The Dallas Cowboys fall to the fourth tier of our initial 2026 NFL Power Rankings, but they have the potential to outplay their ranking more significantly than perhaps any other team on the list.
The TeamFB7 NFL Power Rankings have already covered 16 teams — half the league — and legitimately every one of them has to be considered a contender to some degree.
Yet, only 14 teams will even make the playoffs.
And some of those 14 spots will very likely be filled by teams included in Part 4 today.
Especially after the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots just reached the Super Bowl as preseason 50-1/60-1 longshots to win it all, anything is possible. Well, almost — sorry, Dolphins fans.
Catch up on the first three parts of the series here: Part 1 (1-5) | Part 2 (6-10) | Part 3 (11-16)
And for quick reference, here is our NFL Power Rankings list so far: 1. Los Angeles Rams, 2. Seattle Seahawks, 3. Buffalo Bills, 4. Baltimore Ravens, 5. Kansas City Chiefs, 6. San Francisco 49ers, 7. Philadelphia Eagles, 8. Houston Texans, 9. Denver Broncos, 10. New England Patriots, 11. Chicago Bears, 12. Detroit Lions, 13. Minnesota Vikings, 14. Los Angeles Chargers, 15. Green Bay Packers, 16. Jacksonville Jaguars.
JUMP TO: No. 17 | No. 18 | No. 19 | No. 20 | No. 21
NFL Power Rankings Tier 4: Flawed Teams With Playoff Potential
17. Dallas Cowboys
2025 Finish: 7-9-1, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: The Cowboys had one of the NFL’s most unbalanced teams last season, with an elite collection of offensive playmakers but such a dismal defense that it didn’t really matter.
Dallas remains absolutely loaded offensively in 2026, but will it all be wasted again?
Maybe not.
Give the Cowboys credit for some nice moves both in free agency, via trade and in the draft to bolster the defense and at least raise optimism that they can be significantly improved on that side of the ball.
First and foremost, the team fired former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus after one disastrous season as his unit ranked dead-last in the league in points allowed (30.1 per game) while giving up the third-most yards per game (377.0). To replace him, Dallas poached fast-rising, well-regarded 34-year-old Christian Parker from the Eagles staff as a first-time coordinator.
Then the Cowboys went about addressing each and every level of that defense.
They flipped a 2027 fourth-round draft pick to the Packers for veteran edge rusher Rashan Gary (45 tackles, 7.5 sacks last season) and then used the 23rd overall pick in the draft on UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence (19.5 sacks, 27.5 tackles for loss over the last three seasons).
Only six teams had fewer sacks last season than the Cowboys’ 35 — with a team-leading 8.5 of those coming from now-free agent (and still unsigned) Jadeveon Clowney. Gary for Clowney is a fairly even tradeoff, while the X factor will be how quickly Lawrence can assert himself in the NFL. The team also drafted Alabama EDGE LT Overton in the fifth round.
Dallas was already well set on the interior with returning defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. It adjusted the depth along defensive line, though, to better fit Parker’s 3-4 scheme, trading away productive DT Osa Odighizuwa to the 49ers for a third-round pick while signing former Chargers NT Otito Ogbonnia and former Saints DT Jonathan Bullard.
At linebacker, the team returns Shemar James (team-leading 91 tackles in 14 games) and DeMarvion Overshown (limited to six games after returning from knee surgery) while letting second-leading tackler Kenneth Murray Jr. become a free agent. Dallas then upgraded the unit overall in trading with the 49ers during the draft for Dee Winters (career-high 101 tackles, 8 TFLs, 1 INT in 2025) and using a third-round pick on Michigan LB/EDGE Jaishawn Barham, who will start out as an inside linebacker.
But the most dramatic upgrades came in the secondary.
The Cowboys’ biggest free agent signing was safety Jalen Thompson (3 years, $33 million), who had at least 95 tackles in four of the last five seasons for the Cardinals. They then prioritized the position again in the draft, using the No. 11 overall pick on Ohio State All-American Caleb Downs — an excellent value for the consensus top safety prospect in the draft.
Malik Hooker (52 tackles in 12 games) also returns and former Broncos safety P.J. Locke (a reserve last year after starting in 2024) got a one-year deal from Dallas.
Downs will be a versatile weapon who can be plugged into different spots (like nickel) in the secondary as needed, and if he’s anything like he was in college with the Buckeyes, he could quickly step into a leadership role on the field.
At cornerback, meanwhile, the Cowboys are praying they get a full season and their money’s worth out of DaRon Bland, who has played just 7 and 12 games the last two seasons after earning first-team All-Pro honors in 2023 with a league-leading 9 interceptions (with 5 returned for TDs). Bland, who signed a 4-year, $92-million extension last August, had 1 interception (another pick-6!) and a career-high 73 tackles in those 12 games before season-ending foot surgery.
Across from him, Dallas signed former Rams CB Cobie Durant and drafted Florida’s Devin Moore in the fourth round.
Overall, it was a solid offseason for the Cowboys in overhauling the defensive personnel — enough to at least provide fresh hope the team can get back to the playoffs and make a run if it all meshes well on that side of the ball.
Because, if healthy, Dallas should again be one of the NFL’s top offenses after ranking second last season with 391.9 YPG and seventh in scoring at 27.7 PPG.
Quarterback Dak Prescott may still have something to prove as a postseason performer, but he is as reliable as they come otherwise. He ranked third in the league with 4,552 passing yards in 2025 while throwing for 30 TDs and 10 INTs.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who is back on the franchise tag for 2026 after very much wanting a hefty long-term contract, are one of the game’s great WR duos.
Lamb, with 571 career receptions for 7,416 yards and 41 TDs in six seasons is a top 5 WR in the league. Pickens, after coming over via trade from the Steelers, had a career-best season in his Dallas debut with a 93-1,429-9 line while picking up the slack when Lamb missed three games with injury.
Throw in emerging tight end Jake Ferguson (82-600-8), re-signed running back Javonte Williams (1,201 rushing yards and 11 TDs on 4.8 YPC), a solid offensive line and the NFL’s best kicker in Brandon Aubrey and it’s impossible to count the Cowboys out even after back-to-back deflating seven-win seasons.
It’s all about keeping Prescott healthy — he’s had three injury-marred seasons in the last six years — and seeing those offseason moves pay off on the defensive side.
IF that happens, Dallas could absolutely be a top-10 or better team in 2026.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
2025 Finish: 6-11, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: The Bengals and Cowboys might as well have been mirror images last year.
Elite QB? Check, though Joe Burrow missed nine games with a turf toe injury, exasperating Cincinnati’s struggles.
Elite WR tandem? Check, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 2,258 yards and 19 TDs.
Reliable RB? Check, Chase Brown put up 1,456 combined rushing/receiving yards and 11 TDs.
Atrocious Defense? Most definitely — 31st in the league in yards allowed (380.9/game) and 30th in points allowed (28.9/game).
Overall disappointment? Yup — like anyone trying Cincinnati’s overhyped Skyline Chili for the first time.
The difference, though, is the Bengals did not have a successful offseason or do enough to makeover that defense, so it will again be on Burrow and Co. to overcome that.
And if healthy, he’s good enough to do it — to an extent.
So we’re not writing off the Bengals at all for that reason, but too many glaring questions remain on the defensive side to see this team getting back to the Super Bowl (or anywhere close).
Cincinnati’s big defensive upgrade was trading the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and signing veteran DT Jonathan Allen to join incumbent B.J. Hill (66 tackles, 4 sacks) up front.
That’s all well and good — PFF graded Lawrence 9th out of 134 eligible DTs even though his sack total dropped from 9 to 0.5 last season.
Being strong on the interior of the defensive line isn’t enough, though, if there isn’t strong linebacker and edge rusher play to support it. Again, see the 2025 Dallas Cowboys.
And the Bengals, well …
– They lost their top two edge rushers in free agency with Trey Hendrickson signing a mega deal with the Ravens and Joseph Ossai joining the Jets. To replace them, they grossly overpaid for Seahawks rotational EDGE Boye Mafe, who turned 2 sacks and 4 TFLs last season into a 3-year, $60-million contract from the Bengals. Good luck with that one!
And because they traded away their first-round pick, they had to wait until pick 41 to select from the remaining edge rushers, getting Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell. Maybe that one works out, despite concerns over Howell’s arm length at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Myle Murphy (5 sacks in 2025) returns, and Cincinnati will remain hopeful that 2025 first-round pick Shemar Stewart breaks out after being limited to 8 games (1 sack, 11 tackles) as a rookie. Maybe the unit puts it all together.
– What the Bengals didn’t address at all, though, is having the worst linebacker duo in the league in Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter, whom PFF ranked 83rd and 85th out of 88 qualifying LBs. Both were rookies thrown into the fire last year, but it’s incredible that Cincinnati decided to just run it back.
– Meanwhile, many thought the Bengals would prioritize the secondary, but that amounted to again overspending on a solid but not game-changing free agent in former Chiefs safety Bryan Cook (3 years, $40.25 million) and drafting Washington cornerback Tacario Davis in the third round. They also lost safety Geno Stone (104 tackles, 2 INTs) in free agency, and Davis could be a rotational reserve his first year behind incumbent starters DJ Turner II and Dax Hill.
The bottom line is, it’s hard to see how Cincinnati’s defense is improved enough (or at all) to matter.
But the Bengals could at least be fun on the days Burrow puts the team on his back.
19. Washington Commanders
2025 Finish: 5-12, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: It’s pretty simple to contextualize coach Dan Quinn’s first two seasons with the Commanders.
Absolutely everything went right in 2024, as QB Jayden Daniels won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and Washington reached the NFC championship game. And absolutely everything went wrong in 2025 as Daniels was limited to seven games by multiple injuries (including the gruesome dislocated left non-throwing elbow), top wide receiver Terry McLaurin played just 10 games and the defense fell off a cliff.
That makes the 2026 Commanders especially hard to project. Were both of those seasons outliers in their own way?
We’re about to find out.
Getting Daniels back is obviously the biggest piece of the puzzle to Washington returning to contention. He passed for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs and 9 INTs and rushed for 891 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie, and the best should still be yet to come.
McLaurin started his NFL career with six straight seasons of between 919 and 1,191 yards before a recurring quad injury limited him last year. He should be back to full strength for 2026.
The rest of the wide receiver depth chart is lacking, though, with Washington letting Deebo Samuel depart after one season. Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and former Titans first-round draft bust Treylon Burks are No. 3/4 WRs at best, while third-round pick Antonio Williams (from Clemson) is an interesting addition to the mix. The Commanders should really look to sign one of the remaining veteran free agent WRs, though.
Leading rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt returns after rushing for 805 yards and 8 TDs on 4.6 YPC as a rookie, while former Buccaneers back Rachaad White replaces Chris Rodriguez Jr./Austin Ekeler as the No. 2.
And the Commanders signed former Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo (56-560-2 in a fairly standard season for himself last year).
It’s not a very exciting offensive cast beyond Daniels and McLaurin, to be blunt.
But that’s in large part because the Commanders prioritized rebuilding their defense this offseason, after giving up the most yards in the league (384.0/game) and the sixth-most points (26.5/game).
They signed six defensive free agents to contracts worth at least $6.5 million in average annual value, landing one of the most coveted edge rushers in former Charger Odafe Oweh (4 years, $96 million), former Patriots EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson (1 year, $11 million), former Chiefs LB Leo Chenal (3 years, $24.75 million), former Texans DT Tim Settle (3 years, $23.49 million), former Lions CB Amik Robertson (2 years, $15.02 million) and former Colts S Nick Cross (2 years, $13 million).
Washington then lucked into Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles with the No. 7 pick in the draft, landing the exact missing piece it needed after choosing to let veteran linebacker and leading tackler Bobby Wagner become a free agent while looking to get younger and faster across the defense.
Mission accomplished, at least on paper.
Oweh and Chaisson combined for 15 sacks last season, both having career-best years considering all of Oweh’s sacks came in 12 games after being traded from the Ravens to the Chargers. And both players left their mark in the postseason as well.
So Washington should indeed be much improved defensively under a proven defensive-minded head coach in Quinn. The offense should have a decently high floor if Daniels stays healthy, even if it’s lacking top-end talent at the skill positions beyond McLaurin.
What does that add up to? Certainly better than last season, but beyond that, it’s hard to say.
20. Atlanta Falcons
2025 Finish: 8-9, missed playoffs
2026 Outlook: The Falcons made one of the biggest coaching upgrades of the offseason, moving on from perpetually underwhelming Raheem Morris and moving quickly to hire former Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski once he became available.
Stefanski is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year and led Cleveland to its only two playoff appearances and two of only three winning seasons in the last 23 years. The best thing that could have happened to him was to be let go by the Browns and land with a better team.
In Atlanta, he takes over one of the better collections of offensive skill talent with elite running back Bijan Robinson (2,298 combined rushing/receiving yards and 11 TDs last season), wide receiver Drake London (68-919-7 in just 12 games) and second-team All-Pro tight end Kyle Pitts (88-928-5). Speedy third-round draft pick Zachariah Branch (Georgia) adds a dynamic slot weapon to the offense.
The only hindrance offensively for Atlanta has been at quarterback, and after getting mediocre play from 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. before he tore his ACL midway through last year, the Falcons brought in veteran Tua Tagovailoa after his release from the Dolphins.
(Atlanta went 5-2 down the stretch with Kirk Cousins replacing the injured Penix and the team probably would have made the playoffs if Cousins held the job all season).
Tagovailoa isn’t a top 10 NFL QB, but he’s capable and provides a higher floor for the offense than Penix and should win the starting job.
Stefanski is also an offensive-minded coach and should better maximize Atlanta’s talent than the previous regime did.
The Falcons’ defense was middle-of-the-pack last season, giving up 23.6 PPG (19th) and 326.6 YPG (15th), and Stefanski retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
Atlanta lost its leading tackler in linebacker Kaden Elliss to the Saints in free agency, and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. (a first-round pick last year who had 10.5 sacks as a rookie) faces a likely NFL suspension after facing chargers of aggravated battery/stalking that were dismissed as part of a pre-trial intervention program.
But the Falcons return the core of their defense and used four of their first five draft picks on defense — including second-round Clemson CB Avieon Terrell (to replace departed free agent Dee Alford and pair with his older brother A.J. Terrell Jr.) and Oklahoma LB Kendal Daniels in the fourth round to help with the LB depth around returning starter Divine Deablo (73 tackles, 5 TFLs) and former Texans reserve/former starter Christian Harris.
It’s hard to see the Falcons being much better defensively, especially with Pearce’s status uncertain, but this is a team that should be able to lean on a top-10 offense most weeks.
The NFC South is underwhelming overall, and the Falcons have as good a chance as any to win the division after finishing in a three-way tie with the Panthers and Buccaneers last year (and losing the tiebreaker).
The upgrades at head coach and quarterback alone could make the difference in 2026.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
2025 Finish: 10-7, won AFC North, lost in wildcard round
2026 Outlook: The suspense is over — to whatever extent it ever even existed. QB Aaron Rodgers is back for what he says will be his final NFL season, reuniting with his former Packers coach Mike McCarthy.
While it does seem that Rodgers Fatigue has set in across the NFL and its audience, the future Hall of Famer is absolutely still a much better option than untested second-year QB Will Howard. Rodgers passed for 3,322 yards, 24 TDs and 7 INTs in his Steelers debut, getting the team to the playoffs.
Pittsburgh should be better offensively after acquiring Michael Pittman Jr. from the Colts to pair at WR with DK Metcalf (59-850-6 in 15 games). Pittman, who averaged 89 receptions for 950 yards over the last five seasons, is a substantial upgrade over the rest of the Steelers’ WR depth chart.
Those two and tight end Pat Freiermuth (41-486-4) are a solid collection of targets even if the Steelers got beat to the punch on desired first-round draft target Makai Lemon (as the Eagles traded up ahead of Pittsburgh to take the USC WR). Second-round pick Germie Bernard (from Alabama) is a much less exciting option.
Jaylen Warren (958 rushing yards and 6 TDs on 4.5 YPC) is back at running back, while No. 2 RB/high-volume passing target Kenneth Gainwell has been replaced with Rico Dowdle, who is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons for the Cowboys and Panthers.
But perhaps most exciting is moving on from former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s plodding scheme. McCarthy hired Brian Angelichio, the Vikings’ passing game coordinator the last three years, to guide what should be a more aggressive offense.
The area of concern, though, is the offensive line. The Steelers lost stalwart left guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency (to the Cardinals) and will have to go either with in-house option Spencer Anderson, former Cowboys reserve Brock Hoffman or third-round pick Gennings Dunker (Iowa).
Worse, starting left tackle Broderick Jones still has no timeline for return from the neck injury that ended his 2025 season in Week 12. That may mean moving right tackle Troy Fautanu to the left side and thrusting first-round pick Max Iheanachor in his spot.
Defensively, Pittsburgh returns its top seven tacklers and most of its defensive core for that matter — including veteran standouts in edge rusher T.J. Watt and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, linebackers Patrick Queen (120 tackles), Payton Wilson (126) and Malik Harrison (41 tackles in 11 games) and top cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey.
Getting a full season from the eight-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Watt (just 7 sacks in 14 games last year) is the X-factor, while the Steelers’ big free agent additions were former Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean, former Titans defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph and former Bears safety Jaquan Brisker.
Overall, the defense should be better with those moves and new coordinator Patrick Graham, who came over from the Raiders, and the offense should be more aggressive overall with McCarthy/Angelichio.
The Steelers’ ceiling feels a little higher than it did last year — but not quite to the level of Super Bowl contention.
Longtime head coach Mike Tomlin may be gone, but the Steelers’ prolonged rut of early playoff exits may continue nonetheless as this looks like another good but not great Pittsburgh team.
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