Crazy as it sounds, the most memorable play from the NFL divisional playoffs last weekend came from a team that didn’t win and by a quarterback who threw a fateful overtime interception.
But nobody who watched that Rams-Bears overtime classic Sunday night will ever forget seeing in real time Caleb Williams take the snap on fourth-and-4 from the Rams’ 14 with 27 seconds left, take off running backward to his own 40 while being chased by a trio of pass rushers, set his feet just enough to heave the ball to the end zone, and connect with tight end Cole Kmet for an against-all-odds game-tying touchdown.
Williams and wide receiver DJ Moore would get their signals crossed on a downfield pass in overtime, as Kam Curl picked it off and the Rams drove 54 yards the other way for a 42-yard Harrison Mevis game-winning field goal.
But Williams, the second-year former No. 1 overall pick, capped a second straight dramatic weekend of NFL playoff action with yet another indelible moment.
The divisional round wasn’t quite to the level of the wild-card weekend as only half of the four games went down to the wire this time, but those two took the suspense all the way to overtime to make up for it — with a dash of controversy and an unexpected postgame plot twist as well.
Before we get into all that and break down the winners and losers of the week, let’s again take stock of how our pregame score predictions fared.
GO TO: NFL Winners of the Week | NFL Losers of the Week
We nailed the outright winners in all four games and are nine for 10 in that regard so far this playoffs, and our expected score margins were mostly on the mark for all but one divisional game.
Starting out Saturday, we were spot-on in hitting the margin of victory for the Broncos but a little light on total points, forecasting a 24-21 duel with the Bills in Denver. The Broncos actually won 33-30 after a back-and-forth fourth quarter, a game-swinging interception in overtime on the most controversial moment of the weekend (we’ll get to it!) and ultimately a 23-yard Wil Lutz field goal to win.
Our score pick for the next game was not so on-point, however. The thinking was with left tackle Trent Williams back for San Francisco this time, the 49ers would hold up much better against Seattle’s defense, Brock Purdy would bounce back after that humbling defeat two weeks earlier to those Seahawks and it would be a competitive clash between the NFC West foes. Seattle 27-21 was the pick. Seahawks 41-6 was the reality. Ah well.
We were right in the pocket again to start Sunday, though, calling for a 24-17 Patriots win over the Texans, largely based on concerns over Houston QB C.J. Stroud after his rough wild-card performance. Well, that proved astute as Stroud threw 4 interceptions in the first half and New England closed out a 28-16 victory. Pretty close!
And while we expected more points from the Rams and Bears, penciling in a 37-32 Los Angeles win, we’ll call this a W with the Rams securing that 20-17 overtime victory.
That leaves just four teams standing heading into the conference championship games on Sunday with the Patriots at the Broncos in the AFC and the Rams at the Seahawks in the NFC.
But first, let’s get to the winners and losers from the last week.
NFL Winners Of The Week
Mike Macdonald’s Superlative Seahawks Defense
For all the praise deservedly paid this season to the trio of impactful new head coaches — New England’s Mike Vrabel, Chicago’s Ben Johnson and Jacksonville’s Liam Coen — the previous coaching cycle featured some home run hires as well.
None better than Seattle’s Mike Macdonald (with respect to his former boss Jim Harbaugh and the job he’s done with the Los Angeles Chargers).
Seattle has looked like the best team in football the last month with a defense that might just be a befitting successor to the franchise’s famed Legion of Doom from last decade.
And it even has its own nickname.
Macdonald spent six years as a defensive assistant for the Baltimore Ravens, briefly left one Harbaugh brother for the other to serve as Michigan’s defensive coordinator in 2001, returned to the Ravens as DC in 2022-23 and has won 24 regular-season games plus a playoff victory in his first two seasons as a head coach now.
Seattle has been good all season, earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye, but that defense has been downright dominant for most of the last two months.
It started with a 26-0 win over the Vikings (162 yards allowed) followed by a 37-9 road win over the Falcons (274) and an 18-16 victory over the Colts (220). Then came the outlier of this run, that wild 38-37 overtime win over the Rams, before another stretch of stifling defense the last month.
There was a 27-10 road win over the Panthers (only 139 yards allowed), the 13-3 win over the 49ers (173 yards) in the regular-season finale to clinch the No. 1 seed and then the 41-6 playoff win Saturday vs. the Niners (236 yards).
Seattle allowed the fewest points in the regular season (17.2 per game) and sixth-fewest yards (285.6 per game), and pairs that with a capable quarterback in Sam Darnold (albeit just 1-1 in career playoff games and was only asked to attempt 17 passes last week), an elite wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njiba (NFL-leading 1,793 receiving yards during the season) and a strong rushing attack that got 116 yards and 3 TDs from Kenneth Walker III last weekend.
Seattle is a 2.5-point home favorite Sunday vs. the Rams after the teams split their regular-season meetings.
More to the point, though, the Seahawks look here to stay under Macdonald, underscoring just how much hinges on these ongoing coaching hires.
Patriots’ Paved Path
Look, we’re taking nothing away from the Patriots’ incredible season. Nothing.
Vrabel is the real deal. Anyone who follows the NFL (except maybe the Tennessee Titans) knew he was one of the league’s best coaches during his tenure in Tennessee despite being fired after the 2023 season.
I mean …
Ditto for QB Drake Maye, who in just his second season is deservedly one of the two favorites for the MVP with Rams veteran QB Matthew Stafford.
The Patriots are legit Super Bowl contenders and one of the greatest one-year turnarounds in the NFL since … their first Super Bowl team of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Era more than two decades ago?
Vrabel took over a franchise coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and immediately flipped it to 14-3 in his first year, followed by two playoff wins and counting. It’s also a great story that one of the more memorable players from that Belichick dynasty is now the coach reviving the franchise.
All of that said, we do just have to mention that the Patriots have fallen into a remarkable run of favorable opposing quarterback matchups this season.
After a 1-2 start, before ripping through most of the rest of the schedule with the only other loss coming to the Bills and Josh Allen, here are the other QBs the Patriots beat along the way:
Carolina’s Bryce Young, the one outlier Allen in a statement win over the Bills in the teams’ first meeting, New Orleans’ soon-to-be-benched Spencer Rattler, Tennessee rookie Cam Ward, Cleveland’s soon-to-be-benched rookie Dillon Gabriel, Atlanta’s up-and-down Michael Penix Jr., Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield just before his season fell off a cliff, the New York Jets’ Justin Fields in his last game before being benched, Cincinnati backup Joe Flacco, New York Giants rookie Jaxson Dart, Baltimore as Lamar Jackson left early to be replaced by Tyler Huntley for most of the game, Jets undrafted rookie Brady Cook, Miami rookie Quinn Ewers, Chargers star Justin Herbert but behind the worst offensive line in the league and then Houston’s C.J. Stroud in the midst of the worst two-week playoff meltdown in recent memory.
And now … Denver backup Jarrett Stidham this week.
Bo Nix led the Broncos to that thrilling overtime win over the Bills, played the whole game, threw for 279 yards and 3 TDs (1 INT), did a postgame interview on the field and then …
We’ll have more to say on the Broncos’ side of this, but as for the Patriots, their path to the Super Bowl continues to unfold before them.
Stidham, who started his career in New England, has completed just 59.4% of his 197 career pass attempts for 1,422 yards, 8 TDs and 8 INTs. He has no postseason experience.
New England is a 4.5-point favorite on the road, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Caleb Williams’ Ascending Star Status
Yes, back to Williams for a moment.
The former No. 1 overall pick led the Bears to seven fourth-quarter comeback wins this season — the most of any QB under the age of 25 in NFL history — including in the wild-card round when Chicago scored 25 points in the final quarter to beat the rival Packers, 31-27.
He nearly made it eight Sunday.
And to think back on all the rash reactions after his modest rookie season, the anonymous reports that came out about his struggles with the previous coaching staff, the questions of whether he and Ben Johnson would be able to mesh, etc.
Anyone who watched Williams in college, as he won the Heisman Trophy at USC as a sophomore, could attest he has top-of-the-league arm talent paired with plus athleticism and the ability to create big plays out of nothing. (Sound familiar, or should we show it again? OK, we’ll show it again …)
Williams finished the regular-season with 3,942 passing yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs (plus 388 rushing yards and 3 TDs). He did have 5 INTs (with 4 TDs) in the two playoff games, which one would assume he’ll even out the more postseason experience he gets.
But the lasting impression he left wasn’t the final pick that ultimately doomed the Bears — it’s the identity of indomitable resilience he’s given that team.
When’s the last time the Bears had any identity at all — or an actual star quarterback?
Exactly. The best is yet to come in Chicago.
Mevis, Mendoza Mania and Marcus Jones
We’ve let the alliteration run amok, acknowledged, but we still need the alliterative speed round all the same …
The gamble to turn to a rookie kicker is a weighty one in the NFL, and there’s often no rhyme or reason to how it works out.
The highest-drafted kicker of the last decade was Roberto Aguayo, whom the Buccaneers took out of Florida State with a second-round pick in 2016. He lasted just one season, making 22 of 31 field goals and also missing two extra points.
In the last four drafts, nine kickers were selected. Five have already been cut from the team that drafted them.
The Ravens used a sixth-round draft pick in the last draft to select Tyler Loop out of Arizona, and he was mostly excellent while making 30 of 34 field goals, but kickers are ultimately evaluated not necessarily on volume but on the big ones. His missed 44-yarder at Pittsburgh kept them out of the playoffs and effectively ended the John Harbaugh era in Baltimore.
But the seeming unpredictability of evaluating and selecting young kickers might be even better underscored with a success story (so far, at least).
Harrison Mevis was not drafted coming out of Missouri. He was waived in the preseason in consecutive years by the Panthers and Jets. He spent time with the Birmingham Stallions of the United Football League.
And then mid-season this year, he landed on the Rams, who were ready to move on from 2024 sixth-round draft pick Joshua Karty. Mevis went 12 of 13 on field goals and 39/39 on extra points in nine regular-season games and has been perfect in the postseason on 4 FGs and 6 PATs.
That included the 42-yard game-winner in overtime to beat the Bears on Sunday.
Who knew?
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The Las Vegas Raiders actually have something to be excited about, thanks to the futility of the one-and-done Pete Carroll era that netted the franchise the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft.
Raiders owner Mark Davis, general manager John Spytek and minority owner Tom Brady were in Miami to watch Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza lead Indiana to the national championship Monday night.
The QB now has overwhelming -8000 odds to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Patriots cornerback Marcus Jones set the tone in the team’s playoff win over Houston, returning Stroud’s second of four first-half interceptions Sunday 26 yards for a touchdown. That gave New England a 14-10 lead and it never trailed again.
Jones might be one of the more underrated players in the entire NFL, but that could change with the spotlight on the Patriots now.
A third-round pick out of Houston in the 2022 draft, Jones made NFL history as a rookie by becoming the first player since 1947 to score touchdowns on an interception return, reception and punt return. He led the league in punt return yards that year and was named AP first-team All-Pro as a punter returner.
He earned second-team AP All-Pro honors in that role this season, scoring on two punt return TDs (tied for the league lead) to go with his two interception return TDs (including the playoffs).
Per NFL NextGen Stats, he’s only the second player in NFL history (along with Phillip Buchanon in 2003 with the Raiders) to have two punt return TDs and two interception return TDs in the same season/playoffs.
Jones also had a career-high 65 tackles and 3 INTs in the regular season.
Seems like it’s about time for this guy to be seen as a bigger star in the league.
New Head Coach Most Likely For Immediate Success
The Giants made the biggest splash this hiring cycle in landing John Harbaugh, fresh off his 18-year Ravens tenure that included 180 regular-season wins and a Super Bowl title.
Harbaugh should be a success in New York in time. Maybe it does come immediately — that can’t be counted out after what Vrabel, Johnson and Coen did as first-year coaches this season — but the Giants feel like they need some more rebuilding before a true breakout can be expected.
So our pick for new head coach hire most likely to have immediate high-level success (so far — at least until the Bills pick Sean McDermott’s replacement) is Kevin Stefanski in Atlanta.
We’ll get to the Browns and what it is exactly they expect to do after firing him, but that was the best thing that could have happened to Stefanski.
He was a two-time NFL Coach of the Year in Cleveland, ended the franchise’s 17-year playoff drought, delivered the Browns’ first winning season in 13 years, posted two 11-win seasons (the team’s highest win total since its return to the league in 1999) and playoff appearances, and then fell victim to the disastrous Deshaun Watson trade and all its ramifications.
Now he takes over one of the NFL’s most underperforming rosters in Atlanta.
The Falcons do have to figure out the quarterback situation.
Former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is expected back for the start of the 2026 season after recovering from a torn ACL, but he was mediocre at best through his first two seasons. The team will need to invest in a capable second option and could just elect to retain veteran Kirk Cousins, who went 5-2 down the stretch this season filling in for Penix.
But at the least, Stefanski is an offensive-minded coach with a background coaching QBs with the Vikings. Whether it’s elevating Penix to his potential or going a different direction, he should have a net-positive impact on that position for Atlanta.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have star talent in first-team All-Pro RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London, pending free agent TE Kyle Pitts had a breakout season (88 catches for 928 yards and 5 TDs) and earned second-team All-Pro honors, and the defense was at least middle of the pack this season.
There’s been a surprising number of detractors — at least loud ones with big platforms — to this hire, but we couldn’t disagree with those sentiments more.
Stefanski was an excellent hire, and the Falcons a favorable landing spot for him after a frustrating finish in Cleveland.
NFL Losers Of The Week
Broncos’ Bo-Mentum Broken
The term “losers” needs to be put in context here, as it’s not a criticism but merely reality. The Broncos sustained a major, major loss with QB Bo Nix’s season-ending broken ankle.
Especially how it all unfolded.
Nix outdueled reigning MVP Josh Allen to lead Denver to that dramatic 33-30 overtime playoff win Saturday, passing for 279 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.
His 26-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims put the Broncos ahead with 55 seconds to go, only for Allen to drive the Bills down for a tie. And a controversial Bills interception in overtime (more to come on that), Nix drove Denver 75 yards in six plays to set up the game-winning field goal.
Nix did a smiling postgame interview on the field and celebrated the win, giving no obvious signs that he’d broken his ankle three plays before that field goal.
At least, that’s the play Broncos coach Sean Payton said caused the injury. Though, Nix also didn’t look totally smooth when taking a knee to position the ball for that kick.
Nix helped lead Denver to the AFC’s No. 1 seed in his second season, passing for 3,931 yards, 25 TDs and 11 INTs while rushing for 356 yards and 5 TDs.
He posted on social media calling the injury “some of the most devastating football news I’ve ever received.”
And not just for himself. As noted earlier in talking about the Patriots, Denver is now a 4.5-point underdog at home in the AFC championship game while having to turn to backup Jarrett Stidham.
Sean McDermott Saddled With Bills’ Blame
This is about the toughest way it could have ended for coach Sean McDermott in Buffalo.
First, yes, it’s time to talk about the controversial interception in overtime that swung the game.
The Bills defense had forced a quick punt to start overtime, and it looked like Allen had connected with Brandin Cooks on a deep shot down to the Denver 20-yard line to put Buffalo in position for a potential game-winning field goal, adding to Allen’s lore and moving he and McDermott one step away from an elusive Super Bowl appearance.
But Broncos cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian ripped the ball away on Cooks’ way to the ground and the officials ruled it an interception.
If Cooks controls it to the ground, the Bills are likely in the AFC championship game against a Patriots team they split with in the regular season. Instead, Buffalo fell short in another year of Allen’s prime and McDermott was fired after nine seasons, a 98-50 regular-season record, seven straight playoff appearances and two conference championship games.
The normally soft-spoken, subdued McDermott showed some fire in his postgame press conference, questioning why the play wasn’t at least looked at and discussed longer.
“I’m standing up for Buffalo, damn it,” he said. “I’m standing up for us because what went on is — that is not how it should go down.”
For what it’s worth, Bengals star QB Joe Burrow sided with the officials.
Regardless, it’s a tough way for one of the NFL’s longest-tenured coaches to go out, but it got even worse for McDermott in the aftermath of his firing. Bills owner Terry Pegula, in a bizarre moment during the press conference to address the move, publicly blamed McDermott for the decision to draft wide receiver Keon Coleman in the second round in 2024.
Regular readers know that we agree it was time for a coaching change in Buffalo. McDermott won a lot of games, yes, but he did it with a generational talent at quarterback who singularly shouldered more responsibility for carrying his team than arguably any player in the NFL.
McDermott never got the Bills over the hump despite this, and a new voice in that locker room may be exactly what Buffalo needs to do so.
But, even we have to admit this is a tough way for it to end for McDermott.
San Francisco Simply No Match For Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers had some of the best momentum in the league late in the season, winning six straight games to set up a winner-take-all showdown with the Seahawks in San Francisco for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Instead, the Niners’ season ends with a thud after two one-sided losses to the Seahawks in the span of three weeks.
The playoff win over the Eagles in the Wild Card round was nice, but San Francisco now faces a blunt reality that it is stuck in the toughest division in the NFL. Their NFC West foes, the Rams and Seahawks, are the two favorites to win the Super Bowl, and there’s no reason to think those teams won’t be every bit as good next year too.
San Francisco was beset by injuries this season, and maybe that’s ultimately a bulk of the explanation for how things finished, but the coaching staff and front office can’t ignore that they simply were no match for Seattle in those final two losses, averaging 204.5 yards, totaling 4 turnovers and combining for just 9 total points in those eight quarters.
Coach Kyle Shanahan has led San Francisco to five playoff appearances in the last seven years, including two Super Bowl appearances and four NFC championship games, but the balance of power may well have shifted in the NFC West now.
C.J. Stroud’s Spotlight Struggles
C.J. Stroud was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, but for now at least, his career is defined by two brutal playoff performances this year.
The Texans overcame Stroud’s 3 turnovers (plus 3 more fumbles he was able to recover) in the wild-card win over the Steelers, but they could not offset his 4 first-half interceptions vs. the Patriots
Per the AP, Stroud became the first player with five or more INTs and five or more fumbles in a single postseason.
How he addressed those struggles didn’t help matters …
It’s far too soon to count Stroud out. He’s had enough impressive moments in his three years in Houston to show what’s possible, and he’s a well-regarded teammate with a respected work ethic.
But this is going to define him until he proves otherwise in a future postseason.
Cleveland’s Conundrum, Cardinals Too and Keon Coleman
Some parting thoughts with another speed round …
There’s still five head coach vacancies to fill in the NFL and lot left to sort out this hiring cycle, but fans in Cleveland and Arizona have to be wondering what the plan is for their teams.
As noted, the Browns fired a two-time NFL Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski who was immediately among the most desired coaches on the market and landed in a better situation in Atlanta.
Two candidates have formally withdrawn their name from the Browns search, as Mike McDaniel chose instead to become the Chargers’ offensive coordinator while Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter also pulled out to focus on other opportunities (UPDATE: Minter has been named the Baltimore Ravens head coach). Per the Akron Beacon Journal, Cleveland is set to have a second in-person interview with Jaguars OC Grant Udinski.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been less public about targets in their coaching search, but it has been reported they’ve missed out some preferred candidates so far.
The name now getting the most buzz is Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile, who has spent just one season as a coordinator after coaching linebackers for the Dolphins and Packers the previous five years.
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Meanwhile, we’ll close with poor Keon Coleman getting called out by his team’s owner.
Coleman certainly hasn’t returned the value the Bills were expecting as the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft. He actually regressed this year, from 556 yards on 19.2 per reception as a rookie to 404 and 10.6 YPC this season. And he’s been benched multiple times in his Buffalo career for disciplinary reasons.
But he’s literally still on the team as owner Terry Pegula cited the coaching staff’s preference for drafting Coleman in explaining his decision to fire McDermott. Wild stuff.