A blinding blizzard, Sam Darnold outdueling the likely league MVP in late January, a fateful fourth-down decision from a future Hall of Fame coach that will haunt a fan base, a muffed punt that changed everything, the two best wide receivers in the league showing out in the spotlight, and ultimately, a classic Super Bowl matchup renewed.
The NFL’s conference championship Sunday was thrilling theater with the New England Patriots winning 10-7 over the Broncos in snowy Denver and the Seattle Seahawks outlasting the Los Angeles Rams, 31-27.
And we have some thoughts about what all transpired.
Quickly, though, we’d be remiss to not at least note that we’ve now picked the outright winner in 11 of the 12 playoff games so far while landing pretty close on the victory margins Sunday.
We picked the Patriots to win 20-16, not knowing Snowmageddon would hit in the third quarter and stifle any semblance of offensive football. So all things considered, we’ll take the W on being one point off on the final margin, despite being a little high on the point total.
And our pick for the Seahawks to win 27-24 was right there as well, again one point off on the margin and just a few points low on each side.
GO TO: Part I | Part II | Part III | Part IV | Part V
Another Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl
One of the most classic Super Bowl finishes of this or any era was, of course, 11 years ago (Super Bowl XLIX for those that like the Roman numeral thing).
Patriots 28, Seahawks 24.
The Malcolm Butler game.
After a 33-yard completion from Russell Wilson to Jermaine Kearse, the Seahawks had first-and-goal from the 5-yard line. A 4-yard run from Marshawn Lynch took it to the 1 with the clock ticking under 30 seconds before the next snap.
Instead of ramming prime “Beast Mode” Lynch up the middle again (and again, with a timeout still in hand), Seattle dialed up a pass play … that now lives in infamy.
A 2019 NFL.com ranking of the league’s 100 greatest plays of all-time put Butler’s Super Bowl-sealing interception at No. 5 — the highest-ranked defensive play.
That game shaped legacies.
It denied the Seahawks and coach Pete Carroll back-to-back Super Bowl championships, and that legendary team with its Legion of Boom defense would never get back to the Big Game.
Meanwhile, it gave the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots their first Super Bowl title in 10 years after two SB losses in the preceding decade. It was the fourth championship overall for the New England dynasty that would go on to win an unprecedented six overall, including the final three in the span of five years.
Now 11 years later, the Seahawks have one of the best defenses in football again while the Patriots again have one of the league’s elite coach-QB tandems in Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye as they meet again in the Big Game.
One has nothing to do with the other, of course, but it’s a fun footnote to the matchup.
Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite, as of Monday, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Darnold Defeats Doubters
Sam Darnold was considered a draft bust after the New York Jets took him No. 3 overall in 2018 and traded him away three years later to the Carolina Panthers. The Jets went 13-35 in that span while Darnold had 45 touchdown passes and 39 interceptions in 38 games.
He wasn’t much better in Carolina, tossing 16 TDs and 16 INTs in 18 games (17 starts) and looked on his way to becoming a journeyman backup. He landed in San Francisco on a one-year contract to play behind Brock Purdy, started one game during that 2023 season and then moved onto Minnesota on another one-year contract.
Darnold was initially set to compete with rookie J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in 2024, but McCarthy sustained a season-ending injury in the preseason and Darnold went on to lead the Vikings to 14 wins while delivering a career-best season. He completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs.
But the Vikings let him leave as a free agent after the season, in part because they had invested a high first-round pick in McCarthy but also because of how that season finished and remaining questions about whether Darnold could be a true big-game QB.
Darnold cratered in a Week 18 showdown with the Lions with the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, completing just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He didn’t throw any interceptions, but he was so off the mark and missed open receivers throughout the game in a deflating 31-9 loss.
The next week, he struggled again in a 27-9 playoff loss to the Rams, throwing for 245 yards and a TD but with an interception and while taking 9 sacks — including a sack-fumble that was returned for a pivotal Los Angeles TD.
The doubts about Darnold persisted even at times this season with the Seahawks, despite leading another 14-win season.
In one of the big early NFC West showdowns, Darnold threw 4 INTs in a 21-19 loss to the Rams. He had 0 TD passes in four of the final eight games. He was only asked to throw the ball 17 times (for 124 yards and a TD) in the Seahawks’ divisional round blowout of the 49ers, as the defense and rushing attack led the way.
It was still fair to at least wonder if he could deliver on the biggest stages when truly needed.
It was until Sunday night, at least.
Darnold was divine in outdueling MVP favorite Matthew Stafford, completing 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs.
His second pass of the game was a deep downfield dime to Rashid Shaheed for 51 yards to set up an early touchdown and quick Seattle lead.
He hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 42 yards in the final minute of the first half and then a 14-yard touchdown to his top target for a 17-13 lead.
Darnold was 5 of 6 for 53 yards and a 13-yard TD to Cooper Kupp on third down late in the third quarter to push the lead to 31-20.
Ultimately, Super Bowls determine legacies, and how Darnold performs vs. the Patriots in two weeks in the next biggest game of his career will be what shapes his stature in the sport.
But it’s quite the story already.
From draft bust to low-cost backup QB rental to one-and-done in Minnesota after a rough finish to, now, starring in the Super Bowl and becoming the first quarterback to ever win 30 games (including playoffs) in a two-season span with different teams. (Credit FOX Sports with that fun factoid.)
Second-Guessing Sean Payton
Broncos coach Sean Payton is a certain future Hall-of-Famer. He’s the only coach to win a Super Bowl with the Saints and, given the trajectory of what he’s building in Denver, he could well become the first coach to ever win Super Bowls with two franchises.
But that potential history will have to wait at least another year, and in the meantime Payton is going to be fairly second-guessed for a fateful decision from that narrow loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
It was early in the game, and to be fair, nobody could have known just how dramatically the weather would change during the second half, from cold but dry to full-on blizzard by the end of the third quarter. By that point, scoring was almost impossible with both teams barely able to even advance the ball and field goal attempts looking practically hopeless.
This time-lapse video is absolutely wild.
These were the offensive series in the fourth quarter for both teams (starting with Denver and the final play of the third quarter): 3 plays for 3 yards and a punt, 4 plays for 10 yards and a punt, 6 plays for 17 yards and a punt, 3 plays for -1 yard and a punt, 4 plays for 5 yards and a blocked 45-yard Wil Lutz FG attempt for the Broncos, 3 plays for 1 yard and a punt, 2 plays for 1 yard and an interception, 6 plays for 14 yards to run out the clock.
(Denver had only one other drive in the second half, going three-and-out earlier in the third quarter.)
All while New England held onto a 10-7 lead — the most insurmountable 3-point lead in recent memory.
Which leads us back to Payton’s fateful first half decision that received heightened scrutiny in hindsight.
It figured that points would be at a premium for Denver, playing with unproven backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who had never thrown a postseason pass before Sunday — or any NFL pass since 2023 for that matter — and was making just the fifth start of his six-year career.
To his credit, Stidham started strong with a 52-yard strike to Marvin Mims Jr. on Denver’s second possession and a subsequent 6-yard TD pass to Courtland Sutton.
But even still, it stood to reason that Denver’s defense would have to be the difference-maker and any such big plays from Stidham considered a bonus.
That could be used as either a case for or against Payton’s decision to bypass an easy 31-yard field goal and likely 10-0 lead and instead go for it on fourth-and-1 from the 14 early in the second quarter.
In the moment, before the play, CBS color analyst Tony Romo questioned the decision.
The play call to have Stidham fake a pitch and bootleg was blown up immediately by New England’s own fierce defense.
If Denver had instead gotten the three points there, obviously, it would have been a tied game once the snow hit, rather than the Broncos futilely trying to rally in almost impossible conditions.
So the case for Payton’s decision would be the logic that Denver probably won’t get many red zone opportunities all game and needs to maximize them. The case against is more obvious — take a double-digit lead at home and trust your elite defense over your backup QB.
It was a tough call — and ultimately the wrong one in the end.
“There’s always regrets,” Payton said after the game. “Yeah, I mean, look — I felt like here we are fourth-and-1, we felt close enough that … and it’s also a call you make based on the team you’re playing and what you’re watching on the other side of the ball. So, yeah, there’ll always be second thoughts.”
Let’s be fair — this isn’t some all-time blunder (like passing the ball on second-and-goal from the 1 with the Super Bowl on the line while wasting Marshawn Lynch in the backfield). The loss is a major missed opportunity for the Broncos, to get that close to a Super Bowl, and that failed fourth down certainly factored significantly into the ending.
In the moment, it was a toss-up call that can be reasoned either way. In the end, though, it’s like dropping raw meat into a tank of piranhas for the NFL talking heads to fill their Monday TV segments.
Payton will have to live with that one for a while — as will Broncos fans.
The more questionable decision, honestly, might be the one that ultimately ended the game, having Stidham take a downfield shot in the snow on second-and-9 with more than 2 minutes still to play.
The ultimate blame there goes on Stidham for a badly underthrown pass to a receiver (Mims) who wasn’t even open that absolutely deserved to be intercepted by Christian Gonzalez.
Surely, the play call wasn’t for Stidham to chuck it downfield at all costs — the quarterback needs to make a better read there. But it can certainly be questioned as to how wise it was to even trust a QB playing his first game in over two years to make a poised and processed decision in a pressure-packed moment like that.
Given the heightened degree of difficulty on any field goal attempt in that weather, it was reasonable to assume the Broncos needed some chunk plays to get as close as possible or reach the end zone outright. But targeting one of the top cornerbacks in football with an inexperienced backup QB and the season on the line — not so reasonable.
With all of that said, the failed fourth down decision might well have been moot and that final interception never manifested if not for the play that truly cost the Broncos this game.
Under pressure late in the second quarter with Denver still holding that 7-0 lead, Stidham backpedaled from a charging pass rush and tried to get rid of the ball too late. After initially being ruled a forward pass (and likely intentional grounding), it was changed to a backward pass with New England recovering the fumble. The officiating error negated what should have been a Patriots defensive touchdown on the return, but nonetheless they scored two plays later on Maye’s 6-yard keeper for their only touchdown of the game.
Ultimately, that was the difference-maker as the Patriots only got into the red zone one other time and only got inside the Broncos’ 45 two other times.
Denver got exactly the defensive performance it needed to win this game and likely would have if not for that Stidham stumble.
Home Run Hires
It’s still hiring season in the NFL with three teams seeking head coaches — the Browns, Cardinals and Raiders — and this Super Bowl matchup underscores just how pivotal or punishing these decisions can be.
The Patriots opened the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, per BetMGM, while the Seahawks had 60-1 odds.
Per Covers.com, which tracks the history of such things, this is the first time two teams with preseason odds that low have met in the Super Bowl. The next most unlikely matchup in that context was the Super Bowl to cap the 1981 season, when the 49ers (50-1 odds) beat the Bengals (60-1), while the biggest longshot to ever win the Super Bowl was the 1999 Rams at 150-1.
Both New England and Seattle nailed their coaching hires and saw their fortunes swing dramatically and immediately.
The Patriots were 4-13 each of the last two seasons, hired Vrabel, brought back offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to help develop Maye leading into his second year and, voila, a 14-3 season, three playoff wins and now a Super Bowl appearance.
The Seahawks never bottomed out under former coach Pete Carroll, going 7-10, 9-8 and 9-8 in his final three seasons, but they certainly weren’t on the cusp of a Super Bowl the way things were going.
Seattle made the decision to move on from the greatest coach in franchise history and hired a first-time head coach in Mike Macdonald, who had been the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. After a 10-7 debut, Macdonald has rebuilt the Seahawks’ identity — once again as an elite defensive team with a well-rounded offense that leans on the run but also with a potent downfield passing attack (sound familiar to those most recent Seattle Super Bowl teams?). The Seahawks earned the NFC’s top seed with a 14-3 regular season and now a spot back in the Big Game.
The Bears with Ben Johnson and the Jaguars with Liam Coen similarly shifted their franchises overnight with first-year head coaches.
Meanwhile, some teams just never get the biggest decision right.
There’s no reason the Raiders have to be perpetually hopeless. There are very obvious reasons why they are, though.
Just look at the team’s coaching hires since its last Super Bowl appearance after the 2002 season: Norv Turner (two seasons), Art Shell (one and done), Lane Kiffin (fired during second season), Tom Cable (two and a half seasons), Hue Jackson (one and done), Dennis Allen (fired during third season), Jack Del Rio (three seasons), Jon Gruden (resigned under controversy during fourth season), Josh McDaniels (fired during second season), Antonio Pierce (one and a half seasons), Pete Carroll (one and done as the oldest head coach in league history).
Not one of those hires, outside of perhaps Gruden in the moment, was particularly inspiring. The rest of the list is retreads, lackluster coaches who weren’t highly coveted by other teams, and a misguided move to bring a coach turning 74 years old out of retirement.
Every NFL team is at all times two key decisions away from contending — head coach and quarterback. The second part of that equation does require some good fortune to get right, but the first part is a lot more straightforward.
Take the Patriots again, for example. Two years ago, they hired Jerod Mayo. He had never been a coordinator and his entire coaching career consisted of five years as the team’s inside linebackers coach. His 2024 Patriots looked unprepared and disorganized, went 4-13 and he was fired.
To reset, New England hired another of its former star linebackers, but this time it went with a former NFL Coach of the Year winner, a proven head coach who had taken an overachieving Titans team to the AFC championship game and three straight playoff appearances and a coach who was widely considered the best available on the market.
Voila, indeed.
Parting Thoughts
Despite leading the NFL in receiving yards — 1,793 on 119 catches with 10 TDs in the regular season — and being a former first-round draft pick from Ohio State, it doesn’t feel like the casual football fan thinks of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the same tier as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb.
Maybe Sunday night will change that — or what JSN does in two weeks in the Super Bowl.
The third-year receiver was sublime for the Seahawks in the NFC championship game, hauling in 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a TD.
This one-handed catch in the first quarter deserves a closer look.
Smith-Njigba, the 20th overall pick in the 2023 draft, has gotten better in each of his three NFL seasons, from 63 catches for 628 yards and 4 TDs as a rookie to 100-1,130-6 last year and then this true breakout. He had nine 100-yard games in the regular season and was as reliable as any wideout in the league, topping at least 72 yards in all but one game (a 26-0 blowout of the Vikings in which the Seahawks only passed for 128 yards).
Credit the change from Geno Smith to Darnold perhaps, or just an elite talent putting in the work to maximize his potential, but Smith-Njigba certainly deserves to be mentioned among the best at the position now.
The same can be said for the star receiver on the other sideline Sunday night.
Rams star Puka Nacua had 9 catches for 165 yards and a TD and finished the playoffs with 24 catches for 332 yards and 2 TDs (plus a rushing TD) in three games. This after finishing just behind Smith-Njigba in the regular season with 1,715 yards on a league-best 129 receptions and 10 TDs (plus 1 rushing).
With that, he joined former teammate Cooper Kupp as the only receivers to top 2,000 yards in a season including playoffs. (Smith-Njigba needs just 35 yards in the Super Bowl to join the club).
This too …
It was quite a show watching two of the very best at the position play to the peak of their powers Sunday night.
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Rams QB Matthew Stafford may get his first MVP award at age 37 years old — the winner will be announced Feb. 5 — but he doesn’t get the storybook ending to his superlative season.
Stafford was nonetheless excellent Sunday night, completing 22 of 35 passes for 374 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs, and AP reporter Josh Dubow came up with this incredible stat.
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Rams receiver Davante Adams might be an even bigger tough-luck case, though.
Adams, who had 4 catches for 89 yards and a TD, is now 0-5 all-time in NFC championship games, still chasing his first shot at a Super Bowl.
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But the player to truly feel bad for from the weekend is Rams punt returner Xavier Smith, who muffed a punt in the third quarter that gave Seattle the ball at the Los Angeles 17. The Seahawks scored on the next play to go up 24-13 in a momentum-swinging sequence that impacted the outcome perhaps more than any other moment.
Smith has been with the Rams since going undrafted out of Florida A&M in 2023.
