How wild was the first weekend of the NFL playoffs?
The six games from the aptly named Wild Card round combined for 12 fourth-quarter lead changes, which is not only a record for one playoff weekend but the most ever for an entire NFL postseason.
Per the Associated Press, citing the Elias Sports Bureau, the previous high for a total postseason was 10 fourth-quarter lead changes back in 2007.
What will the divisional round bring this weekend?
With point spreads set between 1.5 and 4.5 for three of the four games, we’re probably in for another set of dramatic duels Saturday and Sunday.
As always, let’s set the stage with a breakdown of each game and the ever-perilous proposition of trying to predict the scores.
Actually, we were pretty good last week on that front, nailing five of the six outright winners and getting one score dead-on. Let’s review …
– We were off on the margin in forecasting the Rams to beat the Panthers 33-20 when instead it was a dramatic 34-31 win for Los Angeles.
– We astutely picked the Bears in a modest upset, guessing a 24-21 margin when in fact Chicago beat Green Bay 31-27.
– We had an exact hit in calling the Bills’ 27-24 win over the Jaguars!
– Our big whiff was continuing to believe the Eagles would eventually put it all together, prediction a 31-30 win over the 49ers. But no, Philadelphia’s offense continued to underwhelm and the Niners won 23-19.
– We also put too much faith in Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ abysmal offensive line, calling for a close 29-27 Patriots win, when in actuality New England distanced itself in a 16-3 victory.
– And our expectation for a narrow Texans win over the Steelers, with a 22-19 guess, looked solid enough as it was a one-point game entering the fourth quarter, but Houston dominated from there on the way to a 30-6 win.
We’ll see if we can do even better this weekend. Here goes …
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
4:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS/Paramount+
This would be our pick for game of the week.
The Bills didn’t always look like a Super Bowl contender during an uneven regular season, but it’s the playoffs and quarterback Josh Allen is simply elite this time of year and arguably the best postseason asset on any remaining team in the field.
The Bills are just 8-6 in the playoffs with Allen, but that is a reflection on way more than the QB. Allen has routinely done his part this time of year, averaging 259.4 passing yards and 50.1 rushing yards per playoff game, with 26 passing touchdowns, just 4 interceptions, 9 rushing TDs and even a receiving TD. Per NFL.com, his 310.6 total yards per game is the most in postseason history for any player with at least 10 starts.
Last week in that back-and-forth duel in Jacksonville, Allen passed for 273 yards and a TD and rushed for 33 yards and 2 TDs, including the game-winner with 1:04 remaining.
That was Allen’s first road playoff win in five tries (with three of the four losses coming at Kansas City) — and more incredibly, Buffalo’s first road playoff win in 33 years! — but now comes a truly daunting challenge in Denver vs. a Broncos defense that ranks top 3 in the NFL in both yards (278.2) and points (18.3) allowed per game and leads the league by a wide margin in sacks (68 — 11 more than any other team in the regular season).
Denver’s elite secondary — led by Patrick Surtain II — would seemingly have the advantage against a Bills aerial attack that lacks a true No. 1 receiver and is led by Khalil Shakir (72 catches for 719 yards and 4 TDs in the regular season) and tight ends Dalton Kincaid (39-571-5) and Dawson Knox (36-417-4).
Buffalo is at its best when it can lean on its rushing attack with NFL rushing leader James Cook (1,621 rushing yards and 12 TDs in the regular season) and Allen, but the Broncos give up the second-fewest rushing yards in the league at 91.1 per game.
Denver also is rested after earning a bye with the AFC’s No. 1 seed and should have a fired-up home crowd as the Broncos host a playoff game for the first time in 10 years.
But this is by far the biggest game of second-year QB Bo Nix’s career, and let’s not forget that these teams met in the playoffs last year with the Bills winning 31-7 in Buffalo in the wildcard round. Nix was just 13-of-22 passing for 144 yards and a TD (plus 43 rushing yards) in that game.
Nix has shown a penchant for clutch fourth quarter performances in his second season and helped Denver win 13 of its final 14 games.
The biggest injury note is that the Bills will be without starting safety Jordan Poyer.
Denver is a 1.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 21
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
8 p.m. Saturday on FOX
The NFC West foes square off for the third time this season with the 49ers winning 17-13 in Seattle in Week 1 and the Seahawks closing the regular season with a stifling 13-3 win in San Francisco that clinched the division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
That’s the game that resonates most when looking at this matchup as Seattle’s surging defense totally shut down the Niners’ roaring offense, allowing just 173 yards and 9 first downs.
But San Francisco was clearly suffering from the absence of veteran left tackle Trent Williams in that game. Williams returned to action last week in the team’s playoff win in Philadelphia, and the 49ers got back on track against a good Eagles defense.
Injuries continue to ravage this team, though. Star tight end George Kittle was lost last week with a torn Achilles tendon, depriving QB Brock Purdy of arguably his top target, but the 49ers are hopeful to have WR Ricky Pearsall back for the first time since Week 17. He’s battled knee and ankle injuries throughout the season, limiting him to just nine games, but he’s been a major factor when available.
On the flip side, safety Ji’Ayir Brown (fourth on the team with 76 tackles, plus 2 interceptions and a forced fumble) has been ruled out with a hamstring injury sustained last week, and linebacker Dee Winters (team-high 101 tackles, 8 tackles for loss) is listed as questionable with an ankle injury but was able to practice some this week. Of course, the Niners have played most of the season without star pass rusher Nick Bosa and defensive leader LB Fred Warner (who could potentially return from his broken ankle next week if the team advances after getting in some practice work this week).
It’s a wonder how San Francisco has kept the train on the tracks this long with all those injures (and top WR Brandon Aiyuk missing the whole season for a combination of reasons).
But coach Kyle Shanahan has guided the team to wins in seven of their last eight games with Purdy playing at an elite level for most of that stretch and RB Christian McCaffrey having a stellar season in leading the Niners in both rushing and receiving (2,126 combined yards and 17 TDs in regular season, 114 combined yards and 2 TDs last week vs. the Eagles).
The one advantage the 49ers have is experience. Purdy is 5-2 as a playoff starter while getting to two NFC championship games and a Super Bowl in his first three seasons, averaging 229.3 passing yards with 8 TDs, 3 INTs and a rushing TD in those games.
On the other side, Seattle QB Sam Darnold has strung together back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons for the Vikings and Seahawks, winning 28 games along the way. But — and it’s a big but — his only career playoff appearance was a forgettable one last year.
Darnold completed just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards — missing open receivers and prime scoring opportunities — in a 31-9 Vikings loss to the Lions that surely factored into Minnesota’s decision to let the QB walk after the season.
So Saturday night is a huge moment for Darnold’s career to push back on doubts about his ability to be a big-game QB.
Ideally for Seattle, it doesn’t ask him to do all the heavy-lifting. The Seahawks have a solid two-headed rushing attack with Kenneth Walker III (1,027 rushing yards and 5 TDs) and Zach Charbonnet (730-12), the NFL’s leader in receiving yards in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 TDs) and an elite defense that only got better as the season progressed.
Seattle ended up allowing the fewest points per game in the league (17.2) and the sixth-fewest yards per game (285.6) — including holding four of its last six opponents to 10 or fewer points.
The Seahawks are rested and mostly healthy. Darnold hit the injury report with an oblique strain, but he’s downplayed the injury and asserted it won’t keep him off the field. The only player ruled out is versatile offensive lineman Josh Jones, who has played in 14 games with 3 starts this season.
Seattle is a team on the rise under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald, but this will be his first playoff game in that role, while San Francisco is a perennial postseason presence with Shanahan leading the 49ers to four NFC championship games and two Super Bowls in the last six years.
So it’s experience, proven postseason success, a January-tested quarterback and one of the best running backs in football as the strengths in this matchup for the Niners, and health, rest, home-field advantage, an elite defense, top receiver and solid rushing attack for the Seahawks.
Seattle is a 7-point favorite.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 21
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
3 p.m. Sunday on ESPN/ABC
Drake Maye followed up his MVP-caliber regular season (4,394 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs, 450 rushing yards and 4 TDs) with a solid-enough playoff debut, passing for 268 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with 66 rushing yards in a 16-3 win over the Chargers.
It was a defensive rock fight for most of the game before Maye hit tight end Hunter Henry for a 28-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to stretch the lead.
If there was a concern to take from that win, though, it’s that that rather mobile second-year QB was sacked 5 times and now faces a Texans defense that was tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks this season (47) and that just beat up on Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers last week with 4 sacks and pressures on 46% of his drop-backs.
Houston, which is just the seventh NFL team to ever overcome an 0-3 start (later 2-5) and make the playoffs and only the second of that group to reach the divisional round, has leaned on that defense to win 10 straight games.
The Texans are good at every level of the defense, starting up front with havoc-causing edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles) and Danielle Hunter (15, sacks, 3 FF). Pair that with incredible secondary that helped Houston to 19 regular-season interceptions (tied for 3rd-best) with cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter and safeties Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock all notching 4 picks, and the Texans are a challenge for even the best QBs.
In the 30-6 win in Pittsburgh in the wildcard round, Houston held Rodgers to a meager 17-of-33 passing for 146 yards, 0 TDs, a sack fumble leading to 33-yard TD return by big DT Sheldon Rankins and a game-sealing 50-yard pick-6 by Bullock.
It was a punctuating performance by a defense that led the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game (277.2) and narrowly finished second in fewest points allowed (17.4 per game).
That covered up a rough performance from QB C.J. Stroud, who threw a pick, lost 2 fumbles and had 3 more that he was able to recover.
Stroud is a wildcard after an up-and-down season (3,041 passing yards, 19 TDs and 8 INTs in 14 games), and he’ll be without his top target Nico Collins due to a concussion sustained in that win.
Well-traveled veteran WR Christian Kirk stepped up big in Collins’ stead with 8 catches for 144 yards and a TD, but he had just 239 receiving yards the whole season to that point. Behind Collins, rookie Jayden Higgins (41-425-6) was the team’s second-best wideout during the season with tight end Dalton Schultz (82-777-3) heavily involved.
That limited passing attack has a tough matchup against a Patriots team that has an underrated defense of its own.
New England boasted a top-10 passing defense and got good news this week with top cornerback Christian Gonzalez clearing concussion protocol.
Expect Houston to try to ride rookie RB Woody Marks again after his career-best performance last week with 112 yards and a TD on 19 carries, though the Patriots gave up the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league (101.7 per game) and just held the Chargers to 207 total yards of offense while sacking QB Justin Herbert 6 times.
Ultimately, it would seem this game comes down to Houston’s ability to limit Maye and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson and keep it a low-scoring game.
Few teams managed to do so, though, as New England ranked second in the regular season in scoring (28.8 PPG) and third in total offense (379.4 YPG) while scoring at least 23 points in every game from Week 4 onward. The Patriots had the biggest turnaround in the NFL this season, going from 4 wins to 14 plus a playoff victory and counting in coach Mike Vrabel’s first season.
New England is a 3-point favorite.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 17
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
6:30 p.m. Sunday on NBC/Peacock
The weekend capper rivals the opener for status as the most compelling matchup of the divisional round.
Matt Stafford may well win his first MVP award at age 37 after a vintage season with 4,707 passing yards, a career-high 46 TDs and 8 INTs, and he added to it last week in throwing for the game-winning touchdown in the final minute to lead the Rams back on the road vs. the Panthers.
What would really elevate his legacy would be a second Super Bowl win, and there’s lot of reason to like the Rams’ chances to go all the way.
With wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combining for 189 catches, 2,504 receiving yards and 25 total TDs in the regular season and then 15 catches for 183 receiving yards and 2 TDs (1 receiving, 1 rushing by Nacua) in the first playoff win, this is the most potent offense left in the field.
Meanwhile, Bears second-year QB Caleb Williams is emerging as a star while leading the Bears to seven wins this season after trailing in the fourth quarter — including last week in turning a 21-6 fourth quarter deficit into a momentous 31-27 win over the rival Packers.
The Bears’ 25 fourth quarter points were the third-most in NFL playoff history, while Williams tossed a pair of touchdowns passes in the final 4:18 and threw for 184 yards in that final quarter overall — the most fourth quarter passing yards in a postseason game since Tom Brady had 196 in the Patriots’ epic Super Bowl comeback over the Falcons nine years ago.
It’s also helped that first-round rookie tight end Colston Loveland is breaking out in a big way in recent weeks, averaging 8 catches for 107.3 yards per game with 2 TDs over his last three games. He had 8 catches for a season-high 137 yards and a key two-point conversion in that win over the Packers, as the Bears have a versatile array of weapons around Williams.
This team is legit, pairing its offensive potential with a defense that led the NFL with 33 takeaways in the regular season (23 interceptions and 10 fumbles). That unit gets a boost with the return of nickel C.J. Gardner-Johnson from concussion protocol.
The Rams, meanwhile, get starting right guard Kevin Dotson back for the first time since a Week 16 ankle injury.
It would be surprising if this game didn’t deliver late suspense Sunday night.
Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Rams 37, Bears 32
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