 9 Alabama (10-2) is in automatically with another win over Georgia in the rematch this week in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide won the first meeting 24-21 in Athens. The question is could the Tide make it at 10-3 if they lose and have a season split with the Bulldogs? The fact the committee moved Alabama up a spot this week is highly curious and almost seems to be laying the groundwork for the Tide to have some separation from other bubble teams if it loses.
But Yurachek said that scenario did not factor into Alabama’s move up the rankings.
“It did not. We will evaluate the results of the championship games after they are all completed over the weekend,” he said.
That potential debate will hinge on how championship game losses should be evaluated as Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma will be presumably benefitting by not having to play in the SEC title game, and ditto for Oregon in the Big Ten.
No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2) has been projected to make it for a while now, but the fact it’s just two ranking slots separated from No. 12 Miami (10-2) and has the head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes makes this the most controversial CFP matter entering the weekend — especially if it comes down to those two teams and Texas for the final spot.
The difference to this point has been that Notre Dame’s losses came to ranked Miami and Texas A&M while Miami’s losses came to unranked Louisville and SMU. But that carried more weight when the two teams were ranked further apart overall. Now they’re 10/12 and ignoring that head-to-head result is a tougher sell for the CFP committee.
Yurachek’s comments when asked if that ordering was set in stone left the door wide open for a reevaluation still to come (and applies to the Oklahoma matter as well).
“Indeed, idle teams can move following the results of the championship games and how they impact the teams that are around those that play in the championship game and data such as strength of schedule,” Yurachek said. “So, yes, teams that are idle can move up or down.”
No. 11 BYU (11-1) can play its way onto the bracket simply by winning the Big 12 championship game vs. Texas Tech, which is the last thing any bubble team wants to see happen. As noted, it would be surprising if that result could knock Texas Tech entirely off the bracket, so there would then be two Big 12 teams making it and one less from the group of Oklahoma/Notre Dame/Miami/Texas/Alabama if it loses the SEC title game.
And then there’s the complicated Texas case. The No. 13 Longhorns (9-3) have beaten fellow playoff hopefuls Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt and lost to No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgia. Thus, playing one of the toughest schedules in college football.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian (and others) have argued the 14-7 loss to the Buckeyes in Week 1 shouldn’t hurt Texas because it could have just scheduled an easy win that week instead. But it’s actually the loss to 4-8 Florida that is the complicating factor here. It’s by far the worst loss of any playoff contender, and no three-loss team earned an at-large berth last year.
Those are really the only teams that have a viable shot. No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2) is ranked behind the other bubble teams with no further data points — to use the committee’s favorite word — coming.
So to summarize, there are three spots for Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, Texas and BYU.
Oklahoma and Notre Dame seem to have the best shots for at-large berths, Alabama has the best chance to claim an automatic berth, BYU controls its fate as well but is a steep underdog, and Miami and Texas are left hoping the committee reevaluates its current perspective on them. They’ll also be rooting for Alabama and BYU to lose.
