The first weekend of the NFL playoffs featured more fourth quarter lead changes — 12 — than any full postseason in league history.
The second weekend saw half of the four games go to overtime.
Overall, six of the 10 playoff games so far have been decided by four or fewer points.
Caleb Williams made one of the most iconic touchdown throws in recent playoff history and his team didn’t even win. Matthew Stafford is turning in a career year at 37 years old — and potentially lifting his legacy into a new tier — while following an MVP-caliber regular-season with game-winning drives at the end of both Rams playoff wins so far. The Patriots might again have the league’s best QB-coach combo and the start of another limitless run.
The Seahawks again have the league’s best defense. Sean Payton is looking to become the first head coach to ever win Super Bowls with two franchises but will now need backup QB Jarrett Stidham to follow the unlikely paths of Nick Foles and Jeff Hostetler.
March Madness will get its turn, but the NFL is setting the bar for dramatic sports theater in 2026 — setting it high — and it continues Sunday with the conference championship games.
The Patriots and Broncos kick it off Sunday in the AFC showdown, followed by the Rams vs. Seahawks Part 3 in the NFC.
Let’s breakdown both games and make more fearless predictions (click here to see how well we’ve actually done so far this postseason).
(Game times ET; point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
3 p.m. Sunday on CBS/Paramount+
Many NFL fans still have latent Patriots fatigue from the six Super Bowl championships of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era and may have trouble accepting the reality that New England already has another elite coach and MVP-caliber QB who are one win away from reaching the Big Game in their first year together.
Mike Vrabel deserves the NFL Coach of the Year award, which is really saying something given the cast of candidates this season. But he does, plain and simple.
Again, separate this from the Patriots of the previous two decades and remember that New England went 4-13 each of the last two seasons and looked as dysfunctional as any team in the league last season under one-and-done head coach Jerod Mayo.
Before the season, BetMGM set the Patriots’ odds to win the Super Bowl at 80-1. Only eight teams in the league had worse odds. Only one of them made the playoffs (the Panthers, despite a losing record).
New England went 14-3, won the AFC East, went 8-0 on the road, has won 15 of its last 16 games overall (and held two fourth quarter leads in the lone loss in that span) and is responsible for two of the four lopsided results in these playoffs with a 16-3 win over the Chargers and 28-16 takedown of the Texans.
Even Belichick needed two seasons to turn around his version of the Patriots and get to the Super Bowl.
But, of course, there is a major obstacle still in the Patriots’ path to that desired destination.
The Broncos also went 14-3, claimed the AFC’s No. 1 seed and got past Josh Allen’s Bills in the divisional round with a 33-30 overtime win.
It should have been the most celebratory moment for the franchise in a decade, but the glow of that momentous victory was dimmed significantly with the stunning news postgame that quarterback Bo Nix mysteriously broke his ankle along the way despite finishing the game and smiling for an on-field interview.
Payton has indicated that Nix broke his ankle three plays before the game-winning field goal on while taking a two-yard loss.
Nix stayed in the game, though, and threw a deep incompletion to Marvin Mims that drew a pass interference penalty and moved Denver to the Buffalo 8. He then took a kneel-down to position the ball for the game-winning field goal.
Some wonder if it wasn’t on that snap that he sustained the injury.
Regardless, he’s done for the season the Broncos are left to hope Stidham, a career backup who has thrown for 1,422 yards, 8 TDs and 8 INTs over six seasons with three teams can keep their Super Bowl hopes on track.
Stidham will look to join the list of backup quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, but his is a unique case.
Earl Morrall is nearly on the list twice, including finishing off the 1970 Baltimore Colts’ championship, but he only took over in the second quarter of Super Bowl V when Johnny Unitas was forced out of the game with a rib injury. Morrall later started the final nine regular-season games and first two playoff games of the Dolphins’ undefeated 1972 season, but starter Bob Griese returned for the Super Bowl. Morrall started full or nearly full seasons for the Steelers, Lions, Giants and Colts before all that, though.
Roger Staubach didn’t become the 1971 Cowboys’ full-fledged starting QB until Week 8 before going on to win the Super Bowl, but he was just launching an eventual Hall of Fame career at that point. Ditto for Terry Bradshaw taking over in Week 7 of the 1974 seasons for the Steelers.
Jim Plunkett is also technically on the list for leading the 1980 Raiders to a Super Bowl title while taking over in Week 5 after starter Dan Pastorini broke his leg, but Plunkett had been a starter for the Patriots and 49ers before joining the Raiders. Ditto for Doug Williams, who started just two regular-season games for the 1987 Redskins but was chosen to start over Jay Schroeder in the playoffs and went on to win the Super Bowl, but Williams had been a starter for the Buccaneers for most of five seasons previously.
Kurt Warner was the backup for the 1999 Rams until a preseason injury to Trent Green launched Warner on the way to a Hall of Fame career and Super Bowl title that season.
Trent Dilfer replaced Tony Banks for the 2000 Ravens midway through the regular season and finished out as the starter for their Super Bowl run.
Tom Brady took over the 2001 Patriots after a Week 2 injury to Drew Bledsoe and won the first of his seven Super Bowls.
And Nick Foles is the most recent example, stepping in for injured starter Carson Wentz on the 2017 Eagles in Week 14 and leading Philadelphia past Brady and the Pats for the Super Bowl. But Foles had been named the starting quarterback entering previous seasons for the Eagles and Rams.
But really, there is only one true example of a career backup stepping in as an injury replacement and winning it all.
Jeff Hostetler, who had just two starts in his first five seasons in the NFL, took the reins for the 1990 Giants after Phil Simms broke his foot in Week 15 of that season and led New York to a Super Bowl title.
Stidham has made four starts — two with the Raiders in 2022 and two with the Broncos in 2023 — while going 1-3 in those games and has never thrown a postseason pass. For that matter, he hasn’t thrown a pass in any game since 2023.
Ideally, the Broncos would lean heavily on their rushing attack, but running backs RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for just 41 yards on 10 carries last week. The unit has been better — 115 rushing yards per game over the previous three contests — and will need to be.
But most of all, Denver will hope its defense, which ranked second in the regular season in fewest yards allowed (278.2 per game), can bounce back and lead the way after giving up 449 yards to the Bills last week. That was the second-most yards the Broncos yielded all season and only the third time an opponent had topped 400 yards.
The challenge doesn’t get any easier either.
Maye passed for 4,394 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs (with 450 rushing yards and 4 TDs) in the regular season and has thrown for 447 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs with 76 rushing yards in two playoff games so far.
New England also has a stingy defense, giving up the fourth-fewest points in the regular season (18.8 per game) and eight-fewest yards (295.2 YPG). The Patriots have notched 9 sacks and 6 turnovers in their two playoff games so far.
New England will be missing sack leader Harold Landry, who has been ruled out with a knee injury while starting wide receiver Mack Hollins, who has been out since December with an abdomen injury, is listed as questionable.
Denver could be without receiver Troy Franklin (hamstring) but gets starting center Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) back for the first time since Week 16.
The weather is another factor to consider as Denver is expected to have a high of 25 degrees Sunday with a strong probability of snow.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 16
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
6:30 p.m. Sunday on FOX
The NFC West foes clashed twice in the regular season with those games being decided by a combined 3 points, including one of the wildest finishes of the year.
The Rams won the first meeting 21-19 at home back on Nov. 16 despite being outgained 414 yards to 249. The difference was four Sam Darnold interceptions and a missed 61-yard Jason Myers field goal try at the end of regulation. QB Matthew Stafford wasn’t exactly overwhelming for the Rams in that game either, though, completing 15 of 28 passes for just 130 yards with 2 TDs.
The rematch on Dec. 18 in Seattle was quite different.
The Rams went up 30-14 early in the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks got a 58-yard punt return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed to spark a comeback.
After Darnold hit AJ Barner for a 26-yard TD less than 2 minutes later, Seattle tied it up on the most controversial 2-point conversion maybe ever.
Darnold’s pass went off Rams’ edge rusher Jared Verse’s hand and helmet and trickled into the end zone. Everyone on the field thought it was an incomplete pass. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet picked up the ball in the end zone without realizing it would count as a fumble recovery and the game-tying 2-point conversion when the officials eventually ruled it a backward pass.
The game went into overtime at 30-30, and Los Angeles struck first with a 41-yard TD pass from Stafford to Puka Nacua, but again Seattle couldn’t be put away. The Seahawks drove 65 yards in 9 plays and scored on a 4-yard TD pass from Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba — then opted to go for the win and took the game on a 2-point conversion pass from Darnold to TE Eric Saubert for a 38-37 victory.
So what will Round 3 bring?
That game was an outlier in a run of defensive dominance for the Seahawks, who have allowed an average of just 7.3 PPG in their other six games going back to Nov. 30 and finished the regular season leading the NFL in holding opponents to 17.2 PPG.
That stifling stretch continued with a 41-6 playoff win over the 49ers last week in which Seattle allowed just 236 yards and 3 TDs.
Second-year coach Mike Macdonald, the former Ravens defensive coordinator, has put his stamp on the Seahawks in a 14-win season in which they went from 60-1 preseason odds to win the Super Bowl to the betting favorite entering the playoffs.
The Rams were next on that list, so this is everything anyone could have wanted out of the NFC Championship game.
This one will also shape a couple quarterback’s legacies.
Stafford is the favorite to win his first MVP award at age 37 after passing for 4,707 yards, 46 TDs and 8 INTs during the season. He then led the game-winning drive with a 19-yard TD toss to TE Colby Parkinson for a 34-31 come-from-behind win over the Panthers in the wild-card round, followed by another game-winning drive of 54 yards in overtime to setup the decisive field goal in a 20-17 victory over the Bears last week.
Stafford has won one Super Bowl with the Rams and if he adds a second while collecting the MVP award, he vaults into a higher tier among all-time great QBs.
And he’ll need a special performance — along with star WRs Puka Nacua (129 catches for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs in the regular season) and Davante Adams (60-789-14) and reliable RB Kyren Williams (1,252 rushing yards, 13 total TDs) — to overcome this Seattle defense.
For Darnold, he is still trying to answer doubters and prove he can win on the big stage. After a bad performance in his first playoff start last year that helped seal his departure from Minnesota after just one (otherwise excellent) season, Darnold earned his first playoff win last week but wasn’t asked to do much (12 of 17 for 124 yards and a TD) while the defense and running game carried the Seahawks.
Darnold will surely need to do more than that to beat the Rams after factoring prominently into the outcome of the first two meetings — for worse and better.
In addition to that elite Seattle defense, he also has a strong supporting cast on offense with Smith-Njigba leading the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards this season (on 119 receptions with 10 TDs) and the running back duo of Kenneth Walker III (1,027 rushing yards and 5 TDs) and Charbonnet (730-12). Walker led the way in the divisional round with 116 rushing yards and 3 TDs (plus 29 receiving yards).
The only major game status situation to monitor is Rams OLB Byron Young (82 tackles, 12 sacks) is listed as questionable with a knee injury.
Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 24
