The college football season is down to its final three games.
The College Football Playoff semifinals kick off Thursday night with No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1) taking on No. 10 Miami (12-2) at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, followed Friday by No. 1 Indiana (14-0) battling No. 5 Oregon (13-1) at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
However it shakes out, the power structure in college football has been shaken up this season.
Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, which combined to win 10 national titles since 2009, were all eliminated in the CFP quarterfinals.
More to the point, Indiana and Oregon have never won a national championship in football, Ole Miss claims three (1959, 1960, 1962) but is only recognized by the NCAA for splitting the 1960 title with Minnesota. And Miami hasn’t won a national title since 2001 while falling far from his former peak for much of the two decades-plus decades since then.
Any outcome is a fresh and compelling one at this point.
If Indiana wins it all, it completes one of the greatest stories in sports history — all sports, all-time.
The Hoosiers held the dubious distinction of having the most losses in college football history up until this year when they got passed by Northwestern. They hadn’t won so much as a conference championship since 1967 and had gone 2-10, 4-8 and 3-9 in the three seasons before hiring Curt Cignetti, who was largely unknown to casual football fans and is now in the conversation of greatest coaches in the sport after going 25-2 (and counting) with two CFP berths in two seasons at Indiana. (Read a deeper take on Cignetti and Indiana here).
If Ole Miss wins, after head coach Lane Kiffin left to take the LSU job before the playoffs, it would make his replacement Pete Golding an instant legend while cementing Trinidad Chambliss — the delightfully dynamic dual-threat QB who was playing at Division II Ferris State last year and opened this season as a backup — as one of the great individual stories in the sport in recent memory.
Not to mention what it would do for Kiffin’s already complex legacy, especially as two assistant coaches hired by Kiffin at LSU who had stayed to coach Ole Miss’ first two playoff games (WRs coach George McDonald and TEs coach Joe Cox) left the Rebels ahead of the CFP semifinals to report fully to Kiffin’s staff in Baton Rouge.
Those two potential storylines are hard to top, but the other two possible outcomes are compelling as well.
If Oregon goes on to win the national championship, Dan Lanning is cemented as a top 5 coach in college football if he isn’t already and the Ducks move up to a different tier in the sport’s hierarchy after finally breaking through and winning it all.
And if it’s the Hurricanes celebrating when it’s all said and done, a once-storied program is back on top after a long road back to this point and coach Mario Cristobal fully shakes the stigma that he can’t win the big games when it matters most, though Miami’s stifling defense in wins over Texas A&M and the upset of Ohio State may already have largely countered that perception.
With that, any of the potential national championship matchups are ripe with intrigue as well.
Indiana vs. Miami: Heisman Trophy-winning Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza, who was an overlooked two-star recruit out of Miami, faces the local program that overlooked him out of high school, and two of the top defenses in the country clash.
Indiana vs. Ole Miss: The two best stories in college football go head-to-head for the ultimate prize. (And two former Nick Saban assistants at Alabama battle for the national title as Crimson Tide fans remain apoplectic about the state of their program.)
Oregon vs. Miami: Cristobal goes against his former school — one that didn’t seem especially sad to see him go after a successful four-year run but too many late-season letdowns — and again, two exceptional defenses duke it out.
Oregon vs. Ole Miss: Two former national-championship-winning defensive coordinators — Lanning at Georgia and Golding at Alabama — match up with the potential for a perception-changing moment for their programs.
We could go on and on about the narratives and potential storylines, but let’s bring it back to the here and now and break down these two CFP semifinals matchups with predictions.
(**Please, trust the score predictions at your own peril — we were 1-3 on picking outright winners in the quarterfinals! But that’s why these playoffs have been so compelling — the unpredictability and upsets.**)
(All game times are ET; all points spreads via DraftKings Sportsbook.)
No. 10 Miami (12-2) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1)
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
7:30 p.m. Thursday on ESPN
Ole Miss has been the best offensive team in the playoffs so far, putting up a combined 80 points and 970 yards in wins over Tulane and Geogia.
Miami has been a dominant defensive force in its two games, allowing 17 combined points in wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State while piling up 12 sacks, 5 forced turnovers and a defensive touchdown.
Something has to give Thursday night.
Everything for the Hurricanes has started with that destructive pass rush led by soon-to-be high NFL draft picks Rueben Bain Jr. (8 tackles, 4 sacks, 14 total pressures in two CFP games) and Akheem Mesidor (10 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 16 total pressures), but the athletic Chambliss has only been sacked multiple times in two games (5 by Florida and 3 by Washington State).
He’s also coming off a defining performance in that the Rebels’ come-from-behind 39-34 win over Georgia, in which he passed for a season-high 362 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs and saved his best throws for the biggest moments. Overall, Chambliss has 3,660 passing yards, 21 TDs and 3 INTs with 520 rushing yards and 8 scores.
He might well be the best player in college football but was perhaps hindered in the Heisman conversation by not starting until Week 3, depressing his overall numbers just enough.
Ole Miss is a well-rounded offense, though, with running back Kewan Lacy second among all FBS players with 1,464 rushing yards and first with 25 rushing TDs, and a deep receiving corps led by Harrison Wallace III (57 catches for 894 yards and 4 TDs) and De’Zhaun Stribling (50-734-6).
But don’t rule out the potential of Rebels kicker Lucas Carneiro again being an X-factor. He is 27 of 30 on field goals this season (and 55 of 55 on extra points) to lead all college kickers in scoring, and in that win over Georgia he was 3-3 on field goals from 55, 56 and the game-winner from 47 yards. Conversely, Miami kicker Carter Davis is just 2 of 5 on field goals in the playoffs, missing three kicks in the first-round game with Texas A&M.
Offensively, the Hurricanes have put their trust in veteran Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck (3,313 passing yards, 27 TDs and 10 INTs), who has thrown for just 103 and 138 yards in the two playoffs games but has protected the football with no picks. In Miami’s two losses to Louisville and SMU, Beck threw 6 INTs, so he has to avoid the mistakes but also likely will need far more production in this matchup.
Freshman Malachi Toney (94 catches for 1,008 yards and 9 total TDs) is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country for the Hurricanes, but he has just 38 receiving yards (and 13 rushing yards) in the two playoff games so far.
Running back Mark Fletcher has been the difference-maker offensively so far for Miami with 172 rushing yards vs. Texas A&M and 115 combined rushing/receiving yards with a TD vs. Ohio State.
As good as Miami’s defense is, it’s hard to think this Ole Miss offense will be truly contained. The Rebels average 37.6 PPG and haven’t scored less than 24 in any game, so the question is what can the Hurricanes get from Beck and their offense to complement the other side of the ball.
Ole Miss DE Kam Franklin (62 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) is questionable after going through the concussion protocol.
Miami will be without CB Damari Brown, who has missed the entire playoffs with a lower leg injury, while starting DT Ahmad Moten Sr. (25 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last game but trending in a positive direction.
Miami is a 3-point favorite.
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Miami 22
No. 5 Oregon (13-1) vs. No. 1 Indiana (14-0)
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
7:30 p.m. Friday on ESPN
Quite possibly the two most intense coaches in college football — in different ways — going head-to-head in the biggest game of their careers. Sign us up!
Also, the two coaches who delivered the best performances in the CFP quarterfinals.
Indiana silenced its SEC doubters by making Alabama look more like Purdue or Rutgers in a 38-3 game that was all but over by halftime, on the way to doubling the Crimson Tide’s offensive yards 407-193 while limiting it to just 23 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, Oregon delivered a 23-0 domination over a high-seeded, one-loss Big 12 champion Texas Tech team that had won every game with its starting quarterback healthy by 22 points or more.
The Hoosiers’ Curt Cignetti might just be college football’s true successor to Nick Saban in the way of consistently having the most prepared, fundamentally-sound, disciplined team on the field, except he’s doing it so far without any former five-star prospects (and only two four-stars in the starting lineup).
The Ducks’ Dan Lanning might be the most aggressive coach in college football, and his in-game gambles can swing momentum or backfire at times, but he too seems to know every button to push with his players — especially his defense — to get peak performance in big moments.
Indiana and Oregon rank second (252.6 yards per game allowed) and sixth (267.4) nationally in total defense, but they also have two quarterbacks considered potential high first-round draft picks this spring though neither the Hoosiers’ Fernando Mendoza nor the Ducks’ Dante Moore have announced their plans yet.
Mendoza, of course, won the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt-junior and has passed for 3,172 yards, 36 TDs and 6 INTs while also rushing for 6 scores. He was supremely efficient vs. Alabama while completing 14 of 16 passes for 192 yards and 3 TDs.
He’s supported by perhaps the most underrated receiving corps in the country in Omar Cooper Jr. (61-849-12), Elijah Sarratt (55-727-13) and Charlie Becker (28-566-3 while coming on down the stretch), who all caught TDs vs the Tide, and a two-headed rushing attack in Roman Hemby (1,007-7) and Kaelon Black (898-8).
Moore, a former five-star prospect in his first year as a starter as a redshirt sophomore, has passed for 3,280 yards, 28 TDs and 9 INTs.
Oregon always has an excellent rushing attack, and that’s no different this year with Noah Whittington (829-6), Jordon Davison (667-15) and Dierre Hill Jr. (570-5) sharing the workload, but Davison (broken collarbone) has been ruled out.
Malik Benson (41-696-6) has been the Ducks’ steadiest (and healthiest) receiver while Kenyon Sadiq (46-531-8) is one of the best tight ends in college football.
This is, of course, a rematch as these Big Ten foes clashed in the regular season, with Indiana winning 30-20 on the road at Oregon back on Oct. 11.
We waited this long to get to that point as it doesn’t seem the most significant facet of this matchup, given the momentum the Ducks are playing with now, but it is at least relevant. Indiana showed it was up to the task against Oregon’s defensive physicality in that game.
Neither QB had an especially elite performance that day, with Mendoza passing for 215 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and Moore struggling with 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 picks.
It seems likely the defense dictates the tenor of the game again this time around, and whichever QB is steadiest could be the differentiator.
Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Hoosiers 31, Ducks 27
