The NFL playoffs kickoff Saturday, beginning the most wide-open Super Bowl chase in quite a while with the fall of the Chiefs dynasty, the collapse of expected playoff teams like the Lions and Ravens, the dysfunction of the Eagles, the unreliability of the Bills and the emergence of unexpected contenders like the Seahawks, Patriots and Jaguars.
Per BetMGM, the Seahawks have the best odds to win the Super Bowl (+375), followed by the Rams (+425), the Broncos (+650), the Eagles (+850) and the Bills and Patriots (+1000 each).
We have our own power rankings and thoughts, though, as we’ve done all season — except we’re dealing only with the 14 playoff teams this time.
Super Bowl Favorites
1. Los Angeles Rams (12-5): All respect to the Seahawks and how well their defense played down the stretch, but we’re putting our trust in Matthew Stafford over Sam Darnold to deliver on the biggest stage. Los Angeles and Seattle would meet in the second round if the Rams beat the Panthers in their wild card game Saturday, so one of the most pivotal playoff games could come early. But with Stafford playing at an MVP level (4,707 passing yards, 46 TDs and 8 INTs) and his deep cast of playmakers all healthy, led by wide receivers Puka Nacua (129 receptions for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs) and Davante Adams (60-789-14) — who is returning from a hamstring injury — it’s hard to pick against the most potent offense in the league. Especially with a head coach in Sean McVay who has won a Super Bowl and reached two.
2. Seattle Seahawks (14-3): But, yeah, it’s close between these top two teams — so close their last meeting went to overtime. Seattle passed Houston in the final week to take the NFL-lead for fewest points allowed (17.2 per game) while ranking 6th in yards allowed (285.6 per game). The fact remains, though, that Darnold has never won a playoff game. He’s only started one playoff game, for that matter, and it did not go well at all last year with the Vikings, as he had a fumble returned for a touchdown, threw an interception and didn’t get his offense in the end zone until late in the third quarter in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. And while he played pretty well this season (4,048 yards and 25 TDs), Darnold also threw the third-most interceptions (14) in the league. So the question when evaluating the Seahawks’ Super Bowl chances really does come to finding confidence in Darnold to play steady in the three biggest games of his career. Seattle has a first-round bye.
3. Denver Broncos (14-3): The Broncos have been building toward this for three years under coach Sean Payton, and it all came together this season with an elite defense (2nd in allowing 278.2 YPG, 3rd in allowing 18.3 PPG) and second-year quarterback Bo Nix (3,931-25-11, plus 356 rushing yards and 5 TDs) showing significant growth and a penchant for clutch fourth-quarter performances. Denver won 13 of its final 14 games, gets to rest this week with a bye, has home-field advantage through the playoffs and has a proven Super Bowl-winning coach — we could absolutely see the Broncos go all the way. They’ll host the winner of Houston and Pittsburgh.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): This may be high, but we just can’t quit the Eagles. They did win the Super Bowl last year, after all, and have most of the same core intact from that team even if they’ve rarely resembled it through a frustrating up-and-down season. There has been some thought all season that QB Jalen Hurts hasn’t been running as much (his 105 carries for 421 yards and 8 TDs are all well below his production from the last four years) to save his legs for when it really mattered. If that proves out and Hurts returns to his dual-threat ways that made the Eagles so difficult to defend and gameplan against, that could change everything for this underwhelming offense. That said, the Eagles have a daunting first-round matchup with the 49ers and could easily get bounced this weekend.
5. Buffalo Bills (12-5): Regular readers already know there is a lot of skepticism here that coach Sean McDermott will ever get the Bills over the hump in the postseason, but at least they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs this time after being eliminated by Kansas City in four of the last five years. Buffalo is slotted above a couple teams with better records purely because of QB Josh Allen and what he’s shown in the playoffs in past years. No team wants to face Allen in the playoffs. Also, RB James Cook is in the midst of a career-best season and led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards (along with 291 receiving yards and 16 total TDs).
6. New England Patriots (14-3): Mike Vrabel led New England to a 10-win improvement and AFC East title in his first season, with the Patriots winning 13 of their final 14 games. QB Drake Maye is a top contender for NFL MVP after a superlative second season in which he passed for 4,394 yards on an NFL-best 72% completion rate with 31 TDs and 8 INTs while also rushing for 450 yards and 4 TDs. This will be his first test on the postseason stage, so that’s one unknown variable, and given that the Patriots came out of nowhere this year and had a notably favorable schedule, it feels like maybe it’s a year too soon to envision them going all the way. But there’s also so much to like here. Vrabel has proven himself as an elite coach going back to his time in Tennessee, Maye sure looks like the real deal and already one of the top QBs in the league, emerging rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson (1,132 combined rushing/receiving yards and 10 TDs) is an X-factor with the potential to swing games, and the Pats give up the fourth-fewest points in the league (18.8 per game). New England hosts the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night.
Could They Win It All? Probably
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4): The Jaguars have won their last eight games and QB Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career with 266.7 passing yards per game, 15 passing TDs, just 1 INT and 4 rushing TDs over the last six games. Quite simply, first-year head coach Liam Coen has done one of the best jobs in the league. But are we ready to trust Lawrence to win four straight postseason games under heightened pressure? No, we are not. Jacksonville also has to face Allen and the Bills in the wild card round.
8. San Francisco 49ers (12-5): The 49ers’ momentum came to a screeching halt last week with a humbling 13-3 loss to the Seahawks while managing just 173 offensive yards. That was without elite left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring), but there is optimism he will be back Sunday when San Francisco takes on Philadelphia on the road. The Eagles are another daunting defense, though, so this will show whether the 49ers’ offensive surge the previous five games was a product of favorable matchups or if Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can carry this team and its depleted defense on a deep postseason run.
Can’t See It Happening
9. Chicago Bears (11-6): Another of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season, the Bears and second-year QB Caleb Williams look transformed in coach Ben Johnson’s first season. Williams (3,942 passing yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs) also showed a penchant for performing in the clutch late in games. Chicago looks like a team that will only keep getting better under Johnson, but going all the way this year feels like a stretch. Chicago hosts Green Bay on Saturday night.
10. Green Bay Packers (9-7-1): The Packers have lost four straight, but they were without starting QB Jordan Love for most of that stretch as he departed Week 16 vs. the Bears early with a concussion and then sat out the final two games. Love is healthy, as is running back Josh Jacobs, but the Packers seemed to lose all momentum when defensive star Micah Parsons was lost for the season to injury at the start of that losing streak. Green Bay takes on Chicago on the road Saturday night.
11. Houston Texans (12-5): Houston led the NFL in total defense, allowing just 277.2 yards per game (and 17.4 PPG), and also has the league’s longest active winning streak at nine games, but questions about the Texans’ offense bury them down the list here. QB C.J. Stroud (3,041, 19 TDs, 8 INTs in 14 games) is fine and has two playoff wins on his resume, but he hasn’t gotten the Texans past the second round in his first two opportunities and he’s had an up-and-down season. Houston’s rushing attack (108.9 YPG) also is limited. The Texans get the Steelers on the road Monday night to start their postseason.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): It’s remarkable that the Chargers have gotten this far after losing both starting offensive tackles and with QB Justin Herbert getting beat around week after week (54 sacks, third most in the league) while playing with a fractured non-throwing hand. How long can they really keep that up now facing top competition the rest of the way? The Chargers start their postseason push in New England on Sunday.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): It took a missed 44-yard field goal by Baltimore for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs, and this Steelers team looks very much like the ones that went one-and-done in coach Mike Tomlin’s last five playoff appearances. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. The Steelers get star WR DK Metcalf back from his two-game suspension for shoving a fan, but their limited offense is not a great matchup for Houston’s ferocious defense as the teams clash Monday night in Pittsburgh.
14. Carolina Panthers (8-9): The only team with a losing record in the playoffs, Carolina backed into the NFC South title through a three-way tiebreaker after losing their final two regular-season games. The Panthers’ stay in the playoffs should be brief as they open up against the Rams.
Editor's Pick
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