The College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night with the first of four opening-round games, as No. 9 Alabama (10-3) visits No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2) in a high-stakes rematch after the Sooners upended the Crimson Tide in the regular season.
The rest of the first-round slate follows Saturday with No. 10 Miami (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1), No. 11 Tulane (11-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) and No. 12 James Madison (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1).
All first-round games are hosted by the home team, and we broke down each matchup with predictions here.
But we have more thoughts on the first weekend of playoff action.
First-Round Game With The Biggest Ramifications
It’s Alabama-Oklahoma on Friday night — for a couple very different reasons.
Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer posted a statement to social media and doubled-down in his press conference this week that he is not interested in leaving Alabama for the Michigan job, but that’s done nothing to quell the buzz and speculation.
The fact that Michigan hasn’t made a hire strongly suggests it believes it can still get DeBoer, especially if Alabama loses Friday night.
After going 9-4 in his debut season last year, if DeBoer gets bounced in the first round of the playoffs to finish 10-4 after a lopsided loss in the SEC championship game to Georgia, Alabama fans might want to help him back his bags for Ann Arbor.
He’s so far fallen short of the impossible standard set by his predecessor Nick Saban and would be under even more immense pressure from the Alabama fan base entering next season if he loses Friday night. Or, he could return to his Midwest roots and be welcomed gratefully by Michigan and its panicked fan base after the ugly ending to Sherrone Moore’s two-year tenure.
It’s hard to imagine DeBoer wouldn’t give the Michigan job real thought if the Tide lose Friday night.
Meanwhile, the winner of this game advances to play No. 1 Indiana, and it will be the SEC’s shot to validate its media mouthpieces (like Paul Finebaum) who believe the undefeated Hoosiers wouldn’t have nearly the same success with a SEC schedule.
Best Upset Potential In The CFP First Round
No. 10 Miami over No. 7 Texas A&M.
Alabama/Oklahoma feels like a coin flip, and with the Sooners a mere 1.5-point favorite in an 8/9 matchup, a Crimson Tide win wouldn’t really qualify as an upset.
Miami over Texas A&M might not seem like a big one either, but with all the divisive debate about the Hurricanes getting into the field over Notre Dame as the final at-large team on the bracket and the general perception that the ACC was weak this year, beating an 11-1 SEC team would be a statement for Mario Cristobal’s program.
Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite at home, but the Aggies seemed to run out of steam late in the season. They fell behind 30-3 at home to a bad South Carolina team before rallying to win, and they then lost their next SEC game 27-17 at Texas.
The Longhorns’ disruptive defense held Texas A&M to a season-low 337 yards (62 fewer than any other game), and statistically at least the Hurricanes are an even tougher challenge and the best defense the Aggies have faced all season (sixth nationally in scoring defense at 13.8 PPG).
Miami won its final four games by an average margin of 27.5 points per game while trying to prove it belonged in the CFP field. After all the backlash the Hurricanes have received for getting in over Notre Dame, now they have fresh reason to prove they deserved the spot.
Most Exciting Player To Watch In The CFP First Round
Miami freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney.
While Miami had the big Week 1 marquee game with Notre Dame and other national TV games, being marooned in the ACC limited some of the spotlight and how much casual college football fans saw the Hurricanes.
And when they were part of the national narrative, quarterback Carson Beck usually was the focal point of discussion.
So this is a prime opportunity for fans to truly get to know Toney, the lightning-fast true freshman who has 84 catches for 970 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus a rushing TD and 2 passing TDs. He earned second-team AP All-America honors and closed the season on a tear with 12 catches for 146 yards and a TD vs. Virginia Tech and 13 catches for 126 yards and a TD (plus 30 rushing yards and a passing TD) vs. Pittsburgh in his last two games.
Here’s a couple clips to whet the appetite before Saturday.
Coach With The Most To Gain in CFP First Round
Ole Miss’ Pete Golding.
Ole Miss prioritized continuity for its playoff push and preempted any distraction (well, further distraction) that would have come from a coaching search following Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU after the regular season, immediately giving the job to its defensive coordinator.
Would Golding have gotten the job if Ole Miss had gone 10-2 or 9-3 and missed the playoffs while facing a more traditional offseason? Hard to say.
He has been a SEC defensive coordinator for eight seasons (five at Alabama and the last three at Ole Miss) so it’s not a shocking career move per se, but would he have gotten interest for any other SEC or big-time head coaching position? Again, hard to say.
So if Golding can lead Ole Miss on a playoff run in the wake of the Kiffin saga, he’d make those questions moot and show that the Rebels made the right call. It would also give him his own currency in recruiting, separate from taking over Kiffin’s program.
If Ole Miss handles Tulane in this rematch (after winning the regular-season meeting 45-10) it would get a rematch with Georgia. It’s not crazy to think the Rebels could beat the Bulldogs in a second opportunity.
This is a potentially defining stretch for Golding.
Best Potential Second-Round CFP Matchup
The game we want to see most is No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech, which will happen if the heavily favored Ducks handle business against James Madison on Saturday.
Oregon’s only loss all season was to now-No. 1 Indiana, while Texas Tech’s only loss came by four points on the road at Arizona State with starting quarterback Behren Morton unavailable due to injury. The Red Raiders dominated in every other game with all 12 of their wins coming by at least 22 points — including a 34-7 beatdown of BYU in the Big 12 championship game.
Both of these teams have the potential to win the national championship, and this matchup would have a semifinals feel in the quarterfinals.
As noted, the winner of Alabama/Oklahoma gets the top-seeded Hoosiers in what will be an intriguing clash either way, so that would be a close runner-up for best second-round matchup.
Next is the winner of Miami/Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State.
And then if Ole Miss beats Tulane, it gets a rematch with Georgia, which won the regular-season meeting 43-35 in Athens.
