Score predictions and thoughts on every top 25 matchup on college football’s Week 9 slate.
It’s been a rough week for USC and embattled football coach Lincoln Riley.
First came the damaging 24-7 loss at Wisconsin last Saturday night. Then the aftermath, with media, other critics and USC faithful alike suggesting the end of Riley’s Trojans tenure as impending and inevitable at this point. And finally came Riley’s response to it all, which frankly only further stoked the flames of fan frustration and fury.
“I love it here. I mean like I told you guys a lot of times — there’s not many people in college football history that gave up what I gave up to come here,” Riley said. “I don’t care if it’s 15 years down the line, that never should be taken lightly. It’s certainly not taken lightly by me. I came here because I believe in this place and none of that has changed whatsoever.”
Nobody is questioning whether Riley believes in his tenure at USC — the question very clearly is whether USC has any belief left in Riley.
But to fashion himself as some sort of martyr who made a great personal sacrifice for the benefit of USC to come to the rescue and take on its cause is a bit rich.
Not as rich as Riley, of course.
Was it a bold move for him to leave Oklahoma five years ago after posting a 55-10 record there with three College Football Playoff appearances? Absolutely, it was.
But maybe the fully guaranteed 10-year, $110-million contract (the widely reported terms, though the school has never made them public) and other incentives he was given to do so had something to do with it all, no?
Perhaps the opportunity to be given a long and lucrative runway at a desperate “blue blood” program — while Sooners fans were already growing critical after defensive collapses in those playoff games and then missing the Big 12 championship game entirely his final season — was simply too much to turn down.
Either way, Riley wasn’t a selfless savior then and he’s not a victim now.
Most Trojans fans were indeed ecstatic and borderline grateful at that time that Riley, one of the most successful young coaches in the sport, had arrived with pledges of making USC the “mecca of college football” again.
But those sentiments aren’t provided into perpetuity — they’re entirely contingent on the results and the promises of competing for championships actually being fulfilled.
Riley simply hasn’t delivered on his end, and so he shouldn’t be surprised if the fan base is no longer genuflecting at his decision to take the job and $100-plus million in guaranteed money.
“Listen, if I didn’t want to be at this place, I wouldn’t have come here in the first place. I’ve had plenty of opportunities to leave,” Riley said. “This is where I want to be. This is the right place for me. I’m the right person to be here.”
That’s very debatable.
This is Riley’s fifth season at USC and the Trojans are 41-20 in that time. His best season was his first, when Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and the Trojans were genuinely in the CFP chase (when it was still a four-team bracket) before a second loss to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game.
That 11-3 debut was a terrific start. Since then, though, USC has finished 8-5, 7-6 and 9-4 (with a No. 20 final AP ranking last year). It has not been particularly close to the playoff picture, even in the expanded 12-team format. It has not been close to a Big Ten title, finishing tied for fourth at 7-2 in the conference last year.
Worst of all, though, there is simply too much evidence at this point that Riley can’t win the biggest games and that every Big Ten road game is perilous under his watch.
His best wins as USC coach came in his first season, beating No. 16 UCLA and No. 15 Notre Dame late in the season before the second loss to Utah quashed any playoff hopes (and the subsequent stunning loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl ended the season on a down note).
Since then, Riley is 4-11 vs. ranked opponents without a true needle-moving win.
Those four ranked wins were over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, in the 2024 season-opener against an LSU team that went on to finish 9-4 and unranked, and last season against a Michigan team that finished 9-4 and ranked No. 21 and an Iowa team that finished 9-4 and ranked No. 17.
His teams fell flat in their two biggest games so far this season — losing 41-27 at home to a down Oregon team relying on its backup QB and the one-sided blowout loss last week against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team on the road at Wisconsin as the Trojans scored their fewest points of any game in the Riley era.
USC is a rather hollow 6-2 — its best win on the road at Penn State against a rebuilding program that is 3-4 and winless in the Big Ten this season — and the toughest parts of the schedule haven’t even come yet.
Starting Saturday at home against No. 2 Ohio State, the Trojans face a finishing gauntlet that continues after a bye week with No. 4 Indiana on the road, a favorable home matchup vs. Maryland and then No. 7 UCLA across town on the road.
The fact that the rival Bruins are undefeated and looking like a legit CFP team in Year 1 under coach Bob Chesney has not helped matters for Riley.
Nor does the reality that the university president and athletic director who hired him are gone, or that the school and new AD Jen Cohen have made sure he has every resource requested and needed to compete at the highest level including a state-of-the-art new football facility that opened on campus this year, an overhauled recruiting department and the NIL support needed to land the No. 1-ranked recruiting class last cycle, etc.
The reality is other coaches are stepping into harder jobs and accomplishing more in Year 1 (Chesney, Kentucky’s Will Stein, let alone what Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana in three years) than Riley is doing in Year 5 (or any of those seasons).
The frustration within the fan base is fair and merited.
This is what Riley signed up for. This is the cost of that $100-plus million contract — the expectations to live up to it.
No one questions that Riley wants to do so or that he wants to be there — but without flipping the narrative on the field these final four games it may no longer be his decision to make. (Without getting into the details of how USC would navigate a buyout that has been reported to be somewhere between $57 million and $70 million).
Saturday night vs. an Ohio State team turning to a thoroughly untested true freshman quarterback in Luke Fahey (who is from USC’s backyard in Mission Viejo, California) might well be viewed as Riley’s Last Stand — or the start of it at least.
He certainly can’t go 0-3 against the Trojans’ remaining ranked opponents and expect to return for a sixth season.
We’ll get to our prediction for that game and all of the top 25 matchups as we break down the Week 9 college football schedule:
Predictions For Top 25 College Football Matchups In Week 9
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 22 Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) at No. 13 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1), 12 p.m. on ESPN: Texas Tech took its first loss of the season last week, 37-24 at Cincinnati, and will look to get back on track and stay in the Big 12 race against another tough conference foe. Arizona took its only loss in Week 2 at BYU and has been on a roll since with five straight wins all coming by double figures. Veteran QB Noah Fifita (2,064 yards, 18 TDs and 4 INTs) has Arizona averaging 36.1 PPG (tied for 21st nationally) and 459.4 YPG (17th) and has thrown for at least 284 yards and multiple TDs in every game during that winning streak. The Red Raiders will get a boost to their backfield with the return of RB Cameron Dickey for his first action in nearly a month. Dickey (242 rushing yards and 4 TDs) and J’Koby Williams (619 yards and 5 TDs on 7.2 YPC) lead the way offensively for Texas Tech, which is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas Tech 36, Arizona 33
No. 5 Notre Dame (6-1) at Navy (2-5), 12 p.m. on ABC: The Fighting Irish had a bye after the dramatic loss at BYU two weeks ago and return as 30.5-point favorites vs. a Navy team mired in a down season with just one win over Power 4 competition (Tulsa). This is a take-care-of-business game for Notre Dame. Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Navy 24
No. 19 SMU (6-1, 4-1 ACC) at Syracuse (3-4, 1-4), 12 p.m. on ESPN2: SMU is riding a four-game winning streak and in the thick of the ACC race, led by veteran QB Kevin Jennings (2,062 yards, 19 TDs and 5 INTs), RB Kendrick Raphael (641 yards and 8 TDs on 5.3 YPC) and a deep receiving corps. Syracuse scored its best win of the season, 31-30 in overtime at North Carolina, last week and has one of the most prolific WRs in the country in Umari Hatcher (54 catches for 887 yards and 8 TDs). QB Steve Angeli was upgraded from questionable to probable late in the week after returning to action last week and throwing for 256 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. SMU is a 9.5-point favorite. Prediction: SMU 34, Syracuse 26
No. 22 Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) at Iowa (5-2, 2-2), 12 p.m. on FOX: In a college football season that has been defined by letdowns a week after big wins, can Wisconsin buck the trend and build momentum after its 24-7 beatdown of USC last week? Expect a defensive duel with the Badgers and Hawkeyes ranked 13th (279.9 YPG) and 14th (281.3 YPG) nationally in total defense, respectively, while both are giving up less than 15.5 PPG. Wisconsin won last week despite dual-threat QB Colton Joseph passing for just 58 yards and rushing for 32. He’ll need to do more against a much tougher defensive challenge. Iowa is now without top RB Kamari Moulton (541 yards and 4 TDs on 6.3 YPC) for the rest of the season due to an upper body injury and will look for L.J. Phillips Jr. (just 88 yards in limited action due to a Week 1 ankle injury), who rushed for 1,920 yards and 19 TDs last season at South Dakota, to take on a bigger role alongside Xavier Williams (187 yards and 3 TDs on 7.5 YPC). Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite. Prediction: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 13
Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2), 12:45 p.m. on SEC Network: Speaking of letdowns, Auburn followed its upset of then-No. 1 Georgia with a 38-17 loss to LSU last week and now faces another daunting SEC challenge on the road at Ole Miss. Tigers QB Byrum Brown has been hit-and-miss all season while throwing for 1,365 yards, 8 TDs and 7 INTs with 479 rushing yards and 6 scores. He’ll need to be at his best to keep pace with Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss (1,926 yards, 16 TDs, 7 INTs with 6 rushing TDs) and RB Kewan Lacy (388 yards and 5 TDs) as Ole Miss looks to bounce back from a 34-27 loss at Texas and stay on the fringe of the SEC title chase and CFP picture. The Rebels are 11.5-point favorites. Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 24
No. 17 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) vs. No. 3 Georgia (6-1, 4-1), 3:30 p.m. on ABC/Disney+ (in Atlanta): What a rollercoaster ride it has been for Florida in coach Jon Sumrall’s first season. The Gators beat then-No. 4 Ole Miss by 24 points, then lost by 28 points to Missouri and 19 points to South Carolina in back-to-back games before upsetting Texas on the road (27-24). Coming off a bye, Florida now tangles with rival Georgia in a neutral-site showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Aaron Philo will start at QB after missing the Texas game due to a shoulder injury and splitting first-team reps with Tramell Jones Jr. in practice this week. Regardless, the emphasis for the Gators will be on their rushing attack led by Jadan Baugh (763 yards and 13 TDs on 5.7 YPC). Georgia also had a bye last week coming off its stunning loss to Auburn and will look to get back on track behind QB Gunner Stockton (1,570 yards, 16 TDs and 4 INTs), a deep backfield and 12th-ranked defense (276.4 YPG allowed) that is expected to have All-SEC safety KJ Bolden (leg) back after he was injured in that loss to Auburn. Georgia, which has won the last five meetings with Florida, is an 11.5-point favorite. Prediction: Georgia 38, Florida 28
Minnesota (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) at No. 7 Indiana (7-1, 4-1), 3:30 p.m. on CBS: Indiana is a foot out of bounds in the end zone away from being undefeated, but the Hoosiers have not made it look easy this year. They followed that dramatic loss to Ohio State by needing overtime to win at Michigan, 13-6, last week and have also been tested by Northwestern and Nebraska in close games. This simply isn’t the same offense with QB Josh Hoover (1,741 yards, 18 TDs and 1 INT) that it was with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza last year, but the Hoosiers remain elite defensively while giving up the fewest points of any Power 4 team (12.0/game) and eighth-fewest yards in the FBS (264.8/game). Minnesota, meanwhile, bounced back from a humbling 41-13 loss to Purdue by beating a ranked Iowa team, 13-10, last week. QB Drake Lindsey has passed for 1,472 yards, 9 TDs and 6 INTs. The Gophers have a way of making most games competitive, but their already limited offense could struggle to keep pace against this Indiana defense. The Hoosiers are 20.5-point favorites. Prediction: Indiana 27, Minnesota 13
Arizona State (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) at No. 8 BYU (6-1, 3-1), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: BYU had its letdown game last week, following a momentous victory over Notre Dame by losing 39-31 in double-overtime to UCF — in line with the broader narrative of this college football season. The Cougars will now look to get back on track behind QB Bear Bachmeier (1,514 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs; 321 rushing yards and 7 TDs). Arizona State has struggled to find productivity/stability at QB with Cutter Boley benched two weeks ago and Mikey Keene a game-time decision with a knee injury. The Sun Devils are expected to turn to freshman QB Jake Fette if Keene can’t go. BYU is a 16.5-point favorite. Prediction: BYU 41, Arizona State 20
No. 20 Northwestern (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) at Oregon (4-3, 2-2), 3:30 p.m. on Peacock: Oregon turned back to Dylan Raiola at QB last week but lost 21-10 at Illinois. Raiola, who passed for 246 yards with 0 TDs or INTs in that game, is expected to remain the starter this week against a Northwestern team that has been one of the pleasant surprises of the Big Ten. A 6-point loss to Indiana last month is the Wildcats’ lone blemish, as QB Aidan Chiles (1,617 passing yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT; 181 yards and 9 TDs rushing) is having a career-best season at his third school while offensive coordinator Chip Kelly — the former Oregon head coach — has built a prolific rushing attack with Caleb Komolafe (551 yards and 5 TDs on 6.3 YPC) and Joseph Himon II (371 yards and 3 TDs on 9.8 YPC). Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: Northwestern 27, Oregon 24
No. 6 Utah (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) at Cincinnati (5-2, 2-2), 3:45 p.m. on ESPN: Cincinnati will be put to the test to this week to not fall prey to the aforementioned trend of letdown performances, coming off a 37-24 win over a then-top 10 Texas Tech team. Cole Tabb rushed for 173 yards and a TD on 16 carries in that win and has at least 118 rushing yards in three of his last four games. QB JC French IV threw his first 2 INTs of the season in that win but has been otherwise sharp while passing for 1,510 yards and 13 TDs and rushing for 291 yards and 6 scores. Utah handled a tough test last week in a 21-13 win over Houston and now faces its toughest road challenge. QB Devon Dampier (1,616 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs; 348 rushing yards and 5 scores) has been solid while Wayshawn Parker has been one of the best RBs in the country with 644 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC, 247 receiving yards and 12 total TDs. Utah, under first-time head coach Morgan Scalley (the program’s longtime defensive coordinator), ranks ninth nationally in giving up 14.6 PPG. Utah is a 7-point favorite. Prediction: Utah 41, Cincinnati 34
Virginia (4-4, 2-3 ACC) at No. 14 Wake Forest (6-1, 4-1), 3:45 p.m. on ESPN2: Virginia was the surprise team in the ACC last season. This year it’s Wake Forest, which has only lost to No. 1 Miami. The Demon Deacons will look to keep it rolling behind their productive passing attack with QB Gio Lopez (1,947 yards, 17 TDs, 1 INT) having a career year and WR Carlos Hernandez (49-720-4) expected to be back in action this week after being sidelined by injury vs. Cal. Virginia has lost two straight and three out of four games with QB Beau Pribula struggling (0 passing TDs, 1 INT and under 160 passing yards in each of the last two games). Wake Forest is a 12.5-point favorite. Prediction: Wake Forest 33, Virginia 27
Nevada (3-4) at UCLA (7-0), 4:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network: UCLA, one of just three remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS, gets a break from Big Ten play while looking to continue its momentum under first-year head coach Bob Chesney. The Bruins are 22.5-point favorites. Prediction: UCLA 44, Nevada 17
No. 24 Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) at Iowa State (3-4, 1-3), 7 p.m. on FOX: Oklahoma State put up a season-high 57 points last week in a dominant win over Colorado and QB Drew Mestemaker (2,326 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs) is garnering buzz as the potential top pick in the draft. The Cowboys have the third-ranked offense in college football at 529.1 YPG under first-year coach Eric Morris and should be too much for the rebuilding Cyclones to handle. Iowa State is 0-4 vs. ranked opponents this season, including a 39-3 loss to Arizona last week. Oklahoma State is a 9.5-point favorite. Prediction: Oklahoma State 46, Iowa State 23
No. 1 Miami (7-0, 5-0 ACC) at North Carolina (4-3, 2-2), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: The top of the AP rankings have been a perilous position to maintain this season with upsets galore, but Miami has made a strong case as the best team in college football with only one truly close game (an overtime win over Florida State) all season. QB Darian Mensah (2,151 yards, 22 TDs, 1 INT) and WR Malachi Toney (66 catches for 952 yards and 11 TDs) are both Heisman Trophy candidates and will look to keep rolling against an improved North Carolina team that will need a sublime defensive effort to stay in this game. Miami is a 14-point favorite. Prediction: Miami 36, North Carolina 17
No. 2 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) at USC (6-2, 3-2), 7:30 p.m. on NBC: We laid out the stakes for this one up above. With 2025 Heisman finalist Julian Sayin now likely out for the season with a shoulder injury, freshman Luke Fahey, who has 203 passing yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in garbage-time action earlier this season, makes his first start while returning home to Southern California. Can the Trojans take advantage of a potentially vulnerable Ohio State team and do enough to limit Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith (52 catches for 984 yards and 12 TDs) and pull off the upset to keep their playoff hopes — and Lincoln Riley’s future — alive? USC QB Jayden Maiava (2,302 yards, 19 TDs and 5 INTs) will look to shake off his worst game of the season after throwing 2 picks and taking 5 sacks in the loss at Wisconsin. Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 36, USC 27
Mississippi State (4-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 11 Texas (5-2, 2-2), 7:30 p.m. on ESPN/Disney+: Mississippi State has been a shell of itself since QB Kamario Taylor’s season-ending injury, losing 31-0 to LSU and 23-15 to Oklahoma. Texas has no margin for error the rest of the way and should — should — be able to handle business as QB Arch Manning (1,507 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs) looks to build some late-season momentum. Texas is a 20.5-point favorite. Prediction: Texas 31, Mississippi State 17
No. 23 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at Arkansas (3-4, 1-3), 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network: Arkansas scored its first Power 4 win under first-year coach Ryan Silverfield, beating Vanderbilt 31-21 last time out with KJ Jackson throwing for 251 yards and rushing for 58 yards and a TD. But the Razorbacks will have a much tougher time slowing down Missouri and its rushing attack. Jamal Roberts has led the Tigers to this point with 867 rushing yards and 8 TDs, but Ahmad Hardy is set to make his season debut Saturday night after recovering from an offseason gunshot wound. Hardy was one of college football’s top RBs last year with 1,649 rushing yards and 16 TDs. Missouri is a 10-point favorite. Prediction: Missouri 38, Arkansas 20
Texas State (4-3, 2-1 Pac-12) at No. 20 Boise State (6-1, 3-0), 10 p.m. on CW: Two of the top rushing offenses in the country go head-to-head. Texas State ranks fourth nationally with 272 rushing yards per game, led by Torrance Burgess Jr. (889 yards and 5 TDs on 7.5 YPC), while Boise State ranks seventh (237.9/game) led by Dylan Riley (963 yards and 8 TDs on 6.9 YPC). Boise State is a 10.5-point favorite. Prediction: Boise State 41, Texas State 30
