March Madness. The Masters. The first two rounds of the NFL playoffs.
One of the best weekends on the sports calendar has arrived with six NFL playoff games stretching from Saturday to Monday.
The best part, in line with how this entire season has played out, is that in five of the six it wouldn’t be a surprise if either team won.
Let’s get right into it with previews and predictions for each game.
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
4:30 p.m. Saturday on FOX
This is the one game with an expected outcome, which is ironic given that the Rams did actually lose to the Panthers in Carolina six weeks ago (31-28).
But with playoff stakes, it’s hard to see Los Angeles letting that happen again.
The Rams enter the playoffs with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+425), per BetMGM, and should be in peak form for this one.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford delivered an MVP-worthy season so far with 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and he’ll have his full complement of weapons Saturday with wide receiver Davante Adams set to return from a hamstring injury that has kept him sidelined since mid-December.
With Stafford, Adams (60 receptions for 789 yards and 14 TDs), fellow wideout Puka Nacua (129-1,715-10) and running backs Kyren Williams (1,252 yards and 10 TDs) and Blake Corum (746-6), the Rams’ offensive firepower is hard for most teams to match.
The Panthers lost two straight and three out of four games to close the regular season yet backed into the playoffs thanks to a three-way tiebreaker in the NFC South. They are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record.
QB Bryce Young has had the best season of his three-year NFL career (3,011 passing yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs), but he’s still not consistent enough week to week — which is why the Panthers had alternated wins and losses for 10 straight games before losing back-to-back weeks in the end.
Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is a candidate for offensive rookie of the year with 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs, and RB Rico Dowdle (1,076-6) has been a nice pickup for the Panthers.
Carolina caught the Rams napping last time — it’s doubtful that happens again.
Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite.
Prediction: Rams 33, Panthers 20
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
8 p.m. Saturday on Prime Video
No playoff team had a worse finish to the regular season than the Packers, who limp into the postseason after four straight losses.
It started with a 34-26 loss in Denver, which was especially costly as defensive star Micah Parsons sustained a season-ending torn ACL. Then QB Jordan Love went down with a concussion the next week in a 22-16 loss at Chicago and sat out the rest of the regular season with Malik Willis and Clayton Tune taking turns in his place in losses to Baltimore (41-24) and Minnesota (16-3).
Love is back for the playoffs, as is RB Josh Jacobs, who was limited to just 4 carries vs. the Ravens before sitting out the final game to rest his injured knee.
But can the Packers suddenly find fresh momentum?
The same could be asked of the Bears, who took back-to-back losses to the 49ers and the Lions last week in a game that meant way more to Chicago.
First-year head coach Ben Johnson worked wonders for the Bears, leading them to their first division title since 2018 and helping get the best out of second-year QB Caleb Williams (3,942 yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs).
Williams should have some extra help this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 catches for 661 yards and 6 TDs) expected back for the first time since late November after dealing with a foot injury.
Cornerback Kyler Gordon (groin) is listed as questionable for Chicago but was trending positively toward being available for the first time since late November as well.
The teams split the two regular-season meetings.
Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 21
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
All the pressure is on Buffalo and coach Sean McDermott in this one.
After losing in the playoffs to Kansas City four of the last five years, the Bills don’t have QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in their way this time. Or Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who bounced Buffalo from the playoffs in between those clashes with KC.
The bigger point is it’s time for McDermott to show he can get the Bills over the hump as they make their seventh straight playoff appearance still trying to get to the Super Bowl for the first time with star QB Josh Allen.
Buffalo has the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl among AFC teams (+1000), per BetMGM, but it’s no sure thing they even win this game.
Jacksonville is one of the hottest teams in the NFL with eight straight wins, as head coach Liam Coen led the Jaguars to a nine-win improvement in his first year.
He’s worked magic with QB Trevor Lawrence, unlocking the best stretch of the former No. 1 overall draft pick’s five-year career. Lawrence ranked among the league leaders with 11 interceptions through the first 11 games, but since then he’s been sublime — 15 passing TDs, just 1 INT and 4 rushing TDs over the final six games while averaging 266.7 passing yards per game in that stretch.
Lawrence will need to match Allen, who is one of the best big-game quarterbacks in the league.
Both teams have effective rushing attacks as well, though, with Buffalo’s James Cook winning the NFL rushing title with 1,621 yards and 12 TDs while Travis Etienne had a bounce-back year for Jacksonville with 1,107 rushing yards, 292 receiving yards and 13 total TDs.
Jacksonville is a 1.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Bills 27, Jaguars 24
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
4:30 p.m. Sunday on FOX
All season, Eagles fans (and simply NFL observers in general) have been waiting for the reigning Super Bowl champions to put it all together, and maybe that happens in the playoffs with the stakes elevated now.
But it’s been a slog for Philadelphia.
It looked like the Eagles had started to figure things out mid-season when they reeled off four straight wins over the Vikings, Giants, Packers and Lions, but that run was followed with three straight losses to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers.
And it’s hard to read anything into the last month. Philadelphia beat the Raiders, Commanders and Bills — but even that big win came with concerns as the Eagles were shutout after halftime and barely hung on to their early lead — and then rested starters in a Week 18 loss to Washington.
The fact remains that QB Jalen Hurts hasn’t been the same player this year. His passing stats (3,224 yards, 25 TDs and 6 INTs) are in line with his norms, but he simply didn’t use his legs to the same level. His 105 rushing attempts were 45 less than last season even while playing one more game, and his 421 rushing yards and 8 TDs were the lowest totals since his rookie season. He’d finished with between 605-784 rushing yards with double-digit TDs each of the previous four seasons. Hurts had 7 or fewer rushing attempts in 11 of his last 12 games.
The Eagles offense simply isn’t the same when opposing defenses don’t have to account for that threat as much.
Again, maybe the Eagles have been saving Hurts’ legs for the playoffs, not wanting to risk injury along the way. We’ll see.
And then there’s RB Saquon Barkley, who went from 2,005 rushing yards and a robust 5.8 yards per carry last year to 1,140 yards on just 4.1 YPC.
It hasn’t helped that Philadelphia’s offensive line hasn’t been the same force this year. Standout right tackle Lane Johnson has been out since mid-November with a Lisfranc sprain in his foot and is still listed as questionable, but he returned to practice last week, which is an encouraging sign.
Meanwhile, the 49ers know all about the struggle of replacing elite offensive tackles. Left tackle Trent Williams, who missed almost all of the last two games with a hamstring injury, was a limited participant in practice Thursday and Friday and is also listed as questionable.
The Niners were one of the hottest teams in the league before a humbling 13-3 loss to Seattle in Week 18, with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line, and Williams’ absence was very much felt in that game.
His status Sunday will have a huge bearing on San Francisco’s offense going against the Eagles’ fierce defensive front.
Before that stifling loss to the Seahawks and their elite defense, San Francisco had put up 127 points over its previous three games, so it will be interesting to see how the 49ers bounce back.
QB Brock Purdy (2,167 yards, 20 TDs and 10 INTs in nine games) was playing to his peak potential prior to that last game, and San Francisco is absolutely capable of making a Super Bowl run if he’s playing to that level along with do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey (1,202 rushing yards, team-high 924 receiving yards and 17 total TDs) and star TE George Kittle (57 catches for 628 yards and 7 TDs in 11 games).
Philadelphia is a 6-point favorite.
Prediction: Eagles 31, 49ers 30
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
8 p.m. Sunday on NBC/Peacock
The Chargers rested quarterback Justin Herbert in Week 18, and if anybody deserved it, it’s him.
Herbert has been playing through a fractured left non-throwing hand since injuring it in Week 13, and he’s taken a ton of sacks (54, third-most in the league) playing behind a depleted offensive line that lost both of its original starting tackles (LT Rashawn Slater went down with a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, and after stepping into that spot Joe Alt had season-ending surgery for an ankle injury sustained in Week 9).
The protection up front and Herbert’s ability to navigate it is the question for the Chargers every game, but he managed to have a solid season nonetheless with 3,727 yards, 26 TDs and 13 INTs.
He’s really spread the ball around evenly in the passing attack between Ladd McConkey (66-789-6), Keenan Allen (81-777-4), Quintin Johnston (51-735-8) and emerging TE Oronde Gadsden (49-664-3).
Meanwhile, RB Omarion Hampton (right ankle) has said he plans to play after sitting Week 18. Hampton missed a big chunk of the season with a fracture in his left ankle but was rounding back into form (16 carries for 85 yards and a TD vs. Dallas in Week 16) before injuring his right ankle in Week 17. Hampton (545 rushing yards and 4 TDs) and Kimani Vidal (643-3) would ideally share the backfield duties.
The Chargers have one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking 5th in total defense (285.2 yards per game) with Tuli Tuipulotu 6th in the league with 13 sacks, Derwin James (94 tackles, 3 INTs, 7 pass breakups, 2 sacks and a forced fumble) one of the top safeties around LB Daiyan Henley (103 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 2 INTs) a solid playmaker in the middle.
This will be a great test for that defense, though, as New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense (379.4 YPG) and 2nd in scoring (28.8 PPG) with second-year QB Drake Maye challenging Stafford for the MVP award.
Maye is completing a league-best 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs to go with 450 yards and 4 TDs on the ground.
WR Stefon Diggs is enjoying a bounce-back year with 85 receptions for 1,013 yards and 4 TDs after a down season in Houston last year, while TE Hunter Henry is having arguably the best season of his nine-year career with 60 catches for a career-high 768 yards and 7 TDs.
But the X-factor for New England is dynamic rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson, who finished the regular season with 911 rushing yards and 9 TDs and 221 receiving yards and a score after a slow start.
Mike Vrabel, meanwhile, is a leading coach of the year candidate, leading the Patriots to a 10-win improvement and AFC East title in his first season. New England won 13 of its final 14 games.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Patriots 29, Chargers 27
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
8:15 p.m. Monday on ESPN/ABC
The Steelers snuck into the playoffs thanks to Tyler Loop’s missed 44-yard field goal for the Ravens at the end of the AFC North rivals’ winner-take-all clash last week, but they have the second-worst Super Bowl odds (+5000) of any playoff team behind only the Panthers.
Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL at 305.6 YPG, just doesn’t inspire a lot of optimism.
That said, QB Aaron Rodgers (3,322 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs) had some vintage big throws in that game and is still plenty capable.
The Steelers also get star WR DK Metcalf (59-850-6) back after a two-game suspension for shoving a fan. He elevates Pittsburgh’s passing game significantly as the only true one-on-one advantage the team has through the air.
Running backs Jaylen Warren (958 rushing yards and 6 TDs, 333 receiving yards and 2 TDs) and Kenneth Gainwell (537-5, team-high 73 catches for 486 yards and 3 TDs) form a nice tandem and shoulder most of the load for the offense.
But this is just a tough matchup for Pittsburgh.
Houston is the NFL’s top defense, allowing a league-low 277.2 YPG and 17.4 PPG (a close second behind Seattle).
The Texans have won nine straight games to rally back from a 3-5 start, thanks largely to that unit, led by a deep cast of contributors.
Edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. set the tone with 27 combined sacks, 35 tackles for loss, 6 forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown. But LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (103 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 FF) and Henry To’oTo’o (95 tackles, 9 TFLs, 2.5 sacks), and CBs Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. and safeties Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock each have 4 INTs and 54 combined pass breakups.
Lassiter sat out Week 18 and was limited in practice this week with a knee injury but is expected to play.
On offense for Houston, it’s been an up-and-down season for QB C.J. Stroud (3,041 passing yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs in 14 games), but he’s taken care of the ball better down the stretch with 8 TDs (plus 1 rushing) and 2 INTs the last five games.
Star WR Nico Collins (71-1,117-6) rested in Week 18 but is good to go, as is RB Woody Marks (703 rushing yards, 208 receiving yards and 5 totals TDs).
Houston is a 3-point favorite.
Prediction: Texans 22, Steelers 19