Score predictions and thoughts on every top 25 matchup on the Week 11 college football schedule.
For all the outrage the weekly College Football Playoff rankings have elicited the last two weeks — and will continue to cause with each update — they’re largely moot at the moment.
What about this college football season has stuck to any expected or logical script?
The top 10 (including the top 5) gets shook up and reset every week. Momentous wins are followed by stunning losses. Key injuries have undercut expected top contenders like Oregon, Ohio State and now perhaps Miami with star wide receiver Malachi Toney out for the rest of the regular season.
All we know for sure is that the top 12 (well, top 11 plus the top Group of 6 team) is going to change dramatically between now and when the playoff bracket is set.
So, be confounded how an undefeated Big Ten team (No. 4 UCLA) is ranked behind a two-loss SEC team (No. 3 Alabama) while another two-loss SEC team (No. 8 Tennessee) is five spots lower than the Crimson Tide team it beat head-to-head 26-10.
Be apoplectic that Miami fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after taking its first loss of the season (in its first game without Toney). Or that one-loss teams from the Big 12 (No. 12 Texas Tech) and ACC (No. 13 Wake Forest) are presently on the outside of the playoff cutline.
But it’s kind of pointless at the moment.
Because all of those teams have three more games to play and, rest assured, they won’t all go as expected. Also, the CFP selection committee showed last year that it holds the right to totally abandon its own rankings and re-do them in the end, like it did with Miami leapfrogging Notre Dame based on no new data when it actually mattered last year.
While the rankings as they currently stand don’t matter as much as everybody wants them to, the remaining games sure do.
Week 11 will change the narrative further, and while it’s perilous to have any expectations for how it will all unfold, what fun is accepting that reality?
So of course we have score predictions for every top 25 game!
College Football Week 11 Top 25 Matchups
(CFP rankings used; all game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Friday
Illinois (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 4 UCLA (9-0, 6-0), 9 p.m. on FOX: Only two undefeated teams remain! UCLA lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava a month ago but has continued to roll right along with backup Ty Dieffenbach. After two years on the bench at Pittsburgh, Dieffenbach played for FCS-level Cal Poly last season and now he’s in the thick of the CFP chase, coming off the best game of his career (303 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT in a win over Minnesota). The identity of this UCLA team hasn’t changed, though. It starts with a rushing attack that ranks 14th nationally at 213.22 yards per game, led by Wayne Knight (789 rushing yards and 13 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry). Illinois has won four straight games after a 2-3 start, while making a change at defensive coordinator four games into the season. That defense has allowed just 13.3 points per game over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, UCLA has given up 14.1 PPG for the season (8th-best nationally), so this shapes up as a potentially low-scoring battle that will likely hinge on the play of Fighting Illini QB Katin Houser (1,955 yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs) with Aidan Laughery (615 yards and 2 TDs on 6.2 YPC) leading the rushing attack. UCLA is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: UCLA 24, Illinois 22
No. 14 Houston (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) at Colorado (3-6, 1-5), 10:15 p.m. on ESPN: Colorado has lost six of its last seven games, including five by double digits. Isaac Wilson hasn’t been the savior at QB the Buffaloes hoped for when installing him as the starter a month and a half ago, passing for 1,412 yards, 8 TDs and 8 INTs. The passing attack has potential, though, with veteran receiver Joseph Williams (58 catches for 853 yards and 6 TDs) having his best season yet. Houston’s only losses came to a ranked one-loss team in Texas Tech and unbeaten Utah. The Cougars should handle business Friday night, led by impressive senior QB Conner Weigman (2,280 yards, 22 TDs, 2 INTs). Houston is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: Houston 41, Colorado 24
Saturday
Duke (7-2, 4-2 ACC) at No. 7 Miami (8-1, 6-0), 12 p.m. on ABC: Miami’s perfect start to the season ended with a 31-24 loss at Notre Dame (after falling behind 24-3) in its first game without Toney, its injured star playmaker. Without his top target, Darian Mensah nonetheless passed for 269 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT with Elija Lofton (7 catches for 113 yards and a TD) and Cooper Barkate (9-75-2) having big games. The Hurricanes — tops in the country at 45.0 PPG for the season — are still plenty capable of winning the rest of their games while awaiting Toney’s return for the postseason. But Duke is the toughest of those remaining obstacles for Miami, so this game will tell a lot. The Blue Devils might be the best unranked team in college football, led by one of the very best running backs in the FBS in sophomore Nate Sheppard (second nationally with 1,189 rushing yards, 306 receiving yards and 21 total TDs). The question is whether QB Walker Eget (1,849 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs) can do enough in the passing game to make the Miami defense respect it and not sellout to stop Sheppard. Miami is a 13.5-point favorite. Prediction: Miami 31, Duke 24
No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1, 5-1 ACC) at SMU (7-2, 5-2), 12 p.m. on ESPN/Disney+: Wake Forest is the lowest-ranked one-loss Power 4 team and has every right to feel disrespected by that. The Demon Deacons’ lone loss came against full-strength Miami, and they’ve won each of their last five games by at least 24 points and an average of 46.6 (albeit skewed by a 77-0 win over FCS-level Merrimack last week). The bottom line — this is a really good football team. QB Gio Lopez missed that blowout win last week due to a lower leg/knee injury, but that was mostly as a precaution and he’s good to go for Saturday. Wake Forest has launched a Heisman campaign for Lopez, who has passed for 2,176 yards, 18 TDs and 1 INT and rushed for 317 yards and 6 TDs. Carlos Hernandez, meanwhile, has been one of the top WRs in the country with 61 catches for 945 yards and 7 TDs and freshman Jack Foley has come on strong with a 28-557-4 line in just six games. All told, Wake Forest ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 43.3 PPG and ninth in total offense (487.7 YPG). SMU isn’t far behind, though. The Mustangs rank 11th in total offense (475.8 YPG) and 19th in scoring (37.0 PPG) with veteran QB Kevin Jennings (2,764 yards, 25 TDs, 6 INTs) fifth nationally in passing yards. SMU has a balanced offensive attack with Kendrick Raphael rushing for 755 yards and 10 TDs on 5.0 YPC. So this shapes up as a high-scoring shootout as both teams have their ACC title (and playoff) hopes at stake. SMU is a 1.5-point favorite. Prediction: Wake Forest 44, SMU 41
Northwestern (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) at No. 20 Ohio State (6-3, 4-2), 12 p.m. on FOX: There may be nothing Ohio State can do at this point to climb back into the playoff picture (without a lot of help), but to have any chance the Buckeyes need to not just win but win with style points and show that freshman QB Luke Fahey is settling in after losing his first two starts in place of injured Julian Sayin. Fahey has thrown for 620 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT in those losses to USC and Oregon. Jeremiah Smith’s overall numbers are still outstanding (69-1,200-14), but he’s lost some ground in the Heisman Trophy chase since Sayin went down. This is a much different matchup on both sides than it would have been a few weeks ago. Northwestern was 6-1 with only a narrow loss to Indiana before losing the last two weeks against Oregon and Iowa, while QB Aidan Chiles will miss a second straight game with an upper body injury and no set timeline for return. Backup Nicco Marchiol, the former West Virginia QB, threw for just 181 yards and 1 TD (with 52 rushing yards) in the loss to Iowa. Northwestern’s offense will rely heavily on RBs Caleb Komolafe (643 yards and 5 TDs on 5.8 YPC) and Joseph Himon II (411 yards and 3 TDs on 8.4 YPC). Ohio State is a 14-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 36, Northwestern 17
No. 3 Alabama (7-2, 5-2 SEC) at Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5), 12:45 p.m. on SEC Network: ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports that Alabama will hold starting QB Keelon Russell (ankle injury) out as a precaution with Austin Mack making his first start. Russell is available if needed. Mack, a senior, has thrown just 4 passes this season and 39 in his college career. That will be an interesting situation to monitor if the Crimson Tide falls behind in the game. Vanderbilt hasn’t been very good this season while transitioning to five-star freshman QB Jared Curtis (1,657 passing yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs). The Commodores also have one of the worst rushing offenses in the FBS (123rd nationally at 112.1 YPG). There’s a reason Alabama’s coaches think they can get by this week without Russell. The Crimson Tide is a 14-point road favorite. Prediction: Alabama 27, Vanderbilt 14
No. 8 Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at Texas A&M (4-5, 1-5), 3 p.m. on ESPN: Tennessee added another signature win to its playoff resume last week in beating then-No. 7 Kentucky, 34-6. The Vols control their own destiny to the postseason with final games against the disappointing Aggies, a tough test vs. LSU and then a finale vs. Vanderbilt. The Vols will need to lean even more heavily on star RB DeSean Bishop (1,066 yards and 13 TDs on 5.4 YPC) after RB2 Daune Morris sustained a season-ending leg injury in a car accident Friday. Texas A&M’s only SEC win is over Arkansas. WR Mario Craver is listed as questionable. Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite. Prediction: Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 20
No. 18 USC (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 9 Indiana (8-1, 5-1), 3:30 p.m. on CBS: If USC is going to finally break through to the playoffs for the first time, in coach Lincoln Riley’s fifth season, it has to win out. So the Trojans are playing for their season Saturday in Bloomington. Indiana could be as well, though with only one loss the Hoosiers may have some leeway. USC is coming off a bye after its momentous win over Ohio State and will need QB Jayden Maiava (2,524 yards, 20 TDs and 5 INTs) at his best in this one. The Hoosiers, also coming off a bye, haven’t named a starting QB. Josh Hoover was replaced in the last game by Grant Wilson due to a combination of injury and seemingly also ineffectiveness. Wilson completed 9 of 17 passes for 156 yards and a TD in that overtime win. Hoover is not on the injury report this week, but coach Curt Cignetti has been mum on which QB will start. Top RB Turbo Richard is out, though, as Lee Beebe Jr. (715 yards and 4 TDs on 5.3 YPC) will step into a bigger role. The X-factor in this game, though, is Indiana’s defense, which ranks 5th in the FBS (259.2 YPG allowed) while giving up the 4th fewest points (12.4/game). While Indiana has looked very vulnerable this season, escaping with close wins and needing overtime the last two weeks, USC is 0-5 against ranked opponents in true road games under Riley. Indiana is a 9.5-point favorite. Prediction: Indiana 28, USC 26
No. 22 Missouri (6-3, 3-3 SEC) at No. 1 Georgia (8-1, 6-1), 3:30 p.m. on ABC/Disney+: Missouri is playing for its season, needing to win out against the top-ranked Bulldogs, Kentucky (currently No. 11) and Oklahoma to have a shot at the playoffs. After a strong start, the Tigers lost by at least two touchdowns each to ranked Ole Miss and Texas teams within their last three games to tumble to the fringe of the playoff picture. The pressure will be on QB Austin Simmons (2,204 yards, 18 TDs and 2 INTs) and RB Jamal Roberts (1,071 yards and 9 TDs on 5.1 YPC) to deliver against Georgia’s elite defense (8th nationally at 270.3 YPG allowed). Georgia and QB Gunner Stockton (1,857 yards, 20 TDs and 4 INTs) will look to keep its foot on the gas after blowing out Ole Miss 42-7 last week. The Bulldogs may be without C Drew Bobo, who was downgraded to doubtful on the official injury report. Georgia is a 16.5-point favorite. Prediction: Georgia 33, Missouri 24
Boston College (4-5) at No. 5 Notre Dame (8-1), 3:30 p.m. on NBC: Can the Fighting Irish avoid the letdown game that has befallen so many teams coming off a momentous win this season? Surely. QB CJ Carr (2,168, 21 TDs and 1 INT) is now a leading Heisman Trophy candidate by some oddsmakers after guiding Notre Dame to the win over top-ranked Miami last week. The Irish are 29.5-point favorites. Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Boston College 18
Baylor (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 10 BYU (7-2, 4-2), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: Baylor is 2-0 since firing head coach Dave Aranda with wins over UCF and Iowa State while QB DJ Lagway is playing his best football of the season. Lagway has thrown for 548 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs and rushed for 142 yards and a TD over those two games. The Bears and interim head coach Joe Klanderman will be hunting an upset against a BYU team looking to bounce back from a 28-20 loss to rival Utah last week and two losses in its last three games. QB Bear Bachmeier doubled his season total with 4 INTs in the loss to the Utes and will look to straighten out and keep the Cougars in the playoff chase with no margin for error now. BYU is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: BYU 31, Baylor 17
Michigan (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) at No. 16 Oregon (6-3, 4-2), 3:30 p.m. on FS1: Don’t look now, but Oregon is still alive in the playoff chase — especially in a watered-down Big Ten. Since a stinging loss at Illinois, the Ducks have bounced back with impressive wins over ranked Northwestern and Ohio State teams while putting up 75 points over the last two weeks. Backup QB Dylan Raiola was sharp in both games and has now passed for 1,354 yards, 11 TDs and 2 INTs overall. Michigan, on the other hand, is a crumbling disaster in coach Kyle Whittingham’s first season, with many wondering if he’ll even get a second year in Ann Arbor. A 15-6 loss to Michigan State last week in which the Wolverines managed just 192 offensive yards was the low point and cost offensive coordinator Jason Beck his job. It turns out, freshman QB Tommy Carr (641 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) was not the answer either in replacing Bryce Underwood (924-5-6), but he’s expected to remain the starter this week. Oregon is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction Oregon 20, Michigan 17
No. 19 Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3 SEC) at Oklahoma (5-4, 3-3), 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network: Ole Miss should be out of playoff consideration after taking a third loss and its second by at least 24 points, getting routed 42-7 by Georgia last week. QB Trinidad Chambliss managed just 170 passing yards and an INT in that game — his worst of the season. Star RB Kewan Lacy is now expected to miss the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. Oklahoma isn’t in any better shape, though, as one of the most disappointing teams in the country. The Sooners are 1.5-point favorites. Prediction: Ole Miss 26, Oklahoma 20
Oregon State (5-4, 3-2 Pac-12) at No. 24 Boise State (8-1, 5-0), 6 p.m. on USA Network: This would have been an incredible matchup with Oregon State was at full-strength, but star QB Braden Atkinson (FBS-leading 3,169 passing yards, 25 TDs, 3 INTs) will miss the game due to a hand injury, per reports. Backup Maalik Murphy completed 5 of 7 passes for 75 yards and a pick after replacing Atkinson in a loss to Texas State last week. It remains to be seen if he can keep the offensive fireworks going with star freshman WR Jesse Legree (61 catches for 1,209 yards and 14 TDs). Boise State would have been the favorite regardless, though, as the Broncos have rolled through this season with eight straight wins since an opening loss to Oregon. Dylan Riley is the top rusher in college football with 1,241 yards and 11 TDs (plus 218 receiving yards and 2 scores). Boise State QB Maddux Madsen is listed as questionable with a knee injury that kept him out the previous game, but backup Max Cutforth excelled in his stead (16-of-19 passing for 317 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs and a rushing TD). Boise State is a 14.5-point favorite. Prediction: Boise State 46, Oregon State 28
Florida (5-4, 3-4 SEC) at No. 11 Kentucky (7-2, 5-2 SEC), 6:15 p.m. on ESPN: Kentucky’s momentum and six-game winning streak came to a screeching halt last week in a 34-6 loss at Tennessee. QB Kenny Minchey (1,979 passing yards 14 TDs, 2 INTs), RB CJ Baxter (541 rushing yards and 8 TDs on 5.5 YPC) and Co. will look to get back on track and stay in the CFP chase while hosting a free-falling Florida team. The Gators got blown out, 23-7, at home by Oklahoma last week for their fourth loss in five games. After switching QBs to Tramell Jones Jr. (10-of-22 passing for 133 yards and 2 INTs) for that game, Florida will go back to Aaron Philo (1,367 yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs) and hope RB Jadan Baugh (836 yards and 14 TDs on 5.2 YPC) can get rolling again. Kentucky is a 3-point favorite. Prediction: Florida 28, Kentucky 27
No. 2 Utah (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) at No. 23 Arizona (7-2, 4-2), 7:30 p.m. on FOX: Like Notre Dame, Utah has to avoid the letdown risk (more like curse in college football this season) after a momentous win. The Utes are one of two unbeaten teams remaining after taking down rival BYU, but they have another tough test against a very capable Arizona team. The Wildcats, who took their only losses to ranked BYU and Texas Tech, are feisty with the program’s career passing leader Noah Fifita (2,794 yards, 21 TDs and 5 INTs) and Isaiah Mizell (40 catches for 753 yards and 7 TDs) forming a potent combo. For Utah, the formula is the same every week — steady defense (16.3 PPG allowed, tied for 14th-best nationally) and the two-headed attack of dual-threat QB Devon Dampier (2,053 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs; 482 rushing yards and 7 TDs) and RB Wayshawn Parker (762 rushing yards, 269 receiving yards and 13 total TDs). Parker is expected to play despite a bruised heel. The Utes are 2.5-point favorites. Prediction: Utah 38, Arizona 34
No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: This is the biggest remaining hurdle for Texas on the path to the playoffs as the Longhorns close the season against Arkansas and at Texas A&M. LSU is desperate to stay in the playoff conversation, though, so this should be a good duel between talented but flawed teams with everything at stake. Texas gets a major boost with star EDGE Colin Simmons (10.5 sacks in five games) expected to play for the first time since mid-October and WR Cam Coleman (23-409-7) expected back after a one-game absence. Of course, there’s no telling what to expect from up-and-down QB Arch Manning (2,024 yards, 18 TDs and 7 INTs), who has thrown for 517 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs the last two games in wins over Mississippi State and Missouri. Needless to say, the Longhorns need him to keep it going. On the other side, a 31-13 loss to Alabama last week pushed LSU out of the playoff picture (for now). Speaking of volatile QBs, the Tigers’ Sam Leavitt (2,553 passing yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs; 340 rushing yards and 8 TDs) has thrown picks in all but two games this season. LSU is a 4-point favorite. Prediction: Texas 28, LSU 24
Purdue (3-6, 2-4 Big Ten) at No. 15 Iowa (7-2, 4-2), 7:30 p.m. on NBC: Iowa has responded to a regrettable loss to Minnesota by beating Wisconsin and Northwestern by a combined 54-10 the last two games. With leading rusher Kamari Moulton out for the season, L.J. Phillips broke out last week with 21 carries for 128 yards (plus 14 receiving yards). He rushed for 1,920 yards and 19 TDs at South Dakota last season and is finally getting a chance to prove himself in the Big Ten after an early-season injury sidelined him for much of the fall. Since showing signs of life with back-to-back wins over Illinois and Minnesota, Purdue has lost three straight winnable games to Washington, Penn State and Maryland. Iowa is a 17.5-point favorite. Prediction: Iowa 31, Purdue 9
No. 17 South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC) at Arkansas (3-6, 1-5), 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network: South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in college football with four straight SEC wins (over Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, led by QB LaNorris Sellers (2,100 passing yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs; 637 rushing yards and 7 TDs.) At one point, coach Shane Beamer’s seat couldn’t have been hotter — now the Gamecocks are trying to crash the playoffs. Arkansas’ only Power 4 win came against Vanderbilt. South Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: South Carolina 37, Arkansas 21
No. 12 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) at No. 25 Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2), 9:30 p.m. on ESPN: This could be a classic shootout. Texas Tech made the switch to well-traveled veteran QB Thomas Castellanos a couple games ago, and he rewarded the Red Raiders with a dazzling performance last week vs. West Virginia with 362 passing yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs and 102 rushing yards in a 53-48 win. The Red Raiders also have one of the better RBs in the country in J’Koby Williams (954 yards and 7 TDs on 8.0 YPC). But on the other side is an Oklahoma State offense that ranks second nationally in yards (533.6/game) and third in points (43.9/game) with the former North Texas trio of QB Drew Mestemaker (2,962 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs), RB Caleb Hawkins (1,081 rushing yards, 424 receiving yards, 10 total TDs) and WR Wyatt Young (46 catches for 763 yards and 8 TDs) along with fellow star WR Justin Bowick (44-790-10). The over/under is set at 73.5 points, which seems low. Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 41
