Saturday brings six college football matchups between top 25 teams as the season shifts to a full slate of conference play in Week 4.
One of the charms of the college football season has always been its abject ruthlessness.
Even the expanded College Football Playoff field hasn’t diluted that. There’s minimal margin for error, and this is about the point of the season that reality starts to hit teams in a very emphatic way.
Take No. 12 USC hosting No. 20 Oregon on Saturday night, for instance.
On the surface, the Trojans are 4-0 and having one of their best seasons under coach Lincoln Riley. But dig even just a little deeper and see a team that has given up 65 points over the last two weeks to the likes of Louisiana and Rutgers while having a hard time putting away the Scarlett Knights.
If Riley and USC can’t beat this Oregon team — one that barely escaped Boise State and then lost at Oklahoma State — then when is it ever going to happen for him in Los Angeles? He’s in his fifth season there with no CFP appearances yet after making it three times at Oklahoma, all when it was still an ultra-exclusive four-team field.
The Trojans still have to play a solid Washington team, No. 13 Penn State on the road, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 5 Indiana on the road and the rivalry clash with a much-improved UCLA team. A loss to Oregon on Saturday night makes any path to the playoffs look unlikely.
It may only be Week 4, but that’s the blunt reality of the college football season — and what makes it so dang compelling week to week.
As for the Ducks, coach Dan Lanning has built a perennial playoff power with annual national title aspirations. They got to the CFP semifinals a year ago, have one of the most expensive rosters in the sport and … a loss Saturday night would essentially decimate their playoff chances by the end of September.
The stakes are high for many teams Saturday, for that matter, with six marquee matchups pitting top 25 teams against each other.
Let’s get into the weekly predictions …
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
College Football Top 25 Schedule For Week 4 With Predictions
Friday Night Rewind
No. 5 Indiana 29, Northwestern 23: The reigning national champs got tested on Friday night by upstart Northwestern, which twice cut Indiana’s lead to 2 points in the fourth quarter but couldn’t complete the comeback. The Hoosiers lost star running back Turbo Richard to a lower leg injury after getting tackled awkwardly out of bounds in the first half. He had already rushed for 68 yards on just 9 carries. Coach Curt Cignetti did not have an update on Richard’s status afterward, but any missed time will be costly for the Hoosiers, who already lost another main RB in Week 1 when Khobie Martin went down with a forearm injury expected to sideline him until midseason. Lee Beebe Jr. picked up the slack for Indiana with 203 rushing yards and a TD on 24 carries, including a 70-yard scamper late in the fourth quarter to set the offense up for a subsequent game-sealing TD. Josh Hoover passed for 201 yards and 1 TD plus a rushing TD and Charlie Becker had 7 catches for 98 yards as the Hoosiers moved to 4-0 and stretched their overall winning streak to 20 games.
Marquee Matchups Saturday
No. 1 Texas (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 14 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0), 12 p.m. on ABC: Saturday starts right off with one of the biggest games of the day as the top-ranked Longhorns head into Knoxville to take on a plenty-capable Volunteers team that hasn’t really been tested yet. It’s a big spot for Tennessee five-star true freshman QB Faizon Brandon, who has been solid to start his college career with 552 passing yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs plus 137 yards and 3 TDs rushing. But the Vols will lean heavily on a rushing offense that ranks 4th nationally at 298.7 YPG (behind only the run-heavy option-oriented offenses at Army, Navy and Air Force). DeSean Bishop (286 yards and 4 TDs on 6.7 YPC) and Daune Morris (234 yards and 2 TDs on 8.1 YPC) lead the way. Texas has the signature 24-23 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State, but it hasn’t gone on the road yet and quarterback Arch Manning has struggled in his career away from Austin (just 7 TDs and 5 INTs in five road games last year, including a damaging loss at Florida). The Longhorns are 5.5-point road favorites. Prediction: Texas 31, Tennessee 27
No. 4 Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at No. 21 Florida (3-0, 1-0), 3:30 p.m. on ABC: In one of the wilder point spreads of the week, Florida is favored by 3.5 points in this one. Sure, the game is in The Swamp and the Gators are coming off a 44-39 road win at Auburn in coach Jon Sumrall’s SEC debut. But Ole Miss has already beaten two ranked teams (Louisville and the big 32-24 win over LSU and former coach Lane Kiffin last week) and the Rebels have arguably the best player in college football in QB Trinidad Chambliss (924 passing yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs plus 2 rushing TDs). There are a few factors working against Ole Miss. Star RB Kewan Lacy (1,567 rushing yards and 24 TDs last season) was downgraded to doubtful on the official injury report Friday with a left shoulder injury. The Rebels, as noted, are coming off the high of an emotionally charged win over their former coach in the biggest game of Week 3 and now have to go on the road while avoiding any letdown. And Florida has one of the best running backs in the country in junior Jadan Baugh (458 yards and 8 TDs on 8.5 YPC) and the No. 2-ranked scoring offense (54.0 PPG), led by former Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. But making Chambliss and Ole Miss — a CFP semifinalist last season — underdogs against a suspect Florida defense just feels wrong. Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Florida 36
No. 17 Iowa (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at No. 18 Michigan (3-0, 0-0), 3:30 p.m. on CBS: A 17-10 win over then-No. 11 (now unranked) Oklahoma did nothing to make anyone forget that Michigan should have lost to Western Michigan in Week 1. Or to quiet concerns about QB Bryce Underwood (504 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; team-high 156 rushing yards, 2 TDs) and his ability to lead a Big Ten contender. The Wolverines will lean heavily on the RB tandem of Jordan Marshall (135 yards and 2 TDs) and true freshman Savion Hiter (83 yards and 2 TDs) in a daunting matchup against Iowa’s always stifling defense. The Hawkeyes have been excellent in that regard so far, leading the FBS in both total defense (176.7 YPG) and scoring defense (4.3 PPG). Offense is another story usually for Iowa, but it has four running backs with at least 128 rushing yards already while Kamari Moulton (240 yards and 2 TDs on 9.2 YPC), Xavier Williams (162 yards and 3 TDs on 10.8 YPC) and Braeden Jackson (155 yards and 1 TD on 11.1 YPC) have been exceptionally efficient. Michigan is a 5.5-point favorite at home, which seems overly generous. Prediction: Iowa 21, Michigan 19
No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 10 LSU (2-1, 0-1), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: Two College Football Playoff hopefuls coming off tough losses. LSU, of course, lost on the road at Ole Miss in coach Lane Kiffin’s dramatic return to Oxford last week. The bigger storyline for the Tigers now is whether high-profile transfer QB Sam Leavitt can settle in after opening the season with 732 passing yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs in three games along with 198 rushing yards and 6 TDs. LSU needs Leavitt to find his groove as a passer — not just a runner. Meanwhile, Texas A&M got upset 31-21 at home by Kentucky in an eye-opening game for both teams. Veteran QB Marcel Reed was off the mark while completing just 26 of 49 passes for 236 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs (albeit while rushing for 80 yards and a score). Reed can be boom or bust at times, and his volatility is the biggest vulnerability for the Aggies in their quest to return the playoffs for a second straight season. LSU is an 8.5-point favorite. A second loss this early for either team complicates their respective CFP hopes. Prediction: LSU 36, Texas A&M 33
No. 20 Oregon (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at No. 12 USC (4-0, 1-0), 7:30 p.m. on NBC: Lincoln Riley is 0-2 head-to-head vs. Dan Lanning and Oregon, but this is his best chance yet to get over the hump vs. the Ducks and in general for his USC tenure. He has a Heisman hopeful QB in fifth-year senior Jayden Maiava (1,173 passing yards, 12 TDs, 1 INT), a prolific two-headed rushing attack with King Miller (338 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 5.3 YPC) and Waymond Jordan (188 yards and 1 TD on 5.1 YPC) and a deep stable of talented young pass-catchers, although breakout freshman star Trent Mosley is now sidelined by a knee injury. Oregon, meanwhile, has gotten fine play from QB Dante Moore (849 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs), but the Ducks haven’t been elite running the ball as in past years and their defense is showing plenty of cracks. Oregon needed to rally to beat Boise State 34-27 in Week 1 and then lost 39-31 to unranked Oklahoma State the next week. As noted, the pressure is on both teams in a big way Saturday night. Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite. Prediction: USC 38, Oregon 36
No. 19 Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 24 Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0), 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network: Mississippi State is ranked for the first time since 2022 and with good reason. The Bulldogs have one of the most exciting talents in college football in dual-threat QB Kamario Taylor, who has 832 passing yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT with 178 rushing yards and a score. He’s capable of even more on the ground as he showed in his first college start, rushing for 173 yards and 2 scores vs. Ole Miss. Taylor plays a heck of a lot like former Heisman Trophy winner and two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson but in an even bigger frame at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds. Missouri, meanwhile, has gotten solid play from Ole Miss transfer QB Austin Simmons (652 yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs) and RB Jamal Roberts (300 yards, 4 TDs) while still awaiting the eventual return of star RB Ahmad Hardy, who is recovering from an offseason gunshot wound. Mississippi State is a 5.5-point home favorite. Prediction: Mississippi State 34, Missouri 26
Other Top 25 Games
Illinois (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at No. 7 Ohio State (2-1, 0-0), 12 p.m. on FOX: The Buckeyes, led by Heisman Trophy candidates QB Julian Sayin (839 passing yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT) and WR Jeremiah Smith (21 catches for 400 yards and 3 TDs), haven’t played anyone of note outside of the 24-23 loss at Texas (in which they led by 20 points at the start of the fourth quarter). Illinois lost its only Power 4 matchup so far, 31-27 at home to Duke. This game will show a lot about what the Fighting Illini have in veteran QB Katin Houser (758 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs), who struggled in his first Big Ten go-round at Michigan State before spending the last two years rebuilding his career at East Carolina. Ohio State is a 26.5-point favorite. Prediction: Ohio State 41, Illinois 24
Sam Houston (1-2) at No. 11 Texas Tech (3-0), 12 p.m. on TNT: The Red Raiders get a chance to catch their breath after a huge 28-26 win over Houston last week. J’Koby Williams leads a deep Texas Tech backfield with 249 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 6.2 YPC. The Red Raiders are 34.5-point favorites. Prediction: Texas Tech 54, Sam Houston 10
Wake Forest (2-1, 0-1 ACC) at No. 16 Louisville (2-1, 1-0), 12 p.m. on ESPN/Disney+: Louisville’s lone loss came in a tight 41-38 battle with Ole Miss back in Week 1, while the Cardinals scored a ranked win last week, 41-31, over SMU. Jeff Brohm hit big in the transfer portal with former Ohio State QB Lincoln Kienholz, who has thrown for 816 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs along with 153 yards and 4 TDs rushing. But the Cardinals’ true strength remains the backfield of Keyjuan Brown (231 rushing yards on an incredible 12.1 YPC) and unrelated Isaac Brown (164 rushing yards). Wake Forest is a capable team as well, playing Miami tough in a 33-20 loss last week. The Demon Deacons are led by the passing tandem of Gio Lopez (887 passing yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT) and Carlos Hernandez (21 catches for 322 yards and 2 TDs). Louisville is an 11.5-point favorite. Prediction: Louisville 36, Wake Forest 23
No. 3 Notre Dame (3-0) at Purdue (1-2), 2 p.m. on NBC: Sophomore Nolan James Jr. looks to be overtaking Aneyas Williams as the Fighting Irish’s featured running back after a breakout performance last week with 26 carries for 121 yards and a TD in a win over Michigan State. Notre Dame has been dominant defensively, giving up just 7.7 points per game (tied for 3rd-best in the FBS). Purdue has a potent passing attack, meanwhile, with veteran Ryan Browne enjoying a career season so far, ranking second in the FBS in passing with 1,024 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT. The Boilermakers don’t play much defense, however, ranking 128th in points allowed (36.3/game). Notre Dame is a 27.5-point favorite. Prediction: Notre Dame 44, Purdue 21
Oklahoma (2-1, 0-0 SEC) at No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0), 3:30 p.m. on ESPN/Disney+: Georgia hasn’t been tested at all so far, but the Bulldogs have been downright dominant in winning their three games by 138 points — including a 45-17 win over Arkansas to open SEC play. QB Gunner Stockton has been near-perfect, completing 84.4% of his passes for 583 yards, 9 TDs and 0 INTs while Nate Frazier has rushed for 202 yards and 5 TDs on 8.4 YPC. Oklahoma still plays good defense — tied for third nationally in allowing just 7.7 PPG — but QB John Mateer (652 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) and the offense in general have been a major disappointment. The Bulldogs are 13.5-point favorites. Prediction: Georgia 27, Oklahoma 16
No. 15 Utah (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) at Iowa State (2-1, 0-0), 3:30 p.m. on FOX: Utah, in its first season being led by head coach Morgan Scalley (its longtime defensive coordinator under Kyle Whittingham), has beat up on a light schedule to start the fall with blowouts of Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State. Dual-threat QB Devon Dampier is back for the Utes and doing what he does with 690 passing yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT, plus 114 rushing yards and 2 scores. This will be Utah’s first real test, though. Iowa State is in its first season under head coach Jimmy Rogers, formerly the HC at Washington State for a season and South Dakota State prior to that. The Cyclones lost their only Power 4 matchup so far but were plenty competitive in a 16-13 road loss to rival Iowa. RB Aiden Flora, a former walk-on, has been a revelation while rushing for 328 yards and 3 TDs on 8.6 YPC while dual-threat QB Jaylen Raynor (434 passing yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT; 110 rushing yards and 2 scores) transferred in after starting for Arkansas State the last three seasons. Utah is a 7.5-point favorite. Prediction: Utah 27, Iowa State 17
No. 25 Houston (2-1) at Georgia Southern (1-1), 4 p.m. on ESPNU: The Cougars are coming off that hard-fought 28-26 road loss at Texas Tech and get a chance to bounce back at home vs. the Eagles of the Sun Belt. Houston QB Conner Weigman has been sharp to start the season, passing for 708 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT with a rushing TD. The Cougars are favored by 17.5 points. Prediction: Houston 31, Georgia Southern 13
Wisconsin (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at No. 13 Penn State (3-0, 0-0), 5 p.m. on Peacock: The Matt Campbell Era in Happy Valley is off to a fine start, but the Nittany Lions haven’t actually played anyone while rolling over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. QB Rocco Becht, who followed Campbell from Iowa State, has been impressive, though, passing for 751 yards, 9 TDs and 0 INTs. Leading receiver Koby Howard (12 catches for 344 yards and 2 TDs) is out indefinitely, however. Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell is coaching for his job this year, meanwhile. So far, the Badgers lost their only Power 4 matchup, 41-13 to Notre Dame. QB Colton Joseph, a transfer from Old Dominion, has passed for 752 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs with 82 rushing yards and a score. Penn State is a 10-point favorite. Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 21
Central Michigan (2-1) at No. 6 Miami (3-0), 6:30 p.m. on CW: Nothing to see here. The Hurricanes should continue to roll behind Heisman candidates Darian Mensah (873 passing yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs) and Malachi Toney (28 catches for 444 yards and 5 TDs). Miami is a 41.5-point favorite. Prediction: Miami 61, Central Michigan 13
South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 8 Alabama (3-0, 1-0), 7 p.m. on ESPN: It feels like this could be the last season for coach Shane Beamer at South Carolina. The Gamecocks blew an early 16-point lead in a 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State last week and QB LaNorris Sellers (648 passing yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs; 172 rushing yards and 1 TD) hasn’t regained the form he showed during his breakout 2024 season. That said, the jury is still very much undecided on this Alabama team, which has overcome slow starts in ultimately comfortable wins over Kentucky and Florida State. Redshirt freshman QB Keelon Russell (764 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs; 133 rushing yards and 2 TDs) is still developing, but the rushing attack has been better this year for the Crimson Tide (209.7 YPG, 36th nationally) led by Daniel Hill (210 yards and 3 TDs on 5.5 YPC). Alabama is a 12.5-point favorite. Prediction: Alabama 37, South Carolina 28
Missouri State (1-2) at No. 22 SMU (2-1), 9 p.m. on ACC Network: The Mustangs and veteran QB Kevin Jennings (989 yards, 9 TDs and 4 INTs) will look to bounce back from a 41-31 loss to Louisville and bounce back as 33.5-point favorites. Prediction: SMU 44, Missouri State 10
