Nearly at the midpoint of the college football season, it’s a good time to reset and take a fresh look at the Heisman Trophy race — one that now looks nothing like it did when the preseason odds were set with the likes of Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier topping the list.
(Whoops!)
In the updated odds, per BetMGM, Nussmeier is clinging to the bottom of the list while the others are, of course, well off the radar by now.
In their place, the leaders are Oregon QB Dante Moore and Miami QB Carson Beck, both at +500, followed by Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith at +700, Alabama QB Ty Simpson at +800, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza at +1300, and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss at +1500.
That’s a fine list, but let’s break it down further …
Buying
Dante Moore: One can make a strong case that No. 3-ranked Oregon is the best team in the country, and the Ducks don’t face many major obstacles the rest of the way after already winning one marquee matchup — the 30-24 double-overtime thriller at Penn State two weeks ago. They do get No. 7 Indiana this week, but it’s at home in Autzen Stadium. That could be a prime statement game for Moore if he and the Ducks can get past the high-scoring Hoosiers. After that, presently unranked Iowa (it’s always tough to play on the road in Iowa City), USC (at home) and Washington (on the road) are the toughest remaining games. So far, Moore has 1,210 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 1 interception while completing 74.6 percent of his passes. He helped his case with 248 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in that spotlight win over Penn State. Even with one loss the rest of the way, the path is easy to see Moore become the Ducks’ second-ever Heisman winner (after Marcus Mariota).
Carson Beck: The Carson Beck Reclamation Tour got a big boost Saturday as he completed 20 of 27 passes for 241 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions to lead No. 3 Miami to a 28-22 win over then-No. 18 Florida State. The Georgia transfer has 1,213 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 picks (plus a rushing TD). We slot him just below Moore because he was rather pedestrian in Miami’s win over Florida (160 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) and tossed two picks in a win over South Florida. But the Hurricanes, now up to No. 2 in the AP poll, don’t have another opponent on their schedule that is currently ranked (until potentially the ACC championship game). So if coach Mario Cristobal can avoid the letdown games that have too often undercut his teams, Beck should have as strong a Heisman case as anyone come December.
Ty Simpson: Simpson is gaining momentum by the week in his first year as Alabama’s starting quarterback. He has 1,478 passing yards, 13 TDs and 1 INT (plus 2 rushing TDs) while excelling in back-to-back big wins on the road at Georgia and home vs. Vanderbilt to get the No. 8-ranked Crimson Tide back into the top 10. Simpson did throw his first pick of the season vs. the Commodores, but he completed 23 of 31 passes for 340 yards and 2 TDs. What will either work in his favor — or to his detriment, depending on results — is that he has the most spotlight opportunities left to continue making statements to the Heisman voters. Alabama still has No. 14 Missouri, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 11 LSU, No. 6 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl with Auburn among its remaining games.
Trinidad Chambliss: At those odds, Chambliss is a worthy investment. He might be the best story in college football so far, coming out of nowhere as a transfer from Division II Ferris State, opening the season as Ole Miss’ backup to Austin Simmons and then taking the reins when Simmons went down with injury. It sure seems like Chambliss has Wally Pipp’d Simmons now after three straight games of 300+ yards passing, 60+ rushing yards in each of those games and three wins. Overall, he’s up to 1,033 passing yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT with 266 rushing yards and 2 TDs, including 385 combined yards in the win over LSU. Ole Miss (5-0) is up to No. 4 in the rankings and if the Rebels keep that going there is going to be a lot of momentum for the Chambliss narrative.
Wait and see
Fernando Mendoza: The Indiana quarterback (and Cal transfer) is in a prime position while leading one of the best offenses in the country. He has 1,208 passing yards, 16 TDs and 1 INT (with 2 rushing TDs) while completing a career-high 73 percent of his passes. His 267 passing yards and 5 TDs in Indiana’s 63-10 whipping of a then-No. 9 Illinois team shines brightly, but his candidacy may hinge on what he and the Hoosiers do this week at Oregon. If Mendoza leads Indiana to an upset of the Ducks, in a raucous road environment against a strong defense, then he is going to move further up this list. If not, it may be hard to see a path to the top with a road trip to Penn State the only other marquee game on the rest of the Hoosiers’ schedule.
Not buying
Jeremiah Smith: We’re not disputing that Smith may be the best wide receiver in college football. But for a wide receiver to win the Heisman he has to have otherworldly numbers, and Smith’s stats are actually down a tick from his incredible freshman season (from 17.3 yards per reception to 13.2). He has 35 catches for 463 yards and 6 TDs (plus a rushing score), but both of his 100-yard-plus games so far came against FCS and Group of Five opponents. He hasn’t topped 81 yards against a Power Four foe yet and was held to just 6 catches for 43 yards vs. Texas.
Julian Sayin: Smith’s teammate is one of the more impressive quarterbacks in this country, no disputing that. A first-year starter, he’s completed 80.2 percent of his passes for 1,313 yards, 13 TDs and 3 INTs. But there’s no statement game on his resume, Ohio State’s defense is getting the most attention at this point for the No. 1 Buckeyes and Smith will take away potential votes from him.
Dark horse candidates to monitor
Marcel Reed: The dual-threat Texas A&M quarterback has the Aggies 5-0 and ranked 5th in the AP poll while leading one of the more entertaining offenses in the country. He has 1,256 passing yards, 11 TDs and 3 INTs and 149 rushing yards with 2 TDs. That includes 397 combined yards and 2 TDs in the Aggies’ big win over Notre Dame. Can Texas A&M keep it going? That’s the question. If it does, Reed should move up the odds list from his current +2000.
Jayden Maiava: The USC quarterback may be the best QB few are talking about nationally. He’s passed for 1,587 yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT and rushed for 4 scores for the 4-1 Trojans. USC’s only loss came on a last-second Illinois field goal in a 34-32 defeat on the road in which the Trojans were down two starting offensive linemen and their best defensive back. Even still, Maiava passed for 364 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT while rallying the Trojans back from a 14-point second-half deficit to take the lead in the final minutes. The question remains whether USC will win enough games to give Maiava a true shot at the trophy, but no coach in college football is better at producing Heisman winners than Lincoln Riley, who already has three to his credit. USC gets a big test at home this week against No. 15 Michigan. If Maiava leads the Trojans to a win, look for his Heisman odds to shoot up from their current standing at +3000.
Behren Morton: Texas Tech has one of the most potent offenses in college football, ranking first nationally in total offense at 568.8 yards per game and second in scoring at 48.6 points per game. The No. 9 Red Raiders (5-0) have won every game by at least 24 points. And Morton is on his way to a career year with 1,410 passing yards, 12 TDs and 3 INTs. He was rather quiet with just 142 yards passing and 2 interceptions in a 34-10 win over Utah, but he bounced back in a big way this past weekend with 345 yards and a touchdown in a 35-11 win over previously-unbeaten Houston. His odds are presently at +4000.