Fans get a break from the relentless transfer portal talk and news for a couple days for some actual high-stakes college football with the New Year’s bowl games and, of course, the CFP quarterfinals.
No. 2 Ohio State and No. 10 Miami take the spotlight on New Year’s Eve with the first of the four quarterfinals matchups before the rest follow Thursday with No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Michigan State, No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss.
We break down each game and make predictions (trust at your own peril) for the CFP quarterfinals.
(All game times ET; all point spreads via DraftKings)
No. 10 Miami (11-2) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
7:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
It’s probably foolish to put too much weight on one game and extrapolate that forward, but it was such an indelible performance in all the wrong ways watching Miami’s offense get totally stifled by the best team it had played since August.
Miami’s entire resume is propped up by that Week 1 win over Notre Dame — 27-24 at home in a coin-flip game won on a field goal with a little more than a minute left. That’s what got the Hurricanes in the playoff over the Fighting Irish, ultimately. And in the end, that remained the only team in the final regular-season rankings Miami had played.
Because of that, it is hard to ignore what happened in the Hurricanes’ 10-3 first-round CFP win at Texas A&M as they managed just 278 yards (103 passing) and missed three field goals before winning it late.
The Aggies’ defense is a good, top-20 unit. Ohio State’s defense is elite and the best in college football, allowing an FBS-low 8.2 points and 213.5 yards per game.
The reigning national champion Buckeyes held 10 of 13 opponents to 10 or fewer points and didn’t allow more than 16 points in any game, while averaging 34.9 points themselves led by a Heisman Trophy finalist in QB Julian Sayin (3,323 passing yards, 31 TDs and 6 INTs) and one of the best receivers in college football in Jeremiah Smith (80 catches for 1,086 yards and 11 TDs).
Ohio State’s only loss came by 3 points to No. 1 Indiana in the Big Ten championship game. Miami lost to unranked Louisville and SMU teams with QB Carson Beck throwing a combined 6 interceptions in those games.
Those are all the reasons why many are expecting a decisive Ohio State victory, including the oddsmakers who set the Buckeyes as an 8.5-point favorite — the biggest line of any of the CFP quarterfinals.
That said, there is more to consider.
Miami’s defense made its own statement in that first-round CFP win and ranks 10th in yards allowed (281.5 per game) and fourth in scoring defense (13.0 PPG).
Beck has had his ups and downs, but he’s a veteran QB also plenty capable of delivering a big performance in a game that could define his college legacy. In Miami’s final four games of the regular season, as it tried to shake off its second loss and make its case for the playoffs, Beck had 11 TDs and only 1 INT while averaging a tick over 281 passing yards a game.
And freshman Malachi Toney (89 catches for 992 yards and 8 TDs, 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD) is as dynamic as any player in the country and capable of being a great equalizer.
So let’s get to our CFP prediction.
Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Buckeyes 27, Hurricanes 13
Yeah, we just don’t trust Miami coach Mario Cristobal in a big game, or Beck for that matter. Ohio State is a truly dominant defense, Sayin is so poised for a redshirt freshman and we are absolutely unable to shake what we saw from the Hurricanes last round. Guilty.
No. 5 Oregon (12-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
12 p.m. Thursday on ESPN
This is the CFP quarterfinals matchup we’ve been most excited for, because it really feels casual college football fans (even more ardent ones, for that matter) don’t know or believe how good this Texas Tech team has been this season.
That’s not to say Oregon isn’t every bit as good, but the Ducks have been in the spotlight for a while now under coach Dan Lanning.
The Red Raiders were one of the most aggressive teams in the transfer portal a year ago and invested substantial money in bringing in an elite defensive line, led by edge rushers David Bailey (a first-team AP All-American with 13.5 sacks, 17.5 tackles for loss, 13 QB hurries) and Romello Height (8.5 sacks, 10 TFL, 13 QBH) and interior linemen Anthony Holmes Jr. (a second-team All-American with 4.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 7 QBH) and Lee Hunter (3 sacks, 9 TFL).
That front wall is backed up by first-team AP All-American linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who has 117 tackles, 11 TFLs, 7 forced fumble and 4 interceptions among other notable stats (2 rushing TDs, for instance).
Overall, Texas Tech has given up the third-fewest points and yards in college football (10.9 PPG, 254.4 YPG) while being especially stifling against the run (FBS-low 68.46 rushing yards allowed per game).
That’s why all 12 of the Red Raiders’ wins came by 22 or more points. That’s pure dominance.
Texas Tech’s lone loss came 26-22 in mid-October at Arizona State in a game starting QB Behren Morton (2,643 passing yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs) missed due to injury. RB Cameron Dickey had a breakout season, meanwhile, with 1,095 rushing yards and 16 total TDs.
But the Red Raiders didn’t play a team as good as this Oregon squad. They did beat BYU twice (convincingly) and Utah, but this is such an intriguing matchup.
Oregon’ lone loss came 30-20 at home to now-No. 1 Indiana, but outside of that game it hasn’t faced a team anywhere near Texas Tech’s caliber either.
The Ducks average 217.08 rushing yards per game (13th-most nationally) led by a deep backfield with Noah Whittington (798 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 6.9 yards per carry), Jordon Davison (625-13-6.4) and Dierre Hill Jr. (557-5-8.6). So it’s a battle of strengths between these two national title hopefuls.
Oregon also has a projected high first-round draft pick at quarterback (if he comes out) in Dante Moore (3,046 passing yards, 28 TDs and 8 INTs) and arguably the best tight end in college football in Kenyon Sadiq (42 catches for 509 yards and 8 TDs).
Oh, and the Ducks play darn good defense as well — seventh nationally in giving up 271.4 YPG and 10th in points allowed (16.3 PPG).
Interestingly, both of Oregon’s coordinators are now head coaches elsewhere — OC Will Stein at Kentucky and DC Tosh Lupoi at Cal — but have remained with the Ducks through the CFP run.
This is just a prime playoff showdown from any angle.
Oregon is a 2.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Texas Tech 27, Oregon 24
It’s too hard to ignore how the Red Raiders won every game with a healthy starting QB by three touchdowns or more. Oregon is very good, but it doesn’t look quite as good as a year ago. Texas Tech is going to open some eyes Thursday.
No. 9 Alabama (11-3) vs. No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California
4 p.m. Thursday on ESPN
SEC loyalists have wanted to poke holes in Indiana’s incredible two-year run for a while, suggesting the Hoosiers wouldn’t find the same level of success playing an SEC schedule, and other nonsense.
And then Indiana took it straight to the reigning, undefeated national champs in that 13-10 Big Ten championship game win over Ohio State.
Now, the Hoosiers get a really flawed Alabama team that may have peaked mid-season and rallied back for a 34-24 win over a fairly one-dimensional Oklahoma team in the CFP first round. The Crimson Tide’s offensive line has been the much-noted Achilles heel for the team, and what gets lost in Indiana’s success and QB Fernando Mendoza winning the Heisman Trophy is that the Hoosiers have an elite defense.
Indiana gives up the second-fewest points in college football (10.8 PPG) and the fourth-fewest yards (254.4 YPG), including the third-fewest rushing yards (77.62 YPG), and is tied for sixth nationally with 39 sacks.
All of that is a problem or an Alabama team that got held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia in the SEC championship game, just 28 rushing yards in the win over Oklahoma and was held under 100 yards on the ground in five other games.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (3,500 passing yards, 28 TDs and 5 INTs) was a Heisman favorite in the middle of the season, but he wasn’t quite as sharp down the stretch (8 TDs and 4 INTs over the final six games). He’ll need to be ever aware of Indiana safety and second-team AP All-American Louis Moore (6 INTs, 76 tackles).
On the other side, as noted, Mendoza won the Heisman after passing for 2,980 yards, 33 TDs and 6 INTs plus 6 rushing TDs — but more to the point by delivering clutch throw after clutch throw whenever it was truly needed.
This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in college football in Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer and Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, but while DeBoer is actually Nick Saban’s successor Cignetti is quickly asserting himself as arguably the one taking the mantle as most feared coach to go against in the sport (with, of course, some other obvious candidates like Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, etc.).
There’s also the storyline that Cignetti was Alabama’s WRs coach from 2007-11 before starting at the bottom of the ladder at IUP to build his head coaching resume with stops at Elon and James Madison and now Indiana, where he immediately turned one of the most least successful programs in college football history into a giant.
Indiana has wins over two of the other top five seeds on the bracket in Oregon and Ohio State, while Alabama has a split in two games with Georgia.
Indiana is a 7-point favorite.
Prediction: Hoosiers 33, Crimson Tide 24
Look at that picture of Cignetti — or any picture of Cignetti, for that matter — and tell me you want to pick against him. But the bottom line is this Alabama team is flawed and vulnerable, and Indiana is a machine — whether SEC folks are ready to admit it or not.
No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans
8 p.m. Thursday on ESPN
It’s rematch time in the final CFP quarterfinal.
Ole Miss’ only loss of the season came in mid-October at Georgia, 43-35, in a back-and-forth game before the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
There were many questions how the Rebels would respond in the playoffs after head coach Lane Kiffin bolted to LSU, with Ole Miss refusing to let him coach the playoffs after leaving for a rival while instead promoting defensive coordinator Pete Golding to head coach.
But Ole Miss answered those questions rather compelling in a 41-10 first-round CFP win.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. has remained for the playoff run even though he’s already signed on to join Kiffin’s LSU staff, and with that continuity in the play-calling and QB Trinidad Chambliss it’s hard to count out the Rebels against anyone.
Chambliss, one of the best stories in college football after transferring in from Division II Ferris State and seizing the job when Austin Simmons was injured early in the season, has 3,298 passing yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs while rushing for 506 yards and 8 scores.
He was even great in that lone loss to Georgia, passing for 263 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs and rushing for 2 scores.
It’s absolutely possible that Ole Miss becomes the story of these playoffs in the wake of Kiffin’s wild exit and turns the tables on Georgia this time around.
But the Bulldogs and ever-poised QB Gunner Stockton (2,691 passing yards, 23 TD, 5 INTs, 442 rushing yards and 8 scores) have been building momentum as the season progressed and showed it with a one-sided 28-7 win over Alabama in the SEC championship game to avenge their lone loss of the year.
This is a heavyweight bout all the way with the winner getting either Miami or Ohio State.
Georgia is a 6-point favorite.
Prediction: Bulldogs 34, Rebels 31
This has the feel of a classic back-and-forth slugfest. It’s just hard to trust Golding in his second game as a head coach over a multi-time national champion like Kirby Smart.
